Why Trump's abortion statement changes nothing

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Apr 09, 2024 View in browser   By Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza Presented by  With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine Listen to today's Audio Briefing DRIVING THE DAY WHAT JARED BERNSTEIN IS READING — “Despite all the good news in the stock market over the last year or so, once you factor in inflation it really hasn’t gone anywhere since late 2021,” writes NYT’s Jeff Sommer. “Money illusion — the common human failure to pierce the veil imposed by inflation — has obscured that reality.” FUN ONE — Arizona’s marquee Senate race, and the issue hovering over the entire race, goes under the microscope in Olivia Nuzzi’s latest for N.Y. Mag: Rep. RUBEN GALLEGO (D-Ariz.) and KARI LAKE “are acting in a novela much bigger than their own campaigns. Against the backdrop of the border, the issue voters here say they care about more than anything else, they have been cast as proxies for two oppositional realities competing for supremacy.” We also couldn’t help but laugh at this line on Lake: “Talking to Lake feels like performing open-heart surgery on a balloon animal. It’s an impossible and unnatural enterprise.” Donald Trump's position on abortion is unlikely to change the contours of the 2024 race, despite his tepid stance. | Scott Olson/Getty Images TRUMP’S ABORTION REALITY — For decades, DONALD TRUMP’s stance on abortion has been a moving target. In 1999, on NBC’s Meet the Press: “I am very pro-choice. I hate the concept of abortion,” he said. “I just believe in choice.”  In 2011, while considering a White House run, he told CPAC that he was pro-life. In 2016, while running for president, he told MSNBC’s Chris Matthews that there should be “some form of punishment” for the women who get abortions.  In 2018, he vowed to overturn Roe v. Wade and advocated for a 20-week national abortion ban.  Since Roe was overturned in 2022 — a decision made possible only after Trump appointed three justices to the Supreme Court — he has oscillated between taking credit for the new state of abortion rights, public concern that the party’s stance was a political loser, and private support for a nationwide 16-week ban. Mostly, he has worked hard to not give a direct answer on where he stood. Yesterday, in a four-minute video, Trump took a stance … sort of. He said he wasn’t in favor of a national abortion ban; endorsed a state-by-state approach to abortion law; called for exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother; and praised himself for appointing the conservative SCOTUS majority that overturned Roe. On the right, disappointment and anger reigned. Former VP MIKE PENCE said Trump’s statement was a “retreat on the right to life” and a “slap in the face.” Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) reiterated his preference for a 15-week ban. “We should draw a line. I believe what I believe,” Graham told our colleagues on the Hill, even as Trump lobbed attacks in his direction. MAJORIE DANNENFELSER, president of Susan B. Anthony Pro Life America, told the NYT that Trump’s statement was “a huge disappointment” and “a total eclipse of reason.” “The pro-life movement is the dog that caught the car, is chewing on the bumper and can’t figure out why they’re still hungry,” SARAH ISGUR, a former DOJ official during the Trump years, told us. “Trump’s latest statement is peak Trump in that it actually said nothing, left more questions as to his position than it answered, angered everyone — and yet almost certainly will make no difference at all.” The bottom line, she said: “Trump's pro-life supporters aren’t going to vote for Biden, and Biden’s pro-choice supporters aren’t suddenly going to consider Trump,” Isgur said. That rings true to us. Our colleagues Natalie Allison and Megan Messerly noted that on Monday morning, “Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, Students for Life, the Faith and Freedom Coalition, the Family Research Council, National Right to Life and CatholicVote, reiterated their commitment … to electing Trump.” Last night, we spoke to PENNY NANCE, the CEO and president of Concerned Women for America, who told us that she doesn’t agree with Dannenfelser’s “hot take.” “We want to protect as many babies as possible, and supporting President Trump does that,” Nance said. “I live in the real world. I don't have this magic wand that will give me 60 votes in the Senate. And as much as I would hope that that would happen in the next