| | | |  | | By Ali Bianco and Rachel Umansky-Castro | | Presented by |  | | | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | BULLETIN: “Trump ‘Determined’ the U.S. Is Now in a War With Drug Cartels, Congress Is Told,” by NYT’s Charlie Savage and Eric Schmitt: “President Trump has decided that the United States is engaged in a formal ‘armed conflict’ with drug cartels his team has labeled terrorist organizations and that suspected smugglers for such groups are ‘unlawful combatants,’ the administration said in a confidential notice to Congress this week. … Mr. Trump’s move to formally deem his campaign against drug cartels as an active armed conflict means he is cementing his claim to extraordinary wartime powers.”
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Trump and top Republicans want to press the pain point of Vought’s slash-and-burn approach to government downsizing. | Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images | SHUTDOWN STANDOFF: The shutdown is plowing ahead, with the most concrete consequences yet to the suspension of government operations and the possibility of mass furloughs and layoffs promising to materialize in the coming days. President Donald Trump announced he is meeting with OMB Director Russ Vought today to determine cuts to federal agencies — which could take effect as soon as tonight or tomorrow. But first, the latest on the Hill: Essentially, nothing has changed in the standoff. Speaker Mike Johnson this morning dumped cold water on the idea of off-ramp deals to end the shutdown. “I quite literally have nothing to negotiate,” Johnson said, per POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill. Johnson’s comment comes after Senate Majority Leader John Thune told POLITICO’s Jordain Carney that Democrats folding is the only way he sees the shutdown ending. Thune said it's “unlikely” that there will be Senate votes this weekend — meaning the shutdown is likely to last for at least six days, per Semafor’s Burgess Everett. Trump and top Republicans want to press the pain point of the federal workers and agencies that could be casualties to Vought’s slash-and-burn approach to government downsizing. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters the layoffs will “likely” be “in the thousands.” Thune, meanwhile, isn’t explicitly endorsing Vought’s moves — but he also said Democrats in his interview with Jordain. “We don’t control what he’s going to do,” Thune said. “This is the risk of shutting down the government and handing the keys to Russ Vought.” He added: “Democrats ought to think long and hard about keeping this thing going for a long time, because it won’t be without consequence, I’m sure.” Meanwhile, Johnson told reporters Vought takes “no pleasure in this” and is executing his authority “reluctantly.” But as WSJ’s Scott Patterson and colleagues write this morning, Vought “has been planning for this moment for years.” Consider, too, Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) telling Fox News that Vought “has been dreaming about this moment, preparing for this moment, since puberty.” The view from the White House: Trump is also relishing the moment. “I can’t believe the Radical Left Democrats gave me this unprecedented opportunity,” he wrote on Truth Social announcing his meeting with Vought. He also notably referred to Vought as “of Project 2025 fame” — a rare moment of the president touting the controversial conservative policy platform, after repeatedly attempting to distance himself from it on the campaign trail. But but but: Some administration officials are privately warning agencies to back down from the firings. Senior federal officials are telling agencies not to fire employees en masse, warning that it may violate appropriations law and be vulnerable to challenges from labor unions, WaPo’s Emily Davies and Hannah Natanson scoop. Just in the last day:
- Thousands of USDA’s Farm Service Agency offices are completely shuttered, a brutal move for farmers looking to access loans, as Meredith and Jordain write.
- More than 10,000 already-overworked air traffic controllers, who clock in up to 60 hours a week under the strained aviation system, won’t get a paycheck until the shutdown is over, per POLITICO’s Sam Ogozalek.
- The federal program that provides food to low-income pregnant women, new moms and children under 5 is in jeopardy if the shutdown persists, NBC’s Aria Bendix reports.
