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 | | Daily reported coronavirus cases in the United States, seven-day average.The New York Times |
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Many are buoyed by the idea that so many people will have been vaccinated or infected with the variant that soon the coronavirus will be unable to find a foothold, and will fade as a major force in our lives. |
My colleague Apoorva Mandavilli, who covers science and global health, laid out the optimistic case for life after Omicron. |
"The best-case scenario is that the Omicron variant is the last bad variant of the virus and that the worst is behind us," Apoorva said. "It's possible that as early as March or April, we'll start to get back to some version of our prepandemic lives." |
Perhaps by the spring in the Northeast, and probably later in other regions, many Americans will go to work mask-free, send their children to school and socialize with family and friends without worry. |
"That phase where we resume normal activities could last all spring, all summer, maybe until the fall or the winter — or possibly forever," Apoorva said. |
In this scenario, many of us might experience a mild infection every few years, as with coronaviruses that cause the common cold, but would not become seriously ill. Only those at high risk from Covid would need regular boosters tailored to the latest variant. |
The idea of Omicron as the last stand of the coronavirus holds enormous appeal. But Apoorva spoke with more than a dozen epidemiologists, immunologists and evolutionary biologists, and they said the course of the virus in the U.S. appeared more complicated — and a bit less rosy. |
Scientists have agreed for a while that it's unlikely that we'll reach herd immunity and that the virus will completely disappear. Instead, the virus seems likely to become endemic, a permanent part of our lives that, like the flu, we have to manage. |
"But just because a virus is endemic doesn't mean it's low-risk," Apoorva said. "Tuberculosis is a perfect example. It's endemic in many parts of the world, and last year, 1.5 million people died of TB." |
The future also depends on a wild card: new virus variants. |
Contrary to popular myth, the coronavirus is not guaranteed to transform into a milder form. Even if the next variant is as mild as Omicron or even milder, a highly contagious variant, or one that sidesteps our immunity, may still overwhelm hospitals and wreak havoc. |
As for what lies ahead, given how frequently the coronavirus has upended expectations, Americans should hope for the best — but be prepared to live a bit longer with something short of that. |
"We are closer to the end, but let's not let our guard down too soon and assume that we are fully done," Apoorva said. |
You may have seen news reports of a new subvariant of Omicron known as BA.2 (the original is known as BA.1). The Omicron offshoot has been detected in at least 40 countries, including the U.S., Britain, Denmark, India, Sweden and Norway. |
The coronavirus is mutating all the time, and new variants like this are normal. The vast majority of variants aren't cause for worry. The World Health Organization has not designated BA.2 a "variant of concern" — a designation that means the variant has characteristics that could make it more dangerous, like producing more severe disease or an ability to evade vaccines. |
The Statens Serum Institut, Denmark's infectious disease authority, said that preliminary calculations suggest BA.2 could be 1.5 times more infectious than BA.1. But the institute also said that an initial analysis revealed the new variant did not cause more hospitalizations. The news means that the country's current wave could extend a bit further into next month than previously forecast, the institute's technical director said. |
My colleague Carl Zimmer told me that "it's intriguing scientifically, but for now, experts don't see it having much of an impact on the course of the pandemic." |
What else we're following |
I work in a national coffee chain, and most of our customers do not wear masks. Many of them come to our drive-through, coughing and sneezing, sometimes into their hands, and then come to the window and hand us their germ-infested card or cash. The majority of our employees have gotten Covid or have been exposed. We are short-staffed and always stressed out. I am constantly washing my hands and wiping down surfaces with disinfectant wipes. When I get home, I immediately wash my hands, wipe off all of my belongings, and then shower. I am exhausted and just waiting to eventually get infected. — Sandy Lowe, Calif. |
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