Current Affairs Of Pakistan & World: The only thing that matters about tonight’s speech

The only thing that matters about tonight’s speech

Feb 24, 2026

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With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray

On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Dasha tee up tonight’s State of the Union address.

Good Tuesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, wishing a happy State of the Union to all who celebrate. Get in touch with your plans (and survival tips) for tonight.

HOWEVER LONG AND HARD THE ROAD MAY BE: Today marks the fourth anniversary of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. An estimated 1.8 million people have been killed or injured — two-thirds of them Russian — in Europe’s most serious land war since WWII. There’s no sign of Putin calling it quits, although Bloomberg reports overnight that President Donald Trump wants a peace deal in time for the USA 250 celebrations on July 4.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: “Election betting boom sparks midterm brawl in California,” by POLITICO’s Christine Mui in San Francisco: “Eric Swalwell has made a habit of posting and sending out screenshots of his betting odds in the race for California governor. … [H]e’s hardly alone in tracking performance on the platforms, where millions of dollars are flowing, and politicians are starting to promote wagers — alongside more traditional metrics like polling and fundraising — to demonstrate momentum in the midterms.”

It’s a big trend to watch this year … and not everyone’s happy. “The wide-open race for governor in the country’s most populous state is emerging as a new front for betting,” Christine writes, “while raising alarms over the risk of insider trading and the nascent industry’s proximity to Trump.” Gov. Gavin Newsom told reporters recently: “There was some prediction market [for] how many times I was going to say the word ‘Trump’ in a speech, and I knew exactly the answer to that. I guess legally, I could have bet. That’s an issue that you may all want to take a look at.”

In today’s Playbook …

— Trump addresses Congress at 9 p.m. — we’ll tell you what matters.

— Newsom faces MAGA world pile-on over book tour comments.

— Rubio to brief congressional leaders on Iran as Trump mulls air strikes.

DRIVING THE DAY

YOU HAD ONE JOB: Only one thing matters about tonight’s State of the Union address. Can President Donald Trump stay on-message before his biggest TV audience of the year?

The stakes are high. It’s an election year, and Trump is polling worse than ever. He’s underwater on what should be his strongest suits — the economy and immigration. He’s started losing votes in Congress, and a case at the Supreme Court. He’s getting forced into U-turns. His signature economic policy just got torpedoed. And while Dems unite around an affordability message, the right is not the happiest ship.

A year is a long time in politics: “We were 1,000 percent on offense a year ago,” one former Trump official tells POLITICO’s Eli Stokols for his essential walkup to tonight’s speech. “We felt like we were firing on all cylinders. And early on, we didn’t have many points for scrutiny. Now, a year in, there is a record to kind of hang the president on. That makes this much more challenging.”

So this SOTU matters more than most — an opportunity for the president to reach beyond the diehard fans and the hyper-engaged. Most people do not watch Trump’s daily press gaggles or weekly(ish) campaign stops — but over 30 million viewers are expected to tune in live tonight, close to one-in-three expected midterm voters. Plenty more will see the clips.

Republicans in Congress, well attuned to the mood in their districts, know what needs to be done. So too do Trump’s smartest White House aides, who pore over the data on a daily basis. Every opinion poll tells them the exact same thing — the cost of living is America’s biggest concern by a mile.

House Republicans will do their bit. A good portion will spend today trumpeting the (rebranded) “Working Families Tax Cut,” including Trump’s pledges to cut taxes on tips and overtime, a person familiar told Playbook. Multiple members — Reps. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.), Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.) and Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas), among them — are bringing guests specifically to message the benefits of Trump’s marquee policy. The White House will surely swap out Trump’s usual culture war guests this year for grateful tax cut recipients and thriving small business owners.

But Trump has always been their best salesman. “It’s about making these policies real, which President Trump has historically done very well,” the person familiar said. Expect policy announcements on the economic theme — including (per the WSJ) plans to force tech firms to pay increased electricity costs in communities where AI data centers are being built.

And Trump has a powerful story to tell. There are plenty of positive economic stats to choose from, and the administration’s border numbers are significant. There are real-world tax cuts and drug price reductions to boast about. Wages are up, gas prices are down. Mortgage rates are finally starting to move.

