| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | Presented by the National Retail Federation | With help from Eli Okun and Ali Bianco On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Megan Messerly discuss the prospects of U.S. military strikes in Iran … and why Trump is the only president who would flip the bird.
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| Good Wednesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard. Get in touch. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: “Trump has no plans to endorse in final 3 Senate races,” by POLITICO’s Sophia Cai and Alex Gangitano. “There are three sitting Republican senators President Donald Trump has not endorsed for reelection,” they write. “Trump has no imminent plans to change that.” The trio, of course, are Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, Sen. John Cornyn in Texas and Sen. Bill Cassidy in Louisiana. Trump last week called for the electoral defeat of Collins and four other GOP senators who backed a procedural vote to curb his military powers in Venezuela. “But Trump has no plans to endorse against her, and is in no hurry to weigh in on the Texas and Louisiana GOP primaries, according to four people familiar with the White House’s thinking.” In today’s Playbook … — Trump prepares for action in Iran … and Greenland? — One week on, how a fatal ICE shooting became a political air war. — And is Trump’s likely Fed pick too close to Trump?
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President Donald Trump speaks to reporters upon returning to Joint Base Andrews on Tuesday, Jan. 13. | Mandel NGAN/AFP via Getty Images | FIVE-ALARM FIRE: Flushed with success as he spoke to reporters after the raid on Nicolás Maduro’s compound, President Trump fired off threats at five other regimes around the world — Cuba, Colombia, Iran, Greenland and the new administration in Venezuela. Ten days later, a détente has been reached with Colombian President Gustavo Petro, who’s headed to the White House for talks next month. Trump seems happy enough with the new leadership in Venezuela. And the Cuban regime, he believes, is doomed anyway. Which leaves two — Iran and Greenland. And both plotlines are now moving very fast indeed. ON IRAN: Trump’s statements yesterday ramped up the pressure significantly, and there’s little doubt we could see military action in the days ahead. Trump’s stated red line has been the violent repression of the mass protests sweeping Iran — a scenario that is now unfolding right before our eyes. The best-case reports coming out of Iran suggest hundreds have been killed. Others suggest numbers could stretch well into the thousands. Preparations are being made for potential military action. WaPo cites two European officials who say their countries were contacted by the Trump administration on Monday to share intelligence on possible targets in Iran. The National Security Council met Tuesday to prepare options for the president, WaPo reports. Trump has canceled all planned talks with Iranian officials. Still, all the reporting out of the White House suggests Trump has genuinely not made up his mind. A broad range of options are on the table, from what the military calls “kinetic” actions (military moves) through the various “non-kinetic” moves (cyber warfare, tariffs, harsh language). We should hear from the president at 2 p.m. at a bill-signing ceremony. So many wars, so little time: As POLITICO’s Jack Detsch and colleagues reported last night, Trump’s military options are limited by a degree of overstretch. Unusually, the U.S. has no aircraft carrier in the Middle East — it was sent to the Caribbean late last year to support the operation in Venezuela. (Dominating the Western Hemisphere via the “Don-roe Doctrine” is all very well … until you decide to meddle in the Middle East.) Trump’s language has left little room for maneuvering. Yesterday’s Truth Social post urged Iranians to “keep protesting,” despite the deadly threat they face. Help, the U.S. president assured them, “IS ON ITS WAY.” In the current context, that kind of call to arms really has to be backed up with action … and suggests something stronger than secondary import tariffs. The clock is ticking. The case of one arrested protester, Erfan Soltani, has become an international cause célèbre after being highlighted by human rights groups. His family says he was sentenced to death last week, and is going to be hanged today. The case was alluded to by CBS’ Tony Dokoupil in his interview with Trump yesterday. “I haven't heard about the hanging,” Trump told him. “If they hang them, you're gonna see some things … We will take very strong action.” ON GREENLAND: While we wait for a decision from the Oval Office, another part of the White House will be hosting high-level talks today on Trump’s other overseas obsession — the acquisition, by