| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco and Makayla Gray On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Dasha discuss Donald Trump’s sudden shift of tone on immigration … and what the president may have in store for Iowa this afternoon.
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| Good Tuesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, impressed by how quickly snow can turn to impossible-to-shovel concrete in this beautiful city. The latest: Federal government offices are still closed … D.C. schools are still closed … and the weather forecast suggests it may never be warm again. Get in touch. In today’s Playbook … — How Trump lost faith in Kristi Noem and Greg Bovino. — Changing the subject? We got the juice on what Trump will say to voters in Iowa. — Plus: 17 experts take you deep inside a post-NATO world.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
Greg Bovino speaks during a news conference in Minneapolis on Tuesday, Jan. 20. | Angelina Katsanis/AP Photo | TIRED OF SO MUCH WINNING? Federal agents will begin departing Minnesota today after Trump’s sudden, dramatic gear shift on immigration. And among them will be Border Patrol chief Greg Bovino, whose days strutting blue-city streets in his faux-military coat seem to be over, per The Atlantic. His boss, DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, has also been sidelined, and a new sheriff — border czar Tom Homan — is headed to Minneapolis today for clear-the-air meetings with local Democratic leaders. Noem alone: For Noem, it’s nothing short of a public humiliation; pushed aside from her department’s highest-profile operation following the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti — and following her ill-judged response. Homan “will report directly to me,” Trump announced on Truth Social, and the message could hardly have been clearer. (White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt insists Trump retains full confidence in Noem.) Noem was already skating on thin ice, POLITICO’s White House and immigration policy reporter Myah Ward messages Playbook to say, with rumors having circled for months that she was facing the axe. (See Myah’s story from December here.) But administration officials are unsure this latest controversy will prove the final straw — especially given Trump’s determination never to bow to opposition clamor. At least 145 House Dems have now signed a petition to impeach Noem, which will presumably work in her favor. Oh to be a fly on the wall: The NYT reports Noem asked to see Trump in person following yesterday’s announcement, and spent two hours in the Oval Office last night along with her top aide, Trump’s former campaign chief Corey Lewandowski. “Trump did not suggest during the meeting that either Ms. Noem’s or Mr. Lewandowski’s jobs were at risk,” NYT’s Tyler Pager and Hamed Aleaziz report. … POLITICO’s Eric Bazail-Eimil has the latest on Noem’s future So will deputy heads roll instead? ”A lot of DHS personnel are hoping this is it for Lewandowski,” an administration official tells Myah. “He’s far easier to push out [than Noem] because he’s just an ‘SGE’ [Special Government Employee].” He certainly has plenty of enemies. Even if Noem stays in post, one administration official tells Myah, yesterday’s shakeup was a clear rejection of “Noem and Lewandowski’s tactics.” “It’s very noteworthy,” another person close to the administration adds. “In a crisis situation, leaders don't like to pull people out or change things — particularly Trump — because it looks like you're giving in, or have lost confidence. But I think this is a very good move. It needed to be done.” Indeed, the sidelining of Noem — and reported demotion of her close ally Bovino — looks like a repudiation by the White House of the flashy, made-for-TV posturing that has been a hallmark of the Trump 2.0 immigration clampdown. Witness the elevation of high-profile border force patrols on city streets. Witness Noem posing in front of forcibly shaved (and illegally deported) inmates at the infamous CECOT megaprison in El Salvador. Witness the military-style tactics embraced by Bovino. Or just … witness his famous coat. (More on that here, via the legendary Derek Guy.) The MAGA base lapped all that stuff up. But the American public did not, as the cratering of support for ICE and for Trump’s wider immigration policies show (see the latest polling here via Reuters). Already under pressure on both health care and the cost of living, the White House knows it cannot afford to also cede the ground on immigration, where Republicans normally poll strongest. A change of tactics, and tone, was deemed necessary. CNN reports Bovino has even been stripped of access to his social media feed.
