| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Dasha discuss the pros and cons for Donald Trump of his new pick for Fed chair … and the happiest news you’ve heard in D.C. so far this year.
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| Good Wednesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard. Get in touch. PARTY LIKE IT’S 1999: With Kid Rock doing the alternative Super Bowl halftime show and a baby elephant born at The Smithsonian for the first time since 2001, there was already a turn-of-the-millennium vibe to this week. But a House investigation into the Clintons? What could be more retro than that? Interestingly, it’s the generational gap to the late 1990s that proved the driving force behind the modern-day Democratic Party’s decision to hang former president Bill Clinton out to dry, POLITICO’s Eli Stokols, Hailey Fuchs, Shia Kapos and Mia McCarthy report this morning. “A youthful vanguard of progressive office-holders unlikely to even recall the Clinton presidency … have largely opted against defending” him, they report. Nine Democratic lawmakers voted in favor of holding the Clintons in contempt over their reluctance to give House testimony on the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Killer line: “Anyone should be held accountable, regardless of political party,” said Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.), who was unsure whether Democrats would have been less likely to hold a former president of their own party in contempt two decades earlier. “I don’t know, man, I was in kindergarten,” the 37-year-old Jacobs said. The Dems speaking anonymously are even more brutal. “What is the political usefulness of the Clintons these days?” an adviser to a potential 2028 presidential candidate asked. “At this point, they bring nothing but baggage,” added one Democratic lobbyist in Washington. Read the full report Rahm Emanuel, a potential 2028 presidential candidate who worked on Bill Clinton’s presidential campaign and was an adviser during his years in the White House, told Playbook’s Adam Wren that while it’s “essential to fight” Trump, “it’s also equally essential to fight for America.” He continued: “2028 will be about the future. As Bill Clinton always used to say, ‘Don't stop thinking about tomorrow.’” After their forced U-turn, Bill and Hillary Clinton are now due to testify at the end of this month. But it’s Trump who sounds more upset than most Democrats. “I think it's a shame, to be honest,” the president told reporters yesterday. “I always liked him. … [And] she's a very capable woman … I hate to see it in many ways.” Now… why could that be? One potential issue for Trump is that Dems are now arguing that Republicans “have established a precedent when it comes to Congress’ ability to subpoena and haul in past presidents, first ladies and family members, under threat of criminal charges if they refuse,” per NBC. In today’s Playbook … — Meet Kevin Warsh: The establishment insider leading Trump's Fed revolution. — Rubio and Vance team up to take on China. — And only days to go until the next shutdown!
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | IT’LL ALL COME OUT IN THE WARSH: Happy birthday, Jerome Powell. The outgoing Fed chair is 73 today: Perhaps he’ll celebrate by watching Scott Bessent at the House Financial Services Committee this morning … or maybe Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaking in Miami later tonight. But the clock is ticking. Powell has only two more Federal Reserve meetings as chair before his term ends on May 15. And the likely next Fed chair is no 1960s-era Deadhead. Trump’s pick, Kevin Warsh, is almost 20 years younger and very much of a different generation — a product of 1990s Stanford, Harvard Law School and MIT. But Warsh’s real understanding of political economics dates back further, POLITICO’s economics correspondent Victoria Guida and top colleague Ian Ward write in an essential new profile out this morning. Warsh learned the basics via a high school side hustle — working a summer job at the Saratoga Race Course in upstate New York. “After a few summers setting up beer kegs and delivering ice as a barback, Warsh secured a promotion to sell programs to race-goers near the entryway to the track,” they write. “At the stall where he worked, Warsh developed a nifty sales trick: When patrons came to buy programs, he would also sell them a ‘lucky pencil,’ along with advice on which horse to bet on in the big race.” Making your own luck: “Over the course of the day, he would advise eight different customers to bet on eight different horses, assuring each that the ‘lucky pencil’ guaranteed them success. It was a failproof strategy: At the end of each day, the winner would return to the stand to tip him for selling them the lucky pencil.” Warsh later described the grift as “a nice way to get a little bonus at the end of a big Saturday racing.” Victoria and Ian note: “It was also a lesson with applications in both finance and politics: Hedge your bets.” Read the full profile here
