Current Affairs Of Pakistan & World: Six months to go

Six months to go

May 04, 2026

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With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray

Good Monday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, fresh off a fine weekend of bluegrass and barbecue in Nashville, Tennessee. The Station Inn really is something else. Drop me a line.

TODAY: Jonathan Greenberger kicks off his first week as POLITICO’s Global Editor-in-Chief. In a note shared with readers and subscribers, Greenberger speaks to how innovation has been part of POLITICO’s DNA from the start and emphasizes continuing to evolve the ways we deliver our journalism. Read the full note here

In today’s Playbook …

— Six months to go until Election Day. What’s giving each party hope?

— The latest Republican efforts to court John Fetterman.

— The Boldfaces: Neel Kashkari, John Thune, Tim Scott, Andy Barr, Robert Garcia, Dave McCormick, Katie Britt, Rahm Emanuel, Pope Leo XIV, David McIntosh and more.

DRIVING THE DAY

THE COUNTDOWN: Six months from today, America will wake up to a new political reality. Nov. 4 — the morning after the midterms — is the moment Democrats expect the next phase of retaliation against Trump 2.0 … and the moment optimistic Republicans, at least, believe the president and his allies in Congress will be newly empowered to finish the job.

Right now, the mood among rank-and-file Republicans is desperate. “The warning signs are flashing,” one GOP operative close to the White House told Dasha last night. “For the first time ever, a majority of Americans do not have confidence in President Trump’s ability to handle the economy. Unless he and his team can reverse this reality, Republicans will pay dearly in November.”

What’s really bothering the GOP: Today also marks six months on from the disastrous off-year elections that laid bare the scale of Republicans’ plight. Since then, the dominant storylines have been ICE chaos in Minnesota, a partial government shutdown, and the war in Iran. You’ll struggle to find a GOP strategist who would’ve picked that as a defensible position.

Each side genuinely believes these elections are still up for grabs — and with reason. A six-month horizon is a good time to pulse-check both parties.

Five reasons for Democratic optimism:

1) DONALD TRUMP’S POLLING is a flat-out disaster, and would normally be the key indicator of where elections are headed. The president’s disapproval rating is at an all-time high of 62 percent, per a WaPo-ABC News-Ipsos poll published over the weekend. And his lowest poll rating of any policy area was for his handling of the cost of living — the issue that multiple surveys show Americans care about the most.

2) GAS PRICES hit an average of $4.45 a gallon over the weekend, per AAA. That’s a 30-cent rise in the past week, and up a whopping $1.28 from this time last year. The next big landmark — a national average price of $4.50 a gallon — could hit this week and would trigger another round of grim headlines. And voters know this is a price increase linked directly to Trump’s war.

3) COST OF LIVING: The price of diesel is approaching record highs, with knock-on effects for numerous goods. CPI inflation is running at 3.3 percent, higher than when Trump came to power. And the president’s hopes for a flurry of pre-election interest rate cuts once Kevin Warsh becomes Fed chair now appear slim. “I don't feel comfortable signaling that a rate cut is on the cards,” Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CBS’ “Face the Nation.” “In worse scenarios, we might have to go the other direction.”

4) TRUMP HIMSELF: There’s still no sign of the president showing the message discipline that Republicans need from their most powerful megaphone. Trump’s description last week of Dem attacks on affordability as a “good line of bullshit” was meant to be critical of his opponents. But it’s the kind of dismissive phrasing we’ve heard a lot this year when affordability is discussed — and which may come back to haunt him in the fall.

5) THE HISTORY BOOKS: You hardly need Playbook to tell you 18 of the past 20 midterm elections have seen the president’s party lose seats in the House. And so far, special and state-level elections have followed the historical trend, with Democrats over-performing everywhere.

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Five reasons for Republican optimism:

1) REDISTRICTING: Last week’s Supreme Court decision on the VRA was no knockout blow. But it could land Republicans up to four extra House seats in 2026, as POLITICO’s Andrew Howard sets out in detail this morning. Add in Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' decision last week to go all-in on redistricting, plus the possibility of a state Supreme Court ruling against the Dems’ gerrymander in Virginia, and Republicans could yield up to 12 seats more. In theory, at least.

2) DEMS BEING DEMS: Democratic operatives frequently roll their eyes when asked how they’re feeling about November, complaining their party is still capable of shooting itself in the foot. Republicans agree. Some hope a combination of poor candidate selection, confused messaging on cultural issues and the prominence of certain Democrats who they believe to be a liability with voters could yet swing the House their way.

3) DEMS BEING DEMS, PART II: People still don’t like or trust the Democratic Party as an entity. YouGov/Economist polling from last week shows generic congressional Democrats are still only marginally more popular than congressional Republicans, with an overall favorability rating of -21. This would be the least enthusiastic “blue wave” in some time.

