| | | |  | | By Ali Bianco | Presented by United for Cures | With help from Eli Okun Good Wednesday morning — and happy New Year’s Eve. This is Ali Bianco, hitting your inboxes to close out 2025. Send me your New Year’s resolutions. YEAR-END NOTE: A big thank you to all of our readers who have taken the time to read our coverage over the last year. We’re grateful for all of you and will keep making Playbook your go-to read first thing in the morning in 2026.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
Zohran Mamdani is entering into political power just as the national affordability crisis over health care that Democrats have been warning about is coming to fruition. | Heather Khalifa, File/AP | THE NEXT LEFT: On the last day of 2025, two of the biggest driving forces of Democratic politics are converging: the reality of affordability — both for the candidates who champion it and the voters who feel it personally. In a split-screen moment for the ages, the Covid-era enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies are expiring today. And at midnight, Zohran Mamdani — a rising star of the Democratic Party who made affordability his brand — will be sworn in as the next mayor of NYC. Affordability has cemented itself as 2025’s word of the year, and that’s in no small part due to Mamdani. At the start of this year, many saw the avowed democratic socialist, not yet 34-year-old, backbench state assemblymember as a great social media campaigner, but there were doubts then that he would become anything more. Those doubts aged like milk as Mamdani’s momentum proved unstoppable — toppling the campaign of a generational name in New York politics and taking his platform to lower the cost of living across the city. As his victory proved decisive, Mamdani joined the cult-figure ranks of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) among progressives. It’s Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez who will help inaugurate Mamdani in the public ceremony at City Hall tomorrow. And Mamdani’s razor-focus on cost of living hasn’t wavered since the election. While the mayoral transition can usually prompt a reckoning over what can be realistically achieved while in office, Mamdani’s transition has refused to pare down the major goals that made up his campaign, as N.Y. Mag’s David Freedlander captured in his massive profile this week. So it’s a bit ironic, or maybe fitting, that Mamdani is entering into political power just as the affordability crisis over health care that Democrats have been warning about is coming to fruition, with millions set for skyrocketing costs of coverage. Starting today around 22 million people enrolled in health care plans through the ACA marketplace, about 92 percent of all enrollees, will see their tax credits run out — if they haven’t already, per CNBC. Premiums were already set to hike because of higher prices, but without the subsidies, premiums are going to rise by 114 percent on average, according to an analysis earlier this year by KFF. Some examples are even more extreme: “A 60-year-old couple with a household income of $85,000 could see their annual payments rise by more than $22,600 from a baseline of $7,225 this year,” as the Economist puts it. At least a dozen states are working to mitigate the skyrocketing premiums, but their efforts can go only so far, POLITICO’s Alice Miranda Ollstein and Natalie Fertig report. There have been a few experiments and reallocations of money in some states to offset costs, but by and large many states don’t have the extra funds to cover health care at this scale. The most affected areas span from Wyoming to West Virginia to Florida. New York, on the other hand, may see the smallest increases overall — but even then, the premiums for many will double. Let’s not forget that the fight over subsidies is also what sustained the longest government shutdown in history. It was 40-plus days of Democrats and Republicans trading arguments about whether it was necessary to immediately act to prevent the subsidies from expiring. And while that was happening, Mamdani and his fellow off-year candidates pushed through an affordability message and won their elections. When these issues converged in November, they seemed to define the terms of a potential Democratic comeback. The 2025 election buoyed Democrats’ hopes, and set off calls from both ends of the party’s spectrum to embrace affordability. The messaging of cost of living connected to the expiring ACA tax credits will no doubt be the drumbeat of Democratic leadership heading into 2026. Put together there are echoes, as many pundits have mused this year, of Democrats confronting their own Tea Party-style change. This idea has been floated several times over the years, including when President Donald Trump first came to power. But undoubtedly, Mamdani’s rise as a democratic socialist has bolstered other progressives across the country — and it’s shaping up to be an interesting primary season in 2026 as seasoned party candidates face significant challenges from their left. It’s all the more cyclical, remembering that the original grassroots Republican movement in the aughts came about, in part, as a protest of the ACA. What comes next: The subsidies will get a three-year extension vote in the House once Congress is back in session starting next week. And Mamdani will take his oath of office at midnight, in the abandoned subway station under City Hall. POLITICO’s Nick Reisman and Joe Anuta are out with a must-read this morning on the importance of the mayor’s first 100 days, and everything that could go wrong as Mamdani comes face to face with the limits of his power. “Mamdani’s ambitious — and costly — platform was predicated on the idea that a left-leaning mayor can effectively lead a city that often appears ungovernable,” Nick and Joe write. “Any hiccup threatens to unravel his lofty goals of free child care, bus service and government-run supermarkets. … The challenges facing Mamdani will begin immediately.”
