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By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns |
Presented by |
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With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Dasha discuss the latest crisis in Iran, the MAGA world fallout from the Hungarian election — and the return of Congress this week.
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Good Monday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, sending tea and sympathy (and emergency Bluey episodes) to every parent juggling work and family in D.C. this spring break. The struggle is real. Get in touch. NEW THIS MORNING: The Cook Political Report is shifting its ratings of four crucial Senate races toward Democrats, in the latest sign of the party’s growing momentum. Georgia and North Carolina have both moved out of toss-up status to lean Democratic, CPR’s Jessica Taylor writes. Ohio shuttles from leaning Republican squarely into toss-up territory. And she sees Nebraska coming on the competitive board, now classified as likely instead of solid Republican. But but but: Taylor still sees Republicans as favorites to hold the Senate, with Dems likely to net between one and three additional seats — but not the four they need. TOUGH WEEKEND FOR JD: First came the vice president’s failed 21-hour negotiation in Pakistan. Then the crushing election defeat for his pal Viktor Orbán in Hungary. JD Vance must have been just about ready to hit the hay last night after a difficult weekend when … his boss started attacking the Pope on social meda. Pope on the ropes: President Donald Trump’s Truth Social diatribe (“Pope Leo is WEAK on Crime, and terrible for Foreign Policy…”), which followed Leo’s criticism of the Iran war last week, was not a one-off. The president doubled down, before posting an AI-generated image of himself as what looks like Christ the healer. What the 53 million Americans who identify as Catholic — otherwise known as 20 percent of the voting public — make of it remains to be seen. Leo responded to Trump’s attack, telling reporters earlier today: “I have no fear of the Trump administration,” per NYT’s Motoko Rich. Asked directly about Trump’s Truth, he said: “It’s ironic — the name of the site itself. Say no more.” Playbook would love to hear the thoughts of well-known Catholics like, say, first lady Melania Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and of course Vance himself, who recently finished writing a memoir about his “personal journey” back to the Catholic faith. There will be plenty to talk about on the book tour. Hungary for success: In truth, Vance has had bigger things on his mind this weekend than the president’s latest feud, having been saddled with the impossible task of trying to negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran in a single day (Obama’s “terrible deal” took 20 months, remember). And the VP got home just in time to see Orbán crushed by his conservative rival Péter Magyar in yesterday’s Hungarian election, ending 16 years of autocratic rule. Vance’s trip to Budapest to campaign alongside Orbán — who’d trailed in the polls for weeks — now looks ill-advised. And it wasn’t just Vance: Liberals are in gloat mode today — partly because Vladimir Putin just lost his closest ally in Europe, of course; but also because MAGA world threw its collective weight behind this one. Trump repeatedly endorsed Orbán during the campaign, and Rubio flew to Hungary earlier this year to show his support. Yet Magyar won in a landslide. No wonder Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer wants to draw parallels with the midterms. Time to stop gloating: The smartest take you’ll read today comes via POLITICO’s very own Alex Burns, who suggests Dems should be thinking more critically about what just happened. Alex notes that Magyar “is the latest example of a candidate to win an important election only after displacing his country’s traditional party structure,” via his upstart political operation Tisza — following in the footsteps of candidates as diverse as Emmanuel Macron and Javier Milei. In this climate, “the strongest successor to Trump — from either party — would not be a ladder climber awaiting his or her turn,” Alex writes, “but rather someone ready to claim the role through disruption and combat.” Read Alex’s column Further reading: “Orbán just lost his populist touch,” by POLITICO’s Jamie Dettmer … “Vance, Putin … Zelenskyy: The losers and winners of Hungary’s seismic election,” by POLITICO’s Max Griera In today’s Playbook … — Why the blockade is a dangerous moment for Trump and Iran. — Eric Swalwell is out of the CA governor’s race. Can he cling on in the House? — And the stunning cash haul that’s getting Dems excited in the Last Frontier.