| | | | A message from AHIP: Medicare Advantage saves seniors $3,400 a year. Medicare Advantage provides better health care at lower overall costs than fee-for-service Medicare, along with important extra benefits and a cap on expenses. More than 35 million seniors and people with disabilities choose Medicare Advantage. They are counting on policymakers to keep the bipartisan commitment to protect and strengthen it. Learn more. | | | | The ICE man commeth: The gruff, no-nonsense Homan cuts a very different figure to front the deportation drive in Minnesota, with more than 40 years’ experience on the immigration front line, and with a track record of serving presidents from both sides of the aisle. (Dems, of course, point to that still-unexplained FBI recording hanging over him.) It’s hard to imagine Homan posing for flashy photo ops, or hiring his own TV crew as he struts the streets. His differences with Noem are well documented. Pros and cons: It’s instructive to compare the pair’s response to the killing of Renee Good by an ICE agent earlier this month. Within a couple hours of the shooting, Noem had publicly denounced Good for “an act of domestic terrorism” — an assessment difficult to reconcile with the videos we saw. Homan refused to be drawn on the incident in detail, telling CBS it would be “unprofessional” to pass judgment until an investigation was complete. Noem repeated the exercise this past weekend, immediately claiming that Pretti “attacked” officers and was “brandishing” a weapon.” But again, the videos of what really happened didn’t support that. Trump watched a lot of critical cable news headlines over the weekend — WaPo says criticism from Fox News’ Maria Bartiromo was key — and heard from a lot of unhappy Republicans, including (per the WSJ) Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). By Sunday night, the president was telling WSJ’s Josh Dawsey he was “reviewing everything.” The final straw? CNN’s Brian Stelter notes that on yesterday morning’s “Fox & Friends,” host Brian Kilmeade repeatedly called for Homan to be sent to Minneapolis throughout the course of the show. Homan was deployed 20 minutes later, Stelter writes. The audience of one is still a thing. Take a step back: Of course, this is about much more than the fate of a handful of high-profile political figures. In fact, it’s about more than just Minnesota — although the arrival of Homan, the scaling-back of federal operations and the attempt to rebuild a working relationship with local officials could bring a change in mood after weeks of violent escalation. This is about how the Trump administration approaches its signature domestic policy platform for the remaining three years of this presidency. So far, the direction of travel has been in only one direction — bigger, harder, more. The way the past few days have played out means future ICE and CBP operations may feel very different to what we’ve just witnessed. The Battle for Minneapolis, as The New Yorker bills it, may prove to have been a high water mark of sorts. FOR YOUR RADAR I: Congress is barreling toward a partial government shutdown over Trump’s immigration crackdown even as senators and the White House scramble to find an elusive off-ramp, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney and Meredith Lee Hill report. “Democrats want Republicans to join them in stripping out funding for the Department of Homeland Security from the sprawling package. Yet any changes would require further action in the House, which is out of town until Monday — after a shutdown would start at 12:01 a.m. Saturday.” The latest from POLITICO’s Inside Congress FOR YOUR RADAR II: “Klobuchar delays governor campaign launch as Border Patrol killing upends Minnesota,” by POLITICO’s Elena Schneider and Samuel Benson: “Amy Klobuchar planned to officially launch her gubernatorial campaign on Monday, but has delayed it in the wake of the fatal shooting of a protester by immigration agents in Minneapolis over the weekend.” She’s still expected to launch in the coming days.
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| | | | THE ECONOMY, STUPID TRUMP’S ROAD TOUR: Trump will try to wrest the headlines back toward his affordability agenda today, returning to Iowa for a swing through the Des Moines suburbs. The president is set to visit a local business, give a 4 p.m. Eastern speech on the economy and meet with lawmakers, kicking off what the White House has said will be a weekly excursion across America to tout his economic messaging ahead of the midterms. First in Playbook: The visit, and larger road trip, reflects a bet that his physical presence, more than any specific policy message, will boost turnout among voters who showed up for him in 2024 but are less likely to vote in a midterm election where he’s not on the ballot, POLITICO’s Megan Messerly and Lisa Kashinsky write this morning. What Trump will say: A White House official told Megan and Lisa that Trump will discuss “how this administration has and continues to deliver economic prosperity for the American people, despite whatever contrived scandals the mainstream media and Democrats would rather focus on instead” during the Iowa visit. “Inflation has cooled, economic growth is accelerating, and real wages are up for American workers,” the official said. “President Trump has always been most in his element when he’s interacting with everyday Americans.” What to watch: “I’ll be curious to see not only who shows up to the event of the congressional delegation and declared candidates, but also who Trump chooses to spotlight or elevate from the stage,” Megan texts in to Playbook. “Iowa GOP strategists are also anxiously watching to see whether the president makes any endorsement while he's in Iowa, including in the governor's race.” Whether Trump will stay on message or veer off on a tangent or two (or seven) is also an ever-looming question. The talking points: One of the GOP’s big bets for 2026 is going all in on their tax cuts, a cash surge of $100 billion the party hopes will deliver electoral success this November. The WSJ’s Richard Rubin has a deep dive on the tax cut strategy, and how it relies on an increasingly shrunken IRS to quickly and efficiently pull it off. ALSO ON TRUMP’S MIND: Trump threatened to increase tariffs on South Korea from 15 percent to 25 percent, saying the country is not living up to its end of the trade agreement it brokered last summer, POLITICO’s Daniel Desrochers reports. COMING ATTRACTIONS: The Federal Reserve today kicks off its latest two-day policy meeting on interest rates. Chair Jerome Powell is expected to deliver his usual speech tomorrow, with economists largely predicting no change. This will be Powell’s first public speech since Trump’s DOJ opened its investigation into his conduct — and comes with Trump’s decision on his successor due any day.
