| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Dasha discuss last night’s drama on the floor of the House, and look ahead to AG Pam Bondi’s appearance in Congress this morning.
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| Good Wednesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard. Get in touch. LANDING SHORTLY: The delayed January jobs report, which could be a biggie. Pro tip: Keep an eye out for possible downward revisions to previous months. “The annual benchmark revisions are going to be more consequential than normal,” Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at BMO Capital Markets, tells Bloomberg. “Right now the labor market does appear to be on a knife’s edge.” NEW THIS MORNING — A POLARIZED WORLD: “How an Icy Town of 20,000 Became a Testing Ground for the New World Order,” by POLITICO’s Mike Blanchfield and Calder McHugh, reporting from Nuuk as Canada opens a consulate in Greenland for the first time. It’s a sign of the times: Everyone is interested in Greenland now. “Every American [with an interest] has stampeded to Nuuk,” says Rebecca Pincus, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. “Everything I hear from my Greenlandic friends is, ‘We’re sick of you.’” And it’s not just Americans: “The diplomatic interest and news value has turned the small, icy town into an unlikely magnet for provocateurs,” Mike and Calder write. “A Danish demonstrator recently slapped Canadian Trump impersonator Mark Critch for showing up outside the U.S. consulate. And German comedian Maxi Schafroth found himself in hot water when he tried to raise the American flag in Greenland’s capital.” In short: “The attention economy has come to the Arctic.” In today’s Playbook … — Two defeats in two hours tee up a difficult day for the White House. — 4 questions for Pam Bondi to answer this morning, via POLITICO’s ace Josh Gerstein. — And the polling that shows why Dems aren’t backing down over ICE.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | THE OLD ONE-TWO: Two major defeats suffered by Trump last night will set up two must-watch moments of political theater today — and serve as further evidence of the rocky road ahead for the White House. More than 10 months after Trump dramatically seized “emergency” tariff powers from Congress — and upended decades of American free market orthodoxy as he did so — the House last night finally pushed back. Three Republicans voted with Democrats to reject Speaker Mike Johnson’s attempt to reinstate a House ban on tariff votes. It was more than enough to overturn the wafer-thin GOP majority. Now watch the defeats roll in: Last night’s 217-214 defeat should open the door to a rolling series of Dem-led votes targeting Trump’s tariffs, starting this afternoon with a resolution put forward by Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) to overturn the levies on Canada. Given the current mood in the House — every single Dem showed up to vote last night, while plenty of Republicans are uncomfortable with tariffs — Johnson looks all but certain to lose. And don’t forget: The Senate has already voted against Trump’s tariffs, with four rebel Republicans siding with Dems last October. Both chambers now appear to have an anti-tariff majority — meaning we are reaching the point where Congress is now actively rebuking the president over his signature economic policy. But to be clear: This is still only political damage for the White House. The power to overturn his tariffs rests with the Supreme Court — and we’re still awaiting that verdict with bated breath. SPEAKING OF THE COURTS: That seismic GOP defeat in the House last night came little more than an hour after news broke that Trump’s DOJ tried — and failed — to secure a grand jury indictment against the six Democratic members of Congress who made a video urging the U.S. military not to follow illegal orders. (A raging Trump has accused them of sedition; the Dems in question say they did nothing wrong.) Tick-tock: We already knew the FBI was making inquiries — but the whole thing escalated rapidly yesterday as the DOJ moved to secure an indictment. And then, just as we’ve seen with several other weak-looking legal cases put forward by this DOJ over recent months, the grand jury rejected the proposal out of hand. Dems are raging at what they see as a clear authoritarian attempt to quell opposition. “This is an outrageous abuse of power by Donald Trump and his lackeys,” said Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), one of the six being investigated. “Trump wants every American to be too scared to speak out.” Another of those under investigation, Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.), added: “If these f--kers think that they’re going to intimidate us and threaten and bully me into silence, and they’re going to go after political opponents and get us to back down, they have another thing coming. The tide is turning.” Popcorn at the ready: With pitch-perfect timing, into this angry fray this morning steps AG Pam Bondi, who is due before the House Judiciary Committee at 10 a.m. to answer questions about her department. You’d imagine her attempt to jail six opposition members of Congress for making a video is likely to come up. Also likely to come up: The Epstein files, obviously. Not least because one of the members of House Judiciary is Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), the Republican who helped force the DOJ to release the millions of files we’re all reading. Expect plenty of questions from him about redactions and delays — and about whether the DOJ really is upholding the law on Epstein. 