| | | | A message from United for Cures: The United States leads the world in lifesaving medical research, and Americans benefit from its advances daily. Diagnoses that were once death sentences are now treatable and even curable. And more progress comes every year. We can't lose our leadership now. Millions still need cures — which means they still need federally-funded medical research that leads to more treatments, more cures, and more lives saved. Support Cures. Increase federal funding for lifesaving medical research in FY26. | | | | 9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR 1. WITH THE STROKE OF A PEN: Trump issued his first two vetoes of his second term, batting down bipartisan bills regarding a Colorado water pipeline and control of a small part of the Everglades, per CBS. In the Florida case, Trump cited policy concerns but also indicated that this was payback for the Miccosukee Tribe having “sought to obstruct reasonable immigration policies.” And in Colorado, his veto kicked up a political firestorm: Democrats accused Trump of enacting revenge on the state for refusing to release Tina Peters, who was convicted on state charges related to granting unauthorized access to voting machines. And Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) lashed out at Trump too, while saying she hoped this wasn’t political retribution. “I must have missed the rally where he stood in Colorado and promised to personally derail critical water infrastructure projects,” she said in a harsh statement, per 9News’ Kyle Clark. “My bad, I thought the campaign was about lowering costs and cutting red tape.” 2. THE DRUMBEAT OF WAR: Almost two weeks later, the Coast Guard is still going after the Bella 1 oil tanker, waiting for the White House to OK a seizure — but now the ship seems to have painted a Russian flag on its side, per the WSJ. If it is actually newly registered in Russia, that could complicate U.S. efforts to take it over. Meanwhile, the Coast Guard is continuing to seize people on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean and Pacific at the same clip as in 2024, which has typically been a valuable intelligence-gathering approach, NYT’s Carol Rosenberg reports. But with the Trump administration’s focus shifting from seizures and low-level prosecutions to lethal strikes, “the once steady stream of federal trafficking cases is drying up.” More in Venezuela: The Treasury Department slapped new sanctions on several people and companies in Venezuela and Iran, accusing them of ties to weapons trading, per Bloomberg. And in the wake of reports that the CIA attacked an alleged drug facility on the Venezuelan coast, NBC’s Gabe Gutierrez and Erika Angulo report that some Venezuelans also saw “an unexplained explosion” earlier this month, and they now wonder if it was connected to the U.S. pressure campaign. The year that was: From more than 300 interviews, NYT’s Adam Entous has a major look at how the U.S.-Ukraine relationship frayed under Trump as “factions in the White House and Pentagon bled the Ukrainian war effort.” Among the revelations: During the transition, Trump’s team tried and failed to get permission from Joe Biden to start talks with Russia, so instead Trump had Steve Witkoff open a secret back channel with Moscow. Once in office, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth restricted some munitions from being sent to Ukraine. And though Trump grew frustrated with Russian President Vladimir Putin, he had an unexpected bonding moment with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy over the beauty of Ukrainian women. Syria latest: Over the last couple of weeks, the U.S. and allies launched airstrikes that killed seven Islamic State members and captured 18 more, U.S. Central Command said, per Bloomberg. 3. IMMIGRATION FILES: ICE’s coming rapid-recruitment strategy to beef up its ranks — self-described as a “wartime” plan — will be a $100 million effort to target fans of guns and the military, WaPo’s Drew Harwell and Joyce Sohyun Lee scooped. The agency wants to place targeted ads, including with “geo-fencing,” to get people who have attended UFC fights or NASCAR races, for instance, or gone to gun shows, plus big spending on Snapchat and Rumble ads to reach people who follow conservative influencers and streamers. In the courts: A federal judge said records indicated that top Justice Department leaders like Deputy AG Todd Blanche did get involved with the effort to prosecute Kilmar Abrego Garcia after they mistakenly deported him, despite federal officials’ claims in the court to the contrary, NYT’s Alan Feuer reports. That “raised serious questions about whether the Justice Department had misled Judge Waverly D. Crenshaw Jr.” … Another federal judge temporarily paused the Trump administration’s cancellation of Temporary Protected Status for some 300 South Sudanese, per AP’s Safiyah Riddle and Charlotte Kramon. Tit for tat: Burkina Faso and Mali last night both barred Americans from traveling there, as payback for Trump including citizens from both countries in his far-reaching travel bans, AP’s Baba Ahmed reports from Bamako. More immigration reads: “One Lawyer’s Standoff With Trump’s Deportation Machine,” by NYT’s Jonah Bromwich … “Border czar Tom Homan didn’t receive normal background check during bribery probe,” by MS NOW’s Carol Leonnig and Ken Dilanian … “Chicago Under Siege: How Operation Midway Blitz Changed Our City,” by Block Club Chicago’s Francia García Hernández and colleagues