Survey says: It remains to be seen if the shutdown will move the needle for many voters. The latest WaPo poll shouldn’t inspire much confidence for the GOP: 47 percent of respondents said they blame Trump and Republicans in Congress, compared to 30 percent who blame Democrats. Still, a “sizable 23 percent say they are not sure” and a majority say they’re only “somewhat concerned” in the shutdown’s early days. Incoming: Vought will be at next Wednesday’s Republican Study Committee lunch on the Hill, per Meredith. Good Thursday afternoon, and a meaningful Yom Kippur to all who celebrate. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Send me your thoughts to abianco@politico.com to ponder as I await the release of Taylor Swift’s new album tonight.
| | A message from PhRMA: The biopharmaceutical industry is answering President Trump's call to put America first. PhRMA member companies are investing $500B in new U.S.-based manufacturing and infrastructure, providing financial assistance to 10 million patients annually, and announcing AmericasMedicines.com to connect patients with manufacturer direct purchase programs. Learn more about our investments and commitment to American patients and workers. | | | | | | 8 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | 1. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Israel intercepted a series of boats in an international flotilla carrying humanitarian aid bound for Gaza, WaPo’s Niha Masih and Miriam Berger report. Israel’s foreign ministry said the group of 440 people, which included famed climate activist Greta Thunberg, were attempting to break Israel’s aid blockade and have all been detained. It comes as the ground offensive in Gaza is poised to expand while negotiators await Hamas’ response to the potential peace deal backed by Trump. On the peace deal: Palestinians — who’ve been praying for an end to the war that will mark two years next Tuesday — are urging Hamas to take the deal, NYT’s Liam Stack reports from Tel Aviv. “We are dying for nothing, and no one cares about us,” one Gaza City resident said. “Hamas needs to think more of us and what we have been through.” Elsewhere in the region: “With Iran under pressure, fears grow of new Israeli strikes,” by WaPo’s Susannah George 2. IMMIGRATION FILES: A federal judge in Maryland denied Kilmar Abrego Garcia’s bid for asylum today, giving him 30 days to appeal, per AP’s Travis Loller. It comes after a U.S. immigration judge yesterday rejected Abrego’s request to reopen his deportation case, saying there was “insufficient evidence” that Abrego faces imminent removal to Uganda “despite the Trump administration’s repeated threats to send him to the African nation,” per WaPo’s Maria Sacchetti. Meanwhile, in Oregon: The “war-ravaged” Portland, as Trump has called it, is awaiting National Guard troops to crack down on protests at ICE facilities. The city’s residents say they could use the government’s help — but with infrastructure and housing, not policing, LA Times’ Jessica Garrison reports. Big read: “Why Some Venezuelans Are Turning Back Home After Years Abroad,” by Bloomberg: “For many, diaspora life has proved disappointing, even hostile in the US, where the Trump administration is revoking legal protections, rounding up immigrants and accelerating deportations. South American destinations like Chile and Ecuador aren’t as welcoming as they once were either. … Frustrated by poor job prospects and wary of simmering xenophobia, some are trying to make a fresh go of life back home, often keeping their suitcases open just in case.” 3. JUDICIARY SQUARE: The speed and consistent stream of emergency appeals reaching the Supreme Court from the White House is straining the judiciary, as Trump has already issued more urgent requests (28) to the high court than the administrations of Joe Biden, Barack Obama and George W. Bush combined, WSJ’s Lydia Wheeler writes. “The pace also puts the White House well on the way to eclipsing the 41 emergency appeals the Trump administration filed in its first term.” And the emergency decisions have often come with little explanation, leaving lower court judges with an unclear path on how to interpret them. 4. TRADING SPACES: Following Trump’s recent dealmaking in the pharmaceutical sector, the president is aiming to strike deals across up to 30 industries to score political wins before the midterms, Reuters’ Dawen Kopecki and colleagues report. The Trump administration is said to offer “tariff relief in exchange for concessions, revenue guarantees, or taking equity stakes in troubled companies, among other types of help.” The tariff impact: The latest round of Trump tariffs, starting Oct. 14, directed at wood, including furniture, “could drive up the cost of building and owning homes, further weighing on an already weak housing sector,” NYT’s Sydney Ember reports. … And Trump officials are thinking about easing 10-percent baseline tariffs on Scotch whisky after British PM Keir Starmer argued for the benefits it would have on the U.S. bourdon industry, Bloomberg’s Lucy White and colleagues report. No final decision has been made. Dance of the superpowers: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this morning he believes there will be a “pretty big breakthrough” in the next phase of negotiations with his Chinese counterpart, as Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping plan a meeting for late October, per Bloomberg’s Daniel Flatey.