| | | | New from POLITICO Introducing POLITICO Forecast: A forward-looking global briefing on the forces reshaping politics, policy and power worldwide. Drawing on POLITICO’s global reporting, Forecast connects developments across regions and sectors — including insight from major global moments and convenings, from Davos and beyond — to help readers anticipate what comes next.
➡️ Sign up for POLITICO Forecast. | | | | | WAR AND PEACE A POST-NATO WORLD?: How should so-called “middle powers” approach the new global order as Trump threatens to shred traditional Western alliances? POLITICO Magazine has picked the brains of 17 different analysts and experts for this must-read piece. Some answers chime with recent speeches from Canadian PM Mark Carney or Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — that Europe must grow a spine, build up its own defense powers and diversify economic ties. Others offer more abstract ideas that throw into question the very future of U.S. dominance. But but but: We’re still a long way from seeing a shift in real world geopolitics, if NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte’s latest comments are any indication. “If anyone thinks here again that the European Union, or Europe as a whole, can defend itself without the U.S., keep on dreaming,” Rutte told the European Parliament in Brussels, per the NYT. Nevertheless: British PM Keir Starmer heads for talks in Beijing today — the first British leader to visit since 2018, and the latest in a long line of U.S. allies to make overtures to China over recent months. But it’s hardly a straight Carney-style snub. POLITICO’s Dan Bloom explains why Starmer is still trying desperately to keep Trump on side. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Trump told Axios’ Barak Ravid that Hamas has located the body of the final Israeli hostage, completing one of the final hurdles to move past the first phase of the Gaza peace deal. Now the pressure is on to get Hamas to turn over their weapons, POLITICO’s Felicia Schwartz and Diana Nerozzi report. The U.S. has suggested it could yet take military action to force the process. LOOMING OVER IT ALL: Trump has received multiple briefings on the state of the Iranian government, which U.S. intelligence reports indicate is weaker than ever, NYT’s Tyler Pager and colleagues report. And his threat of military force is now a genuine option after a U.S. aircraft carrier strike group arrived in the region yesterday. Trump remains mum on his plans, per Axios — but this story is well worth keeping an eye on in the days ahead.
