| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Megan Messerly discuss the latest news out of Minnesota, and how Democrats might respond to the GOP immigration crisis.
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| Good Wednesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, reading reports of a second possible D.C. snow storm this weekend through my (frostbitten) fingers. Do get in touch, especially if you have a couple bags of ice melt going spare. And maybe an ice pick. BUZZY MORNING READ: “RFK Jr. promised a revolution in psychedelic medicine. It hasn’t happened.” POLITICO’s Amanda Chu reports on the growing disenchantment of psychedelic enthusiasts with the Trump administration. WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING: President Donald Trump responded to last night’s foiled attack on Rep. Ilhan Omar at a town hall in Minnesota — and sympathetic he was not. If you didn’t see the shocking video, a man approached Omar as she spoke and tried to spray her with an unknown substance from a syringe. He was swiftly tackled to the ground by security. A shaken Omar shrugged it off and continued the town hall. Fraud squad: Trump was asked by ABC’s Rachel Scott if he’d seen what happened. (Only hours earlier, Trump had verbally attacked Omar — as he frequently does — in a speech in Iowa.) “No. I don't think about her. I think she's a fraud,” Trump replied, per Scott. “I really don't think about that. She probably had herself sprayed, knowing her.” Asked again if he had seen the video, Trump repeated that he had not. “I hope I don't have to bother,” the president of the United States added. Expect some fallout. We should probably brace for another cycle of grimacing GOP politicians claiming not to have seen the president’s comments. (Dems were last night contrasting Trump’s response with President Joe Biden’s condemnation of a failed attack on Lee Zeldin in 2022.) And it’s well worth mulling these stats Capitol Police released yesterday, showing “concerning” behavior toward members of Congress and their families and staff rocketed 57 percent this past year. But any walkback from Trump seems unlikely, given his hostility toward Omar. SO HOW IS THE PRESIDENT’S STATE OF MIND? Who can say for sure? But Playbook must draw your attention to this eye-catching story broken overnight by our POLITICO Europe colleagues, regarding private comments made by a MAGA-friendly EU leader following a recent trip to Mar-a-Lago. “Slovakia’s prime minister told EU leaders at a summit last week that a meeting with Donald Trump left him shocked by the U.S. president’s state of mind, five European diplomats briefed on the conversation said. Robert Fico, one of the few EU leaders to frequently support Trump’s stance on Europe’s weaknesses, was concerned about the U.S. president’s ‘psychological state,’ two of the diplomats said.” And there’s more: “Fico used the word ‘dangerous’ to describe how the U.S. president came across during their face-to-face meeting.” To repeat: Fico is one of the few pro-Trump leaders in Europe. He even spoke at CPAC last year. He is very much not a Trump-basher by nature. Right of reply: The White House called the story “absolutely total fake news.” Fico’s office has (so far) failed to comment. In today’s Playbook … — How should Dems approach the administration’s immigration crisis? — Marco Rubio returns to the Senate for a grilling. We preview the questions he’ll face. — And Fed Chair Jerome Powell gives his first presser since that video.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | Republicans are in disarray on immigration. It’s not a sentence your Playbook author expected to be writing, a year into this presidency — and certainly not after Trump’s clampdown on the border. But four days on from the deadly shooting of Alex Pretti, this is suddenly where we're at. THE PR DISASTER: Trump’s big speech on affordability yesterday was completely overshadowed by the fallout from Saturday’s deadly shooting and the abrupt gear-shift that followed. Chances are his glitzy event today on “Trump accounts” will be too. Policy announcements are not cutting through. His polling on immigration is underwater, and getting worse. And the facts are getting worse: A DHS report sent to Congress yesterday said two federal officers fired bullets at Pretti as he lay on the ground, as CNN’s Holmes Lybrand and colleagues scooped and others