| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Ali Bianco On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Dasha discuss how much attention ordinary Americans are really paying to the federal shutdown, and the next steps for President Donald Trump’s military push into U.S. cities. Plus, is Trump more of a details guy than we think?
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| Good Thursday morning, and a meaningful fast for those of you observing Yom Kippur. This is Jack Blanchard, loving autumn in D.C. and so glad — like Anne of Green Gables — to live in a world where there are Octobers. Per the Capital Weather Gang, today’s weather in D.C.: “Fall perfection.” Get out and enjoy it. STORY OF THE DAY AWARD: Britain had 66 enormous new stars-and-stripes flags specially made for Trump’s state visit last month — after U.S. officials complained the U.K.’s existing collection featured the wrong shade of red, the Daily Telegraph reports. Red red whine: “The Americans decided that the red we use, which is called ‘R01’, wasn’t right for them,” the U.K. government’s official flag supplier, Nick Farley, tells the Telegraph. “They wanted a ‘cherry red’ instead, so we had to buy all new flags for this visit.” Each flag had to be hand-stitched, costing U.K. taxpayers a cool $67,000 in total. But it’s a small price to pay to keep the president happy. In today’s Playbook … — Shutdown, Day 2. But is the economy the bigger story? — Portland next in line for a MAGA military incursion. — … and still the world awaits an answer from Hamas.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
Senate Majority Leader John Thune told POLITICO he's willing to enter health care negotiations if a “critical mass” of Democrats support a House-passed funding bill. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | DAY 2: The federal government shutdown has entered its second morning, and only one thing is certain — we won’t be getting out of it today. The Senate will not be voting on a funding bill (or anything else) on Yom Kippur; with Senate Majority Leader John Thune planning his next attempt at a clean CR tomorrow. In the meantime, hundreds of thousands of federal workers are being moved onto furlough, with many thousands more ordered to carry out their duties without pay. The latest: Neither side has budged an inch. Lowkey bipartisan talks are taking place, but we’re a long way from anything substantial. And the meme wars are only getting worse, with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries now getting in on the act. SPOTTED: Thune, Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso and other GOP pals dining last night at swanky Capitol Hill hotspot Bistro Cacao — where filet mignon and magret de canard go for $45 a head and the cabernet sauvignon list ranges from $60 to $750 a bottle, per Playbook’s Adam Wren. Fine dining on the first night of a government shutdown? Those Democratic attack lines almost write themselves. What Thune is thinking: Thune’s shutdown strategy is to peel off enough Democratic rebels to get his CR past the Senate filibuster. In an interview in the leader’s office yesterday, Thune told POLITICO’s Jordain Carney he’s already held back-channel conversations with some wavering Democrats, but will only discuss the shape of future health care negotiations if a “critical mass” of Democrats — “preferably 10, or more” — are willing to support a House-passed funding bill in return. That number looks some way off, with only two Dems and one independent having backed Thune’s CR so far. But the sight of a nascent bipartisan gang forming on the floor of the Senate yesterday will give some grounds for optimism. Republicans are targeting Dems who backed the last short-term CR back in March but have thus far voted no this time round, like Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and Gary Peters (D-Mich.), per AP. More on the path forward from POLITICO’s Inside Congress IT’S RUSS VOUGHT’S WORLD: In the meantime, there’s one serious shutdown story to watch: White House budget chief Russ Vought’s plan to seize the moment by axing federal jobs and Democratic spending priorities. Vought has told House Republicans he will begin mass firings either today or tomorrow, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill reports. Let’s see how the day pans out. Vought-a-rama: Vought has already started scything away at blue-state infrastructure spending, with the cancellation of almost $8 billion in green energy funding to 14 Democratic-run (and two Republican-run) states, and the freezing of two massive infrastructure projects for New York City worth $18 billion combined. Vought’s moves are “both unprecedented and punitive,” Tony Romm writes in a big NYT front-pager. And egging him on … is the president of the United States. “Republicans must use this opportunity of Democrat forced closure to clear out dead wood, waste, and fraud,” Trump wrote on Truth Social last night. “Billions of Dollars can be saved. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” Every cloud: Democrats last night seized upon Vought’s decision to freeze the $16 billion Gateway tunnel project connecting New Jersey and New York City. The timing is significant, with the gubernatorial election in New Jersey just over one month away and polls too close for Democratic comfort. Dem nominee Rep. Mikie Sherrill quickly vowed last night to “fight tooth and nail” for funding to be restored. Her Republican opponent Jack Ciattarelli said Dems were to blame for refusing to back Thune’s CR. Also worth watching: Whether mass federal job losses start to impact on Virginia’s gubernatorial election, which is also due to take place on Nov. 4. POLITICO’s Liz Crampton and colleagues run through both races in the context of an extended shutdown. All of this is making some Republicans a little nervous, and several have issued warnings that Trump and Vought must not go too far, per Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller and colleagues. “We, as Republicans, have never had so much moral high ground on a government funding bill in our lives,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.). “I just don’t see why we would squander it.” Moderate Dems like Peters have been highly critical of the cuts, raising questions over their likelihood of seeking a deal. Time for a step back: While localized issues may influence state-level elections next month, the bigger question is how far the shutdown will impact nationwide politics ahead of the midterms next year. And the answer from most strategists seems to be … not at all, given how lowkey this shutdown has felt so far, how much time remains before the 2026 elections and the raised bar for what it now takes for a political event to turn the dial. Same old story: Both sides know the economy and cost of living will still be the biggest game in town next year. That’s why Dems are happy to be arguing about Obamacare subsidies, knowing that millions of premiums are set to soar without congressional action. (And the clock is ticking: As of today, we are 30 days out from open enrollment on ACA health insurance.) And that’s why even moderate Dems were lapping up this Bernie Sanders/Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez video message on Obamacare. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: That’s also why megabucks conservative group Americans for Prosperity is spending $1.2 million on two new ads selling the tax cuts — and defending the Medicaid changes — in Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The ads, titled “It Works For Me” and “So You’re Saying,” promote what Republicans now call Trump’s “Working Families Tax Cuts” across competitive districts in North Carolina, Georgia and Idaho. And that’s also why you should be reading this new essential piece by POLITICO economics guru Sam Sutton, looking at how the sputtering jobs market is impacting voter groups Trump won in 2024. “Trump’s surprising performance among Black Americans and younger voters helped him win the popular vote,” Sam writes. But the “unemployment rate for Americans between the ages of 16 and 24 has jumped to 10.5 percent from 9 percent since Trump returned to the White House.” And there’s more: “Black joblessness has also climbed,” Sam writes. “And both groups saw their paychecks decline through the first half of the year, despite an acceleration in weekly earnings for workers overall. Trump notched impressive levels of support within those communities, including Hispanics, that have traditionally voted Democratic — but now his job-approval ratings are tumbling among all three.” Reality check: Dynamics like these could have a much longer tail than any number of shutdown spats.
| | A message from PhRMA: The biopharmaceutical industry is answering President Trump's call to put America first. PhRMA member companies are investing $500B in new U.S.-based manufacturing and infrastructure, providing financial assistance to 10 million patients annually, and announcing AmericasMedicines.com to connect patients with manufacturer direct purchase programs. See all the ways biopharma is putting America first. | | | | THE MAGA MILITARY ON THE HORIZON: Two more American cities — Portland, Oregon, and Memphis, Tennessee — will likely see National Guard troops deployed in the coming days, though exact timings remain unclear. An Oregon Military Department spokesperson had said troops could arrive in Portland as soon as today, but legal and logistical delays may push the deployment into next week, OPB’s Tony Schick and colleagues report. Angry state leaders’ efforts to have the deployment halted will be heard by a federal judge tomorrow. Trump’s dual agenda: The White House has framed the military deployment in Portland as necessary to protect ICE facilities from protesters — but officials privately admit the situation serves the broader agenda of pushing Trump’s crime crackdown, CNN’s Alayna Treene reports. “You can kill two birds with one stone,” a person familiar said. Democrats warn the intervention risks increasing tensions: “The president has sent agents here to create chaos,” Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) said. Walking