| | | | A message from AHIP: 35 Million Seniors Could See Reduced Benefits and Higher Costs. Health plans welcome reforms to strengthen Medicare Advantage. However, a proposal for flat program funding at a time of sharply rising medical costs and high utilization of care will directly impact seniors' coverage. If finalized, this proposal could result in benefit reductions and higher costs for 35 million seniors and people with disabilities when they renew their Medicare Advantage coverage in October 2026. Learn more. | | | | We need to talk about Kevin: Warsh is a fascinating pick from Trump, who had appeared to want an ultra-loyal disruptor to head the bank — perhaps in the style of some of his more outlandish Cabinet picks. His rough treatment of Powell, who is now being investigated by Trump’s DOJ, clearly signals a president who wants and expects a chair who will do his bidding, come what may. But is Warsh that guy? The CV — Morgan Stanley, Bush White House, Federal Reserve board, vast independent wealth — suggests not. Warsh even gave a speech in 2010, Victoria and Ian write, celebrating the independence of the Fed. “Central banks must take their own counsel when deciding upon the timing and force [of lowering interest rates],” he said in a speech titled “An Ode to Independence.” “I am confident that any attempt to influence inappropriately the conduct of Fed policy would yield a strong and forceful rebuke by Fed officials and market participants alike.” He means it. That commitment will be put to the test by Trump, assuming Warsh can clear his Senate confirmation in the weeks ahead. So why him? “Warsh’s appointment suggests the Trump administration has a keen sense of the risks it’s facing,” Victoria tells Playbook. “He’s built a relationship with Trump but has a history of vocally defending Fed independence, which means he can offer some measure of relief to Republican lawmakers — and markets — who have been wary about the president’s attacks. He also has a reputation as a strict inflation fighter, which means even if he pushes for lower rates — as Trump has demanded — investors might think Warsh will act to raise rates if prices really start to surge.” Easier said than done? “He has to be a lot of things to a lot of different people,” Victoria notes, “and it’s much easier to do that in theory than in practice. After all, markets always find ways to test a new Fed chair.” Other hurdles await. First Warsh needs to get through the Senate — and yesterday the 11 Democrats on the Senate Finance Committee confirmed (via a letter reported by the FT) that they support rebel Republican Sen. Thom Tillis’ (R-N.C.) position that the nomination should not advance while an investigation hangs over Powell. And the WSJ editorial board has added its voice to the calls for the inquiry to be swiftly dropped. But that’s not all: Even assuming his confirmation, Warsh will not be able to simply flick a switch and start chopping interest rates, POLITICO’s Sam Sutton reports this morning — after all, every board member has a vote. “The case for cuts is murky — hiring has plummeted, but inflation remains elevated — and that has fomented dissent among central bank policymakers who traditionally seek consensus on monetary policy decisions,” Sam writes. Key members of the powerful Federal Open Market Committee are in no rush to lower rates.” Read it and weep, Mr. President: If Warsh wants to “deliver significantly lower rates, he’ll need to get the votes,” said Yale economics professor Bill English, a former top Fed economist who led its monetary affairs division. And “barring an economic surprise … I doubt there’ll be support to get the sort of rates that the President would like to see.” The battle for control of the Fed is far from done. FOR YOUR RADAR: Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran has resigned as chair of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, Barron's revealed last night. Miran had pledged to quit his White House gig if his role on the Fed board ran beyond January.