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DRIVING THE DAY |
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BLOCK PARTY: The Iran war enters a dangerous new phase this morning when Trump’s naval blockade of Iranian ports comes into effect at 10 a.m. Eastern. This is high-risk stuff from a frustrated president, and the implications could be profound — for the war, for Iran, for international diplomacy, for the global economy … and for the midterm elections. On the war: By any measure, this is an escalatory move by the U.S., putting the six-day ceasefire under intense strain. “Blockades like this can work multiple ways,” POLITICO’s national security reporter Paul McLeary tells Playbook. “But the most likely is that the Navy will simply direct any ships leaving Iranian ports into a friendly port, most likely Duqm in Oman, which has emerged as a critical logistical hub for the U.S. Navy. Two new destroyers — USS Frank E. Peterson and USS Michael Murphy — are newly arrived in the region and hunting for Iranian sea mines, but can help nudge ships to port.” The big question is how Iran — and the ships involved — will react. “Much remains unclear,” Paul says. “If ships refuse to listen to American orders, risky boarding operations might be necessary. Iran could fire on U.S. ships trying to force commercial ships into port. Or ships might simply try to run the blockade — which would put American commanders in a tough spot.” And even without a military escalation at sea, the WSJ reports Trump is considering restarting limited strikes on Iranian targets in tandem with the blockade. But if the blockade holds, the implications for Iran will be profound. Analysts are divided about just how quickly the Iranian economy would start to suffer, but there’s no doubt choking off its main source of income could eventually prove crippling. Iran’s gamble will be that the pain inflicted on the global economy would be such that it’s America that buckles first.
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Reminder: It wasn’t long ago that Trump was lifting sanctions on Iranian oil in order to increase the global flow. “The upshot now is that even the trickle of vessels that had been transiting Hormuz may dry up, potentially leading to even less oil reaching the global market.” POLITICO’s energy guru Ben Lefebvre tells Playbook. “U.S. oil prices shot up by $8 a barrel Sunday evening on the news.” And then there’s the diplomatic fallout: “Trump’s blockade could draw Beijing further into this mess, given China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil,” Ben notes. “What will happen if/when a U.S. naval ship tries to stop an oil tanker heading to China? We might find out this week.” Reminder: Trump’s summit with President Xi Jinping in Beijing is one month away. Congressional Republicans, whose obsession remains winning elections, will be watching all of this with the greatest sense of dread. The midterms are less than seven months away, and the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is still headed in the wrong direction. Gas and diesel prices are still rising, and even the speaker of Iran’s parliament is rubbing it in. Trump’s answer to Fox News’ Maria Bartiromo isn’t going to help. Her look of surprise when Trump suggested oil and gas prices might be higher by November went utterly viral yesterday. The president may want to hone that answer a bit before he hits the campaign trail in Nevada and Arizona this week.
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ON THE HILL FAREWELL TO DISNEY WORLD: Lawmakers return to Washington today after a two-week recess which saw a little more scrutiny than usual, thanks to TMZ. But the party’s over now: some long and difficult legislative weeks lie ahead. And yet the talk of the Hill today will be scandal-hit Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) — and a growing number of his peers who could also face expulsion efforts from the House. The cascade: Swalwell suspended his gubernatorial campaign last night after a bevy of sexual misconduct allegations, admitting “mistakes in judgment” but saying he’ll “fight the serious, false allegations.” Lawmakers from both parties over the weekend called for both Swalwell and Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) to be booted from Congress, POLITICO’s Cheyanne Daniels reports. Members could try to force votes on their expulsion, with Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) threatening to do so for Swalwell this week. Others are considering moves against scandal-plagued Reps. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.) and Cory Mills (R-Fla.), Axios’ Andrew Solender reports. But success is no guarantee: Any expulsion vote has to cross the high bar of two-thirds support. Softer outcomes, like censure votes or calls for resignation, are also possible. (Meanwhile, DHS is investigating whether Swalwell illegally employed a Brazilian nanny, POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman scooped.) The fallout in California: “Swalwell’s sudden exit injects even more uncertainty into California’s most fluid governor's race in a generation,” POLITICO’s man in Sacramento Jeremy White tells Playbook. “The likeliest beneficiaries are former Rep. Katie Porter and billionaire Tom Steyer, who consistently registered in the top poll tier with Swalwell. A POLITICO poll found Porter was the most common second choice for Swalwell supporters.” Back on the Hill: Beyond the reverberations of scandal, Congress has plenty to attend to. Republicans will try to unify behind events tied to Tax Day on Wednesday, which the party hopes will be the start of Americans feeling tangible financial benefits from new GOP policies, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill reports. “It’s all we have to run on,” one House Republican tells her. But as ever, the Iran war looms large, with war powers resolutions likely in both chambers this week. Inside Congress breaks it down And there’s more: The Senate will return to its fraught, likely fruitless, SAVE America Act debate. … The partial DHS shutdown (still ongoing!) will continue to pit House and Senate Republicans against each other over how to proceed. … The GOP push toward a new reconciliation bill focused on immigration enforcement funding will heat up. … The House will delve back into the fight over which major aviation safety reform should triumph. … The Jeffrey Epstein files brouhaha has fresh energy, courtesy of the first lady. … And the deadline to reauthorize FISA’s Section 702 surveillance authority is just one week away.