hook or by crook, of Greenland. VP JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio will hold talks today with the foreign ministers of Denmark and Greenland. It’s likely to be a tense conversation. Trump is sounding as bullish as ever, dismissing comments from Greenland’s democratically elected leader, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, that his country wants to remain part of Denmark. “Well, that's their problem,” Trump responded yesterday. “I disagree with him. I don’t know who he is, don’t know anything about him — but that’s going to be a big problem for him.” The big problem for Trump is that his aggressive comments are only pushing Greenlanders further away, POLITICO’s Eli Stokols and Lara Jäkel report from Nuuk, the Greenland capital. And the opposition to forcibly seizing land from a NATO ally is so overwhelming that it’s hard to see Trump pressing ahead. U.S. public support is nonexistent, global opposition is universal and Hill Republicans essentially think the whole idea is bananas. Even this meekest of Congresses would surely rein the president in. A much more likely course of action is some kind of deal — as Europe is starting to realise, my POLITICO colleagues Nicholas Vinocur and Jacopo Barigazzi report. “EU leaders are scrambling to come up with a deal on Greenland’s future that would allow Donald Trump to claim victory without destroying the alliance that underpins European security,” they write. “From proposals to using NATO to bolster Arctic security to giving the U.S. concessions on mineral extraction, the bloc’s leaders are leaning heavily toward conciliation over confrontation.” Senators remain nervous, and last night we saw the presentation of a bipartisan bill designed to prevent the American military from occupying NATO territories, the FT scooped. It's the work of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), one of several Republicans to speak out stridently on Greenland. Murkowski will hold her own talks today with Danish Ambassador Jesper Møller Sørensen, and then join a bipartisan group of senators traveling to Denmark later this week. The Senate’s willingness to bind the president’s hands seems pretty clear, given only last week five Republicans backed a Democratic war powers resolution to block further action in Venezuela. But the White House is fighting back hard on that front, and sounds increasingly confident of flipping back two of the GOP rebels — Sens. Josh Hawley (Mo.) and Todd Young (Ind.) — and winning the final vote later today. A senior White House official tells my POLITICO colleague Alex Gangitano the administration’s messaging — focusing on the success of the Maduro operation — is having “some degree of impact among Republicans.” “Are we eternally optimistic? Sure,” the official said. “Are there members who are certainly not going to modify their position? Certainly. Our hope is we will be successful on this vote.” But but but: A final vote may not even be necessary. POLITICO’s Jordain Carney reports Senate Republicans are also considering a procedural move that could kick the entire motion off the floor agenda. Watch this space. More from POLITICO’s Inside Congress
| | | | A message from the National Retail Federation: Fair and open trade is a topic of discussion among global retail leaders at NRF 2026: Retail's Big Show. Retailers need predictable and reliable supply chains. Trade certainty helps retailers continue to serve consumers with products they want and at prices they want to pay. NRF is advocating for strategic trade policies that protect American families, workers and businesses. Learn more. | | | | COLD AS ICE SEVEN DAYS LATER: We’re now one week on from the deadly shooting of 37-year-old Renee Good by an ICE agent in Minnesota, and the fallout continues to dominate discourse in D.C. and way beyond. What’s striking is the degree to which both sides want to talk about this incident. Liberals are genuinely outraged by what happened, and want to see criminal charges pressed and ICE reined in. But conservatives aren’t trying to change the subject — far from it. The White House has leaned in hard since the moment the shooting happened, with DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and Trump himself both backing the ICE agent to the hilt. Basically, conservatives see this as a straight law and order issue — and believe Dems are once again on the wrong side of the argument. Outside of the echo chambers, polling suggests conservatives might actually be losing the argument. Puck’s Peter Hanby notes that ICE’s public support has been falling for months. Polls also show most people think Good’s shooting was not justified. And to the extent that Joe Rogan is a barometer of anything, he heavily criticized both the shooting and the wider ICE enforcement actions on his podcast this week. The endless videos of