But none if it will be enough if the president strays too far off course. Will struggling Americans be told their affordability crisis has been “solved”? That it was all a Democratic “hoax?” Will we get the infamous line (for a third time) about kids making do with fewer dolls, fewer pencils? Trump’s longtime speechwriter Ross Worthington will be watching through his fingers, if so.

A message from AHIP:

35 Million Seniors Could See Reduced Benefits and Higher Costs. Health plans welcome reforms to strengthen Medicare Advantage. However, a proposal for flat program funding at a time of sharply rising medical costs and high utilization of care will directly impact seniors' coverage. If finalized, this proposal could result in benefit reductions and higher costs for 35 million seniors and people with disabilities when they renew their Medicare Advantage coverage in October 2026. Learn more.

And there’s another real danger — that the clips people see in their social media feeds tomorrow are not focused on their own lives, but instead show an angry president picking fights with half the room. Obviously, the days when SOTU was a bipartisan affair are long gone — but when Trump takes the dais tonight, he’ll see perceived enemies in every corner of the chamber.

Sitting right before him will be the Supreme Court justices who last week delivered the most crushing blow to Trump’s second term thus far, ruling his tariffs illegal. Trump has already described Justices Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett as “an embarrassment to their families” and suggested the court is motivated by foreign interests. If he attacks the justices to their faces tonight — on the very day his tariffs are officially cancelled — it’s going to be a massive story.

And then there’s the Republican Party. Scattered throughout will be Republican senators whom Trump has targeted these past few weeks for defying orders. They include Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski and North Carolina’s Thom Tillis (“losers” and “terrible senators”), Kentucky’s Rand Paul (“really BAD … a nasty ‘liddle’ guy”), plus Missouri’s Josh Hawley, Maine’s Susan Collins and Indiana’s Todd Young (“should never be elected to office again.”). On the House side, a furious Trump recently threatened “serious consequences” for six Republicans — Reps. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.), Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), Jeff Hurd (R-Colo.), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) and Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.) — who voted against his tariffs.

One of a kind: Massie, of course, belongs in a category all of his own, having led the bipartisan charge to release the Epstein files. This month Trump called Massie a "moron" while attacking his new wife as a “Radical Left flamethrower,” despite the fact she’s a former GOP official. She’ll be in the audience tonight as well.

And that’s before you get onto the Democrats — with one of Trump’s favored punching bags, Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), confirmed to be attending tonight. Her office said she’ll be bringing four Minnesotans whose lives have been "devastated" by “Operation Metro Surge”.

None of this bodes too well for Republicans hoping for a focused, persuasive speech on the key White House message to voters in 2026 — stick with the GOP’s economic plan, rather than handing the keys back to Dems who (Republicans claim) crashed the car. Of course, Trump didn’t get where he is today by being an autocue-friendly politician. But successfully attacking your opponents is one thing. Successfully defending your record is quite another — and as we saw in 2020, it’s not an area this president has always excelled.

A WORD ON THE DEMOCRATS: For their official response, the Dems have chosen newly elected Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger — an understated figure from the moderate wing who has proven the cost-of-living message can win elections against Trump 2.0. The risk is that she underwhelms. The Democratic gamble is she looks sensible in comparison. Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) will deliver the Spanish-language response.

But a significant number of Democratic lawmakers will be out on the National Mall instead of in the chamber, at a protest rally denouncing Trump. Others may walk out and join the protest partway through. And many of those who are attending the speech plan on bringing guests designed to embarrass or unsettle the president. They include a long list of Epstein survivors, whose presence has the potential to create a powerful image tonight.

Other questions to ponder: Will one Dem “do an Al Green” and try to take on the president directly? Will Trump — who’s already promised us a "long speech” — top last year’s 99-minute record, and hit the three-figure mark? And who’s going to be the designated survivor, after Interior Secretary Doug Burgum got the gig last year? Watch this space.

A message from AHIP:

PLANET DEM

HAPPY PUB DAY: Gavin Newsom’s new memoir, “Young Man in a Hurry,” is out today — with the California governor facing a MAGA world pile-on over comments he made on his book tour over the weekend.