in Memphis: Meanwhile, AG Pam Bondi, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller all traveled to Memphis yesterday to amp up federal law enforcement, which has already made 53 arrests and seized 20 illegal firearms ahead of the National Guard’s arrival, per AP. “You are unleashed,” Miller told them. “We are going to bulldoze the criminal element of this city.” Welcome here: Unlike his counterparts in Oregon, Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee has expressed support for the federal effort, while noting he does not expect more than 150 National Guard troops (nor any tanks), CNN’s Chris Boyette and colleagues report. About that speech: Back here in D.C., Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.) cornered Speaker Mike Johnson to raise the alarm about Trump’s extraordinary speech to military leaders in Virginia this week, where the president casually suggested his generals use American cities as “training grounds.” In a hot-mic moment, Dean calls Trump “unhinged” and “unwell,” to which Johnson quietly responds: “A lot of folks on your side are, too.” Which is not necessarily a rebuttal. Related read: NYT’s Shawn McCreesh is terrific on Trump’s habit of slipping hugely consequential policy shifts into otherwise rambling, repetitive speeches. ‘Training grounds’ update: The administration’s intense immigration operations here in D.C. have created a blueprint for ICE to take elsewhere, per WaPo’s Emma Uber and Teo Armus. Immigration arrests skyrocketed to 1,200 in the city during August and early September as ICE worked with law enforcement to find undocumented immigrants through low-level traffic violations, NYT’s Hamed Aleaziz and colleagues report. For those keeping track: Gun violence and major crime are at record lows in NYC, with the NYPD reporting an all-time low number of shootings thus far this year, per ABC’s Aaron Katersky.
| | | | A message from PhRMA:  
Biopharmaceutical companies are doing our part to protect American patients and workers with innovative cures, infrastructure investments and providing patient resources. Learn more. | | | | WAR AND PEACE MIDDLE EAST LATEST: The war in Gaza is at a critical moment as the world waits for Hamas’ response to the U.S. peace plan. AFP reports Hamas officials are divided over Trump’s proposal, which has secured Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s sign-on, plus backing from around the world. Some Hamas officials want amendments, including on the fraught question of disarmament, while others want to accept the deal “because the important thing is to have a ceasefire guaranteed by Trump,” one source tells the agency. Clock ticking: Trump has said Hamas had only a few days — roughly to the end of this week — to respond to the deal. AFP reports that as Hamas negotiators met with Arab-state interlocutors Tuesday, they said they’d need “two or three days at most.” So get ready — this story could suddenly move very fast. The looming threat: If the deal is rejected, observers in Gaza are braced for the worst. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz yesterday ordered Palestinians to leave Gaza City immediately or be treated as “terrorists and terror supporters” — despite the fact hundreds of thousands of people remain in the city, trapped and unable to leave, AP’s Wafaa Shurafa and colleagues report. The death toll across Gaza is already well past 60,000.
| | | | Introducing Global Security: POLITICO’s weekly briefing on the policies, regulatory battles and industrial shifts shaping defense and security across continents. We connect what happens in Washington, Brussels and beyond to what gets funded, what gets built and who benefits. Subscribe now to access the free preview edition. | | | | | TRAIL MIX FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — All in the family: Republican Carlos De La Cruz is jumping into the primary for Texas’ 35th District, which Republicans have gerrymandered into a likely flip for the party. The 20-year Air Force veteran, who has a kickboxing gym in San Antonio, is tying himself closely to Trump and citing the killing of Charlie Kirk as motivation to run. The juice: He’s also the brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas), and his campaign says they’d be Congress’ first brother-sister pair. Watch the launch video More from the campaign trail: Businessman Brett Jensen is launching a GOP bid to succeed Rep. Morgan Luttrell (R-Texas), via a $2 million investment. … And speaking of big money, Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) raked in $9.2 million in the third quarter and has raised $31.5 million total for his gubernatorial bid, per POLITICO’s Kimberly Leonard. Keys to the Keystone State: Larry Hailsham Jr. was named the new executive director of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, per WESA’s Chris Potter. And a new Quinnipiac poll shows Gov. Josh Shapiro with big leads for reelection over Republicans Stacy Garrity or Doug Mastriano — and indeed in a hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup against VP JD Vance.