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TRAIL MIX SCOOP: Alaska Democrat Mary Peltola reeled in $8.9 million for her Senate bid in the first quarter of the year, POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky scoops. It’s quite the haul for a relatively inexpensive state — her campaign says it’s a Q1 Senate record in the state — though Alaska Republicans have survived fundraising deficits before. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: In the Ohio gubernatorial race, Democrat Amy Acton raised more than $4.8 million in the first quarter, Playbook’s Eli Okun scoops. That brings her total fundraising so far to $9.3 million, which her campaign calls a record for Ohio gubernatorial Dems at this stage in the year. RACE FOR THE HOUSE: Scranton, Pennsylvania, Mayor Paige Cognetti raised over $1.4 million in Q1 and has nearly $2 million on hand for her Democratic House bid, Lisa scoops. It comes days after Speaker Mike Johnson fundraised for incumbent GOP Rep. Rob Bresnahan during a campaign swing through Pennsylvania. SURVEY SAYS: A new poll of 2026 Texas Republican primary runoff voters conducted for a pro-John Cornyn group finds the senator slightly leading AG Ken Paxton by 1 point, 44 percent to 43 percent, with 13 percent reporting “don’t know/neither,” Adam scoops. The memo
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RACES OF THE DAY: Iowa is heating up — and Democrats are increasingly convinced that it’s in play this year. A new poll by Democratic pollster GBAO for the center-left ModSquad shows state Auditor Rob Sand with an 8-point lead in the governor’s race over GOP Rep. Randy Feenstra, Playbook’s Adam Wren scoops. In the must-watch Senate race, the memo is selling ModSquad’s preferred candidate, state Rep. Josh Turek, as the stronger general election candidate: After favorable and critical messages, GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson maintains a lead on Democratic state Sen. Zach Wahls but falls behind Turek. Wahls’ internal polls, meanwhile, have had him up by as much as 18 points in the primary. Read the memo Cue the mudslinging: Wahls spent last week slamming the Turek campaign for the $2.5 million in outside spending from VoteVets, a Schumer-allied super PAC that aims to elect Democratic veterans. At an End Citizens United forum, Wahls hit Turek over his connections to dark money, saying “dark money is how the powerful keep the system rigged.” Before launching his campaign for Senate, Wahls served as executive director at the Next 50 Network, a PAC dedicated to identifying and supporting the next generation of Democratic leaders. But his financial disclosures also list him as an “officer” of Next 50 Action, the organization’s affiliated 501(c)(4) organization — a dark money group. “Zach agrees with the Next50’s mission to elect a new generation of Democratic candidates and there was $0 in federal IE spending when he was there,” the campaign told Playbook in a statement. When asked why Wahls is listed as an officer for the c4, his campaign insisted he had no coordination with the Action side while he worked at Next 50. “The fact that Josh Turek needs Chuck Schumer to bail him out is the story, not the already widely-known fact that Zach Wahls held a position in an organization trying to elect young people.” BIG INVESTIGATION: “Inside Trump’s Effort to ‘Take Over’ the Midterm Elections,” by ProPublica’s Doug Bock Clark and Jen Fifield: “At least 75 career staff are gone. Two dozen appointees, including many from the election denial movement, have been hired. Ten helped try to overturn the 2020 vote.”