| | | | A message from AHIP:  
| | | | IMMIGRATION FILES HOMAN AT THE MIC: Border czar Tom Homan is scheduled to host a news conference in Minneapolis today at 9 a.m. Eastern — one day after Renee Good’s brothers delivered emotional testimony to congressional Democrats, describing the shootings of Good and Alex Pretti by federal immigration agents as “changing the community and changing many lives, including ours, forever.” There’s little sign of the story disappearing any time soon. Today’s essential read on Minnesota comes via the WSJ’s Josh Dawsey and Tarini Parti, who focus on the role of White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller. They report that Miller began texting with CBP agents and framing the government’s response to Pretti’s shooting while his body was “still lying facedown on an icy Minneapolis street.” Miller used language that had not been approved or reviewed, officials told WSJ, when he called Pretti a “domestic terrorist” who had “tried to assassinate federal law enforcement.” TICK TOCK: Homan’s news conference also comes less than a day after Trump signed a bill ending the brief partial government shutdown — and starting a new countdown clock of less than two weeks for Congress to find an agreement on DHS funding for the remainder of the fiscal year. House GOP leaders have suggested they will leave it to Trump to lead the negotiations on funding for DHS, which includes agencies like TSA and FEMA. (Much of ICE’s funding was included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.) If a deal isn’t struck by Feb. 13, DHS would face another funding lapse — which is sounding increasingly likely, as congressional leaders tell it. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said getting an agreement to Trump’s desk on that timeline would be an “impossibility,” while House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said another stopgap funding bill for the department would be “off the table.” Other lawmakers are “increasingly pessimistic about the prospects for reaching any DHS deal given Congress’ perennial struggle to agree on immigration policy, POLITICO’s Inside Congress writes. ONE TO WATCH: The Senate Judiciary Committee is holding a hearing at 2:30 p.m. on “Somali Scammers: Fighting Fraud in Minnesota and Beyond.” The hearing comes in response to the sweeping allegations of fraud upon which Republicans have seized following a documentary posted by the influencer Nick Shirley. Read the NYT profile
| | | | POLITICO Governors Summit Join POLITICO's annual Governors Summit, held alongside the National Governors Association’s Winter Meeting, for a series of forward-looking conversations with governors from across the country about how state leaders are setting the agenda for America’s next chapter. Hear from Gov. Wes Moore (D), Gov. Kevin Stitt (R), and more. Register Now. | | | | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD MISSION CRITICAL: Secretary of State Marco Rubio and VP JD Vance will host reps from more than 50 nations at the State Department at 9 a.m. to work on creating China-free supply chains for critical minerals — a hugely-important enterprise for the future economy. The problem: The Trump administration’s efforts could be hampered by allies’ upset over Trump’s international aggression, POLITICO’s Phelim Kine and colleagues report. “The furor over Greenland is going to be the elephant in the room,” one European diplomat says. Related: A new poll shows three-quarters of Greenlanders are sour on joining the U.S., per the WSJ. ALSO HAPPENING IN D.C. TODAY: First lady-turned-“movie star” (according to the president) Melania Trump will meet with Keith and Aviva Siegel, a U.S.-Israeli couple whom Hamas held hostage in Gaza, per The Times of Israel. Press will be invited in at 1:15 p.m. WAR AND PEACE: The next round of U.S.-Ukraine-Russia peace talks begins today in Abu Dhabi. Special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner’s peace mission will be complicated by the newly revived Russian attacks on Ukraine’s cities. But Trump told reporters yesterday he felt Russian President Vladimir Putin “kept his word” in pausing his energy infrastructure strikes for a week beforehand, per The Kyiv Independent. ALL SMILES: Trump’s meeting with Colombian President Gustavo Petro turned out to be more Mamdani-esque bromance than Ramaphosa-style disaster. Despite remaining policy gaps, Trump called the leftist leader (who he dubbed a “sick man” last month) “terrific” and said they’d work together on fighting drug trafficking, per POLITICO’s Megan Messerly and colleagues. And around the world: Despite rising tensions and skirmishes yesterday, U.S.-Iran talks are still on for later this week. Axios’ Barak Ravid reports that the U.S. agreed to Iran’s ask to move them from Turkey to Oman. … And the Pentagon acknowledged for the first time that a small number of troops have been deployed in Nigeria, per Reuters.