4 KEY QUESTIONS FOR BONDI, sent to Playbook via an overnight Slack message from POLITICO’s tireless Josh Gerstein. (Thanks, Josh! Please get some sleep!) 1. Why’d the Justice Department try to indict six Democratic lawmakers over a video that simply repeated language that’s been in U.S. military training courses since World War II: that servicemembers have the right and duty to refuse unlawful orders? 2. While the administration claims it had enough legal resources in place to support the immigration enforcement surge in Minneapolis, judges and even some DOJ lawyers say that isn’t the case. The U.S. Attorney’s Office there has reportedly lost 65 percent of its lawyers. Is it well staffed or drowning? 3. Why was Thomas Albus, the U.S. Attorney in St. Louis, Missouri, assigned to investigate voting in Fulton County, Georgia in the 2020 election? And hasn’t the five-year statute of limitations run out at this point? 4. Why do redactions in the Epstein documents appear to go well beyond what Congress authorized in the Epstein Files Transparency Act? But here’s the problem: If Bondi’s appearance before the Senate Judiciary Committee last October is anything to go by, we’re in for a bumpy ride. The AG delivered one of the most aggressive performances we’ve seen at a Senate hearing in some time, tearing into Senate Dems and swatting away questions like flies. So we may get more heat than light today … POLITICO’s Hailey Fuchs has a full preview
| | | | A message from AHIP: 35 Million Seniors Could See Reduced Benefits and Higher Costs. Health plans welcome reforms to strengthen Medicare Advantage. However, a proposal for flat program funding at a time of sharply rising medical costs and high utilization of care will directly impact seniors' coverage. If finalized, this proposal could result in benefit reductions and higher costs for 35 million seniors and people with disabilities when they renew their Medicare Advantage coverage in October 2026. Learn more. | | | | Accountability over Epstein is coming, if only in the court of public opinion. Massie’s compadre Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) yesterday used congressional privilege to name six men whose identities had been redacted in key DOJ documents. MS NOW does a great job of laying out in detail the chummy interactions between Epstein and Steve Bannon, who were working to rehabilitate the financier’s reputation up to the day of his arrest in 2019. The Guardian has a detailed piece on Epstein's relationship with Elon Musk’s brother, Kimbal. And then there’s this: “Nebraska Senate candidate Dan Osborn abruptly canceled a Tuesday fundraiser that was set to be co-hosted by a Democratic operative who was mentioned in the recently released Jeffrey Epstein files as allegedly transporting young girls for the late convicted sex offender,” POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman reports. So what about Howard Lutnick? The Commerce secretary’s admission yesterday that he had lunch with Epstein in 2012 on one of his private islands — long after Epstein's conviction for soliciting prostitution from an underage girl — may well have been the end of a Cabinet career in other parts of the world. But not in Trump’s Washington, as POLITICO’s Megan Messerly and colleagues reported last night. Nope: “Even the Commerce secretary’s fiercest foes are greeting new revelations … with a collective shrug,” Megan and co. report. The reason? They already know this is not a fight Trump wants to pick. “[Lutnick] is despised by nearly everyone,” one person close to the White House says. “I doubt Trump would easily push him out, though. The president doesn’t wanna legitimize the Epstein issue too much.” Also enjoying a relatively soft landing from the scandal: Brad Karp, the former Paul, Weiss chair who quit his job last week after revelations about his relations with Epstein. But as POLITICO’s Ankush Khardori sets out in a thoughtful column this morning, Karp is still a partner with the firm —- and likely just “accelerated a succession process that was already planned.” Truth bomb: “The political and media consensus surrounding Karp’s supposedly dramatic fall from grace may have something to do with the fact that it is in almost everyone’s interest to believe — or simply to act as if — that is what happened,” Ankush writes. In essence: The result is a “wide-ranging desire for a morality tale — one in which someone, anyone, but ideally your political or social adversary, is taken down a major peg.”