| | | 4. ALL EYES ON MINNESOTA: HHS announced yesterday that it’s pausing all federal child care money to Minnesota, the latest twist in the Trump administration’s crackdown over a big fraud scandal in the state, per NBC. Republicans said it was a crucial step to make sure money wasn’t being misspent, while Gov. Tim Walz accused them of “politicizing the issue to defund programs that help Minnesotans.” And as the administration especially targets Somali immigrants in the state, DHS said it will review immigration cases of Somalis and people from several other countries to look for fraud — and potential citizenship revocation if it’s found, Fox News’ Jasmine Baehr and Bill Melugin scooped. The power of Nick Shirley: “An Intense White House Response From a Single Viral Video,” by NYT’s Ken Bensinger and Ernesto Londoño: “A video purporting to expose extensive fraud at child care centers in Minnesota shows the relationship between the Trump administration and self-described citizen journalists.” Cause for skepticism: At one of the centers Shirley claimed was empty — and thus fraudulently receiving money to care for kids — “security footage shows various people throughout the day dropping off young children” that same day he visited, CBS Minnesota’s Conor Wight reports. The footage shows Shirley appearing to lie about why he’s there and staff refusing to let him in because he was a stranger accompanied by people in masks. Of close to a dozen centers Shirley mentioned, Wight found all but two have active licenses and have been subject to recent visits by state regulators. 5. BIG REDISTRICTING READ: Playbook’s Adam Wren and POLITICO’s Andrew Howard are out with a 10,000-word story on this year’s gerrymandering wars. They were kicked off by Trump’s unprecedented effort to seize House seats through widespread mid-decade redistricting, a plan masterminded by James Blair and Adam Kincaid and first dreamed up as far back as the transition. Adam and Andrew have scoopy details inside the rooms where it happened, everywhere from the Oval Office to state legislators’ living rooms as they faced threats to the unexpectedly fierce Democratic response, as Trump’s bare-knuckled political brawling collided with the raw moment after Charlie Kirk’s killing. In the end, Republicans’ gambit seems to have netted them only a small advantage compared to their initial dreams. But Kincaid, executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, remains confident (to say nothing of the Supreme Court’s looming role): “Having done this redistricting thing for a while now, one thing that I am well aware of is that Democrats are very good at declaring victory prematurely.” 6. THE EPSTEIN FILES: “The Incident That Prompted Trump to Ban Epstein From Mar-a-Lago’s Spa,” by WSJ’s Joe Palazzolo and colleagues: “Jeffrey Epstein wasn’t just a frequent visitor to Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The club was also sending spa employees — usually young women — to Epstein’s nearby mansion for massages, manicures and other spa services … The house calls went on for years, even as spa employees warned each other about Epstein … They came to a halt in 2003, after an 18-year-old beautician returned to the club from a house call to Epstein and reported to managers that he had pressured her for sex … “A manager sent Trump a fax relaying the employee’s allegations and urged him to ban Epstein, some of the former employees said. Trump told the manager it was a good letter and said to kick him out.” The White House responded that the Journal was “writing up fallacies and innuendo in order to smear President Trump.” The president has denied any Epstein-related wrongdoing, and there’s no evidence he participated in Epstein’s trafficking. … Meanwhile, the number of Epstein files the Justice Department is sifting through now totals some 5.2 million, NYT’s Devlin Barrett scooped. They’re trying to pull 400 attorneys to work on this effort, which could take a few more weeks. 7. JUDICIARY SQUARE: “Court allows Trump-backed cuts to Planned Parenthood’s Medicaid funding in 22 states,” by Reuters’ Nate Raymond: “Tuesday’s 1st Circuit panel, comprised only of judges appointed by Democratic presidents, said the Trump administration had demonstrated it was likely to prevail on appeal in establishing the law was not ambiguous and that Congress had the power to make such changes.” 8. CFPB LATEST: A federal judge said yesterday that OMB Director Russ Vought has to keep the CFPB funded and can’t move forward with his efforts to close the agency while litigation proceeds, per POLITICO’s Aiden Reiter. But the big picture is that the consumer protection agency is still teetering on the brink as the Trump administration slashes funds and seeks to shutter it, Reuters’ Douglas Gillison reports. 9. 2026 WATCH: “Florida school district cut ties with GOP candidate James Fishback in 2022 over sexual misconduct allegations,” by NBC’s Matt Dixon: “One of Florida’s largest school districts cut ties in 2022 with James Fishback, now a Republican candidate for governor, following allegations that he had an inappropriate relationship with a student who was a minor at the time … He broadly called the allegations ‘completely false.’”
| | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | IN MEMORIAM — “Former US Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell, of Colorado, dies at 92,” AP/Denver: He was “known for his passionate advocacy of Native American issues … Campbell, a Democrat who stunned his party by joining the Republican Party, stood out in Congress as much for his unconventional dress — cowboy boots, bolo ties and ponytail — as his defense of children’s rights, organized labor and fiscal conservatism.” — “Tatiana Schlossberg, environmental journalist and JFK’s granddaughter, dies at 35 after terminal cancer diagnosis,” by CNN’s Michael Williams SAD NEWS — Former Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) announced that he’s “been diagnosed with a neurological disease manifesting as dementia” and will retreat from public life, per the Arizona Republic’s Stephanie Murray and Dan Nowicki. “Despite this diagnosis, I remain a very fortunate man,” Kyl said. PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — “Homeland Security seeks emergency demolition of historic buildings in D.C.,” by WaPo’s Paul Schwartzman: “Homeland Security Secretary Kristi L. Noem, in a Dec. 19 memo to the General Services Administration, said the buildings [at St. Elizabeths] ‘constitute a present risk to life and property’ on the 176-acre West Campus, a fortified complex that Homeland Security has been transforming into its new headquarters over the past 15 years.” FUN CLICKER — POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin is out this morning with a 2026 political predictions column that doubles as a multiple-choice quiz. Whom would President Donald Trump tap for a Supreme Court vacancy? Which Senate seats can Democrats flip? Will Noem, FBI Director Kash Patel, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth be first to leave their role? Click through to pencil in your guesses on these questions and more — and see what JMart thinks will happen. PLAYBOOK ARTS SECTION — TV viewership of the Kennedy Center Honors plummeted 25 percent this year amid Trump’s takeover of the institution (and declining ratings all over TV), WaPo’s Samantha Chery reports. HOLLYWOODLAND — After George Clooney slammed Bari Weiss for “dismantling CBS News as we speak,” the editor-in-chief responded with a partly trolling invite to the newly minted French citizen, the N.Y. Post’s Ariel Zilber scooped: “Bonjour, Mr. Clooney!” she said. “This is an open invitation to visit the CBS Broadcast Center, where I’m spending the holidays working to relaunch the Evening News with my colleagues.” FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — WHITE HOUSE MOVE: Walker Barrett has been promoted to be an assistant to the president and senior policy adviser for chief of staff Susie Wiles, POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman reports. Barrett, a veteran of Capitol Hill, most recently was senior director for defense policy and a special assistant to the president at the NSC, where he was spared the spring purge of numerous other senior directors. Barrett and Wiles have a long history: They were neighbors when he grew up in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, according to a White House official and two former colleagues of Barrett. — Heather Podesta and the team at Invariant have crafted their annual list of irreverent New Year’s resolutions, which this year include “Prioritize my relationship like Kash” and “See if Keith Olbermann will pay my rent.” Read them here TRANSITION — Joseph Kornhoff is joining the Pentagon Memorial Fund as executive director. He previously worked at the Department of the Army. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Charlie Harris, senior director of membership mobilization at the One Campaign, and Rachel Harris, a veterinarian at Brook-Falls Animal Hospital, welcomed Mavis Louise Harris on Monday in Waukesha, Wisconsin. She joins big sister Violet. Pic … Another pic BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Bullpen Strategy Group’s Jay Boyd HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) … Rep. Hal Rogers (R-Ky.) … Donald Trump Jr. … DNC’s Abhi Rahman … David Wilezol … WaPo’s Josh Rogin, Joel Achenbach and Naftali Bendavid … Pete Souza … Robyn Bryan Jackson of Ford … Angie Yack … APCO Worldwide’s Wayne Pines … Max Pedrotti … Rick Bosh … PsiQuantum’s Chris Estep … Meg Boland … former Rep. Heath Shuler (D-N.C.) … Ronnie Cho … former Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) … Shelby Hartley … Mark Ein … Betsy Barrett … Bloomberg’s Simon Kennedy … Andy Seré … Elliot Mamet … Rebekah Goodheart of Jenner & Block … Afra Abdullah … Martin J. Kady … POLITICO’s David Frazier and Mark Wegner … Shannon Vavra … Meeghan Prunty Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Garrett Ross.
| | | | A message from United for Cures: The United States leads the world in lifesaving medical research—and Americans benefit from its breakthroughs every day. Thanks to federal funding, several forms of cancer that were once death sentences are now survivable. A cure for diabetes is closer than ever. And in the fight against Alzheimer's, two FDA-approved treatments are already slowing disease progression in patients. But we can't afford to lose momentum. Millions of Americans are still waiting for answers—and they need federally funded research to keep cures coming. Sustained federal investment is essential to keeping America at the forefront of lifesaving medical innovation. Support Cures. Increase federal funding for lifesaving medical research in FY26. | | | | | | | | Follow us on X | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Canada Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | |
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