| | | | A message from AHIP:  
| | | | BEST OF THE REST NEW THIS MORNING: Harry Dunn, the former Capitol Police officer who came in second in a 2024 Maryland Democratic congressional primary, is making another bid — this time to succeed Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.). His launch video this morning links his experience fighting off Jan. 6 rioters to ICE agents: “Lawlessness isn’t always a mob,” he says. Watch it here DEMOCRACY WATCH: Trump has insisted (again) that he does want to federalize the country’s elections — part of his ongoing campaign of false claims about voter fraud — even after Karoline Leavitt had tried to clarify that his “nationalize” comment was really about the SAVE Act, per ABC. Thune and Speaker Mike Johnson swiftly threw cold water on the prospect … but then Johnson made his own baseless claims about election fraud in blue states. Dems are increasingly concerned about where this rhetoric is headed. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Dan Osborn’s Working Class Heroes Fund is endorsing three independent congressional bids challenging GOP House incumbents: Mike Thurow in Wisconsin’s 6th District, Nate Powell in Washington’s 5th and Bill Hill in Alaska. The group, which has backed working-class independents, Republicans and Democrats in the past, tells Playbook it intends to continue doing so this cycle, in an effort to shake up American politics. STILL SEARCHING FOR ANSWERS: The DNC is kicking off an outreach program to ask likely Democratic voters why they stayed home in 2024, POLITICO’s Aaron Pellish scoops this morning. ‘A TERRIBLE THING’: Trump yesterday said he would call “Today” show anchor Savannah Guthrie about her mother Nancy Guthrie, who was reported missing on Sunday. “I think it’s a terrible thing. I always got along very good with Savannah,” he said. The White House added on X: “Our prayers are with the Guthrie family as we hope for Nancy’s safe return.” ‘THAT’S NEVER BEEN DONE’: “Judge skeptical of Pentagon’s efforts to punish Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly over ‘illegal orders’ video,” by CBS’ Sarah Lynch and Callie Teitelbaum: “U.S. District Judge Richard Leon appeared concerned by the Justice Department’s arguments that the speech limitations customarily imposed on active-duty military officers … was being extended to include retired service members like [Sen. Mark] Kelly.”
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➡️ Sign up for POLITICO Forecast. | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | DEMOCRACY DIES IN DARKNESS — Staffers at WaPo are preparing for a round of potentially hundreds of layoffs, which Puck’s Dylan Byers reported the paper is expected to announce this morning. That follows reporting from last week that as many as 300 employees may lose their jobs as the Jeff Bezos-owned newspaper — which has broken some of the most consequential journalism in American history — reportedly makes massive cuts to its sports, metro and international desks. The Washington-Baltimore News Guild (whose units include both The Washington Post Guild and POLITICO’s PEN Guild) is hosting a “Save the Post” rally tomorrow. PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — Congressional Republicans are gearing up to squeeze D.C.’s tax code with action that could wipe out $600 million in revenue for the city and “sow fiscal chaos,” local officials tell WaPo’s Jenny Gathright and Meagan Flynn. A resolution that would unwind D.C.’s move to separate the city from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s federal tax cuts is coming up for a House floor vote this afternoon, and it will be in the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee at 10 a.m. Republicans argue that the disapproval resolution — which needs just 51 votes in the Senate — will bolster local taxpayers. D.C. warns it could push filing deadlines into the fall and wipe out a child tax credit. STRICTLY BALLROOM — Trump unveiled a new rendering of the future White House ballroom and rebuilt East Wing. See it here … The latest Justice Department filing in the court case over the ballroom claims that it’s “imperative for reasons of national security” and asks the judge to pause any potential injunction, per ABC. McCONNELL IN THE HOSPITAL — Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) “checked himself into a local hospital” Monday night after experiencing flu-like symptoms, his office said, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney reports. The 83-year-old polio survivor has faced a series of falls in recent years and is often seen requiring assistance navigating the Capitol halls. He announced last year he would not seek reelection an eighth time. NIGHTMARE IN WILMINGTON — “Jill Biden’s ex-husband charged with murder of wife in Delaware,” by Fox29 Philadelphia’s Amanda Hurley and Jennifer