rough-handed ICE tactics that activists are posting online appear to be having an effect. In this context, the current stand-off in Congress over DHS funding makes sense: Dems believe they now have public opinion on their side. Other funding packages are being waved through — but DHS now looks set to go down to the wire. Dems want new restrictions on how ICE operates as the price of continued funding, POLITICO’s Jennifer Scholtes and colleagues report. There’s also discussions about potentially canceling the House’s recess the last week of January as the end-of-month funding deadline looms, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill reports. WEAPONIZATION WATCH WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN: Trump’s grievances with Jerome Powell aren’t quieting down — despite rising concerns within his party and the economic world about the DOJ investigation into the Fed chair. (“That jerk will be gone soon,” Trump said in Detroit yesterday.) And the drama is now spilling into the race to replace Powell, POLITICO’s Jasper Goodman and colleagues report this morning. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, long considered the frontrunner for the gig, might be seen by some Senate Republicans as too close to Trump for comfort. Killer quote: “I’ve got a lot of respect for [Hassett], but he also has a lot of history with the president, so we’ll just have to look at that,” said retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who has threatened to stand in the way of any nominee from advancing out of Senate Banking. BEHIND THE SCENES: Trump attacked a group of U.S. attorneys last week at a White House event, calling them “weak” and saying they weren’t moving fast enough to prosecute his targets, WSJ’s Sadie Gurman and colleagues scoop. Trump also complained the DOJ hasn’t yet brought a criminal case against Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), another of his perceived enemies. NEXT IN LINE FOR A PR BOOST: “Senator Says Prosecutors Are Investigating Her After Video About Illegal Orders,” by NYT’s Greg Jaffe: “Senator Elissa Slotkin of Michigan says she has learned that federal prosecutors are investigating her after she took part in a video urging military service members to resist illegal orders.”
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| | | | TRAIL MIX SCHUMER’S GAMBIT: Democrats have a “real good chance” of flipping the Senate even with a potentially blistering primary season ahead, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer tells POLITICO’s Elena Schneider. Schumer put North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and Alaska in the must-win column as he set out his 2026 strategy, and highlighted two more targets — Iowa and Texas — as “very possible.” It’s all set out in a new DSCC memo shared exclusively with POLITICO on the Democrats’ path to a long-shot majority. “We’ve always had primaries, and some of them always look difficult,” Schumer said. “You work your way through. … Our north star is winning the Senate.” Read the memo FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Cash dash: Former Rep. Mary Peltola raked in $1.5 million in the first 24 hours of her bid to unseat Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska, POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky reports this morning. It’s a big haul for Peltola in one of Schumer’s must-win races. Of the contributions, 96 percent were $100 or less, coming from small-dollar donors including fisherman, silversmiths and train conductors, according to Peltola’s team. Peltola is up two points against Sullivan in Alaska Survey Research’s polling. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Keys to the Keystone: Paige Cognetti, the Democratic mayor of Scranton, raised more than $640,000 in Q4 and has $778,000 in cash on hand, per totals shared first with Lisa. Cognetti has raised more than $1.1 million in her bid to unseat Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan in northeastern Pennsylvania, a seat among Democrats’ top targets. SURVEY SAYS: A new poll of Hispanic business owners shows that 42 percent believe their economic situation is getting worse, while only 24 percent said it is getting better under Trump’s presidency, POLITICO’s Samuel Benson and Alec Hernandez scoop. The far and away majority ranked the cost of living as their top issue. Hispanic voters have become more crucial to Trump’s coalition after they helped carry him to victory in 2024. ACROSS THE POTOMAC: Virginia Democrats are making their last big redistricting push this week, amid doubts about whether they can convince voters to get on board, POLITICO’s Brakkton Booker reports. The Virginia Legislature today is kicking off its first session under Democratic control, but there’s divisions within the party about how extreme the gerrymander should go.
