| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Megan Messerly discuss Donald Trump’s waning power over his party — and how the greatest job in Washington has turned into the worst.
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| Good Thursday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, slowly realizing that the Great Thaw of 2026 actually just means roadside slush mountains, sodden sidewalks and monster puddles for ever more. Bring me sunshine! Please! (Or just drop me a line and cheer me up.) NEW POLLING THIS MORNING — FAITH NO MORE: The West has lost its faith in the U.S. as a reliable ally, with key NATO partners rapidly losing confidence that the once iron-clad threat of America’s military would deter hostile attacks, according to a stark new POLITICO Poll. By the numbers: As global leaders convene in Germany for the Munich Security Conference, POLITICO’s polling partner Public First surveyed 10,000 people across four allied nations: the U.K., Canada, Germany and France, POLITICO’s Nicholas Vinocur and Erin Doherty report. “Across all countries polled, far more people described the U.S. as an unreliable ally than a reliable one, including half the adults polled in Germany and 57 percent in Canada.” See the full data set here Reminder: POLITICO reporting teams will be live on the ground at the MSC through Sunday, along with the now-(in)famous POLITICO Pub for networking and bier-related activities. Keep an eye out for our events and live coverage. In today’s Playbook … — Dems tee up for rolling tariff votes after last night’s big win in the House. — Is border czar Tom Homan preparing to roll back ICE in Minnesota? — And why being ambassador to Washington just ain’t what it used to be.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | SO MUCH WINNING: Buoyant Hill Democrats plan to press home their newfound advantage on tariffs with a series of rolling votes after next week’s recess. Democrats’ landmark win on the House floor last night, rebuking Trump’s tariffs on Canada, will be followed later this month with a similar vote condemning tariffs on Mexico. Trump’s tariffs on Brazil are also in Democratic sights, along with the entire “Liberation Day” suite. The penguins will be pleased, at any rate. And there’s more: We already know an anti-tariff majority exists in the Senate following the 51-47 votes last October. That means there’s a real chance Trump will have to start vetoing congressional demands in the coming weeks — unless the Supreme Court steps in first and rules his tariffs illegal. We also know these votes are essentially symbolic — Dems have nothing close to the numbers to overturn a presidential veto. Speaker Mike Johnson last night described the votes as a “fruitless exercise,” making clear Trump will block any congressional pushback on his signature economic policy. But the symbolism matters, for two reasons. First: We’re watching Trump slowly lose his iron grip over his party. Last night’s stark Truth Social threat of Trump-powered primaries for rebel Republicans failed, for obvious reasons. The six rebels who voted alongside Democrats are either retiring (Don Bacon of Nebraska and Dan Newhouse of Washington), getting edged out by Trump’s redistricting battle (Kevin Kiley of California), are at war with Trump already (Thomas Massie of Kentucky) or are in districts marginal enough for primaries to hurt the GOP if Trump follows through with his threat (Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania and Jeff Hurd of Colorado). And this problem isn’t going away for the White House. More Republican retirements are likely before November. And after the midterms, Republican thoughts will inevitably turn toward 2028 and whoever comes next. The first half of last year looks increasingly like a high watermark, with Trump’s control of his party now only headed in one direction. Second: For all the intense noise of the past few weeks — from Nicolás Maduro to Greenland to Minnesota to Jeffrey Epstein — the midterms are still going to be fought on pocketbook issues. Republicans are nervous enough about tariffs to vote against their own president because they believe Trump is hitting voters where it hurts, and at the worst possible time. In their own words: “As an old fashioned Conservative, I know tariffs are a tax on American consumers,” Bacon said yesterday. Hurd warned of the impact on “payrolls, investment decisions, and long-term planning” in Colorado. Newhouse added: “The fact of the matter remains the tariffs on Canada have harmed Washingtonians.” POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill and colleagues have more on Republicans’ “unwanted referendum on affordability”
| | | | A message from AHIP: 35 Million Seniors Could See Reduced Benefits and Higher Costs. Health plans welcome reforms to strengthen Medicare Advantage. However, a proposal for flat program funding at a time of sharply rising medical costs and high utilization of care will directly impact seniors' coverage. If finalized, this proposal could result in benefit reductions and higher costs for 35 million seniors and people with disabilities when they renew their Medicare Advantage coverage in October 2026. Learn more. | | | | These Republican concerns about the cost-of-living issue raise another question — what has happened to Trump’s 2026 affordability tour? It’s been more than three weeks since chief of staff Susie Wiles told reporters on the plane to Davos that the president would be doing weekly campaign trips around the country, starting with Iowa the following Tuesday. And since then … crickets. In fact, the president has barely done any media at all since his flight to Mar-a-Lago last Friday night, aside from a Fox Business interview with Larry Kudlow. (Trump’s Super Bowl interview was recorded over a week ago.) There were no questions at yesterday’s White House event on coal, and no media at all around Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit. The pushback: White House spokesperson Kush Desai told my POLITICO colleague Diana Nerozzi: “Last week, President Trump launched TrumpRx.gov to deliver unprecedented drug pricing relief for American patients, announced details of a historic trade deal with India, and did two national media interviews that reached millions of Americans. The president will be on the road later in the coming days to highlight this and the other work he’s doing for