Lee: “William Stevenson, 77, is charged with first-degree murder in the death of his 64-year-old wife Linda Stevenson after a weeks-long investigation.” HOLLYWOODLAND — Joseph Gordon-Levitt will be on the Hill today for a news conference to advocate for Section 230 reforms that would rein in liability shields for Big Tech. More from The Hill OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a cocktail reception for NOTUS’ podcast “On NOTUS”: Reese Gorman, Tim Grieve, Kate Nocera, J.P. Fielder, Arielle Elliott, Carl Hulse, Stephen Neukam, Mary Streett, Neil Grace, Deirdre Walsh, Ben Jacobs, Max Cohen, Neil Grace, Jim Lokay, Riley Rogerson, Oriana Gonzalez, Brad Bosserman, Kate Meissner, Rolf Hanson, Kadia Goba, Zolan Kanno-Youngs, Natalie Allison, Cory Combs, Carly Spraggins, Paige Ash, Melodie Thomas, Josh Sorbe, Michael Kikukawa, Katie Isaacson, Molly O'Dell, Mike Marinella and Justin Peligri. — SPOTTED at a retirement toast for DeDe Lea at Cafe Milano yesterday: Dallas Lea, Reps. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio) and Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-Calif.), Monaco Ambassador Maguy Maccario Doyle, Tasia Jackson, Yelberton Watkins, Makan Delrahim, Kira Alvarez, Josh Brown, Danny Fernandez, Sydney Butler, Emorie Broemel, Fin Gómez, Ed O’Keefe, Mark Lima, Lyndon Boozer, Gloria Dittus, Howard Woolley, Joyce Brayboy, Susan Fox, Melissa Maxfield, Paxton Baker and Phil Tahtakran. MEDIA MOVE — Neil McCabe is now a national political reporter at Real America’s Voice. He previously worked at the Justice Department for Ed Martin. TRANSITIONS — Scott Mechkowski is now a visiting fellow at the Oversight Project. He previously worked with ICE’s enforcement and removal operations. … Matt Nosanchuk has been named the Lerner family associate dean for public interest and public service law at GW Law School. He previously worked in the Biden Education Department’s Office for Civil Rights. … Isabel Munilla is joining the Project on Government Oversight as interim executive director. She previously worked at the Energy Department. … … Rep. Jim Baird (R-Ind.) has added Eric Akers as legislative director and Noah Slayter as digital director and press secretary. Akers previously worked for the MITRE Corporation. Slayter previously worked for Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions and is a Kevin Cramer alum. … Tia O’Malley is joining Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-Texas) office as a legislative correspondent. She previously worked at Ridgeline Advocacy Group. … Amanda Lincoln is joining the Blue Cross Blue Shield Association as VP of policy and advocacy. She most recently worked for the Senate HELP Committee and Chair Bill Cassidy (R-La.). WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Drew Schneider, head of congressional affairs at DoorDash, and Brittany Schneider, senior financial analyst at the Federal Reserve, recently welcomed Ronan Schneider. He joins big sister Cecelia. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Fed Chair Jerome Powell … Reps. Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.), Sanford Bishop (D-Ga.) and Michael Guest (R-Miss.) … Hunter Biden … Adrienne Arsht … former VP Dan Quayle … POLITICO’s Alisa Vasquez and Mike Soraghan … City Cast’s Annie Rees … Nicolle Wallace … CNN’s Shimon Prokupecz … Eric Garcetti … John Czwartacki … Sean Illing … Matt McDonald … Ilan Goldenberg … former VA Secretary Jim Nicholson … Apple’s John LaBombard … Shantanu Tata … Eli Woerpel … Thad Inge of Van Scoyoc Associates … Zachary Mitchiner … Seth Michaels of the Union of Concerned Scientists … Morgan Rako Gang … former DNI Dennis Blair … Amelia Chassé Alcivar … Laetitia de Cayeux … Josh Mercer of CatholicVote … Nissa Koerner-Schostak … Susanna Billings … Ann Liston … Dan Berger Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Garrett Ross. Corrections: Yesterday’s Playbook mischaracterized Rep. Rosa DeLauro’s (D-Conn.) vote on a funding package in the House. Monday’s Playbook misstated the office for which Gregory Jackson is running. He announced a campaign for an at-large seat on the D.C. City Council.
| | | | A message from AHIP: 35 Million Seniors Could See Reduced Benefits and Higher Costs
Health plans welcome reforms to strengthen Medicare Advantage. However, a proposal for flat program funding at a time of sharply rising medical costs and high utilization of care will directly impact seniors' coverage. If finalized, this proposal could result in benefit reductions and higher costs for 35 million seniors and people with disabilities when they renew their Medicare Advantage coverage in October 2026. Learn more. | | | | | | | | Follow us on X | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Canada Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | |
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