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| | | | BEST OF THE REST CAUSE AND EFFECT: Around 1.4 million fewer people have enrolled in Obamacare coverage this year after facing skyrocketing premiums, NYT’s Reed Abelson and Margot Sanger-Katz report. “Numbers published by the federal government on Monday indicated that 22.8 million Americans had enrolled in Affordable Care Act plans starting Jan. 1, down from 24.2 million enrolled through the end of the sign-up period last year.” Note: People can still enroll through tomorrow. TROUBLE ON THE HILL: Speaker Mike Johnson was dealt a dead end on the House floor yesterday, when GOP defections sank a GOP-led labor bill that would incentivize employers to offer more training for their workers, POLITICO’s Lawrence Ukenye reports. Johnson and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) were actively whipping votes from hesitant members, but still couldn’t get it past the finish line — after that, GOP leaders were forced to scrap two other votes. But don’t you worry: “We’re totally in control of the House,” Johnson told reporters yesterday. A PLAYBOOK APOLOGY: Your author wondered yesterday whether Trump’s big economic trip to Detroit would get much media attention, given the multitude of other dramas created by his administration this month. A few hours later, he’s on TMZ … Shot: “Trump makes obscene gesture, mouths expletive at Detroit factory heckler,” by WaPo’s Natalie Allison and Dan Merica … Chaser: “Ford worker suspended after intense exchange with President Trump,” by The Detroit Free Press’ Jamie LaReau
| | | | A message from the National Retail Federation: Businesses and manufacturers rely on clarity and certainty behind trade policies. Retailers rely on imported products and manufacturing components so they can offer customers a variety of items at affordable prices. NRF is advocating for strategic trade policies that protect American families, workers and businesses. Learn more. | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | IN MEMORIAM — “Claudette Colvin, Who Refused to Give Her Bus Seat to a White Woman, Dies at 86,” by NYT’s Clay Risen: “Claudette Colvin, whose refusal in 1955 to give up her seat to a white woman on a segregated bus in Montgomery, Ala., came months before it was overshadowed by a similar act of resistance in the same city by Rosa Parks, a historic moment that helped galvanize the civil rights movement, died on Tuesday in Texas. She was 86.” WHO YOU GONNA CALL? — Trump has a new texting buddy, Axios’ Holly Otterbein reports … and it’s NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani. What a world. TRUMP’S D.C MAKEOVER — The Trump administration is looking at West Potomac Park in Washington as a possible site for the fabled “National Garden of American Heroes,” WaPo’s Dan Diamond and colleagues report. “The prominent riverside area sits south of the National Mall near the memorials to President Franklin D. Roosevelt and the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.” NEW THIS MORNING — Kenyan McDuffie launched his campaign for D.C. mayor, telling WTOP in an interview he would “work for an economy, with a touch of populism, that will lift residents citywide and to be a fighter for Home Rule and the rights of D.C. residents who feel like their rights are trampled by the federal government.” Watch the launch video BOOK CLUB — “How a G.O.P. Senator Quietly Became a Best-Selling Author,” by NYT’s Catie Edmondson: “Senator John Kennedy, Republican of Louisiana, has long been known for his zany turns of phrase. … ‘How to Test Negative for Stupid: And Why Washington Never Will,’ may be one of the least buzzy books in Washington. Yet the witticism-laden journey through the absurdities of life at the Capitol has quietly sat atop The New York Times’s top 10 best-seller list for 13 weeks.” SPOTTED: Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), Rep. Roger Williams (R-Texas) and Javier Palomarez, all dining separately at The Capital Grille last night. OUT AND ABOUT — Invariant hosted its “Get Red-In” event last night at Joe’s Seafood to