| | | |  | | By Eli Okun and Rachel Umansky-Castro | | Presented by |  | | | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | | 
The Supreme Court’s conservative supermajority sounded inclined today to grant President Donald Trump another major expansion of his power. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | SCOTUS WATCH: The Supreme Court’s conservative supermajority sounded inclined today to grant President Donald Trump another major expansion of his power, allowing presidents to fire leaders of independent agencies who have previously had protections from political vicissitudes. In the courtroom: In lengthy oral arguments, many of the justices had tough questions for Amit Agarwal, the lawyer representing fired FTC Commissioner Rebecca Slaughter. The 1935 case Humphrey’s Executor v. United States set a precedent for independent agencies, but Chief Justice John Roberts said the power and remit of agencies like the FTC has grown massively in the intervening nine decades. The precedent is a “dried husk of whatever people used to think it was,” he said. Conservative justices have limited it in recent years, but some want to do away with it entirely, and the Trump administration argues that agency heads unaccountable to an elected president are thus unaccountable to the people. More from WaPo The stakes: Though the Supreme Court’s conservatives have repeatedly allowed Trump to fire government officials on a temporary basis, this is their first time weighing in on the merits of such a case in a full hearing. It’s not clear how expansive a ruling against Slaughter would be: Agarwal warned that “everything is on the chopping block” if the president can fire leaders of multi-member independent commissions. Justice Samuel Alito said he was skeptical that such a wide-ranging outcome would prove true. And some of the conservatives sounded likely to continue shielding the Fed from political interference. From the minority: The three liberal justices, on the flip side, sounded much more amenable to Slaughter’s arguments — and much more worried about another huge step forward for “uncontrolled, unchecked” presidential power, as Justice Elena Kagan put it. “You’re asking us to destroy the structure of government,” Justice Sonia Sotomayor said to Solicitor General John Sauer. Little common ground: Overall, the “questions were relentlessly split along partisan lines,” NYT’s Adam Liptak writes. “Usually, there are at least some surprises.” Playing a significant role in arguments today was last year’s landmark decision granting Trump sweeping criminal immunity for actions he took as president, which helped pave the way for his return to the White House. The possible impact: Via Nicholas Bednar and Todd Phillips, the NYT runs down the more than two dozen other federal boards and commissions previously insulated from at-will firings by the White House, which could be vulnerable depending on how the justices rule. They range from low-profile boards to significant agencies like the CFTC, FERC and the NLRB. More from SCOTUS: The court today declined to take up a book ban challenge, in which residents of a Texas county protested the removal from public libraries of books about slavery, transgender issues and more. That will allow the absences to stand. More from USA Today Good Monday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop us a line at eokun@politico.com and rumansky-castro@politico.com.
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1. BIG TEXAS SHAKEUP: Democrat Colin Allred ended his Texas Senate campaign today, a sudden shift from one of the race’s frontrunners as Rep. Jasmine Crockett is likely to enter the primary today. That could pave the way for a matchup between Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico for the nomination. Allred told The Dallas Morning News’ Gromer Jeffers Jr. that he wanted to avoid “a long, drawn out, brutal primary and runoff.” Instead, Allred will run to return to the House, teeing up a bid in the new 33rd District that could set up a different primary clash — with Rep. Julie Johnson, who isn’t backing down. That’s just the latest instance of musical chairs triggered by Texas Republicans’ deeper partisan gerrymander.