matched. And there’s no mention of him “brandishing” his weapon, as officials initially claimed. The blame game: Key figures in the administration are pointing fingers at one another. Trump is blaming Border Patrol chief Greg Bovino. Bovino’s boss Kristi Noem is blaming Stephen Miller, per Axios. Miller is blaming Border Patrol. And Border Patrol is big mad at ICE, per POLITICO’s Myah Ward and colleagues. Needless to say, this is not a good sign. (And while we’re doing Republican civil war … just check out this jaw-dropping X exchange between Stephen Miller’s wife Katie and Ileana Garcia, a GOP state senator in Florida who used to work at DHS.) The MAGA world backlash: Pretty much everyone in conservative circles is unhappy. Influential supporters like Tim Pool are upset at the response to the shooting. Second Amendment supporters are furious FBI chief Kash Patel — and Trump himself — have blamed Pretti for carrying a weapon. (Check out the NRA subtweeting Trump last night.) And hardocre anti-immigration types are furious at Monday’s rollback. Secretary under fire: Noem remains the face of this crisis, and the sight of Senate Republicans washing their hands of the DHS secretary yesterday showed the depth of GOP anger. Two of Trump's bolder Hill critics — Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) — said outright that Noem should go. Senate Majority Leader John Thune refused to voice support. And as POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin told you Monday, concern goes way deeper than what we’re seeing at surface level. Trump says he’s backing her to the hilt. THE CONGRESSIONAL CRUNCH: The proverbial you-know-what is now hitting the fan in Congress, where the administration appeared to be on a glide path to a funding deal before Saturday’s deadly shooting. Now Republicans may have to choose between accepting legal constraints on ICE, or watching the government tip over the shutdown cliff for a second time this Friday night. (Reminder: The last time that happened, it didn’t go so well for the GOP.) So today’s big question: How will Democrats respond to this unexpected shift? Their (largely successful) messaging strategy this past six months has been to pivot back to the cost of living at every opportunity — especially when immigration’s involved. Is it time to “attack the strength,” as Karl Rove would have it? Pollster G. Elliott Morris argues public opinion has reached a “tipping point” on immigration enforcement, and that most people now have highly negative (and, crucially, highly visual) associations with the clampdown. Equally — the cost of living remains Trump’s weakest issue and is still the thing voters care about most. And shutting down the government over immigration funding is always going to be a fundamentally riskier move for Dems than over health care. NEW THIS MORNING — What Senate Dems are reading: A new polling memo from an influential Democratic think tank — now circulating among Democratic senators, and shared first with Playbook’s Adam Wren — urges Dems to “play hardball” over the shutdown and use their "leverage to reform ICE.” ICE breaker: The 1,500-person survey conducted Friday through Monday — so covering the immediate aftermath of the killing of Pretti — found strong public support (58 percent) among likely midterm voters for reining ICE in. The memo states that “bipartisan majorities of voters oppose ICE’s lawless tactics, including detaining U.S. citizens (73 percent), entering people’s homes without warrants (79 percent), and failing to wear clearly identifying uniforms (70 percent).” “Voters want ICE to follow the law and focus enforcement on people who pose a threat to public safety,” writes memo author and Searchlight Institute boss Adam Jentleson, the former chief of staff to Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) and top aide to former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.). “They want to see tangible changes to ICE operations … There is a desire for immigration enforcement that is lawful, reasonable, and effective.” Importantly, from a Dem messaging point of view, more voters preferred reforming ICE than abolishing the agency entirely — by 30 percent to 19 percent. The memo was shared with Schumer’s team last night, a person familiar tells Adam, and they believe it fits with their messaging. We should get more clarity today on exactly how they plan to proceed.