Anatomy of a row: A snippet from a Newsom event with Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens went viral in right-wing circles, after the End Wokeness X account claimed to its nearly 4 million followers that Newsom had said to a Black crowd, “I’m like you. … I’m a 960 SAT guy. … I cannot read a speech.” Everyone from Sens. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and Tim Scott (R-S.C.) to the Trump War Room to Nicki Minaj pounced, accusing Newsom of racist condescension to Black people. Last night Trump himself intervened, translating the moment as: “Wow! Gavin Newscum just dropped out of the Presidential Race!!!”

Just one problem: Newsom has made the same SAT comment multiple times before, repeatedly framing his struggles with dyslexia and academics as experiences that make him relatable to the average American. And the audience to which Newsom was speaking was actually mixed-race, his office told the LA Times’ Taryn Luna. Newsom was quick to make hay out of the hubbub. But expect MAGA world to keep hammering away at this one for a while.

ONE WEEK TO GO IN TEXAS: Seven days out from Election Day, what Democrats are really excited about are early-voting trends in the Texas primary. In Harris County, data from the first few days analyzed by local official Levi Asher shows a lot of voters pulling Democratic ballots who haven’t voted much in primaries before — especially young and Hispanic people. But Texas data guy Derek Ryan cautions that if you focus on crossover voters, “the net increase in votes for Democrats in November (based ONLY on the people who have voted in this primary) isn’t as big as one would think.”

REDISTRICTING RODEO: Democrats are one step closer to gaining a congressional seat in Utah, after federal judges again rejected Republicans’ effort to stop the new map, per The Salt Lake Tribune’s Robert Gehrke. But Maryland Gov. Wes Moore is all but out of time for his own effort to deepen Democrats’ gerrymander in the state; today is Maryland’s candidate filing deadline, and senators in Annapolis haven’t budged. POLITICO’s Andrew Howard has a useful round-up of all the ongoing redistricting cases.

UNDER THE RADAR: Two Democrats today are launching bids for Georgia’s state Supreme Court ahead of the election in May, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein scoops. The race could be a highly significant one, given Trump’s ongoing interest in election integrity in the state. Jen Jordan is challenging Justice Sarah Warren, and Miracle Rankin will go up against Justice Charlie Bethel.

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WAR AND PEACE

IRAN LATEST: Secretary of State Marco Rubio will brief the “Gang of Eight” on Iran this afternoon as the drumbeat of war gets louder, NewsNation’s Libbey Dean scooped. It follows multiple reports that Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. Dan “Razin” Caine has warned Trump that strikes could trigger a lengthy military entanglement. “While Caine was all-in on the Venezuela operation, he has been more cautious in the discussions around Iran,” Axios’ Barak Ravid and Marc Caputo report. VP JD Vance has also asked questions about the risks, they report.

Must-read: Reza Pahlavi, the shah’s son who was long considered something of a “political amateur,” has lately stepped up an aggressive — some might say Trumpian — political blitz to position himself as the chief alternative to Iran’s current regime, POLITICO’s Nahal Toosi writes this morning. And it just might work.

BRAVE NEW WORLD: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will meet with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei this morning, as the military and the company clash over restrictions on the Pentagon’s use of the AI model. “This is not a friendly meeting,” a top DOD official told Axios’ Dave Lawler and Maria Curi. “This is a sh*t-or-get-off-the-pot meeting.” Anthropic doesn’t want its product used for domestic mass surveillance or human-free weapons, but Hegseth will threaten Amodei with a supply-chain ultimatum. One possible replacement (or piece of leverage): Grok. The tool from Elon Musk’s xAI can now be used in DOD classified systems, NYT’s Julian Barnes and Sheera Frenkel scooped. Google is also near an agreement for its Gemini model.

OH, AND THIS IS STILL HAPPENING: U.S. Southern Command announced yet another strike on an alleged drug-trafficking boat in the Caribbean, which left three people dead, per CBS.

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BEST OF THE REST

SCANDAL IN SAN ANTONIO: Political pressure is mounting over Rep. Tony Gonzales’ (R-Texas) alleged affair with a staffer who later killed herself. At least five of his GOP colleagues called on Gonzales to resign — with prominent GOP women leading the charge, per POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill. Congressional Democratic Women’s Caucus leader Rep. Teresa Leger Fernández (D-N.M.) also weighed in. An internal poll for hard-right gun advocate Brandon Herrera, who’s challenging Gonzales in next week’s primary, shows the YouTuber way ahead of the moderate incumbent, per the NY Post’s Josh Christenson.