election, that's a pretty high hill to climb.” “At the end of the day, if you're pro-life, you cannot vote for Joe Biden,” she added. “To the extent that moderate voters were concerned on this issue, I think it takes it off the table.” Candidly, we don’t agree that it neutralizes the issue with moderates — not by a long shot. There are a few big reasons why: 1. A whole lot of moderates and independents really care about this particular issue. Trump himself “recognizes the political liability of the abortion issue,” ALICE STEWART, a veteran GOP operative, told Playbook — which is why he made the statement in the first place. “You can be pro-life, you can be anti-abortion, but you also have to recognize the political reality of this issue when you're talking about appealing to independent voters and an electorate that is more broad than the Republican primary base.” As our colleagues Meridith McGraw, Alex Isenstadt and Adam Wren write, “For years, at a gut level, the former president has feared the backlash he might face for taking a hard-line position on abortion. And despite his attempt to fog up the issue with his new, state-based stance, Trump is still likely to pay a price with voters for appointing the Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade.” 2. As the self-professed man who made it possible to overturn Roe, Trump owns the new patchwork status quo on abortion. He wants the credit for the court’s Dobbs majority — which kicked the issue to the states. He’s the leader of the Republican Party as GOP officials in those states enact restrictions and bans. Those laws are a reflection of the approach he’s endorsed; one possible only because of the court majority he installed. After Trump’s video statement was released, aides to President JOE BIDEN were quick to invoke Trump’s 2016 interview (“Trump once said women must be punished for seeking reproductive health care — and he’s gotten his wish”) as a means of undercutting Trump’s attempt to stake out a middle ground. And the Biden camp released a 60-second ad focusing on a woman who was denied an abortion after Roe fell, ending it with one simple message: “Donald Trump did this.” Expect a whole lot more of that. At a time when the mood about the economy is pretty sour, the president’s approval rating is deep underwater and the right track/wrong track numbers suggest a deep discontent, this is maybe the sharpest and most effective line of attack in the Biden quiver. 3. Trump’s own credibility issues make it hard for his attempt at moderation to stick. For years, we’ve watched Trump stick to the script for a moment, get lauded for his moderation and/or restraint … and then very quickly say something that undercuts the whole feint. “Many people realize what Donald Trump says one day may be something different the next day,” said Stewart. “And, you know, I think a lot of people realize, well, he says that today. Will he have the same position if he's elected president?” “The question is not: ‘Is this a sustainable position?’ The question about Donald Trump is: [Is] he going to sustain this position?” said DANIELLE PLETKA, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Was your eclipse viewing experience as transcendent as ours? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.   A message from The National Association of REALTORS®: Our communities are stronger when housing is fair for all. We at the National Association of REALTORS® support broad access to homeownership - from increasing housing supply to making mortgage finance more accessible. Everyone should have a fair shot at homeownership. Our members work across the country to help people from every background find a home that is right for them. Learn More at https://www.nar.realtor/fair-housing   STARTING TODAY — As the White House hosts Japanese PM KISHIDA FUMIO for a state visit this week, U.S. and Japanese officials are expected to announce a new effort towards an “integrated air defense network” and a joint NASA lunar mission, WaPo’s Ellen Nakashima and Jeanne Whalen preview. “Japan, said one senior Biden administration official, is aligning with the United States ‘in many ways like a NATO ally.’ … Kishida and Biden will also discuss expanding co-production of defense equipment.” Big read from Tokyo: “Japan Hunkers Down for Trump 2.0,” by Lionel Barber for POLITICO Magazine: “The possible return of Donald Trump to the White House has bred a deep sense of insecurity among Japan’s business and political elite.” Also on the docket: “Biden and Kishida likely to discuss Texas bullet train project,” by Reuters’ Tim Kelly and Trevor Hunnicutt LONDON HOUSE CALLING — DAVID CAMERON, the U.K.’s top diplomat, visited Trump in Florida yesterday, the day before he was due for a swing through D.C., where he is scheduled to meet with Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and congressional leaders over the next two days, our colleague Kimberly Leonard reports from Tallahassee. “In a statement, a spokesperson for the U.K. government said ‘it is standard practice for ministers to meet with opposition candidates as part of their routine international engagement.’ Cameron met with Sen. MITT ROMNEY in 2012 when Romney was running for president and Cameron was prime minister. The visit by Cameron comes amid a push by the White House to get Congress to sign off on a new aid package for Ukraine in its war against Russia.” WHAT BIDEN WANTS VOTERS TO HEAR — Biden vowed yesterday “to cancel student debt for tens of millions of Americans this fall, bringing an election-year pitch that he’s fighting to help struggling borrowers to a battleground state that’s crucial to his reelection,” write Michael Stratford and Brakkton Booker. “The total number of borrowers expected to receive relief will be more than 30 million Americans, officials said. That rivals Biden’s first program that would have offered more than 40 million borrowers some amount of relief.”   A message from The National Association of REALTORS®: Learn More at https://www.nar.realtor/fair-housing   WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY On the Hill The Senate is in. Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN and Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. C.Q. BROWN will testify before the Armed Services Committee at 9:30 a.m. GRETCHEN CARLSON will testify before the Judiciary Committee on forced arbitration at 10 a.m. USAID Administrator SAMANTHA POWER will testify before an Appropriations subcommittee at 2:30 p.m. The House will meet at noon and at 2 p.m. will take up several bills, with votes postponed until 6:30 p.m. The Rules Committee will meet at 4 p.m. to take up several bills, including a bill extending Section 702 in the FISA reauthorization and a resolution denouncing the Biden administration’s immigration policies. 3 things to watch … Speaker MIKE JOHNSON has waded into the spy-powers debate currently dividing Hill Republicans, siding with defense hawks on a key issue. Our Jordain Carney and Olivia Beavers report that a Johnson staffer told a group of GOP aides yesterday that Johnson opposes imposing a warrant requirement on intelligence authorities — a key reform sought by civil libertarians in the reauthorization Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.” You can expect that position to only compound Johnson’s troubles on the MAGA right. More from Jordain on the state of play The House GOP Steering Committee meets today to begin the process for picking a successor to KAY GRANGER (R-Texas) as the top Republican on the Appropriations committee. The only official candidate is TOM COLE, the Okie who is currently the Approps vice chair. But there’s buzz that ROBERT ADERHOLT (R-Ala.), the most senior Republican on the panel, could make a play for the top spot. Backstory from Caitlin Emma The move to force ByteDance to sell TikTok or face a ban in the U.S. picked up a powerful ally on Monday: Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL announced his support for the legislation, as Axios’ Stef Kight reports. Though the bill passed the House with a bipartisan supermajority, 352-65, Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER hasn’t yet said whether he’ll bring the House bill to a floor vote — though in a “Dear Colleague” letter on Friday, he identified it as an issue that will be addressed in “the coming weeks.” At the White House Biden will deliver remarks on the care economy at Union Station this afternoon. In the evening, Biden and First Lady JILL BIDEN will welcome Kishida and his wife, KISHIDA YUKO to the White House. VP KAMALA HARRIS will receive briefings and conduct internal meetings with staff. In the afternoon, the VP will meet with families of Americans hostages being held by Hamas.   PLAYBOOK READS TRUMP CARDS Trump’s last-minute request to shift his hush money case out of Manhattan was denied. | Julia Nikhinson/AP Photo ANOTHER DELAY ATTEMPT FLOPS — A New York appeals court judge denied Trump’s last-minute request to shift his hush money case out of Manhattan, thwarting the former president's latest attempt to postpone the April 15 trial with just a week to go, AP’s Michael Sisak, Jake Offenhartz and Jennifer Peltz report. In an emergency hearing yesterday, Justice LIZBETH GONZÁLEZ rejected Trump attorneys’ claims that he faces “‘real potential prejudice’ in heavily Democratic Manhattan.”  