| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine, Ali Bianco and Rachel Umansky-Castro On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Dasha discuss the prospect (or otherwise) of a third term for Donald Trump, what he's hoping to get out of a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping … and why the Pentagon hates Hollywood’s latest disaster movie.
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| Good Wednesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard. Get in touch. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — What Abbe Lowell is reading: “Three words in Letitia James’ mortgage contract could doom the fraud case against her,” by POLITICO’s Hassan Ali Kanu. Read it: There’s a “glaring issue” with the Justice Department’s politically charged accusation that New York AG Letitia James rented out a second home in violation of her loan agreement, Hassan writes this morning. The problem? “The mortgage contract James signed does not prohibit renting out the house, according to POLITICO’s review of the contract and legal and real estate experts,” he reports. “In fact, the key language in the contract expressly allows renting under certain conditions.” Shoe-leather reporting: Hassan visited the Norfolk, Virginia, courthouse to obtain the documents in question, before asking multiple experts to review the evidence. “That small clause is a big deal because it undermines a fundamental allegation in the indictment, which is that James signed a contract that bars renting,” Hassan tells Playbook via email. “A determination that the government got that wrong would legitimate questions that have been raised about why James was indicted in the first place, and about the integrity of the prosecutors who filed the charges.” Watch this space: James is expected to file a claim this week of vindictive prosecution. A trial has been scheduled for Jan. 26. In today’s Playbook … — Sorry, Steve Bannon … Trump just ruled out a third term in office. — The question all New York is asking: Who framed Bill de Blasio? — And it’s Happy Jerome Powell Day: Interest rates should get cut this afternoon.
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
“I’m not allowed to run," President Donald Trump said of a potential third presidential bid, noting that it was "too bad." | Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images | TRUMP’S KOREA ENDER: As this email lands in your inbox, Trump should be sitting down for dinner with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and other Pacific leaders on the final leg of his weeklong Asian tour. Difficult trade and investment talks lie ahead — and that’s before Trump moves on to the main event tomorrow, a high-stakes bilateral summit with President Xi Jinping. Trump’s been enjoying himself, as you’d expect. Lunch with Lee featured a seafood salad tossed in that famous Korean staple, Thousand Island Dressing — plus a “gold-adorned brownie” for dessert, which sounds very Mar-a-Lago. Indeed, Lee just presented Trump with his very own golden crown … so much for “no kings.” But the big news came just before Trump landed in Korea, when the president was pressed again by journos on Air Force One if he’s serious about standing for a third term. And after months of publicly toying with the idea (despite the clear wording of the 22nd Amendment), Trump last night seemed to finally accept his fate. From the horse’s mouth: “I don’t even want to talk about that, because the sad thing is I have the highest [poll] numbers I ever had,” a rueful-sounding Trump replied. He stated again that he’d “probably like to run” in 2028, but this time added: “If you read it, it’s pretty clear: I’m not allowed to run. It’s too bad. But we have a lot of great people.” Listen to him here So even Trump says the constitution is clear on this point. Can we all now put this to bed? Nope: Liberals won’t believe him. MAGA world won’t want to believe him. Steve Bannon will keep pushing the idea because he finds it amusing. And around we all go. But here’s the reality: Trump has pushed every boundary this year, extended his powers wherever possible; bent every rule and ignored every norm of the presidency. But given the absolute clarity of the 22nd Amendment, it’s pretty much plain impossible to imagine Chief Justice John Roberts & co. letting this one pass. It’s also true that Trump has clearly enjoyed playing with the idea in public — perhaps, as Speaker Mike Johnson suggested yesterday, to troll his opponents … Or perhaps, as Dasha suggests on the Playbook Podcast this morning, to delay as long as possible the moment he becomes a lame duck. Perhaps both. So a fun question for this morning: What did Johnson say on that White House call to convince Trump to finally rule it out? Moving on from 2028: As you’d expect, the president had plenty more to say overnight, first in his gaggle with reporters on AF1 and then via another rambling, joke-spattered speech, to business leaders in the Korean city of Gyeongju. Most strikingly, Trump doubled down on the idea that he could send more than just the National Guard to keep order on U.S. streets. “I can send the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines,” Trump said. “I can send anybody I want.” To be clear: Trump did say repeatedly he has no plans to make such a move — but insisted the Insurrection Act does give him such powers if he deems it necessary. Have we ever heard a U.S. president make statements about the U.S. military like this? Getting back to Asia: Trump sounded upbeat about his summit with Xi, vowing big progress on trade and fentanyl. (The WSJ reports a classic quid pro quo is on the cards.) “I think we’re gonna have a great meeting,” Trump said. “A lot of problems are going to be solved.” TikTok will also likely come up, while Dems in Illinois are pushing hard for a soy bean deal, as this letter makes clear. Plenty of Republicans from rural districts will be praying for the same. WWIII watch: NBC reports some of Trump’s aides also fear he may make some kind of concession on Taiwan as part of a deal with Xi. But the president shrugged it off last night. “I don’t know that we’ll even speak about Taiwan,” Trump said. “He may want to ask about it. There’s not that much to ask about. Taiwan is Taiwan.” More war and peace: Trump also insisted the devastating Gaza air strikes ordered by Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday, in retaliation for the killing of an Israeli soldier, did not threaten his cherished peace agreement. “Nothing’s going to jeopardise the ceasefire,” Trump said. (Israel said this morning the ceasefire is back in place, per AP.) And Trump is now ruling out a meeting with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un this week — but said he hoped to arrange a summit in the near future. “Our focus now is on China,” Trump said. PLAYBOOK PLEA: We know you’re used to us telling you what’s important — now it’s your turn. We want to hear from our Playbook readers about the issues that matter to them. Please take a few minutes and fill out this survey. It’s a chance to shape the first thing you read every day.