ANOTHER TRIUMPH: WaPo’s Marianne LeVine and colleagues report that it was DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and aide Corey Lewandowski’s idea to suspend TSA Precheck as the limited government shutdown continues — only for the decision to be quickly reversed once the White House got involved.

MORE CDC UPHEAVAL: “Ralph Abraham, No. 2 official at CDC, abruptly steps down,” by Stat’s Helen Branswell: “A statement posted to the CDC’s website said [Ralph] Abraham, a former Louisiana surgeon general who was sworn in as the agency’s deputy secretary general only 2 1/2 months ago, stepped down to address ‘unforeseen family obligations.’”

DAVID SACKS STRIKES AGAIN: “White House Takes Stand Against DeSantis AI Bill,” by The Daily Signal’s Elizabeth Troutman Mitchell: “The White House is engaging against a Florida bill that would establish limits on artificial intelligence, including protections for minors.”

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TALK OF THE TOWN

AMBO WATCH — Playbook noted this month that being an ambassador to Washington isn’t the gig it used to be — and things have certainly turned quickly for Britain’s now-disgraced Peter Mandelson, who was released by British cops overnight after nine hours of questioning in London following his arrest over revelations in the Epstein files.

Trump’s own overseas envoys aren’t having the easiest time of it, either. First Mike Huckabee caused a diplomatic incident by appearing to endorse an Israeli takeover of the entire Middle East. (Team Trump has been calling round Arab nations to try to smooth things over, POLITICO’s Felicia Schwartz scooped.) And now Trump’s man in France, the ever-colorful Charles Kushner, after failing to attend a government summons over comments he made about the death of a far-right activist has been banned from talking to French ministers. Isn’t liaising with the host government sort of the entire point of an ambassador?

PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — More than a year on from the fatal plane crash over the Potomac, the House will vote today on the ROTOR Act, the first significant air safety legislation response, POLITICO’s Sam Ogozalek and colleagues report. The bipartisan bill passed the Senate unanimously last year, and Speaker Mike Johnson has teed it up for the House on a fast track. But there’s a competing bipartisan bill, the ALERT Act, from House committee chairs who have qualms with the Senate legislation. And it’s not clear how today’s vote will go.

A last-minute twist: Though Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy lauded the ROTOR Act when it passed the Senate, the Defense Department yesterday changed course from its previous support and warned of concerns about “budgetary burdens and operational security risks.” The White House didn’t weigh in directly, instead referring reporters to DOD.

IN MEMORIAM — John Angell died Feb. 12 at 72, with a funeral mass taking place this Thursday morning. His career included working as a top aide to Leon Panetta at the House Budget Committee, OMB and the White House, as well as stints at the Energy Department and Senate Finance Committee. He most recently worked as an adjunct professor at GW. Angell also suffered chronic pain and depression resulting from anthrax exposure in the 2001 attack. His full obituary

SPOTTED: Joe Manchin walking into the White House complex yesterday.

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at Good Influence’s pre-SOTU event for Democratic media: Carlos Espina, Jack Cocchiarella, C.J. Warnke, Clarke Humphrey, Amanda Nelson, Ellie Langford, Patrick Stevenson, Atanu Chakravarty, Brenna Perez, Tim Fullerton, Kyle Tharp, Hal Irish, Dan Gottlieb and Kate Vibbert.