More midterms moves: The Save America Movement, a group of anti-Trump former Republicans, plans to spend up to $100 million to try to flip some 60 House seats to Democrats, POLITICO’s Andrew Howard scooped. SAM says it’s taking a different approach from the DCCC’s “insufficient” strategy, planning to spend earlier in the cycle. … Virginia state Del. Sam Rasoul announced an exploratory committee for a potential congressional run if Democrats push through a gerrymander, per Cardinal News. Primary colors: California Republicans are “demoralized” and at odds internally in the wake of Democrats’ gerrymander, a counter to Texas, as GOP Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim run against each other, POLITICO’s Jeremy White reports. Meanwhile in Colorado, state Sen. Julie Gonzales announced that she’ll primary Democratic Sen. John Hickenlooper, the latest younger progressive to challenge an incumbent senator, Colorado Public Radio’s Bente Birkeland reports. Survey says: The latest Yale Youth Poll has some fascinating results — and good news for Democrats. Unlike this spring, when a majority of college-aged voters approved of Trump’s job performance, he’s now underwater with voters 18-22, 23-29 and 30-34 by 30, 34 and 36 points, respectively. But but but: Among voters of all ages, Democrats lead on the generic congressional ballot by just 2.5 points. Also interesting: The survey finds that young voters are not likelier than others to hold views that align with the “manosphere,” nor is there much indication of a specifically young male “loneliness epidemic.” But young voters are more ideologically polarized than older voters — more liberals, many conservatives, fewer moderates — and significantly more anti-Israel. 2. THE BRAVE NEW WORLD: “Trump Says He’ll Sign Executive Order Curbing State AI Rules,” by Bloomberg’s Hadriana Lowenkron and Skylar Woodhouse: “Trump said he would approve an executive order this week establishing ‘ONE RULE’ on artificial intelligence aimed at limiting state-level policies regulating the technology. … A draft of a potential order seen by Bloomberg Government last month would allow the Department of Justice to sue states over AI regulations it deems unconstitutional and threaten funding cuts to states with laws considered too burdensome or restrictive.” 3. DO AS I SAY, NOT AS I DO: Trump has accused his political opponents of mortgage fraud to try to put them behind bars or out of work, but ProPublica’s Justin Elliott and colleagues revealed that Trump once did roughly the same thing of which he’s accused New York AG Letitia James and the Fed’s Lisa Cook. They found that in 1993 and 1994, Trump got mortgages for two Florida properties and signed records stating that each would be his main residence. Instead, he apparently lived in neither and rented them out. Experts say this behavior “is often legal and rarely prosecuted” — but it’s the same kind of thing for which Bill Pulte has gone after James and Cook. The White House responds that the mortgages were from the same lender: “There was no defraudation. It is illogical to believe that the same lender would agree to defraud itself.” They also said Trump has never broken the law. (He has been convicted on 34 felony criminal counts, but is still appealing.) More on this theme: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said multiple times in 2016 that troops will not follow illegal orders, as he warned against then-candidate Trump’s comments to the contrary, CNN’s Andrew Kaczynski revealed. And AG Pam Bondi said in a court filing just last year that military officers do not have to carry out illegal orders, NYT’s Adam Liptak reports. Nine years later, Hegseth and Trump are now leading an intense campaign against Democrats who issued similar warnings. The White House rejects the comparison, telling CNN that “the military already has clear procedures for handling unlawful orders, but seditious Democrats … sowed doubt in a clear chain of command.”
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| | | | 4. BLEEDING CUTS: “UN cuts its aid appeal for 2026 despite soaring need,” by Reuters’ Emma Farge and Olivia Le Poidevin: “By its own admission, the $23 billion U.N. appeal will shut out tens of millions of people in urgent need of help as falling support has forced U.N. agencies to prioritise only the most desperate. … A year ago, the U.N. sought some $47 billion for 2025 - a figure that was later pared back drastically as the scale of aid cuts by U.S. President Donald Trump as well as other top Western donors such as Germany began to emerge.” 5. CARIBBEAN FALLOUT: Congress plans to withhold a quarter of Hegseth’s travel spending budget, via the National Defense Authorization Act, until the Pentagon turns over unedited videos of its strikes on alleged drug boats, POLITICO’s Leo Shane III and colleagues report. Meanwhile in Caracas, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is resisting U.S. pressure to step down despite the military buildup in the Caribbean, WaPo’s Ana Vanessa Herrero and colleagues report from interviews with people close to his administration. He has ramped up security and grown worried about U.S. attacks, but Maduro has continued to be “in good spirits” in public and private, and his inner circle remains intact. 