| | | | Introducing Global Security: POLITICO’s weekly briefing on the policies, regulatory battles and industrial shifts shaping defense and security across continents. We connect what happens in Washington, Brussels and beyond to what gets funded, what gets built and who benefits. Subscribe now to access the free preview edition. | | | | | 5. ANOTHER EXIT: Todd Arrington, the director of the Dwight D. Eisenhower Presidential Library, left this week after a back and forth with Trump over a gift from the library’s collection to King Charles III, per CBS’ Ed O’Keefe and colleagues.“Sources said Arrington's departure came after he resisted taking an original Eisenhower sword out of the library's collection to give to King Charles last month during President Trump's unprecedented second state visit to the United Kingdom. Four U.S. officials involved in the lavish royal visit were unaware that the library director had left his job, and said the White House played no role in his exit.” 6. CUTTING DEEP: Democrats are blasting the Trump administration’s plan to slash $8 billion in clean energy funding across a swath of states that all voted for Kamala Harris in 2024, calling it an abuse of power, POLITICO’s Kelsey Tamborrino and colleagues report. “By the way, there’s a lot of Republicans in Minnesota,” Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, whose state is targeted for cuts, told POLITICO. “So they’re trying to retaliate against me or Sen. [Amy] Klobuchar and the result is all Minnesotans’ utility bills go up? What’s the point of that? That’s so stupid.” 7. LIVE FROM NEW YORK: If Zohran Mamdani wins the New York City mayoral race in November, he is poised to become the first NYC mayor without majority support, POLITICO’s Joe Anuta writes. “The front-runner has consistently polled at around 45 percent in the contentious general election, far short of anything that could be considered a mandate, even as he continues to best second-place contender Andrew Cuomo by double digits. … If Mamdani wins without even a simple majority, it will make it that much more difficult to construct coalitions to advance his agenda.” Ripples in the water: “The Mamdani Effect,” by N.Y. Mag’s David Freedlander: “Democrats seem to be acting differently since June. Is that a coincidence?” 8. MUSK READ: “Tesla’s Car Sales Rose 7% as U.S. E.V. Tax Credit Was Ending,” by NYT’s Jack Ewing. “Tesla sales jumped from July to September, breaking a string of quarterly declines, as U.S. car buyers raced to collect federal tax credits of up to $7,500 before the incentives expired at the end of last month. But other automakers, including Ford, General Motors and Hyundai, reported much sharper jumps in U.S. electric vehicle sales during the third quarter. Analysts and industry executives expect sales of electric vehicles to slump in coming months because Congress ended the tax credits and other incentives.” Related read: “Elon Musk’s SpaceX Took Money Directly From Chinese Investors, Company Insider Testifies,” by ProPublica’s Justin Elliott and Joshua Kaplan
| | | | A message from PhRMA:  
Investing $500B in U.S. biopharma manufacturing and infrastructure, thousands of new jobs, and improved access to affordable medicines, see how we're putting America first. | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | A HEARTWARMING READ — “D.C. cat guy goes viral fostering and bottle feeding hundreds of kittens,” by WaPo’s Roxanne Roberts: “Because the universe loves a good laugh, today [Abdul] Raheem is a social media star thanks to his love of fostering kittens. … Now ‘Abdul’s Cats’ has a devoted audience on social media — about 600,000 followers across platforms — about fostering, adoption and the charms of being a cat owner in D.C.” POLITICO MOVES — The New York team is announcing a slate of new roles: Nick Reisman has been named Albany bureau chief, Ry Rivard will cover regional infrastructure, Emily Ngo will cover technology, Mona Zhang will cover energy and Janaki Chadha will cover housing and affordability. Read the announcement TRANSITIONS — Paul Teller has launched his own consulting firm, Teller Strategies. He previously was at Advancing American Freedom. … Keeley Hanlon is now a managing director in FTI Consulting’s public affairs practice. She previously worked at Purple Strategies. … Christian Curto is now EVP of advertising at TAG Strategies. He previously worked at Targeted Victory and is a Campaign Solutions alum. … … Geoffrey Derrick has joined Boies Schiller Flexneer as partner. He previously worked at Kobre & Kim. … Bree Raum, Brian Bombassaro and Caitlin Kovalkoski have joined Arnold & Porter. Raum previously worked at Air Products, Bombassaro previously worked on the Senate Finance Committee and Kovalkoski previously worked at the Department of Commerce. … Paul Iskajyan is now comms director for New Democrat Coalition. He previously worked for Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.). Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Zack Stanton, deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook PM misspelled Alexis Reisin Miller’s name.
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