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| | | | WAR AND PEACE BIBI COMES A-CALLIN’: Trump is set to meet — for the seventh time — with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu in the White House at 11 a.m. But this visit in particular comes not just as the Gaza peace plan moves into its second phase, but also as the world awaits what’s next in Iran. Trump told Axios yesterday he’s considering sending in a second aircraft carrier strike group as he weighs possible military action. Administration officials have discussed whether to seize more oil tankers (sound familiar?) which would squeeze Iran’s central revenue, but have held off so far, per WSJ’s Shelby Holliday and colleagues. The backdrop: Trump has been hearing a lot from Arab allies in recent weeks as he mulls another strike. Their message has focused on the risks of sparking a prolonged war with severe consequences for the region and perhaps global oil markets, POLITICO’s Eli Stokols writes in to Playbook. Netanyahu will come intent on reminding the president about the risks — as he sees it — of not being aggressive enough toward Tehran, Eli adds. It's been only a few days since an initial round of talks in Oman, even as what Trump has called “an armada” of ships is headed to the Persian Gulf. Netanyahu is likely to try to convince Trump that Iran’s nuclear program is still a threat, even after U.S. strikes last summer. And he’ll make it clear that Israel opposes any possible deal with Iran that allows the regime to keep its ballistic missiles, something Tehran will not discuss relinquishing. NOTEWORTHY: The White House is currently planning to keep the entire Trump-Bibi meeting behind closed doors, just as it has with every other leader who’s visited Trump this year. It’s a far cry from the weekly (or even biweekly) Oval Office news conferences we all enjoyed in 2025. COMING ATTRACTIONS: The Munich Security Conference kicks off on Friday— marking a year since VP JD Vance’s era-defining attack on Europe from the stage. But while the transatlantic relationship is down, don’t count it out just yet, POLITICO’s Paul McLeary and colleagues write this morning. “Interviews with more than a dozen diplomats and military leaders on the continent reveal skepticism that the alliance is falling apart. They expect it to remain, but likely in a very different form.” WATCH THIS SPACE: POLITICO reporters are returning to the Munich Security Conference later this week, where our colleagues will be reporting on all of the latest from the world’s leading forum on international security here in Playbook and across our platforms. We’ll also be opening the doors to our POLITICO Pub and bringing leaders and policy experts together at a new POLITICO Platz. Follow all the latest
| | | | POLITICO Governors Summit Join POLITICO's annual Governors Summit, held alongside the National Governors Association’s Winter Meeting, for a series of forward-looking conversations with governors from across the country about how state leaders are setting the agenda for America’s next chapter. Hear from Gov. Wes Moore (D), Gov. Kevin Stitt (R), and more. Register Now. | | | | | SHUTDOWN SHOWDOWN THREE DAYS LEFT … AND NO DEAL YET: We’re just days away from the deadline when DHS funding will run out. There’s still a lot of daylight between Democrats and Republicans on what it’s going to take to get the agency funded. And there’s fierce opposition among more progressive Democrats against yet another short-term continuing resolution to keep hashing things out. POLITICO’s Inside Congress has the latest First in Playbook — Pressure for Dems to hold the line: New polling offers a glimpse at why Democrats may think the public will stick with them even if DHS shuts down. A new nationwide survey by GBAO of 1,000 registered voters, shared first with Playbook, found 58 percent have negative views of ICE, and that assessment is even more negative (64 percent) among independent voters. Fifty-two percent support securing reforms for ICE before funding DHS. See the poll So what would a DHS-specific shutdown look like? POLITICO’s Jennifer Scholtes and colleagues have a full rundown of how the agency will be affected if money runs dry. The TL;DR: It could take weeks to notice the effect. TSA screeners won’t miss paychecks until March, and FEMA still has billions in disaster money. The agency could also find workarounds to pay members of the Coast Guard. But that won’t last forever. AND ANOTHER MAJOR VOTE: The House is expected to take up the SAVE Act today and send it to the Senate, where a pressure cooker situation is awaiting Republicans as they face pressure from hard-liners to allow an exception to the filibuster to pass the bill under simple majority, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney writes.