the American people.” Trump 2.0, of course, has genuinely been the most media-accessible president in living memory. And he still has a White House event with EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin in the diary for this afternoon — presumably the big climate change rollback — plus a speech at Fort Bragg on Friday night to the military task force that arrested Maduro. But none of it smacks of the relentless PR campaign on affordability promised by top aides. The irony is: The White House has a decent story to tell. The economy keeps outperforming expectations — yesterday’s job market figures were (again) way better than analysts predicted. Inflation has repeatedly beaten forecasts too. GDP and wage growth are impressive. The stock market is at record levels. The dire warnings of a tariff-led recession feel like a very long time ago. And we’ve seen a policy blitz on affordability, with housing, drug prices and energy costs among the areas targeted in recent weeks. But none of it appears to be shifting voter attitudes. The essential problem remains that Trump promised hard-pinched voters he would bring prices down — yet more than a year into his presidency, people feel grocery prices are still high while energy and health care costs go up. There’s endless data to back this up. Eye-catching new polling out today commissioned by center-left group Third Way — shared exclusively with POLITICO’s Samuel Benson — finds Trump’s favorability is cratering even among young men. The survey of 1,462 men registered to vote between the ages of 18 to 29 finds a whopping 58 percent believe Trump has negatively impacted their finances, vs. just 23 percent who say he’s had a positive impact. And there’s more: The young men surveyed gave Trump a 32 percent approval rating, compared to 66 percent who disapprove. That 34-point gap is a far cry from Trump’s 2024 numbers: he won 18- to 29-year-old male voters by 14 points on his way back to the White House. See the full poll
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| | | | IMMIGRATION FILES ICE OUT? Border czar Tom Homan is set to brief the press from Minneapolis at 9 a.m. Eastern. Homan has been stationed in Minnesota for weeks to oversee the Trump administration’s cleanup of its immigration crackdown in the deep-blue city. Stay tuned for news: When Homan called a news conference last week, he announced that the administration was pulling 700 ICE agents out of Minneapolis and said he was hoping for “a complete drawdown” to come quickly. Adding to the anticipation, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz told reporters he spoke with Homan and Susie Wiles on Tuesday, and that he expected “Operation Metro Surge” to end in a matter of “days, not weeks.” So watch this space BOVINO IS BACK: After Greg Bovino was shunted out of Minnesota at the end of January, CNN revealed the Border Patrol chief had also lost access to his X account, where he was known as a vigorous poster. Now Bovino is back in a big way. He returned to his X trolling yesterday, replying to posts including one from Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, who’d called for his ouster. “Perhaps we could meet for a sugar-free slice of heirloom apple pie — on me!” Bovino wrote jovially in response. LYONS BACK IN THE CAGE: Back in Washington, acting ICE Director Todd Lyons, CPB Commissioner Rodney Scott and USCIS Director Joseph Edlow are returning to the Hill today, this time testifying before the Senate Homeland Security Committee at 9 a.m. The trio have already faced a grilling from Democrats on the House Homeland Security Committee this week, with Lyons defending his officers and refusing to apologize to the families of Renee Good and Alex Pretti. ONE DAY MORE: DHS appears on track for a shutdown tomorrow night, and there’s no telling how long it could last, our Inside Congress colleagues write. The White House last night sent Congress the legislative text of its immigration enforcement counterproposal, but Dems aren’t on board, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney and Myah Ward report. Senators are pushing ahead with doomed votes today. Congress is in recess next week, and several senators are eager to make it to the Munich Security Conference or back home to campaign, even without a deal in hand. More from POLITICO’s Inside Congress
| | | | POLITICO Governors Summit Join POLITICO's annual Governors Summit, held alongside the National Governors Association’s Winter Meeting, for a series of forward-looking conversations with governors from across the country about how state leaders are setting the agenda for America’s next chapter. Hear from Gov. Wes Moore (D), Gov. Kevin Stitt (R), and more. Register Now. | | | | | BEST OF THE REST FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: House Oversight Committee Democrats today are releasing a report slamming DOGE for “breaking the government,” according to a copy obtained by Playbook’s Irie Sentner. The report marks the latest escalation of ranking member Robert Garcia’s (D-Calif.) push to make oversight of the Trump administration a key part of Democrats’ midterm strategy. The report’s release will be paired with a so-called “shadow field hearing” in Northern Virginia this afternoon featuring testimony from government employees harmed by the DOGE cuts. Oversight Democrats are also planning a similar shadow hearing on the Epstein files in Palm Beach, Florida, on April 14. Read the report RACE OF THE DAY: Americans for Prosperity Action, the political arm of the powerful conservative Koch network, has placed a seven-figure ad buy for Michael Whatley’s Senate campaign in North Carolina, the group’s first TV ad buy of the 2026 cycle, POLITICO’s Alec Hernández scoops. The early investment marks a significant splash for the Trump-backed former RNC chair in a high-stakes seat in what’s expected to be one of the most expensive races in the country. Whatley raised $3.8 million in 2025’s final FEC filing period — about half of the $7 million haul posted by Democratic candidate Roy Cooper. Watch the 30-second spot EYES ON IRAN: “Pentagon Prepares Second Aircraft Carrier to Deploy to the Middle East,” by WSJ’s Lara Seligman and colleagues: “The Pentagon has told a second aircraft carrier strike group to prepare to deploy to the Middle East as the U.S. military readies for a potential attack on Iran, according to three U.S. officials.”
