An informed guide to the pandemic, with the latest developments and expert advice about prevention and treatment. |
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 | | Daily reported coronavirus cases in the United States, seven-day average.The New York Times |
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 | | The morning commute on London Bridge in England, where the Omicron subvariant BA.2. is driving an increase in Covid cases.Andy Rain/EPA, via Shutterstock |
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Bracing for the BA.2 wave |
Though Covid case numbers are falling in most of the country, scientists warn that the quiet may soon give way to another surge, driven by an Omicron subvariant, BA.2. It is already fueling an increase in cases in 18 countries, including Britain, France, Germany and Italy. |
There are still many question marks about a potential BA.2 wave. To understand what might lie ahead, I spoke with my colleague Benjamin Mueller, a health and science reporter. |
What do we know about BA.2? |
We know that BA.2 is more contagious than the version of Omicron that spread through the U.S. this winter. We know that some places like New York City are seeing early signs of cases ticking up, though at very low levels overall. And BA.2 is quickly becoming more prevalent in some places. But whether that turns into a wave — as some countries in Europe are seeing — is hard to know for sure. |
What are the different scenarios? |
There are a few possibilities. Some experts predict that a BA.2 wave could come as soon as April, or perhaps later in the spring or in the early summer. |
Another possibility is that BA.2 slows down a decline in cases or produces only a slight uptick — but not a big wave. That could be because so many Americans got infected with the first version of Omicron over the winter, so there's more immunity in the population. Spring is also here, when people do more socializing outside, which could slow down transmission somewhat. |
There's also some optimism that even if there is a more sizable bump in cases, because of all the immunity in the population, hospitalization rates may not go up so much. That's been true for some European countries where cases have been rising for a few weeks, but we've not yet seen a surge of hospitalizations. |
What's the worst case scenario? |
A worse-case scenario is that the U.S. follows the path of the U.K., where not only have cases surged, but so have hospitalizations. |
The U.S. has vaccinated and boosted people at lower rates than Western Europe. Even now, Americans are dying from Covid at far higher rates than people in Western Europe. And experts worry that those low booster and vaccination rates, especially in older people, could put the U.S. in a vulnerable position once BA.2 takes hold. |
Plus, there's the fear that even though some parts of the U.S. have effectively been without restrictions for months, reduced masking in other places could help speed a rise in cases. |
What do studies say about how much an Omicron infection protects against a BA.2 infection? |
There have been some lab studies that suggested that vaccinated people infected with Omicron produce reasonably high levels of antibodies that probably protect against BA.2. And we know from estimates out of the U.K. that vaccines seem to protect about as well against BA.1 as they do against BA.2. The big variable is how long that protection, especially from a previous infection, is going to last. |
How should I approach the next few months? |
When I asked scientists that question, they said they were encouraging people to do something like what they thought the government should be doing, which is using this moment to get prepared. |
That means having good masks, and people availing themselves of the free tests on offer. Scientists also think it's very important that people get booster shots if they're eligible. And they hope that the government prepares, too, by securing the money it needs for additional treatments and vaccines and making booster shots more accessible, especially to vulnerable people. |
 | | A child in Bordeaux, France, receiving a Covid-19 vaccination in February.Caroline Blumberg/EPA, via Shutterstock |
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Moderna's shot for children |
Moderna said today that it would seek emergency authorization in the U.S. for its coronavirus vaccine for children younger than 6. Interim results from its clinical trial showed that volunteers in that age group had a similar immune response to what was reported in young adults, when given a dose one-fourth as strong. |
But Moderna said the vaccine was only about 44 percent effective in preventing symptomatic illness among children 6 months to 2 years old and 37 percent effective in children 2 to 5 years old. |
The company's announcement comes shortly before Pfizer and BioNTech are expected to release results from a three-shot study for children under 5, using doses one-tenth as strong as those for people 12 and older. Those results are expected in April. |
Last month, Pfizer delayed seeking emergency authorization of its vaccine for young children after data showed two doses were less than 50 percent effective against symptomatic disease, according to people familiar with the situation. |
So far, no standard has been set. But it's unclear whether the F.D.A., the C.D.C. and parents across the country will be willing to accept Moderna's average efficacy rate of about 40 percent for children under 6. |
While Americans have been hearing for months that the vaccines are less potent against Omicron in all age groups, 40 percent is below what many vaccine experts consider the minimum standard for effectiveness against Covid. The standard initially set for adult coronavirus vaccines was that they be at least 50 percent effective against symptomatic infection. |
But there is clearly a demand to protect young children, especially as more of the country unmasks, more parents return to workplaces and patterns of normal life resume. Children under 5, a group of about 18 million, are the only people in the U.S. still not eligible for shots. |
 | | Francesco Drommi, who lost his sense of smell as a symptom of long Covid, smells a lemon during a sensory workshop in Piacenza, Italy.Fabio Bucciarelli for The New York Times |
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Have you suffered from long Covid? |
Millions of people continue to suffer from long Covid — the constellation of symptoms that can linger months after an infection. The chronic illness can include feelings of exhaustion, cognitive problems, shortness of breath, headaches, joint pain and more. Studies estimate that perhaps 10 to 30 percent of people infected with the coronavirus may develop long-term symptoms. |
This week, we're asking you for resources that may help. |
If you've had long Covid and managed to treat or deal with some of your symptoms — even a little — we'd like to hear about it. We're not looking for medical advice, but the approaches or things you have tried that made your situation better. Perhaps it's a certain type of physical therapy that you hadn't tried before, a support group you found or your go-to brand of candles for scent training. |
What else we're following |
I just keep going back to what I learned about the 1918 pandemic and how there were surges that lasted into the mid 1920s. Armed with that information, and having a very rudimentary knowledge about infectious diseases, I am surprised at the leniency around Covid restrictions the minute it seems like things are getting better. You just have to be wary and stop trying to rush something that cannot be rushed. Mother Nature has her own time schedule. Learning that makes life much easier. — Agnes Simpson, Los Gatos, Calif. |
Let us know how you're dealing with the pandemic. Send us a response here, and we may feature it in an upcoming newsletter. |
| Merrill Oliver compiled photos for this briefing |
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