| | | | A message from AHIP: 35 Million Seniors Could See Reduced Benefits and Higher Costs. Health plans welcome reforms to strengthen Medicare Advantage. However, a proposal for flat program funding at a time of sharply rising medical costs and high utilization of care will directly impact seniors' coverage. If finalized, this proposal could result in benefit reductions and higher costs for 35 million seniors and people with disabilities when they renew their Medicare Advantage coverage in October 2026. Learn more. | | | | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — This same Democratic struggle over immigration messaging is also playing out in Minnesota itself, where Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is facing Rep. Angie Craig in a hard-fought Democratic primary to replace retiring Sen. Tina Smith. The pair have tussled repeatedly over immigration, with the more progressive Flanagan attacking Craig over her vote for the Laken Riley Act, and for a GOP resolution expressing “gratitude” to ICE. Craig has pushed back hard against any suggestion she supports the administration’s approach to immigration enforcement. But now a new polling memo shared with POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky shows Flanagan ahead by 13 points, via a GQR survey commissioned by Flanagan’s campaign. Flanagan’s lead widened to 29 points after voters were shown negatives against both candidates, including messaging that hit Craig for her immigration voting record and blamed Flanagan for the state’s fraud scandal. (The survey of 600 likely voters was conducted Jan. 14-20, after the fatal shooting of Renee Good by an ICE agent, but before Pretti’s killing.) It’s a race well worth watching as this debate plays out. See the full polling memo WHILE WE’RE IN MINNESOTA: Border czar Tom Homan said last night his first meetings with local Democratic leaders were “a productive starting point,” which is quite the change of tone from where we were last week. Less positively, ICE just tried to invade Ecuador. Well, kinda. And in a must-read column, Ankush Khardori explores in his latest Rules of Law column for POLITICO Magazine how the administration’s actions in Minnesota could undermine law enforcement across the country. WHILE ALL THIS IS HAPPENING: Trump will valiantly try again to change the subject today — this time with a glitzy daylong celebration of his “Trump accounts,” the $1,000 cash investments for newborns designed to help their long-term prospects. Today’s event at the Mellon Auditorium also features Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, actress Cheryl Hines — who’s married to HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., of course — and MAGA-pilled rapper Nicki Minaj, who might even upstage Trump himself. The president is due on stage at 11 a.m. Empty account: The struggle for the White House, as always, is to cut through the noise. Exclusive Public First polling undertaken this month and shared with Playbook found a majority of Americans (57 percent) had never heard of a Trump Account. And while a further 25 percent said they’d heard of it, they could not explain what it was. Only 14 percent of respondents had heard of a Trump Account, and could actually explain what it was.
| | | | A message from AHIP:  
| | | | MARCO SOLO AMERICA AND THE WORLD: Secretary of State Marco Rubio will testify before his old Senate Foreign Relations colleagues at a 10 a.m. hearing on Venezuela — but senior Democrats tell Playbook they’ll take the chance to push him on every major controversy of the past few months. The last time Rubio was on the Hill was May 2025, so it’s fair to say they’ve plenty to work through. Opening remarks by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), shared with Playbook, begin with decrying the Trump administration for having “traded one dictator for another” in Venezuela, and then go on to lambaste Voice of America cuts, foreign aid cuts, semiconductor sales to China, tariffs, Trump’s approach to Iran and imperialism in Greenland. On Venezuela: Rubio will warn that the U.S. is “prepared to use force to ensure maximum cooperation” from Venezuelan leaders “if other methods fail,” according to prepared remarks previewed by Bloomberg’s Eric Martin. But the most pressing question will be on the timeline for Venezuelan elections, Playbook’s resident expert Ali Bianco writes in. There’s rare cross-party agreement on the committee that democracy must be restored as quickly as possible, though that doesn’t appear to be a priority for the White House. Florida’s lawmakers in particular have drilled this point home — so Rubio’s old pal Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) will be one to watch today. What else to watch for: POLITICO’s Eric Bazail-Eimil tells Playbook he’ll be watching for how Rubio responds to questions about other potential Trump targets in the Western Hemisphere. These could include economic and political measures against Cuba; the U.S. presence in Greenland; and the prospect of strikes against drug cartels in Mexico. And that’s before we get onto perennial geopolitical crises like Ukraine, Iran and Gaza …. It’s all a good reminder of the many, many hats that Rubio wears.