4) TRUMP HIMSELF (AGAIN): The president can be a real campaign asset when he’s in the mood, capable of changing the discourse, dominating attention and browbeating his opponents into submission. In presidential elections, at least, his message discipline has often improved as polling day approaches. Can he pull it out of the bag for his party this time?

5) SIX MONTHS IS A LONG TIME IN POLITICS: Still the biggest reason for GOP optimism. So much can change so fast in American politics, as just about any six-month period over recent years will show you. An “unknown unknown” could yet prove the decisive factor.

But it’s starting to feel like a stretch. “The only thing giving [Republicans] hope is the VRA ruling and redistricting across the South, and if Virginia's gerrymander is blocked in court,” another person close to the White House tells Dasha.

Trump did make a fresh play to reopen the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, announcing on Truth Social the U.S. will "guide" neutral ships through the passage. But the WSJ reports this is not a plan to provide vessels with a naval escort. Instead it's “effectively a coordination cell to move traffic through the Strait,” per WSJ, “involving countries, insurance companies and shipping organizations.”

It remains to be seen how many ships fancy the risk — and how aggressively Iran will react if they do. Republicans will certainly be praying it makes a difference in the flow of oil and goods. We may get more detail from Trump in his East Room event at 3 p.m.

In today's Playbook Podcast: Jack and Dasha discuss the political picture shaping up for both parties ahead of November.

A message from The Alzheimer's Association:

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THE DOWNLOAD

JUDICIARY SQUARE: Cole Allen, the alleged shooter at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, is due to have his next court hearing at noon. POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney has more.

NEW THIS MORNING: The DCCC is rolling out its second “Red to Blue” batch, adding eight more candidates to its top-flight program to flip the House: Marlene Galán-Woods in Arizona, Jasmeet Bains in California, Jessica Killin in Colorado, Joe Baldacci in Maine, Bob Harvie and Bob Brooks in Pennsylvania, and Bobby Pulido and Johnny Garcia in Texas.

Follow the leader: Senate Majority Leader John Thune and NRSC Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) today are backing Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) in the Kentucky Senate race.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Top Oversight Committee Democrat Rep. Robert Garcia (Calif.) is calling on Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) to record and make public the testimony of former AG Pam Bondi when the committee grills her about the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files later this month, Playbook’s Irie Sentner scoops. Read the full letter

HE’S … RIDING? Rahm Emanuel, a 2028 presidential prospect, is planning a three-day, 113-mile, east-to-west “Spin-Free” bicycle tour of New Hampshire from June 5-7. The event will feature public stops each day and raise funds to provide bikes for children through QC Bike Collective.

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THE FRONT PAGE

SWITCH HITTER: Republican Sen. John Fetterman is a pipe dream … right? Maybe not, writes POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin: “It’s a scenario that’s becoming less fantastical by the day,” as the GOP privately tries to court the Pennsylvanian to either flip or go independent. Republicans would likely have Sens. Dave McCormick (R-Pa.) and Katie Britt (R-Ala.) to thank, as an isolated Fetterman gets closer socially to Republicans. But Fetterman still says no way: “I’m a Democrat, and I’m staying one.”

DON’T ROCK THE BOAT: House Democrats’ midterms messaging plan around AI plays it safe, emphasizing Americans shouldn’t be saddled with higher costs for data centers but that the U.S. must win the global AI competition, POLITICO’s Calder McHugh and Riley Rogerson report. Critics warn the party is missing the moment to show they’re fighters against AI threats.

ETHICS ENIGMA: The Hill’s recent outbreak of “Me Too” scandals has members grappling with how to handle allegations of abuse, Riley and Katherine Tully-McManus report. Some members want to strengthen formal reporting processes and enforcement; others are all in on naming and shaming. “Maybe we need to put padlocks on their zippers,” quips former Rep. Jackie Speier (D-Calif.).

A message from The Alzheimer's Association:

This is a mammogram moment for Alzheimer’s. Congress must pass the ASAP Act.

5 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

1. IMMIGRATION FILES: U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services quietly lifted a processing hold on foreign doctors in the U.S. from travel-ban countries, allowing them to keep working, NYT’s Miriam Jordan reports. On the flip side, Customs and Border Protection has quietly kept piling its immigration enforcement personnel into parts of the country far from the border, the Washington Examiner’s Anna Giaritelli scooped.

2. BILL OF HEALTH: Republican leaders are trying to tighten work requirements and push many people out of Medicaid, POLITICO’s Alice Miranda Ollstein reports. The new hurdles could lead to serious coverage changes in several states. At the same time, Republicans in D.C. hope to move many Americans onto cheaper, high-risk plans that omit more coverage, POLITICO’s Kelly Hooper reports.

3. KNIVES OUT FOR KEN MARTIN (AGAIN): As the DNC chair’s “Pod Save America” appearance unleashed another round of concerns about his leadership, some DNC members recently floated trying to oust him, The Bulwark’s Lauren Egan scooped. They stood down after struggling to find a potential replacement.

