| | | |  | | By Adam Wren | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine, Ali Bianco and Rachel Umansky-Castro On today’s Playbook Podcast: POLITICO White House reporter Megan Messerly and Ottawa Bureau Chief and co-host of the Canada Playbook Podcast Nick Taylor-Vaisey talk about the trade tightrope that President Donald Trump and Canadian PM Mark Carney are on … and how the shutdown is trickling across the border.
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| Happy Friday, and happy Halloween! I’m Adam Wren. If you’re making the rounds to the homes of any notable D.C. names tonight, send us your pool reports: Who was stingy? Who was generous? Who had the best costume? Who had the best decor? Who wasn’t answering the door at all? You can email us at playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. And don’t worry, we’ll keep you anonymous. MUST LISTEN: Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) joined “The Conversation” with Playbook’s Dasha Burns this week to dig into how she’s weighing entry the Texas Senate race, her “bestie” Marjorie Taylor Greene, why she feels like she’s “on an island” within the Democratic Party sometimes, why Trump’s attacks “only elevate” her and much more. Watch the full episode … Listen and subscribe here PLAYBOOK PLEA: We know you’re used to us telling you what’s important — now it’s your turn. We want to hear from our Playbook readers about the issues that matter to them. Please take a few minutes and fill out this survey. It’s a chance to shape the first thing you read every day. In today’s Playbook … — Meet the 2028er who’s popping up across the 2025 races. — Tomorrow brings a day of reckoning as the shutdown reaches day 31. — The shutdown data blackout claims the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | POP QUIZ: Who is the only major potential 2028 Democratic candidate to campaign in off-year races in New York, New Jersey and California’s ballot measure Proposition 50? Keep reading for the answer …
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Mikie Sherrill and Pete Buttigieg campaign at a train station in Westfield, New Jersey, on Thursday, Oct. 30, 2025. | Seth Wenig/AP Photo | WEARING THE JERSEY: Mikie Sherrill is in the bring-along-your-best-surrogate, get-out-the-vote, stick-the-landing part of her New Jersey gubernatorial campaign. Amid it all, Sherrill is pushing back against the idea that her campaign is fully a referendum on President Donald Trump. In Westfield and then Red Bank yesterday, two of her six stops for the day ahead of a Saturday rally with former President Barack Obama, Sherrill campaigned at a train station and launched a get-out-the-vote drive, drawing hundreds as your Playbook author alternately sprinted and sped between stops to keep up beneath a steady and windy cold rain. At both stops, Sherrill and surrogate-of-the-day Pete Buttigieg hit Trump hard. Buttigieg said Trump would “terminate” the $16 billion Gateway Tunnel out of “spite,” as the former Transportation secretary put it, and “runs a worldwide extortion racket” in his signature tariffs, as Sherrill had it. “The reality is Donald Trump is the president, and he is in year one of a four-year term,” Buttigieg said. “We might not like it. Most New Jerseyans don't like it. But it's true, there’s only so much you can do about that. But right here in New Jersey, you don't have to wait three more years to do something big, because you can go to the polls today or in a few days on Tuesday and send a message the whole country is going to hear.” So predictable has Sherrill’s criticism of Trump been that her GOP rival Jack Ciattarelli, a three-time candidate now, has said at his rallies that “if you get a flat tire on the way home tonight, she’s going to blame it on President Trump.” But when Playbook asked Sherrill whether this race is a referendum on Trump and a battle for the future of where her Democratic Party heads — as innumerable think pieces and autopsies will try to discern next Wednesday — Sherrill pivoted. “I don’t really think it’s either,” Sherrill told Playbook. “I think it’s about the future of New Jersey, and how people here are going to continue to afford a middle class lifestyle. Just kind of … it’s not like really a lot to ask in the richest country in the world, in one of the richest states, to just basically have access to a good job, to be able to afford your rent or your mortgage, your groceries — that your kids actually should have access to a great education and then be able to get a good job. That's what I'm fighting for.” And then, as she uncorked a longer, wandering answer in what has become her trademark style, she all but made it a referendum on Trump. “And the reason that, you know, I talk about the Trump administration is because we are seeing an attack on that basic contract, right? That basic middle-class contract that you should be able to do well and your kids should be able to do better,” Sherrill said. “He is attacking our economy. We are seeing it in the jobs numbers. We are seeing it in schools and the innovation economy we run, and Jack Ciattarelli is going right along with him and supporting that.” Sherrill’s allies say she can and has done both in terms of making the race a referendum on Trump and, also, the cost of living. When she talks about Trump, they say, it’s in terms of the ways he has driven up costs. They insist that in the majority of the ads she has run, she has focused on costs — and Trump only as an obstacle to lowering those costs. Taking stock: Polls show a tight contest, with Sherrill leading by single-digits, POLITICO’s New Jersey campaign ace reporter Madison Fernandez writes in. Sherrill has regularly polled around former VP Kamala Harris’ same margin here from last November, clocking a roughly 6-point lead, even as she has spent millions to win back Hispanic townships that trended toward Trump. On Thursday alone, polls from Emerson College and Suffolk University showed Sherrill with a 1-point and 4-point lead, respectively. Another poll from Quinnipiac University showed her up 8, and one from Fox News had her with a 7-point advantage. But either way, she is setting the predicate for results that will be interpreted, as is everything in 2025, through the prism of what her victory or loss tells us about Trump. Now, for your answer to the pop quiz. It’s not just the topline candidate results that are interesting in an off-year election like the ones we’re seeing in 2025. It’s the shadow 2028 primary we see playing out in how 2025 candidates dispatch their surrogates. Buttigieg, for example, campaigned in person for Abigail Spanberger in Virginia last week as well as for Sherrill this week. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, too, joined Spanberger in Virginia this past week and has been a frequent topic of conversation for both Sherrill and Ciattarelli in New Jersey. And plenty of other potential presidential candidates like Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Rahm Emanuel and a handful of others have also made appearances across both states. When top candidates welcome a prominent political figure in their own backyards, it’s usually a strong sign the visitor hasn’t yet been deemed toxic. The same can’t be said for a figure like progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). She did not campaign on the ground for Spanberger, but did a digital joint fundraising pitch. For just that, Spanberger is getting attacked by Republicans. There is one potential 2028 candidate, as far as Playbook can tell, who has managed to thread the needle and campaign on the ground in Virginia, New Jersey, New York City and California for Prop 50. Any guesses? Answer: It’s Rep. Ro Khanna, the Silicon Valley Democrat who is set to complete the quartet when he rallies with Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral campaign tomorrow in NYC. (Khanna has also done a number of Proposition 50 events in California). Though some may dispute how serious of a potential 2028 candidate Khanna is, the collection of appearances is quite a feat. So how — and why — did he pull it off? “It’s all upside for Ro to go and build relationships and show he’s a team player,” veteran Democratic strategist Caitlin Legacki said. “He’s from a pretty safe seat, so he has the luxury of going and engaging in national politics in ways that people from purple districts have less flexibility. I think Ro has a different/lower/less-partisan profile than other surrogates, so there’s no real downside to having him come, but there’s also less of an upside.” Asked about his big-tent omnipresence, Khanna sounded like a man with an eye toward the not-so-distant future. “I am an economic progressive with an anti-corruption and anti-war conviction who wants to build a big tent for the party,” Khanna told us. “That tent must include rural, suburban America, factory towns, as well as the coasts and urban centers.”
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Learn how Optum is redefining pharmacy care at optum.com/redefineRX. | | | | SHUTDOWN DAY 31 THE DAY OF RECKONING APPROACHES: Tomorrow marks an inflection point in the monthlong government shutdown. Nov. 1 is the start of Obamacare open enrollment, when many Americans will face skyrocketing costs that are at the heart of Democrats’ demands. But it’s also the moment when pain from the shutdown — for SNAP, Head Start and more — starts to make a more tangible imprint on people’s lives. First in Playbook — The ACA rush: Democrats are launching a blitz of doomsday messaging hammering Republicans over the Affordable Care Act premium spikes, including ad campaigns, town halls and hundreds of canvassing events, POLITICO’s Liz Crampton reports. As enhanced subsidies expire, the change in premiums will vary significantly across states, ages and income levels, as POLITICO’s Robert King breaks down. Where talks stand: The weekend will likely come and go without a resolution, as the Senate has adjourned until next week. Speaker Mike Johnson will hold his usual 10 a.m. presser, today with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins. And it’s unclear how real incipient bipartisan negotiations are. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer met yesterday with Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.), per POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill and Jordain Carney. Some Senate Dems were optimistic about momentum toward a deal, while others sounded ready to hold the line, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports. The White House is still refusing to grant Democrats an audience with Trump, POLITICO’s Myah Ward scooped. Far from it: Trump declared on Truth Social last night that Republicans should go for the “nuclear option” — no, not nuclear testing: ending the filibuster. More from POLITICO’s Inside Congress Not involved: Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), often a player in bipartisan “gangs.” This time, he’s stayed away and refused to fold, saying Trump has to get involved, Jordain and Nick Wu write. Brace for impact: Refugees will be among the earliest and hardest hit in losing food aid after Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act, KFF Health News’ Renuka Rayasam reports. As federal funding dries up, many states are trying to backfill the missing money — but vulnerable people who depend on the assistance are already worried about what will happen to them, NYT’s Emily Cochrane captures in northeastern Louisiana. Eyes on the skies: With air traffic controllers going unpaid, VP JD Vance and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy issued a dire warning that air travel delays could turn into a “disaster” for Thanksgiving, per CNN. How it’s playing: The latest ABC/WaPo poll shows Democrats are still getting the better of the shutdown politically. Americans blame Trump and congressional Republicans over congressional Dems, 45 percent to 33 percent, though that margin has shrunk a bit since the start of the month. Democrats especially like that independents pin the blame on the GOP by a 2-to-1 margin. Unprecedented: Johnson’s decision to keep the House out of session this long amounts to “the only time in the last five decades that the House has left Washington for 40+ days outside of summer or campaign season,” Wake Up To Politics’ Gabe Fleisher finds.