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| | | | BEST OF THE REST LATEST ON THE GUTHRIES: “A man was released from custody early Wednesday morning after being detained for questioning in the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie, the mother of the ‘Today’ show anchor Savannah Guthrie,” NYT’s Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs reports. “The release of the man was a blow to investigators, who are entering their 11th day of trying to determine who may have abducted Ms. Guthrie’s 84-year-old mother and where she is now. The man who was released … said that he had been in his car on Tuesday evening in Rio Rico, Ariz., about an hour’s drive south of Tucson, when police officers asked him his name and then detained him. He was held for several hours, he said, before eventually being released.” JAW-DROPPER: “Bridge Owner Lobbied Administration Before Trump Blasted Competing Span to Canada,” by NYT’s Tyler Pager and Matina Stevis-Gridneff: “Matthew Moroun is a Detroit-based trucking magnate whose family has operated the Ambassador Bridge between Detroit and Windsor, Ontario, for decades. He met on Monday with [Howard] Lutnick in Washington … After that meeting Mr. Lutnick spoke with Mr. Trump by phone about the matter, the officials said. … The Moroun family has for decades mounted legal challenges to block or delay the competing project, known as Gordie Howe International Bridge.” FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Cash dash: The Democratic Attorneys General Association is announcing this morning that it raised $28 million across all entities in 2025, its largest off-year fundraising haul. The organization told Playbook they’re preparing to continue to invest in AG races and targeting flip opportunities, like in Kansas. “We’re also looking at our map and think there are additional states in play,” DAGA President Sean Rankin said. THREE-CAR PILE UP: Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and physician Abdul El-Sayed will gather at the Washington Hilton today for the United Auto Workers Michigan U.S. Senate Candidate Forum, as the three candidates vie for the powerful union’s endorsement in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, Playbook’s Adam Wren writes in. Greeting them will be targeted banner display ads throughout the conference — courtesy of the National Republican Senatorial Committee — attacking their support of EV mandates. Pic WHAT THE RNC IS READING: Trump is still the dominant force in the race for the GOP nomination for Georgia governor, according to polling firm co-efficient. The poll puts Rick Jackson leading with 24 percent of the vote, followed by the Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones at 16 percent. Of the self-identified “Trump Republicans” — roughly half of the GOP’s surveyed primary voters — Jackson is leading 32 percent with Jones behind him at 18 percent. The polling comes as Georgia Republicans have maneuvered to break norm and back Jones in the race, as POLITICO’s Erin Doherty reported. IT’S AFFORDABILITY WEEK SOMEWHERE: “On housing, Trump’s problem isn’t willpower. It’s time,” by POLITICO’s Megan Messerly and Cassandra Dumay: “[T]he White House has put forward a bevy of proposals aimed at tackling high home costs. … But economists say those policies, to the extent any lower costs, are likely to have only minimal impact at best.”
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➡️ Sign up for POLITICO Forecast. | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | WEATHER WATCH — The thaw is upon us! And we may be saying sayonara to the “snowcrete,” per WaPo’s Capital Weather Gang. “Temperatures are expected to climb above freezing each day in the D.C. area for the foreseeable future, with some days next week reaching the 50s or higher.” THE POST FALLOUT — Today marks one week since WaPo downsized a large percentage of its newsroom through sweeping layoffs that wiped out entire teams and left others with severely diminished numbers. And new reporting indicates that another potential proposal from local D.C. dwellers could have spun off WaPo’s local and sports coverage. The Verge’s Tina Nguyen reports that the owner of the Washington City Paper had made such an offer to keep the desks alive. “Though [now-former publisher Will Lewis] was reportedly receptive, the discussions abruptly ended last Wednesday.” Everyone is noticing: The Commanders left three seats open for WaPo’s former reporters at head coach Dan Quinn’s presser yesterday. “Their presence is missed,” Quinn said. How we got here: Status’ Oliver Darcy reports that last fall, Lewis had come up with a plan for layoffs that he pitched to owner Jeff Bezos, but Bezos “was not pleased by what he heard.” Bezos rejected Lewis’ proposed plan, “delaying layoffs that had initially been slated for late 2025” and “sent Lewis back to the drawing board.” Last night, the Washington Association of Black Journalists gathered to offer support for WaPo journalists impacted by the layoffs, providing a forum for people to voice their concerns over the paper’s cuts. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Book club: Jerry Seib, the former WSJ D.C. bureau chief, is writing a biography of former Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole for HarperCollins. “It will be a broad look at Dole’s amazing life and equally amazing legislative record, which looks all the more remarkable in contrast to the difficulty Congress has in getting things done today,” Seib told Playbook. The book is set to publish in 2027. McCARTHYISM — Kevin McCarthy may be stepping back into the spotlight, with a plum position helping to organize the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles. As Casey Wasserman, the current LA28 chief, faces a furor over his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, McCarthy’s name “has been raised as a potential replacement for Wasserman as Olympic chair, at least in the interim,” Deadline’s Dominic Patten reports. OUT AND ABOUT — YouTube hosted a welcome reception at ART DC last night for its inaugural YouTube Independent Media Summit, which kicks off today. SPOTTED: Don Lemon, Joy Reid, Pamela Brown, Rep. Beth Van Duyne (R-Texas), Jason Y. Lee, Cenk Uygur, Dave Jorgenson, Tara Palmeri and Matt DeGroot. — SPOTTED at a Capitol Hill Club reception last night honoring Darryl Nirenberg, the newly confirmed U.S. ambassador to Romania: Reps. David Rouzer (R-N.C.), Pat Harrigan (R-N.C.), Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.), Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), Ron Estes (R-Kan.) and Mary Gay Scanlon (D-Pa.), Tucker Knott, Matt Keelan, Sean McCabe, Alex Rosemond, Jack Rosemond, Stephen Billy, Curtis Rhyne, Megan Gallagher, Maggie Abboud, Molly Abboud, Kate Lair, Joel Bailey, Steve Phillips, Jonny Newbold, Steven Law, John Hoel, David French, Kelly Nirenberg and Mollie Timmons. WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Stephen Billy is joining ZeroEyes as director of federal strategy. He worked at OMB in both Trump administrations, and is an SBA Pro-Life America and Commerce Department alum. MEDIA MOVE — Sean Sullivan is now an editor at the NYT. He previously spent 13 years at WaPo. TRANSITIONS — Cody Sargent is now senior adviser for strategic comms to Interior Secretary Doug Burgum. He previously worked at The Heritage Foundation and is a Heritage Action, Tommy Tuberville and Plus Communications alum. … Courtney Connell has rejoined Ernst & Young as a partner/principal in Washington Council EY. She most recently worked for the Senate Finance Committee. … Kirami Bah is returning to New Heights Communications as a comms manager. She previously worked at the United Nations Foundation. … … Clarke Humphrey is joining Priorities USA as chief impact officer. She previously worked at C+K. … Sarah Shriver Smothers has joined oakpool as head of public relations. She previously worked at Concerned Veterans for America. … Christopher Minakowski has joined ACG Advocacy as a partner. He previously was at JA Green & Co. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) … NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman … Hawaii Gov. Josh Green … Sarah Palin … Jeb Bush … POLITICO’s Grace Yarrow, Anna Goodell and Evan Lehmann … Jimmy Dahman … Dan Barry … Alex Conant … James Hewitt … Kyle Buckles … Evan Siegfried … ProPublica’s Stephen Engelberg … Will Smith of Cornerstone Government Affairs … Nicole L’Esperance … Wes Barrett … Brian Kaveney ... Andrea Mares … Hannah Lindow … Emily Kirlin of Tiber Creek Group … Jess Sarmiento … former Rep. Rob Woodall (R-Ga.) … Rob Hendin … former HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt … Alicia Mundy … Steven Roberts … Johanna Maska … Caitlin Mackintosh Schroder … Jamie Logan of the American Cleaning Institute … Meiying Wu … Alejandro Rosenkranz … Danielle Strasburger … Amy Blunt of HB Strategies … Rachel Kosberg … Amanda Hamilton … Dean Warsh of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers … Third Way’s Matt Bennett … Rick Tyler Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.
| | | | A message from AHIP: 35 Million Seniors Could See Reduced Benefits and Higher Costs
Health plans welcome reforms to strengthen Medicare Advantage. However, a proposal for flat program funding at a time of sharply rising medical costs and high utilization of care will directly impact seniors' coverage. If finalized, this proposal could result in benefit reductions and higher costs for 35 million seniors and people with disabilities when they renew their Medicare Advantage coverage in October 2026. Learn more. | | | | | | | | Follow us on X | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Canada Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | |
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