6. ON THE HILL: Ahead of a Senate floor vote this week on extending enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies, Republicans are likely to reject Democrats’ proposal without offering one of their own, Semafor’s Burgess Everett scooped, though they haven’t made a final call yet. There are plenty of potential health care ideas in the offing, but in this crucial week for the expiring credits, Republicans in both chambers remain divided over next steps. “[T]here is no consensus or real momentum around any of the flurry of proposals flying around Capitol Hill right now,” NOTUS’ Daniella Diaz and Em Luetkemeyer report. The latest ideas: Sens. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and Bill Cassidy (R-La.) are pitching a plan to expand health savings accounts instead of extending Obamacare subsidies, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney reports. Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) has an idea to keep the subsidies going another two years with added reforms, with the support of Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Punchbowl’s Andrew Desiderio and colleagues report. The impact: Some Republicans worry that without a plan in place, their rejection of Democrats’ extension will simply lead premiums to leap for many Obamacare recipients — and trigger a political backlash against the GOP, WSJ’s Natalie Andrews and colleagues report. Swing-district Republicans could bear the brunt of voters’ anger if no plan emerges, as AP’s Marc Levy and Kevin Freking document from Allentown, Pennsylvania. And it’s not just the premiums: Many Obamacare deductibles will also jump next year as fewer medical bills get covered, leading even some eligible people to consider dropping their insurance, NYT’s Reed Abelson reports. The bigger picture: Health care prices, of course, are just one piece of the broader cost-of-living concerns that are top of mind for many Americans. And Republicans are concerned about the fallout. Populist Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) told Semafor that Trump’s working-class support “is at risk” if D.C. doesn’t deliver more to improve people’s lives. And from health care to tariff rebate checks, the party is struggling to land on consensus legislative plans that could tackle the affordability crisis, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney and colleagues report. One to watch: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer will lead Senate Democrats today in introducing a resolution condemning Nick Fuentes, Tucker Carlson, Kevin Roberts and Paul Ingrassia over antisemitism, per Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod.
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The event will be in-person and streamed live, and participants can request to join here. | | | | | 7. WAR AND PEACE: As he went to London to meet with European leaders, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Bloomberg’s Daryna Krasnolutska and Olesia Safronova that negotiations have yet to produce a breakthrough on talks of ceding territory. After meetings across Europe today and tomorrow, “we will have our joint vision,” Zelenskyy said. “And I am ready to fly to the U.S. if the president is ready for such a meeting.” Nobel Peace Prize watch: “M23 rebels entrench their rule in east Congo even as Trump claims peace,” by Reuters’ David Lewis and colleagues in Goma, Democratic Republic of the Congo: “Trump says he has ended the long war in eastern Congo. But despite signing peace deals, Congo’s M23 rebels have tightened their grip on power by enlisting more soldiers, building a parallel administration and seizing mines rich in critical minerals. Experts say there’s a chance Congo faces an enduring fracture.” Middle East latest: Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu will travel to the U.S. to meet with Trump on Dec. 29 to discuss future plans in Gaza, The Times of Israel’s Lazar Berman reports. It’s Netanyahu’s fifth trip to the U.S. since Trump returned to office, but the first since the ceasefire was struck. | | | | Sponsored Survey WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU: Please take a 1-minute survey about one of our advertising partners. | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | Brooke Singman bumped into Jessica Simpson at the airport this morning, and told her about wearing Simpson’s designer shoes for her bridal shower. Karoline Leavitt’s nephew’s mom will be released from an immigration detention center in Louisiana on bond, a judge ordered today. PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — D.C. Police Chief Pamela Smith is stepping down from her position at the end of the month, Mayor Muriel Bowser announced. Smith has led the department for two years, and cited family reasons for her departure in an interview with Fox 5’s Steve Chenevey and Sam Kosmas. TRANSITIONS — Bill Steiger will be CEO of Malaria No More. He previously worked at the George W. Bush Institute and is a USAID alum. … Brian Klemesrud is joining SKDK as chief creative officer. He’s a longtime Democratic political admaker. … … Amy Acton’s Ohio gubernatorial campaign is adding Maggie Boyle as digital director, Jordan Hawkins as political director, Adelaide Bullock as comms director and Jessie Burton as Ohio finance director. … Jeff Sadosky is now head of U.S. government and public affairs at Shopify. He previously worked at Applecart. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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