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➡️ Sign up for POLITICO Forecast. | | | | | FED UP QUICK, JEROME, GET THE PRESIDENT: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a news conference at 2:30 p.m. for the central bank’s first interest-rate decision of the new year. But for once, the policy announcement is not the biggest deal today — pretty much everyone expects the Fed will stop cutting rates. And as WSJ’s Nick Timiraos notes, it’s not at all clear when it might restart. Instead, all eyes will be on Powell for anything he says about Trump’s intense pressure campaign to erode the Fed’s independence and reshape it in his vision — a campaign which incorporates the brazen attempt to fire Lisa Cook to the criminal probe into Powell himself. That split screen is why Powell “has simultaneously become one of the most and least interesting people in the news,” as POLITICO’s economics guru Victoria Guida writes in today’s Morning Money. “It’s the new reality for the world’s most important central bank: Trump’s aggressive moves against the Fed, as well as in other areas like trade and energy policy, are dominating investor attention much more than is the Fed itself.” The other big question looming: Who will replace Powell as the next Fed chair? With a decision due any day, the future of the Fed’s policy approach remains up in the air. The trouble for Trump is that among his four finalists (Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Rick Rieder and Kevin Hassett), none very obviously strikes the perfect balance between a willingness to cut interest rates — as Trump demands — and the power to retain credibility as an independent decision-maker, WSJ’s Timiraos and Meridith McGraw write. Elsewhere in the economy: Trump said yesterday he didn’t mind the dollar’s recent decline. On the contrary, “I think it’s great,” he told reporters in Iowa. “The greenback was trading at its lowest level in nearly four years before Trump weighed in on its recent declines. After the president’s remarks, its value sank even further against a basket of foreign currencies,” POLITICO’s Sam Sutton reports.
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| | | | BEST OF THE REST CASH DASH: VP JD Vance will be in Naples, Florida, and Miami today for lunch and dinner fundraisers for the RNC. The confabs have already raked in some $4.2 million, per NOTUS’ Reese Gorman. MUSK READ: “Elon’s back: The tech mogul’s checkbook and platform are galvanizing the GOP,” by POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill and colleagues: “Republicans see his recent donation to a Kentucky Senate candidate as an encouraging sign that [Elon] Musk will make good on his promises to back the GOP, and top House leaders are elated … Recently he has used his 233-million-follower X account to push Senate Republicans to pass the SAVE Act … The campaign has driven a huge volume of calls to member offices.” BIG GERRYMANDERING NEWS: Democrats’ redistricting efforts have hit a major roadblock as a judge struck down Virginia’s constitutional amendment allowing for a congressional redraw, per the Richmond Times-Dispatch’s Michael Martz. His decision will now be appealed to the state Supreme Court — but if it stands, it would be a significant blow to Dems’ efforts to counterbalance Republicans’ own gerrymandering plans across the country. Democrats had hoped to snatch as many as four seats in Virginia; without them, Trump may come out comfortably ahead overall. Speaking of gerrymandering: Trump last night took another step to try to unseat a Republican redistricting opponent in Indiana, endorsing a primary challenger against state Sen. Greg Goode. But as Playbook’s Adam Wren notes, Trump got Brenda Wilson’s title wrong. Goode also claims Wilson actually encouraged him to oppose the new map. WHISKEY TANGO FOXTROT: “Trump’s acting cyber chief uploaded sensitive files into a public version of ChatGPT,” by POLITICO’s John Sakellariadis: “The apparent misstep from Madhu Gottumukkala was especially noteworthy because the acting director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency had requested special permission… to use the popular AI tool soon after arriving at the agency this May. The app was blocked for other DHS employees at the time.”