| | | | A message from AHIP:  
| | | | BEST OF THE REST HAPPENING TODAY: A landmark trial is kicking off today over a controversial question of our time: “Are platforms such as Instagram and TikTok causing mental-health disorders?” WSJ’s Erin Mulvaney writes. The trial centers on “a young woman’s claim that social-media platforms built products that fostered addiction in adolescents and caused her a host of mental-health problems. It is the first such case to go to trial as thousands of other similar lawsuits, brought by individuals, school districts and state attorneys general, wait in the wings.” Meanwhile: California Gov. Gavin Newsom said he was reviewing whether TikTok is violating state law by censoring content critical of Trump, per POLITICO’s Tyler Katzenberger. STILL A DEM LITMUS TEST: The debate over Chuck Schumer’s leadership of Senate Democrats is still simmering, POLITICO’s Shia Kapos writes in to Playbook from Chicago. During a debate last night featuring the top three Democratic candidates to fill the shoes of retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), candidates were asked whether they’d support Schumer as leader. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi said: “I’ll hear his pitch.” Rep. Robin Kelly said: “Depends on who’s running against him.” And Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton simply said: “No.” REMEMBER HIM?: Alexander Vindman, the former national security aide who helped trigger Trump’s first impeachment, is officially running as a Democrat in the Florida Senate race to unseat Sen. Ashley Moody (R-Fla.), POLITICO’s Kimberly Leonard reports this morning. “Vindman’s entrance into the race pulls Trump’s agenda and record to the forefront of the Senate contest in Florida, bringing a national focus to a race in the president’s home state.” RETRIBUTION ROUNDUP: Trump has made good on his threat to try to oust Republican state lawmakers in Indiana who blocked his gerrymandering efforts. Greg Walker, one of the Indiana state senators who voted against Trump’s wishes, yesterday saw the president wade into the race to unseat him on Truth Social, backing Indiana state Rep. Michelle Davis. Trump called Walker a “‘RINO’ LOSER” and an “America Last politician.” WHAT THE GOP IS READING: “Under Biden Administration, Justice Dept. Began Examining Ilhan Omar’s Finances,” by NYT’s Glenn Thrush and Annie Karni: “The Justice Department under the Biden administration opened an investigation into Representative Ilhan Omar, Democrat of Minnesota, in 2024 to scrutinize her finances, campaign spending and interactions with a foreign citizen … [The inquiry] appears to have stalled for lack of evidence.” MEDIAWATCH: After Trump’s $500 million cuts to public media last year, things looked bad for small public radio and TV stations across the country. But an outpouring of emergency funding and donations have helped many survive for now, NYT’s Ben Mullin writes. “Others, facing insurmountable budget issues, have resorted to mergers with bigger stations to stay online. NPR and PBS have not gone anywhere.”
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➡️ Learn More about POLITICO Pro | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | WHAT EVERYONE IS TALKING ABOUT — Fraught Washington Post staffers are flooding social media with messages amid widespread reports that mass layoffs are imminent. Others are pleading with billionaire owner Jeff Bezos to intervene, per Status' Oliver Darcy. (Bezos, meanwhile, is currently living it up in Paris at fashion shows, the newsletter reports.) Worrying times indeed for a D.C. institution. The Post did, however, reverse its decision to cut Olympics coverage, per NYT. They’ll now send four journalists to cover the games. DCA CRASH AFTERMATH — Nearly a year after the deadly aerial crash near DCA that killed 67, “federal investigators at the NTSB today will determine the probable cause of the disaster,” per POLITICO’s Sam Ogozalek. “Today’s findings — and recommendations from the NTSB to parties connected to the crash — could kick off a new wave of policy changes tied to the crash. … Expect NTSB board members today to deliver blunt assessments to the FAA and military in discussing the ultimate cause of the crash.” (Sam has more for Pro subscribers.) Meanwhile, the FAA said it’s overhauling its entire internal structure to increase safety, NYT’s Karoun Demirjian reports. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Melissa Toufanian is joining Navigator Research as its new managing director. She previously worked at the Hub Project, and is a Biden and Obama State Department alum. TRANSITIONS — Rachel Hooper is joining New Heights Communications as a director. She previously was at The Leadership Conference. … Ari Goldberg is now comms director for Nova Ukraine. He previously was at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Chief Justice John Roberts … Meredith Kelly of Declaration Media … C-SPAN’s Howard Mortman … Jessica Fink … Kitty Di Martino … Circle’s Jared Favole … Emily Skor of Growth Energy … Kayla Ermanni … Jamal Ware … Nomiki Konst … Matt Lee-Ashley … DLCC’s Will Rusche … Connie Partoyan of Targeted Victory … Ben Owens … Heather Nauert … Lisa Kaplan of Alethea … Akin Gump’s Josh Teitelbaum … Holly Bailey … former Reps. Marilyn Musgrave (R-Colo.), Zack Space (D-Ohio), John Mica (R-Fla.) and Dick Ottinger (D-N.Y.) … Kevin Downey … American Conservation Coalition’s Michael Esposito … Chelsea Sobolik … Rachel Dumke … Scott Backer … Morry Cater Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Garrett Ross.
| | | | A message from AHIP: On a level playing field, Medicare Advantage outperforms fee-for-service Medicare.
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