| | | | A message from Optum: Optum is redefining pharmacy care, providing real-time pricing, personalized support, and over $1 billion in savings last year alone. Learn more at optum.com/redefineRX. | | | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD HE SAID, XI SAID: In the wake of Trump’s latest agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the U.S. will nonetheless continue its new probe into Chinese trade compliance, USTR Jamieson Greer said on Fox Business. That could lay the groundwork for potential future tariffs. Meanwhile, many of the details of the Trump-Xi deal have yet to be revealed fully, POLITICO’s Megan Messerly and Phelim Kine caution. The yearlong agreement gives both countries breathing room, with relief for U.S. farmers if not for tariff-pummeled businesses. WHAT CARACAS IS WATCHING: Though Trump still hasn’t decided on whether to launch strikes inside Venezuela, the U.S. has taken another step further in IDing potential targets — including military facilities allegedly involved in the drug trade, WSJ’s Shelby Holliday and colleagues report. Meanwhile, Senate Democrats seethed over being left out of an administration briefing to Republicans on its deadly strikes on alleged drug-trafficking boats, and even some Republicans said Dems should be included, per NBC. House Democrats who did get a briefing told reporters that Pentagon officials “do not know precisely who they have killed” as the extrajudicial death toll reaches 57, per POLITICO’s Leo Shane III. APOCALYPSE NOW: The U.N. slammed Trump’s plans to resume U.S. nuclear testing after more than three decades, saying such tests have a “disastrous legacy” and “can never be permitted under any circumstances,” per Bloomberg. Trump’s shock announcement came as a surprise to some of his aides, and Pentagon plans to launch a test quickly didn’t seem to be immediately underway, CNN’s Kevin Liptak and Kylie Atwood report. It’s still not clear how serious he is, amid widespread criticism and safety concerns — but the testing could happen, POLITICO’s Jack Detsch and Joe Gould write. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: In an effort to shore up the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, the U.S. proposed to the Palestinian militants this week guaranteed safe passage away from parts of Gaza currently controlled by Israel, Axios’ Barak Ravid scooped. Meanwhile, WaPo’s John Hudson scooped that the State Department IG has determined Israel violated U.S. human rights laws potentially hundreds of times. The classified report says it would take a long time to review all the incidents, so it’s not clear how much accountability under the Leahy Laws is likely.
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➡️ Subscribe to West Wing Playbook | | | | | TRAIL MIX RED-LIGHT REDISTRICT: The Ohio Redistricting Commission meets at 10 a.m. and is expected to approve a compromise Republican gerrymander, which will shore up one Democratic congressional seat while making two others more competitive for the GOP. More from The Columbus Dispatch FOUR DAYS TO GO — The newest polls: In the New Jersey gubernatorial race, it’s Sherrill +7, per Fox News … Sherrill +8, per Quinnipiac … Sherrill +4, per Suffolk. In NYC, Fox News finds Mamdani +16. … In California, Democrats’ gerrymandering ballot measure is leading by 22 points, per UC Berkeley/the LA Times. Latest in the states: In a bid to bolster the Virginia Republican ticket, Trump held a tele-rally with Gov. Glenn Youngkin last night, as Axios’ Hans Nichols scooped. And Ciattarelli had a town hall on Fox News, where he said the early voting numbers — including by mail — give him optimism about Republicans taking power in the state. Empire State of mind: In NYC, both Mamdani and Andrew Cuomo are running hard, with Mamdani urging supporters not to take a victory for granted as Cuomo hopes to benefit from high turnout among older voters, POLITICO’s Jeff Coltin reports. If Mamdani does win, he’ll face a tricky balancing act with his Democratic Socialists of America: The group intends to “play the long game” and work with him in office after what would be a high-water mark electorally, but the left can also eat its own, POLITICO’s Joe Anuta reports. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — 2026 watch: In the open South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary, a crowded field is all jockeying for Trump’s backing — and seeking to define themselves for voters while they wait, POLITICO’s Alec Hernandez reports. Reps. Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman, Lt. Gov. Pam Evette and AG Alan Wilson are working to pass the Trump litmus test, while no one contender has really broken away yet in fundraising or polling.