— Newly minted British Ambassador Christian Turner hosted a reception at his residence last night to kick off his tenure and celebrate his return to D.C. after more than 20 years. Guests had fish and chips and “Turner Tonic” cocktails, and Turner lauded the transatlantic relationship: “We’re not allies, we are family,” he said, noting the 250th anniversary of 1776’s “glorious defeat.” Turner also said he looked forward to D.C.’s “peace and quiet” after postings in Kenya and Pakistan. SPOTTED: Claire Turner, Chief Justice John Roberts and Jane Roberts, Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), Reps. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) and Jim Himes (D-Conn.), CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz and Lisa Oz, Sean Cairncross, John Coale, Elbridge Colby, Lynda Carter, James Roscoe, French Ambassador Laurent Bili, Chinese Ambassador Xie Feng, Spanish Ambassador Ángeles Bau, Canadian Ambassador Mark Wiseman, Finnish Ambassador Leena-Kaisa Mikkola, Irish Ambassador Geraldine Byrne Nason, Douglas Bradburn, Natalie Jones, Deborah Lehr, Jeffrey Kessler, Sally Quinn, Alexa Verveer, Jennifer Griffin, Sumi Somaskanda, Andrea Mitchell, Josh Dawsey, Steve Ricchetti, David Ignatius, Shawn McCreesh, Sarakshi Rai, John McCarthy and Tammy Haddad.

NEWS FROM THE GOLDEN STATE — Melanie Mason is POLITICO’s new California bureau chief and Playbook co-author. Melanie joined POLITICO in 2023, and her move reflects the strength of our California team and the ambition for its flagship newsletter. Recent hires also include Daniel Miller, POLITICO’s new Hollywood, technology, sports and media reporter, and Liam Dillon, POLITICO’s first-ever reporter dedicated to covering housing issues in the state.

MEDIA MOVES — Emily Ngo is joining NBC as a writer and editor of the Inside Scoop newsletter. She most recently worked at POLITICO. … Matt Peterson will be senior economics writer at CNBC. He most recently worked at Barron’s and is an Atlantic alum. … William Turton is now a national reporter at ProPublica covering the FBI and the Department of Justice. He is a Wired and Bloomberg alum.

TRANSITIONS — Jess Moore is joining the Aerospace Industries Association as VP of legislative affairs. She previously has worked at GE Aerospace, and is a Textron and State Department alum. … Brooke Nethercott is now director of public affairs at the CFTC. She previously worked for the House Financial Services Committee and Chair French Hill (R-Ark.). … Bradley Solyan is now director of government relations at Porter Group. He previously was chief of staff for Rep. Lois Frankel (D-Fla.), who has now added or elevated Becca Flikier as chief of staff, Carolyn Perlmutter as legislative director and Carlin Reyen as staff assistant/legislative correspondent. …

… Rob Damschen is now executive director of public affairs with Bristol Myers Squibb. He previously worked for Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, and is a National Association of Manufacturers alum. … Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) is adding or elevating Lauren O’Brien as chief of staff, Greg Warren as legislative director and Jorie Allen as press assistant. … Sydney Long is now director of comms at Frontline Strategies. She previously worked for Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.).

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Rudy Yakym (R-Ind.) … MS NOW’s Jackie Alemany … Bruce Andrews … SKDK’s Karen Olick … Devin Lynch … Jacqueline Hackett … Cliff May … NYT’s Kate Kelly and Sabrina Tavernise … Mark Salter … Juliet K. Choi … Julie Adams of the Senate sergeant-at-arms office … McLaurine Pinover … POLITICO’s Connor O’Brien, Mark Matthews and Molly Rufus … Abram Olmstead … Kelly Craft … Kate Kelly … Paula Zahn … former Rep. Chris Chocola (R-Ind.) … Andrew Giacini … former acting Massachusetts Gov. Jane Swift … Josh Gardner … Karen Persichilli Keogh … Amazon’s Lindsay Hamilton … BGR Group’s Chelsea Mincheff … Allison Branca … Rebecca Bernbach Graves … Doug Ritter of General Dynamics … Emily Feldman … Christina Cameron … Blake Waggoner … Kevin Lewis

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.

Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misattributed a quote about Iran’s bomb-making capabilities. Special envoy Steve Witkoff said Iran is “probably a week away from having industrial-grade bomb-making material.”

A message from AHIP:

35 Million Seniors Could See Reduced Benefits and Higher Costs

Health plans welcome reforms to strengthen Medicare Advantage. However, a proposal for flat program funding at a time of sharply rising medical costs and high utilization of care will directly impact seniors' coverage. If finalized, this proposal could result in benefit reductions and higher costs for 35 million seniors and people with disabilities when they renew their Medicare Advantage coverage in October 2026. Learn more.