YOU DON’T KNOW JACK — Special counsel JACK SMITH urged the Supreme Court yesterday to reject Trump’s claims of sweeping “presidential immunity” and deny him the chance to delay a criminal trial related to charges of election subversion in 2020. “The effective functioning of the presidency does not require that a former president be immune from accountability for these alleged violations of federal criminal law,” Smith wrote the court in a new filing. “To the contrary, a bedrock principle of our constitutional order is that no person is above the law — including the president.” “Smith argued Monday that even if the justices agree with a recent challenge — brought by several defendants charged with obstructing Congress’ work on Jan. 6, 2021 — the charges against Trump relying on the same law would still survive,” Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein report. “It’s Smith’s first indication that he isn’t sweating the Supreme Court’s impending decision in the obstruction case, which the justices agreed to take up in December.” WHAT WILLIS IS TALKING ABOUT — Fulton County DA FANI WILLIS filed a motion yesterday to block Trump’s appeal of last month’s ruling that allowed her to continue to helm the election interference case against him. More from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Bill Rankin and David Wickert AMERICA AND THE WORLD CIA Director William Burns was in Egypt to help negotiate a ceasefire in the Middle East. | Brynn Anderson/AP Photo MIDDLE EAST LATEST — Though Israel and Hamas sent teams to Egypt over the weekend to revisit ceasefire negotiations, a senior Hamas official tells Reuters’ Nidal Al-Mughrabi and Ahmed Mohamed Hassan “there is nothing new” emerging from the talks after the group rejected a new proposal from Israeli negotiators. This latest deadlock comes after the U.S. sent CIA Director WILLIAM BURNS to help navigate a deal. Meanwhile, Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU reiterated Israel's determination to enter the city of Rafah yesterday, though he did not provide specific timing for an invasion: "This victory requires entry into Rafah and the elimination of the terrorist battalions there,” Netanyahu said. “It will happen — there is a date." More top reads:  Elsewhere in the region …  “Iran’s foreign minister accuses US of giving Israel ‘green light’ to attack consulate in Syria,” by AP’s Kareem Chehayeb and Albert Aji   A message from The National Association of REALTORS®: Learn More at https://www.nar.realtor/fair-housing   CONGRESS DOJ yesterday refused to hand over audio of an interview with Biden as a part of House Republicans' ongoing impeachment inquiry. | Francis Chung/POLITICO TELL MY WHY — In a letter to House Republicans yesterday, the Justice Department refused lawmakers’ demands to turn over audio of former special counsel ROBERT HUR’s interview with Biden as a part of their ongoing impeachment inquiry, Jordain Carney reports. Though the department handed in the transcript of the special counsel interview with Biden’s ghostwriter, Assistant AG CARLOS URIARTE questioned the investigative purpose of further materials in a letter to committee chairs, and warned “that handing over the interview audio could negatively impact future investigations.” Uriarte writes … “Even assuming the Committees did have a remaining investigative purpose behind their request for the audio files that has not been rebutted by the information produced so far — and they has not identified one — it is critical for the Department to understand why the Committees believe they have a remaining need for the information in these files.” POLICY CORNER IT’S NOT EASY BEING GREEN — Although the Energy Department’s loan office has more than $200 billion to dole out for clean energy projects across the country, it has only approved about $25 billion so far — highlighting the immense difficulty of fulfilling the Biden White House’s lofty climate goals, Kelsey Tamborrino and Brian Dabbs report. “Handing out that cash — without allegations of waste or scandal — is no small task for the DOE, which still faces Republican attacks for its failed Obama-era loan guarantee to the solar manufacturer Solyndra. Though its leaders say the lending decisions will necessarily take time to