DISPATCH FROM DALLAS: Texas is still Trump country, but the president’s economic policies are starting to sting — and the fallout could hurt Republicans at the ballot box in 2026. Donald Trump took 56 percent of the vote in Texas when he won in 2024, improving his margins from both of his previous campaigns. Republicans also held onto their two-decade majority in the state legislature in the Lone Star State. But as 2025 closes out, polls show growing unrest within the Texas economy, and voters are beginning to blame Trump and Republicans for failing to produce results. “Right now there’s such a deep level of anger about what’s happening,” said Eric Holguín, Texas field organizer for UnidosUS, a nonpartisan civil rights organization that released a poll in November of Hispanic voters’ attitudes. Two-thirds of the survey’s 3,000 respondents nationwide said Trump and Congress aren’t doing enough to improve people’s economic well-being. Among Texas respondents, 55 percent said Democrats do a better job addressing inflation and affordability, while 25 percent favored Republicans. There are signs that Trump’s signature policies are responsible for some of the malaise. Trump’s immigration raids may be hurting the broader Texas economy, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve. The raids have hit permanent residents and foreign students, and the fear has made foreign-born people more likely to miss work and less likely to visit shops and restaurants, the Fed’s Texas Business Opportunity Survey said. About 13 percent of companies reported they were having a harder time finding and retaining workers, while only 2 percent said it was easier, the survey found. Hispanic Texans in the Rio Grande Valley were surprised to see ICE agents raiding local businesses, the AP reported back in July. Many of them voted for Trump and “didn’t realize his deportation campaign would focus on their neighbors.” While Trump relishes taking credit for lowering the price of gas — which fell below $3 a gallon this year — the flip side is low prices for crude oil, which have created a burden in the Texas oil patch. Oilfield employment has been dropping for five months. And the oil industry has gone through a wave of consolidation and cost-cutting that has also decreased jobs. A recent UT-Austin poll found that nearly half of respondents weren’t happy with the state’s economy. The sentiment was even stronger among Hispanics: 57 percent. Republican Party favorability has dampened, too, with 51 percent of respondents viewing the GOP unfavorably, the poll found. To be sure, Texas’ unemployment rate is still lower than the national average, coming in at 4.1 percent compared to 4.4 percent. And plenty of companies are moving to Texas to take advantage of low taxes and cheap energy. GOP Gov. Greg Abbott is leaning into that narrative as he prepares to run for a fourth term. “Texas is the reigning and undisputed champion for doing business in the United States of America,” he said in a statement this month. Still, the poll numbers — particularly among Hispanic voters — should grab every politician’s attention. Hispanic Texans make up about 40 percent of the state’s population, roughly even with the Anglo population. Hispanics in Texas have historically voted for Democrats, but Trump picked up 55 percent of their vote in 2024. If his support wanes, it could throw a wrench in Republican plans to hold onto Congress by gerrymandering the federal House districts in Texas. That plan, which Abbott pushed through the state legislature even after Democrats staged a dramatic protest, aims to claw five districts into Republicans’ column — each of which have a Hispanic-majority population. Hispanic voters are feeling buyer’s remorse about Trump, particularly on the economy, said state Rep. Ramon Romero, a Democrat who heads the statehouse’s Mexican American Legislative Caucus and is among the parties challenging the congressional map. “The Latino community is super upset that somebody who’s got a business acumen, supposedly, doesn’t really know how to keep the economy going, and it’s because of all the partisanship that he’s exhibited,” Romero said. And while Trump flipped some predominantly Hispanic counties in the Lower Rio Grande Valley, voters there also supported Democrats for state and local offices. “I think Hispanic voters are looking for someone who’s going to take their needs seriously,” Holguín said.
| 
No comments:
Post a Comment