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| | | | LIFE COMES AT YOU FAST: Yesterday afternoon, Donald Kinsella was appointed by a panel of federal judges to serve as interim U.S. attorney in New York’s Northern District. Five hours later, he was fired by the White House, the Albany Times Union’s Brendan Lyons scooped. Speaking to NYT’s Jonah Bromwich, Kinsella said he “did not yet know whether the White House email carried the force of law.” POLL HOLE: “Gallup will no longer measure presidential approval after 88 years,” by The Hill’s Dominick Mastrangelo: “President Trump has seen his rating by the agency slip in recent months, peaking at 47 percent last February and dipping to less than 37 percent in its last poll taken in December.” FOR YOUR RADAR: “Ukrainian Olympian Is Disqualified Over Helmet With Images of War Dead,” by NYT’s Victor Mather: “Olympic officials had told the athlete, Vladyslav Heraskevych, that the helmet violated the Games’ prohibition on political speech. Mr. Heraskevych, who competes in skeleton, a sledding event on an ice track, had said this week that he planned to race with the helmet anyway.”
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➡️ Subscribe Now | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | NEWS FROM THE COCKTAIL CIRCUIT — For foreign diplomats, the plum job of ambassador to Washington used to be the best gig in town. Grand Washington premises, endless cocktail parties, friendly chit-chat at the White House. But these days, the anointing of a new ambassador to D.C. is frequently greeted back home with a hollow laugh, one such post-holder tells Playbook. It's hardly surprising, given recent events. Britain’s new ambassador, Christian Turner, arrived in D.C. last week and will be praying for a softer landing than that of his predecessor, Peter Mandelson, sent home in disgrace after just six months when details of his close relationship with Jeffrey Epstein were revealed by the DOJ. The diplomatic churn in Trump’s Washington is brutal. Canada’s new ambassador, Mark Wiseman, arrives this weekend, and must be wondering what he’s walking into as Trump’s barrage of economic and verbal attacks on Canada continues. Australia, too, has a new ambassador arriving soon — with the last guy (Kevin Rudd) having departed shortly after Trump told a room full of reporters how much he disliked him. All fare better than South Africa, now almost a year without a U.S. ambassador after the last one was expelled by Trump. NEED A DRINK? Any nervous new diplomats should probably be drowning their sorrows at MAGA hangout Butterworth’s, where owner Raheem Kassam tells Playbook’s Adam Wren he is maintaining its grand “Ambassador’s Sofa” — despite its somewhat checkered start to life. The plaque giving the seat its title was unveiled at a glitzy party with Mandelson, shortly after he arrived last year. Kassam explains: “When he was confirmed, one of the first things [Mandelson] did was, via his staff, reached out to me and said, ‘You know, I’d like to have a sit down,’ blah, blah, blah,” said Kassam, who was no fan of Mandelson even before the latest revelations. “So he comes over with his staff, sprawls out on the couch … and says, ‘Oh, this is wonderful. I should love if there was a plaque in my name on this couch. I love this Victorian sofa.’” Thus, “The Ambassador’s Sofa” was born, with a plaque fixed to the wall beside the seat. But Kassam emphasized that it was never intended as an “honor” for Mandelson. “When he was fired, I contemplated for a minute removing it,” Kassam said. “And then I thought to myself, ‘No, there's a reason I called it The Ambassador’s Sofa.’ … We’re on Capitol Hill. We get dignitaries in all the time. It's a nice thing to have, for generic purposes, so we’ve left it up.” Plus, they’ve replaced the Victorian sofa for a different couch now anyway, Kassam said. SPEAKING OF BUTTERWORTH'S — One Democratic insider is now creating their own “Butterworth’s for like-minded individuals,” Washingtonian’s Jessica Sidman reports. Rhonda Foxx, who served as national women’s engagement director for both the Biden and Harris campaigns, has opened Civic, a cafe and bar “serving coffee and pastries by day and, soon, cocktails and wine in evenings.” Foxx said she didn’t want the space to be overtly political — but “if you know, you know.” The problem, of course, is that D.C. is already a deep-blue city. “‘Why don't we have a lib Butterworth’s?’ Er... you mean like every other restaurant and coffee shop in DC?” White House deputy press secretary Abigail Jackson said on X. OUT AND ABOUT — Fresh off a grilling on the Hill earlier this week, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hosted his annual winter party last night at his Georgetown home. SPOTTED: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, HUD Secretary Scott Turner, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, Education Secretary Linda McMahon, Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Dave McCormick (R-Pa.), House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Stephen Miller, NEC Director Kevin Hassett, Dan Scavino, Will Scharf, Michael Kratsios, Margo Martin, CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz, Kevin McCarthy, Ryosei Akazawa, Alex Karp, Mary Barra, Jim Farley, Brad Smith, Maria Bartiromo, Sanjay Mehrotra, Lip-Bu Tan and Lindsey Halligan. NOT RUNNING … YET — Trump adviser Alex Bruesewitz wants to make clear he’s not considering a bid to replace retiring Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Fla.), who has sparked concerns among Republicans over speculation that he may leave the chamber early and further thin the majority. “Not sure where this ‘rumor’ started, but I have no plans to run for office this election cycle,” Bruesewitz said on X. (We couldn’t help but notice the phrasing: “this election cycle.”) CENTER OF ATTENTION — “Kennedy Center fundraising in deep turmoil after Trump takeover,” by POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman: “Trump has brought in his top fundraiser to shore up giving at the Kennedy Center after a series of stumbles by its development leader, a former TV host close to Kari Lake … Trump intervened in January and tapped his longtime supporter Meredith O’Rourke to stabilize the Kennedy Center’s fundraising operation, in a move that effectively sidelined senior vice president Lisa Dale.” POLITICO GATHERS THE GOVS — As the nation’s governors descend on D.C. for the National Governors Association’s Winter Meeting, POLITICO will once again convene our annual Governors Summit on Thursday, Feb. 19. Expect a day of conversations on the topics driving 2026 — from AI to housing affordability — and, of course, plenty of midterm intrigue. The roster so far: North Dakota’s Kelly Armstrong, Utah’s Spencer Cox, Ohio’s Mike DeWine, Maryland’s Wes Moore, Colorado’s Jared Polis and Oklahoma’s Kevin Stitt. Additional speakers TBA. Doors open at 8:30 a.m. at the Grand Hyatt Washington. Register here TRANSITIONS — Sebastian Troëng is now CEO of Conservation International after nearly 20 years in senior executive roles at the organization. … Cylee Gutting is joining The Herald Group as a strategic alliances director. He most recently worked at Consilium Consulting. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Justice Brett Kavanaugh … Rep. Gil Cisneros (D-Calif.) … Jon Finer … Axios’ Jim VandeHei and Marc Caputo … MS NOW’s Eugene Daniels … Susan Page … NYT’s Maya King … Megan Bates-Apper … The Atlantic’s Chris Suellentrop … WaPo’s Marianna Sotomayor … David Brody … POLITICO’s Kristen East … Chris Hodgson … Justin Shockey of House Majority Whip Tom Emmer’s office … Ali Lapp … Thomas Peterson of Percipient Strategies … Christina Noel … Adam Webb of Sen. Thom Tillis’ (R-N.C.) office … Trish Hoppey … Charlotte Sellmyer of the National Music Publishers’ Association … BBC’s Chloe Ross … Robert Zeliger … Jennifer Lukawski of BGR Group … Boeing’s Kristin Gossel … Raj Bharwani … Lewis Lowe … Enel Clean Energy Buyers Association’s Kyle Davis … Bridget Anzano … Semafor’s Maria Awad … Barbara Zylinski … Ben Sherwood … 515 Group’s Michael Stwarka … BBC’s Bernd Debusmann … David Reid of Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck … Cornerstone Government Affairs’ John Buscher … Christine Jacobs Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.
| | | | A message from AHIP: 35 Million Seniors Could See Reduced Benefits and Higher Costs
Health plans welcome reforms to strengthen Medicare Advantage. However, a proposal for flat program funding at a time of sharply rising medical costs and high utilization of care will directly impact seniors' coverage. If finalized, this proposal could result in benefit reductions and higher costs for 35 million seniors and people with disabilities when they renew their Medicare Advantage coverage in October 2026. Learn more. | | | | | | | | Follow us on X | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Canada Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | |
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