4. HOLY MOLY: Secretary of State Marco Rubio will likely meet with Pope Leo XIV on Thursday in Italy, WaPo’s Anthony Faiola and Stefano Pitrelli report. This could be a chance for Rubio to smooth things over after Trump’s broadsides — and with Italian PM Giorgia Meloni’s government.

5. QUOTE OF THE DAY: “The president is the problem,” Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, told WSJ’s Philip Wegmann and colleagues. Anti-abortion advocates are furious Trump hasn’t done more to stamp out abortion — which has risen since Roe v. Wade fell. SBA plans to spend $160 million in the 2026 and 2028 cycles for candidates who’ll take “pro-life action at the national level.”

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TALK OF THE TOWN

IN MEMORIAM: “Jack Thornell, Pulitzer Winning A.P. Photographer, Dies at 86,” by NYT’s Adam Nossiter: “He captured one of the most wrenching moments of the civil rights struggle: the agony of James Meredith after he was shot on a Mississippi highway.”

SAD NEWS: Rudy Giuliani has been hospitalized in critical but stable condition, per spokesman Ted Goodman, who asked people to pray for the former NYC mayor and said he’ll fight with the “unwavering strength” he’s always displayed.

GOLF, PART I: The nonprofit watchdog Democracy Forward filed an emergency request yesterday in federal court to halt the Trump administration’s takeover of East Potomac Golf Links, per WaPo. Late last night, per POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney, judge Ana Reyes demanded the Trump administration respond by 7:30 a.m. and appear for a hearing at 8 a.m. to answer whether it started work on the course after telling the court it wouldn’t.

GOLF, PART II: Club for Growth President David McIntosh was spotted in Trump’s box at the PGA Tour’s Cadillac Championship at Trump’s Doral golf club yesterday — two days before McIntosh will help lead Trump’s retribution tour in Indiana, trying to oust GOP state legislators who blocked a gerrymandering attempt.

TRANSITIONS — Mark Toner is joining the Center for American Progress as EVP of comms and strategy. He previously was U.S. ambassador to Liberia and is a State Department alum. … Maher Bitar will lead a rebooted National Security Action as the Democratic foreign policy group gears up for the 2028 election, per Axios’ Alex Thompson. He has previously worked for Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and is a Biden NSC alum. … Drew Pusateri is now director of strategic comms at OpenAI. He previously worked at JPMorganChase, and is a Cruise and Meta alum. …

… Elsa Alvarado is now SVP at Slingshot Strategies. She previously worked at Precision Strategies and is a Biden Pentagon alum. … Jennifer Mishory has been named the new president of The Institute for College Access & Success. She is a Biden Education Department and White House alum. … Raben is adding Maryland state Del. Jheanelle Wilkins as a

principal in the government affairs practice area and also bringing on Erica Loewe, Leticia “Letty” Mederos and Jamal Simmons as senior advisers.

WEEKEND WEDDING — Marc Rod, senior congressional correspondent for Jewish Insider, and Olivia Truesdale-Rod, program manager for FMC (Former Members of Congress), got married Friday at Meridian House. They met in 2018 as editors for the Claremont Colleges’ student newspaper, and began dating shortly after.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Ronny Jackson (R-Texas), Greg Casar (D-Texas), Becca Balint (D-Vt.) and Zach Nunn (R-Iowa) … George Will … Reuters’ Ted Hesson … National Association of Manufacturers’ Jay Timmons … Mitchell Rivard of Rep. Jason Crow’s (D-Colo.) office … Eliot Nelson … Kelly Love … Shana Mansbach … Allison Bormel … Todd Stern … CNN’s Polson Kanneth … Ellen Qualls … Cyrus Pearson of the Senate Republican Conference … Erin Mershon … former Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.) … Andy Karellas … GM’s Charlotte McCoy … Kathy O’Hearn … Jason Kander … Kristin Engdahl Zipay … Ansley Braden Boylan … POLITICO’s Renee Salinas … Michael DiRoma … Allie Berding … Mike DuHaime … Nandi Perry of Gen-Z for Change … NBC’s Megan Stackhouse … Abigail Henderson … Elena Abbott of Thorn Run Partners

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A message from The Alzheimer's Association:

The ASAP Act is a “mammogram moment” for Alzheimer’s — an opportunity to make early detection the standard of care. When Congress enabled Medicare coverage for routine mammograms, screening rates soared and breast cancer deaths dropped significantly. That early investment led to earlier detection, better outcomes and improved quality of life.

Congress can deliver this same breakthrough for those with Alzheimer’s through the bipartisan ASAP Act, which would allow Medicare to cover a simple blood test to detect Alzheimer’s before symptoms appear. Until Congress acts, Medicare cannot cover dementia screening tests. But fewer than 10% of people receive a diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment when today’s FDA-approved treatments are significantly more effective. Expanding access to blood-based screening will help more patients receive an early diagnosis, and the opportunity for earlier, more effective treatment. Congress must support the ASAP Act and appropriate Alzheimer’s care.