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Learn how Optum is redefining pharmacy care at optum.com/redefineRX. | | | | TRAIL MIX THE QUESTION EVERYONE IS ASKING: Who framed Bill de Blasio? The Times of London last night deleted an explosive “interview” with the former NYC mayor, in which he appeared to question the economic plans of Democratic frontrunner Zohran Mamdani, who he’s enthusiastically backing in next week’s mayoral race. Just one problem: De Blasio never spoke to The Times of London. At all. “The Times has apologised to Bill de Blasio and removed the article immediately after discovering that our reporter had been misled by an individual falsely claiming to be the former New York mayor,” a spokeswoman for the British newspaper said, per the NYT’s Emma Fitzsimmons. De Blasio said he was “astounded,” describing the comments attributed to him as a “complete fabrication.” Oh dear. So what on earth happened? It’s a pretty oddball stitch-up, if that’s what happened. Why Bill de Blasio? Why the Times of London? The accusations of dirty tricks are already buzzing around NYC … Only six days to go! FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Countdown to Election Day: Democracy Defenders PAC is planning to invest over $1 million across key races in Virginia, New Jersey and Pennsylvania — including a $300,000 investment in the Keystone State’s hotly contested Supreme Court retention campaign … And the GOP is now spending more on TV ads for the Virginia AG matchup than in the main race for the governor’s mansion, with the text-message scandal surrounding Democratic candidate Jay Jones having opened up a potential path to victory, NBC’s Ben Kamisar reports. REDISTRICTING HITS THE BUFFERS: Bad news for Hakeem Jeffries — Maryland Democrats are taking themselves out of the 2026 redistricting arms race. Bill Ferguson, the Democratic leader of the Maryland state Senate, yesterday rejected national party efforts to counter Republican redistricting with a push of their own, POLITICO’s Brakkton Booker reports. Ferguson cited legal risks, a tight timeline and fears the remapping could backfire in a letter explaining his decision. And it’s not just Dems: Despite intense White House pressure, plenty of Republicans aren’t going there either — which means some red states don’t have the critical mass to pass new maps, POLITICO’s Andrew Howard reports. “Republicans in state houses are showing that Trump and his team cannot coerce veteran local politicians, many of whom are elderly, in safe seats and unconcerned with the national political landscape,” he writes. “Their collective shrug at Trump’s threats shows the limits of his authority.” That said, there’s still a whole lot of redistricting going on. Here’s the latest state of play, per Playbook’s homemade tracker:
- The done deals: Texas (R+5), North Carolina (R+1), Missouri (R+1)
- The imminent adopters: California (D+5), Utah (D+2), Ohio (R+3)
- Waiting on SCOTUS: Louisiana (R+1) and Alabama (R+1)
- Under pressure to act: Indiana, Illinois, Virginia and Florida.
- Waiting on a court ruling — but unlikely to tip for Dems: Wisconsin.
- No-gos (for now): Kansas, Nebraska, Maryland, New Hampshire, Oregon, New York.