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TALK OF THE TOWN |
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GET READY FOR GRIDLOCK — The IMF-World Bank Group Spring Meetings kick off in D.C. today. Good luck getting an Uber. HEADS UP — You can expect plenty of financial news and hobnobbing this week from Semafor World Economy, a major summit that kicks off today and will bring together Cabinet secretaries, lawmakers, world leaders and hundreds of CEOs all week at the Conrad Hotel. Among the top officials tabbed to participate are Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, USTR Jamieson Greer and EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin. See the full lineup BOOK CLUB — “Tucker Carlson Books Imprint To Launch With Skyhorse Publishing,” by WSJ’s Isabella Simonetti: “[It has] the stated aim of challenging the boundaries of what legacy media deems acceptable. The label, called Tucker Carlson Books, is launching with a slate of tomes by high-profile authors, many of whom are controversial … Skyhorse said the imprint is being launched in partnership with the Tucker Carlson Network.” Among the early titles on the way: Russell Brand’s “How To Become a Christian In Seven Days,” Milo Yiannopoulos’ “Ex Gay” and Patrick Soon-Shiong’s “Killing Cancer.” OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a party in Arlington yesterday for Sarah Isgur’s new book, “Last Branch Standing: A Potentially Surprising, Occasionally Witty Journey Inside Today’s Supreme Court” ($32): Justice Brett Kavanaugh, Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) and Becca Glover, Jonathan Karl, Joan Biskupic, Pete Williams, Laura Jarrett, Jonathan Swan and Betsy Woodruff Swan, Rick Klein, Mary Katharine Ham, Kristen Soltis Anderson, Karen Travers, Mary Bruce, Jonah Goldberg, Steve Hayes, Paula Reid, Ruth Marcus, Chris Stirewalt, Amy Howe, Josh Gerstein, Jess Bravin, Sadie Gurman, James Romoser, Justin Jouvenal, Matt Zapotosky, Andrew Egger, Carrie Johnson, Sarah Baker and Kelly Laco. TRANSITIONS — Alex Nguyen is joining Salesforce’s corporate comms team. He previously was comms director for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a role that Ally Biasotti is now stepping into. … Cassie Rae Higdon is now speechwriter for the House GOP Conference. She previously worked for Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.). … … Britt Jacovich is joining Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-Vt.) team as deputy comms director. She previously worked at MoveOn. … Virginia Schaus is now press secretary for Amy Acton’s Ohio gubernatorial campaign. She previously worked at Brookings. … Halie Craig is now a senior director at Invariant. She previously worked at Origin Advocacy, and is a Senate Commerce and Pat Toomey alum. ENGAGED — Helen Huiskes, a reporter at NOTUS, and Maik Rebaum, a software engineer at Canonical, got engaged at the National Cathedral on Saturday. They met in high school in Oregon and did five years of long distance. WEEKEND WEDDINGS — Julie Morse, a senior producer at CBS News, and Ryan Goff, an account executive at Amazon, got married Saturday at Hotel Washington. Norah O’Donnell, who has worked closely with Morse for nearly a decade, officiated the wedding, which was also attended by dozens of CBS colleagues. The couple met in 2023. Pic, via Al Drago — Austin Lowe, an associate attorney in the national security regulatory practice at Simpson Thacher and a The Asia Group alum, and Victoria Yang, a venture associate at Rocktown, got married Saturday at the Church of St. Ignatius Loyola, with a reception at the New York Athletic Club. They met at a New Year’s party overlooking Central Park in 2015 and reconnected years later while back home in New York during the pandemic. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Jim Costa (D-Calif.) and Jimmy Patronis (R-Fla.) … Fed Chair-designate Kevin Warsh … Celinda Lake … Doug Coutts … Brian Bartlett … Taylor Gross of the Herald Group … POLITICO’s Jack Smith, Helen Haile and Jeffrey Tomich … CNN’s Nathaniel Meyersohn … Will Davis of the OECD Washington Center … Edelman’s Sujata Mitra … Velocity Partners’s Kate Meissner … Maggie Feldman-Piltch … C-SPAN’s Jeremy Art … Alex Yost … John Barsa … Lane 4 Consulting’s Nick Schaper … Sally Larson … Rachel McCleery … Bloomberg’s Jeannie Baumann … Ayanna Alexander of the Baltimore Sun … Julia Brunner … Jonah Cunningham … Lateshia Beachum … Dean Hingson … Rebecca Pearcey … Semafor’s Matthew Grabis … Emily Loeb … Deena Tauster of Rep. Andrew Garbarino’s (R-N.Y.) office … former Reps. Marie Newman (D-Ill.), Susan Davis (D-Calif.) and Ted Yoho (R-Fla.) … David Carmen of the Carmen Group … Meredith Stasa … former Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) … Steve Ayscue … Blue Book Services’ Jeff Cartwright … Amy Goodman … Kasey O’Brien of Middle Seat … Allie Cameron of Serco … Amy Carlile … Colleen Luccioli … Hannah Eddins of Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-Ala.) office … Justice Gilpin-Green … SKDK’s Mia Motley … American Conservation Coalition’s Will Galloway Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook incorrectly stated when Florida’s primaries will be held. They are in August.
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