welcome the firm’s newest Republican strategists. SPOTTED: Brooke Donilon, Jennifer Belair, Reps. Jeff Hurd (R-Colo.), Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas) and Young Kim (R-Calif.), Richard Chalkey, Ryan Eaton, Pete Meachum, Kyle Perel, Sean Brady, Christina Sevilla, Steve Rochlin, Jim Durrett, Richard Fordyce, Kailee Buller, Vikrum Aiyer, Lindley Kratovil Sherer, Ken Barbic, Carolyn Coda, Drew Griffin, Tim Martin, Jenness Simler, Landon Stropko, Amy Swonger and Heather Podesta. — NOTUS hosted a roundtable dinner about the future of AI regulation at Osteria Mozza, last night. SPOTTED: Robert Allbritton, Juleanna Glover, Kara Swisher and Amanda Katz, Sam Feist, Vivian Schiller, Ellen Weintraub, Katie Harbath, Tim Grieve, Arielle Elliott, Richard Just, Alex Schriver, Kellee Wicker, Aalok Mehta, Owen Daniels, Janet Egan, Hamza Chaudhry, Eric Gastfriend, Nicol Turner Lee, Ros Atkins, Will Kinzel, Miriam Vogel, Brad Bosserman, Adam Conner, Morgan Gress and Varun Krovi. — SPOTTED at a reception last night celebrating Anchorage Digital’s five-year anniversary of its banking charter: Reps. Andy Barr (R-Ky.), Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) and Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa), Rodney Hood, Christy Goldsmith Romero, Summer Mersinger, Tim Massad, Jordan Wood, David Goldfarb, Carlos Orozco, Vincent Tran, Guy Gino, Melissa Kazik, Jason Staab-Peters, Mark Erste, Dennis Porter, Gerald Gallagher, Julie Williams, Cody Carbone, Jason Frye, Rachel Anderika, Kevin Wysocki, Kate Roling, Dustin Palmer and Anne Kelley. — SPOTTED at the Association for Rescue at Sea’s reception yesterday in Rayburn: Reps. Val Hoyle (D-Ore.), Shomari Figures (D-Ala.), Rick Larsen (D-Wash.), Jack Bergman (R-Mich.) and Mark DeSaulnier (D-Calif.), Laura DiBella, Dan Maffei, Adm. Kevin Lunday, Vice Adm. Tom Allen and Peter DeFazio. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Rachel Madley is taking over as executive director of the Center for Health and Democracy. She previously was CHD’s director of policy and advocacy, and is a Hill and FDA alum. TRANSITIONS — Donald Sherman has been named the next president and CEO of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington. He previously was executive director and chief counsel. … Joanne Irby is now COO of All Voting is Local. She previously worked at Raben and co-founded Hummingbird Advantage. … David Marcinkus is now a partner at Dechert. He previously worked at the SEC. … … Ana Marina Ingham is taking over as the Republican State Leadership Committee’s political director. She is a NRCC alum. … Former Charlottesville, Virginia, Mayor Michael Signer has been named chief policy and legal officer at EverDriven. … Kasey Lovett is now head of comms at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency at the Treasury Department. She previously worked in the Department of Housing & Urban Development. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Drew Ross, chief of staff for Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), and Sarah Ross, an HEB staff pharmacist, welcomed Andrew Lawson Ross II on Nov. 29. He came in at 7 lbs, 4 oz. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) and Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa) … Maureen Dowd … Susan Glasser … Nina Totenberg … Frank Raines … Sinead Casey … Shepard Smith … Michael Reed of Cornerstone Government Affairs … Regina Schofield … Colin Milligan of the American Hospital Association … Michael Block … WaPo’s Jen Liberto … NLX’s Molly Gannon Conway … Mary Kusler … Yael Sheinfeld of Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s (D-Mass.) office … Jonah Bryson … Teddy Eynon of Taft Stettinius & Hollister … Gene Karpinski … Marcella Bombardieri … Toby Harnden … International Trade Administration’s Kevin Manning … Insignia Federal Group’s Matt Brafman … Citi’s Ben Koltun … former North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue … Margaret Chadbourn … William Yeo of Burson Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. 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