complete, some Democrats worry about what would happen to the program under Trump.” Related read: “Biden Is Spending $1 Trillion to Fight Climate Change. Voters Don’t Care,” by WSJ’s Amrith Ramkumar and Andrew Restuccia   PLAYBOOKERS Mark Warner and the Senate’s (unofficial) Eclipse Committee enjoyed the celestial show from the Capitol. Robert F. Kennedy’s camp distanced itself from Rita Palma, the camp’s self-described state director, after she said that efforts to put RFK on the ballot will help “get rid of Biden.” Katie Porter’s Senate campaign may be dead, but her fundraising efforts are very much alive. MEDIA MOVES — Tammy Audi will rejoin the WSJ as economics editor. She most recently has been enterprise editor for the NYT national desk. … Ari Isaacman D'Angel is now chief comms officer at Business Insider. She previously was a managing director at FGS Global. More from Axios’ Sara Fischer and Eleanor Hawkins FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Matt Gorman has been promoted to EVP at Targeted Victory. He previously was VP and is a Tim Scott and NRCC alum. TRANSITIONS — Quincy Henderson is now a legislative assistant covering financial services for Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.). He previously was a legislative assistant for the House Homeland Security Committee and is a House Jan. 6 committee alum. … Divyansh Kaushik will be a VP at Beacon Global Strategies and a non-resident senior fellow at the Federation of American Scientists and American Policy Ventures. He previously has been an associate director at FAS. … Stephen Holland is now senior counsel at Crowell & Morin. He previously was senior health counsel for the House Energy and Commerce Committee. … … Phil Valenziano is now VP at ColdSpark. He previously was regional political director at the RNC and is a Kim Reynolds, Chris Christie and Mitt Romney campaign alum. … Bully Pulpit Interactive has added Zoe Sheppard as director, Dina Montemarano as senior director of insights, Lori Friedman director of TV investment, Alexa Wiles as director of creative operations and Laura Krain as director of media planning. WEEKEND WEDDING — Amy Strathdee, founder of the Strathdee Group, and Mike Tanoory, an artist, got married Saturday night in a waterfront ceremony at the Tides Inn in Irvington, Virginia. They met in 2011 in D.C. Pic … Another pic … SPOTTED: Rep. Tony Cárdenas (D-Calif.) and Norma Cárdenas, Judge Todd Hughes, Nicole Dorris, Jess Aune, Lucinda Guinn and Brian O’Donnell, Jordy Zeigler, Sarah Cotton, Dara and Marshall Cohen, Lenny Young and Flavio Sanchez. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough, Alex Witt and Jeff Kepnes … Jeff Zucker … former Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (6-0) … Global Strategy Group’s Jon Silvan … POLITICO’s Ali Manzano … GMMB’s Brad Perseke … Joanne Zurcher … Natalie Adams of Sen. Bob Casey’s (D-Pa.) office … Miranda Green … Caroline Boulton … Roy Ramthun … Stephanie Dreyer ... Andean Group’s Frank Gargon … Jill Gershenson-Cohen … Allen Jamerson … Olivia Reingold … Neal Kemkar … Vocal Media’s Malia Fisher (33) … BCW’s James Jackson … Catie Anderson of the American Cleaning Institute … Ross Wallenstein of Wall to Wall Communications … Cynthia Nixon … Elliot Imse of the LGBTQ+ Victory Institute Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Yesterday’s newsletter misidentified Susannah Burrage.   A message from The National Association of REALTORS®: The National Association of REALTORS® supports the broadest possible access to homeownership. That means taking a 360 degree view. We support the creation of more housing that’s affordable for regular Americans. We support broad access to housing finance, through alternative credit scoring, down payment assistance, and special purpose credit programs. We support strong enforcement of fair housing laws that protect consumers from discrimination. And we work closely with partners like HUD to ensure broad access to homeownership for all—from first-time buyers to veterans to homebuyers of every background. In communities across the country and in Washington, we believe every aspiring homeowner should have the support they need on their homeownership journey. Because the fairer housing is in our country, the stronger our country. Learn More at https://www.nar.realtor/fair-housing     Follow us on Twitter Rachael Bade @rachaelmbade Eugene Daniels @EugeneDaniels2 Ryan Lizza @RyanLizza   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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