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➡️ Learn More about POLITICO Pro | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | ITALIAN ICE — Ice (lowercase) in D.C. meant the Italian ambassador had to postpone his grand Olympics party last night. The embassy’s celebration of the Winter Games in Milan Cortina with Warner Bros. Discovery was pushed off to March. First in Playbook: The Trump administration is hoping to use the Olympics to bolster America’s reputation, according to a State Department “Messaging Playbook” obtained by POLITICO’s Nahal Toosi. The document, being circulated among U.S. diplomats this week, says next month’s games in Italy offer a “unique opportunity” to “celebrate American excellence, and strengthen international collaboration.” This is especially important because the U.S. is preparing to host major sporting events such as this year’s FIFA World Cup and the 2028 Summer Olympics, the document notes. U.S. diplomats are urged to amplify messages of support for Team USA shared by Trump. The document also says the games in Italy are a venue to promote the Trump policy goal of ensuring that women and girls can “compete in safe and fair sports” — in other words, blocking trans athletes’ participation in women’s competitions. But it’s ICE (uppercase) that is really roiling the Games. The agency’s crime-focused Homeland Security Investigations unit will be involved in preparations for potential risks at the Olympics — which is actually pretty standard. But the (now global) outcry over ICE’s domestic immigration enforcement stirred up a political/media firestorm in Italy yesterday, with Milan’s mayor calling it an unwelcome “militia that kills,” per POLITICO’s Hannah Roberts. FLOTUS FILES — Melania Trump will ring the New York Stock Exchange’s opening bell this morning to promote the “Melania” documentary premiering tomorrow. ONE TO WATCH — Kid Rock will testify before a Senate Commerce subcommittee today about ticket sales. FLORIDA MAN — Donald J. Trump International Airport? It just got one step closer to reality in Palm Beach. PLAYBOOK ARTS SECTION — Another day, another renowned artist pulling out of the Trump-era Kennedy Center. Composer Philip Glass said he’ll withdraw his Abraham Lincoln-inspired Symphony No. 15 world premiere, scheduled for June — though the National Symphony Orchestra says it’s committed to remaining at the theater, NYT’s Adam Nagourney reports. ALMOST TOO DISGUSTING TO INCLUDE — “More Bad News: A ‘Small Geyser’ of Poop Water Is Flooding Into the Potomac River,” by Washingtonian’s Patrick Hruby: “The collapse of a sewer line carrying wastewater from Virginia and Maryland isn’t affecting DC’s drinking water. But it’s still unbelievably gross.” FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Sarah Phillips is now a senior adviser at comms firm Foretell. She previously was owner and editor of the Scout Guide Alexandria. TRANSITIONS — Katy Summerlin Baron is now senior director of policy comms at the Aerospace Industries Association. She previously worked at NASA and is a Maxar Technologies and Rokk Solutions alum. … Hans Leonard is now a director in BRG’s energy and climate practice. He previously worked at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. … Shawn Johnson is joining Fried Frank as a partner in the firm’s antitrust team. He previously worked at Crowell & Moring. … … Tamzin Astani is now a policy analyst at the Bernhardt Group. She previously worked on the House Budget Committee. … David Huff is joining Amy Acton’s Ohio gubernatorial campaign as finance director. He most recently worked for Jordan Wood’s Maine Senate campaign and is a Harris campaign alum. … Trident GMG has added Gil Connolly and Davey Roberts as directors and Amber Clay as an associate. IN MEMORIAM — Michael Gaynor, president of GoRail, has died after a battle with cancer. “Michael’s body of work was both wide-ranging and deeply impactful,” GoRail wrote. “He was a respected leader, a tireless advocate for freight rail, and a valued colleague to so many across the industry.” Read their full remembrance HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Justice Amy Coney Barrett … Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) … Reps. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), Linda Sánchez (D-Calif.) and Jeff Crank (R-Colo.) … Nick Burns … New York Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado … POLITICO’s Peter King … Robert Satloff of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy … former Reps. Lou Barletta (R-Pa.), Tom Downey (D-N.Y.) and Brian Bilbray (R-Calif.) … Lynnette Johnson Williams of BHJM Communications … Achim Bergmann … Leslie Jones … Frank Purcell … Ted Greener of the Association of American Railroads ... Reginald Darby … John Milewski … CNN’s Jay McMichael … Courtney Subramanian … BOMA International’s Blaine Volpe … Karalee Geis of the White House … Sam Greene … Center for a New American Security’s Daniel Remler … Teresa Ervin … Andy Rosenberg of Thorn Run Partners … Helen Kalla of Lot Sixteen … Matt DoBias Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Garrett Ross.
| | | | A message from AHIP: 35 Million Seniors Could See Reduced Benefits and Higher Costs
Health plans welcome reforms to strengthen Medicare Advantage. However, a proposal for flat program funding at a time of sharply rising medical costs and high utilization of care will directly impact seniors' coverage. If finalized, this proposal could result in benefit reductions and higher costs for 35 million seniors and people with disabilities when they renew their Medicare Advantage coverage in October 2026. Learn more. | | | | | | | | Follow us on X | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Canada Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | |
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