| | | BEST OF THE REST IN THE DARK: Today would have been the release of the latest personal consumption expenditures price index — the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation — but because of the shutdown it’s not coming. DEMOCRACY WATCH: A new filing from James Comey asked a court to toss out Trump’s criminal prosecution of him, saying the questions he’s accused of lying in response to were “confusing” and that his answers were “literally true,” per CBS. … FBI Director Kash Patel is purging career agent Aaron Tapp after he was named in documents showing he worked on “Arctic Frost,” the investigation into attempts to subvert the 2020 election, MSNBC’s Ken Dilanian and Carol Leonnig report. … New York AG Letitia James said in court that U.S. attorney John Sarcone III’s subpoenas probing her fraud cause against Trump should be blocked because he’s not legitimately in the role, per NYT’s William Rashbaum and colleagues. IMMIGRATION FILES: Newly revealed documents show that ICE initially sought wide-ranging files from the IRS on people it suspected of being unauthorized immigrants, per POLITICO’s Danny Nguyen. The massive crackdown continues apace: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is sending dozens of military lawyers to DOJ to work in Memphis and at the southern border, AP’s Konstantin Toropin reports. The high-profile anomalies: Kilmar Abrego Garcia’s attorneys asked a court to throw out the human smuggling case against him, per the Washington Examiner’s Kaelan Deese. And NYT’s Luis Ferré-Sadurní and Hamed Aleaziz detail the remarkable story of Alejandro Juarez, another mistakenly deported man — who was a longtime Trump golf club employee. Must read: “What I Saw Watching the Decline of Asylum in America,” by Axel Springer’s Tim Röhn: “[W]hatever direct connection between a migrant’s behavior and a decision to arrest them might once have existed, that connection is now broken. In effect, it seems to me, the United States government has decided mercy is no longer part of the plan, that there is no longer any distinction between ‘applying for asylum’ and ‘entering illegally.’ … Millions of people who thought they were following the law are learning the hard way that they are ‘illegal’ and fair game for deportation.” KNOWING PAUL NEWBY: “God’s Chief Justice,” by ProPublica’s Doug Bock Clark: “Few beyond North Carolina’s borders grasp the outsize role Newby, 70, has played in transforming the state’s top court from a relatively harmonious judicial backwater to a front-line partisan battleground since his election in 2004. … According to former justices, judges and Republicans seeking to be judicial candidates, Newby acts more like a political operator than an independent jurist. He’s packed higher and lower courts with former clerks and mentees whom he’s cultivated at his Bible study, prayer breakfasts and similar events.” Newby declined interview requests, but the North Carolina GOP warned that the Trump administration “would be interested in this matter” if ProPublica didn’t ax the article. THE WEEKEND AHEAD TV TONIGHT … C-SPAN “Ceasefire”: Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.) and Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah) … Anna Greenberg and Brendan Buck. PBS “Washington Week,” guest-moderated by Vivian Salama: Paul Beckett, Jeff Mason, Seung Min Kim and Andrea Mitchell. SIGN OF THE TIMES — Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) will be on Lara Trump’s Fox News show tomorrow night. … And looking ahead, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) will go on ABC’s “The View” on Tuesday. SUNDAY SO FAR … POLITICO “The Conversation”: Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) … Jane Coaston. FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Speaker Mike Johnson … Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.). Panel: Guy Benson, Francesca Chambers and Juan Williams. CNN “State of the Union”: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries … Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.). Panel: Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.), Kristin Davison, Bill de Blasio and Ashley Allison. NBC “Meet the Press”: California Gov. Gavin Newsom … Steve Kornacki. Panel: Adrienne Elrod, Matt Gorman, Jonathan Martin and Melanie Zanona. MSNBC “The Weekend: Primetime”: Sen. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) … Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-Va.) … Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) … Jonathan Karl. CBS “Face the Nation”: Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) … Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey … Juan Andrade. NewsNation “The Hill Sunday”: Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) … Virginia state House Speaker Don Scott … John Reid. Panel: George Will, Robert Draper and Jessica Taylor.