| | | BEST OF THE REST WHAT’S MAKING KYIV HAPPY: Ten days after his dramatic shift on Ukraine, Trump has made his first big policy shift. The president has given the green light to sharing U.S. intelligence with Kyiv to help it hit Russian energy targets with long-range missile attacks, WSJ’s Bojan Pancevski and colleagues scooped. But the administration still hasn’t made a decision on whether to give Ukraine more powerful long-range weapons to strike even deeper inside Russia, as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has requested. SCHOOL DAZE: The White House is asking top universities to sign a 10-point agreement, aligning with the administration’s priorities, to gain priority access to federal money, WSJ’s Natalie Andrews and Douglas Belkin scooped. Key measures include commitments to make campus climates more hospitable to conservatives and to end “the use of race or sex in hiring and admissions.” DEFINITELY NOT THE LINE: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick brought the Jeffrey Epstein files back into the headlines via a lively interview with the N.Y. Post’s Miranda Devine. A former neighbor of Epstein, Lutnick said the pedophile was “the greatest blackmailer ever” — and that he assumed Epstein had gotten a sweetheart plea deal by trading the feds compromising videos of powerful people. It’s a sharp break from the Justice Department’s official conclusion that there was no Epstein client list, nor any blackmail. DRIVE MY CARR: FCC Chair Brendan Carr will testify before the Senate Commerce Committee, possibly in November, after Chair Ted Cruz (R-Texas) criticized Carr in the wake of Jimmy Kimmel’s suspension, Semafor’s Burgess Everett scooped. ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR: A meeting between Trump and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is under discussion, with Brasilia eyeing the ASEAN summit in Malaysia this month as a possible venue, Bloomberg’s Augusta Saraiva and colleagues report. MUCK READ: “Inside the Push to Cash in on the Trump Administration’s Deportation Campaign,” by ProPublica’s Avi Asher-Schapiro and colleagues: “A Pennsylvania businessman who had Tom Homan on his payroll led companies to believe his connections to the future border czar could help advance their bids for government work, industry executives said.” Homan has already denied criminal activity after reports he accepted a bag containing $50,000 in cash as part of an undercover F.B.I. investigation last year.
| | | | Don’t just keep up with policy shifts — set the pace. POLITICO Pro’s Policy Intelligence Assistant combines unmatched reporting with advanced AI to deliver sharper insights, faster answers, and two powerful report builders that turn intelligence into impact. Try it free for 30 days. | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | Corey Lewandowski said Bad Bunny “seems to hate America,” and suggested that ICE agents will be on hand at his Super Bowl halftime show for targeted enforcement. Kamala Harris’ new book is going to No. 1 on the NYT best sellers list right off the bat, per CNN’s Edward-Isaac Dovere. Jane Fonda has restarted her father’s McCarthy-era Committee for the First Amendment. Chelsea Clinton is joining the long line of political podcasts. Conor McGregor said he’ll train for six months for a fight on the White House lawn: “Done deal, signed, delivered.” D.C. LOVE STORY — “It was the worst flight of his life. Then he met his future wife,” by CNN’s Francesca Street: “When Anesu Masube’s mother passed away, he had to book a last minute flight home. On board, he struck up conversation with fellow passenger Hannah Brown.” MUSICAL CHAIRS — Karoline Leavitt has retaken the White House office usually occupied by the press secretary, after Taylor Budowich departed the administration, CBS’ Jennifer Jacobs reports. OUT AND ABOUT — The Article III Project’s Mike Davis and Otto and Mia Heck hosted a gathering at Cafe Fiorello last night, where they celebrated Chad Mizelle as he departs as Justice Department chief of staff. SPOTTED: White House counsel David Warrington, Deputy AG Todd Blanche, Kat Mizelle, FBI Director Kash Patel, Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), Stanley Woodward, Patrick Davis, Elliot Gaiser, Brett Shumate, Matt Galeotti, Jeanine Pirro, Jason Reding Quiñones, Vetan Kapoor, FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson, Gary Barnett, Chris Mufarrige, Lucas and Annie Croslow, Peter Navarro, Dan Bishop, Monica Crowley, Trevor McFadden, Jennifer and Ted Groves, Megan Lacy Owen, Jennifer Heins, Ryan Giles, Michael Flynn, Adam Ciongoli, Jonathan Fahey, Mark and Mollie Hemingway, Vince Coglianese, Caroline Wren, Jonathan Levine, Harry Cole, Ben Smith, Derrick Anderson, Alex Swoyer, Alex Pfeiffer, Will Levi, Bill and Katie Lane, Seung Min Kim, Josh Dawsey, Will Chamberlain, Michael Zona, Jay Boyd and Chris Smith. — The National Association of Manufacturers held its fall board of directors meeting at the Salamander Washington DC yesterday. Speakers included EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler, Deputy Transportation Secretary Steven Bradbury, Sens. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), Rosie Rios, Jay Timmons, Kathy Wengel and Erin Streeter. — Intersect Public Affairs celebrated its first anniversary with a reception at the Occidental last night. SPOTTED: Patricia Zaragoza, Laura McPherson, Antonio Tijerino, Puneet Verma, Monica Garay, Joanna Diaz Soffer, Liam Forsythe, Marvin Figueroa, Dontai Smalls, Cleve Mesidor, Rachel Welch, Nicolaine Lazarre, Natalie Armijo, Cameron Schilling and Marco Davis. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Hadley Heath Manning is joining Independent Women as a senior fellow for family and culture. She’s leaving her role as EVP of the Steamboat Institute, where she’ll remain a senior Tony Blankley fellow and fellowship director. MEDIA MOVES — Aiden Reiter will join POLITICO to cover the intersection of Wall Street and Washington. He previously worked at the FT. … Liam Dillon is joining POLITICO to cover housing issues in California. He previously worked at the L.A. Times. … WaPo has added Dominic Pino, Kate Andrews and Carine Hajjar as opinion journalists. TRANSITIONS — Andrew Rohrbach is now a partner at Jenner & Block in their investigations, compliance and defense practice. He most recently worked for the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York. … Sarah Curtis is now director of U.S. federal public policy at Moderna. She most recently worked for Rep. Kathy Manning (D-N.C.). … Tom Sundlof is now a partner at Blank Rome. He most recently worked in the FDA’s Office of the Chief Counsel. … … Katie Kingsley is now director of government and political affairs at the National Mining Association. She previously worked for Rep. Russ Fulcher (R-Idaho). … Annie Butler is now a director on Targeted Victory’s public affairs team. She previously worked for Rep. Nick Langworthy (R-N.Y.). … Harold Kim has been named principal-in-charge at KPMG’s office of government affairs and public policy. He previously worked at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Michael Whatley HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Hank Johnson (D-Ga.), Eric Burlison (R-Mo.) and Tim Moore (R-N.C.) … Doug Andres of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce … Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold … John Donnelly … NYT’s Lynsea Garrison and Julie Bloom … Lauren Belive … Michael Sinacore of Senate HELP … Barry Bennett … Michelle Sara King of the International Trade Administration … Julie Burton of the Women’s Media Center … former Rep. Mark Schauer (D-Mich.) … Charlotte Robertson … Antares’ Tom Mancinelli … Anthony Zona … 340B Report’s Shannon Young … Dave Walker … New York GOP Chair Ed Cox … Bloomberg’s David Gura … International Foodservice Distributors Association’s Joe Kalmin … Ben Turner of Rep. Dwight Evans’ (D-Pa.) office … Kiersten Pels of the RNC … Brinsley Eriksen of Trident GMG … Ken Bazinet … POLITICO’s Zoë Mitchell … Maddie Green of HB Strategies Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Zack Stanton, deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: A photo caption in yesterday’s Playbook misstated Chuck Schumer’s title. He is Senate minority leader.
| | A message from PhRMA: Biopharmaceutical companies are doing our part to protect American patients and workers by investing in U.S.-based manufacturing and infrastructure, providing patient assistance and launching AmericasMedicines.com to connect patients and businesses to direct purchase programs.
We will also continue to work with the administration and Congress to address the real reasons U.S. medicine prices are higher by requiring PBMs to share savings with patients, fixing the 340B hospital markup program and forcing foreign governments to pay their fair share for medicines. | | | | | | | | Follow us on X | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Canada Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | |
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