| | | | POLITICO’s Global Security briefing connects the policies, deals, and industrial shifts shaping the global defense landscape. From Washington to Brussels, we follow who’s funding what, what’s being built, and how power moves across continents. Subscribe now for the free preview. | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | Zohran Mamdani did pretty well at identifying NYC-centric songs on the “Track Star” show — except whiffing on Billy Joel’s “New York State of Mind.” Winsome Earle-Sears’ campaign bus caught fire, but everyone was OK. Bill de Blasio met … Bill DeBlasio on CNN last night. TRUMP INC. — “Trump-Branded Golf Resort in Vietnam Hits Snag Over Land Dispute,” by Bloomberg’s Nguyen Xuan Quynh: “Five months after a glitzy groundbreaking ceremony just outside of Hanoi, the area where The Trump Organization-branded $1.5 billion luxury golf resort was unveiled remains just fields of banana and orange trees as angry farmers challenge the site’s clearance plans.” MEDIAWATCH — Amid an ongoing shakeup at CBS News, Gayle King will end her time as a “CBS Mornings” anchor, though she may stay at the network in a different job, Variety’s Matt Donnelly and Brian Steinberg scooped. OUT AND ABOUT — Emerge hosted its 20th-anniversary luncheon at the Hilton Capitol Hill yesterday afternoon, honoring the Emerge Congressional Caucus and celebrating two decades of training more than 1,000 women currently in elected office. A’shanti Gholar moderated a panel discussion about the government shutdown, women’s leadership and more with Reps. Yassamin Ansari (D-Ariz.), Becca Balint (D-Vt.), Janelle Bynum (D-Ore.), Sarah Elfreth (D-Md.), LaMonica McIver (D-N.J.), Melanie Stansbury (D-N.M.) and Emilia Sykes (D-Ohio). SPOTTED: Reps. April McClain Delaney (D-Md.) and Laura Friedman (D-Calif.), Phylicia Porter, Annie Andrews, Charlotte Clymer, Martha McKenna, Ashley Spillane, Keenan Austin Reed, Jalisa Washington-Price, Jenn Stowe, Nicole Venable, Tasha Cole, Amanda Aguirre, Elizabeth Doyel, Mona Mohib, Ana Ma, Elizabeth Booker Houston, Karen Darkes, Kris Cravens-Hutton, Lindsay Meyer-Harley, Suzanne Lambert and Eliza Orlins. TRANSITIONS — Andrew Hartnett is now VP of regulatory affairs and deputy general counsel at the Financial Services Institute. He previously worked at the Iowa Department of Insurance & Financial Services. … DGA Group announced that Edward Reilly will retire as CEO next year, though he’ll remain non-executive chairman, and Prem Kumar is stepping up as the new president. … Nick Sabin is now a senior account supervisor at Edelman Smithfield and will support its digital assets practice. He previously worked for House Majority Whip Tom Emmer. WEEKEND WEDDING — Laura Valentine, associate director of government relations at Ginkgo Bioworks, and Tony Hanagan, senior floor assistant for Senate Republicans, got married Saturday at the National Shrine of Our Lady of Walsingham in Williamsburg, Virginia, with a reception at the Colonial Heritage Club. Pic, via David and Tiffany Photography … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: RNC’s Mike Ambrosini … Jane Pauley … former Reps. David Jolly (R-Fla.) and John Barrow (D-Ga.) … Roger Carstens … POLITICO’s Michael Kruse … Lee Fang … Frank Bruni … former Puerto Rico Gov. Luis Fortuño … NBC’s Elias Miller … Peter Pasi of Zeta Global … Clay Heil of Crowley … Ryan Morgan of Veracity Media … Luke Mullins … Marilyn Rosenthal of AIPAC … Sam Tanenhaus … Joe Kon … Lisa Hagen of CT Mirror and WNPR … Rokk Solutions’ Rachel Winer … retired Lt. Gen. Ricky Waddell … George Bogden … Justin Bis … Mark Jacobson … Kenny Thompson Jr. … Brian Kettenring … Kara Gerhardt Ross … Dan Rather … Betsy Woodruff Swan … Jack Evans … Olivia Dalton of Apple … Piper Perabo Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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