In summary: Republicans have so far carved out seven districts (across three different states) that they believe they can flip under new maps. Democrats can blunt a significant portion of that if the California redistricting plan gets the green light next Tuesday — but the Dems’ path to cancel out further GOP gains gets much more difficult from there. And of course — if the Supreme Court rules to gut the Voting Rights Act by January, Republican pickups could soar right off the chart.
| | | | A message from Optum: Optum is redefining pharmacy care, providing real-time pricing, personalized support, and over $1 billion in savings last year alone. Learn more at optum.com/redefineRX. | | | | THE ECONOMY, STUPID JAY’S WAY: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by another quarter-point today, in a nod to the worsening labor market — with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hotly anticipated news conference scheduled for 2:30 p.m. But the central bank is now in uncharted territory as it heads toward the end of the year. Flying blind: Don’t expect much clarity on the Fed’s plans for its December meeting, POLITICO’s Victoria Guida writes this morning. The bank is operating with massively reduced visibility because of the government shutdown, lacking crucial data reports on trade, jobs, inflation and GDP upon which it relies to make policy decisions. And the longer the shutdown goes, the harder the Fed’s job will be, WaPo’s Andrew Ackerman writes, as the board of governors will be working with increasingly outdated information and risks misreading the state of the economy. SPEAKING OF TARIFFS: Bit of a jaw-dropper in the Senate last night, with the chamber actually defying the White House (yes, really) and approving a resolution to zero-out Trump’s tariffs on Brazil. The chamber voted 52-48 to end the national emergencies Trump used to justify the levies, POLITICO’s Daniel Desrochers reports. The resolution is unlikely to progress any further, given new House rules can prevent a vote there. But it proved an anti-Trump majority can be found in the Senate, with the likes of Susan Collins (R-Maine), Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) all voting with the Democrats. It’s a trend to watch.
| | | | Join POLITICO and FICO for a policy briefing that delves into the latest obstacles to preventing financial fraud, and the new technologies aimed at protecting consumers. Gain insights from government leaders and industry experts from Aspen Institute, Identity Theft Resource Center, Microsoft Security and more! Register to attend or watch online. | | | | | ELSEWHERE ON THE HILL WHERE YOUR MONEY GOES: “Meet the Senate aide with a $44,000 taxpayer-funded commute,” by POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman: “The top aide to Sen. Roger Marshall of Kansas charged $44,000 to taxpayers over the past two years in commuting expenses between Washington and Lynchburg, Virginia, where he lives, according to public records." Whiskey tango foxtrot: To be clear — congressional staffers do not normally get their commuting expenses refunded. But the reimbursements paid to Brent Robertson are legal and comply with congressional rules governing expense reimbursements, according to experts who reviewed his arrangement. Those experts said the set-up was, however, highly unusual, and at odds with the intent behind those rules. Right of reply: “Payton Fuller, a spokesperson for Marshall, said the senator is permitted under Senate rules to designate a ‘remote duty station’ for his employees, which would allow them to expense work trips to Washington.” Oh — and there’s also this: “Robertson’s decision to live in Lynchburg and seek travel expenses back and forth is further complicated by the fact that he continued to own a Washington condo that he claimed as his primary residence, until it was sold in May, according to D.C. property tax records,” Daniel reveals. SHUTDOWN DAY 29: We’re now three days away from food assistance programs running out of cash, with Senate Democrats preparing a bill to fund November SNAP benefits plus food aid for low-income women and children, POLITICO’s Grace Yarrow reports. That will compete with Sen. Josh Hawley’s (R-Mo.) own bill funding SNAP; while Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.) is introducing a bill in the House to fund the WIC program, per the Hill’s Emily Brooks. Health care debate: Open enrollment for ACA plans is also looming on Nov. 1, with the White House arguing there will be lower premiums next year in a memo shared with congressional Republicans, Axios’ Stef Kight reports. But sticker shock is already hitting ACA enrollees across the country, with rates soaring way beyond what many can afford, WSJ’s Anna Wilde Mathews and Sabrina Siddiqui report. Senate Majority Leader John Thune told POLITICO’s Jordain Carney that shutdown talks have “picked up,” noting that deadlines “have a way of doing that.” Read more from POLITICO’s Inside Congress The latest GOP beef: VP JD Vance got an earful during his meeting with Senate Republicans yesterday about Trump’s plans to import Argentine beef — with one senator telling Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller and Burgess Everett that the administration “just threw the ranchers out and caused the beef market to plummet.” … Vance also told reporters after the meeting that the White House found a way to ensure funding for paying the military during the shutdown, POLITICO’s Mia McCarthy and Jordain Carney report.
| | | BEST OF THE REST IN COURT AT 6 P.M. TONIGHT … AND EVERY NIGHT: U.S. Border Patrol chief Gregory Bovino, who has been ordered by a federal judge to provide daily, in-person updates on his agency’s controversial immigration enforcement actions, which is a little embarrassing. It’s part of an ongoing lawsuit alleging federal agents violated court orders restricting their use of force, POLITICO’s Shia Kapos writes from Chicago. Take it to the en banc: Meanwhile, the full bench of the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals has agreed to reconsider whether to permit Trump’s deployment of the National Guard in Portland — so vacating a previous panel decision that allowed the deployment, POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney reports. DUFFY GETS LOOMERED: Playbook’s Adam Wren caught up with far-right activist and Trump-friendly MAGA influencer Laura Loomer, whose attacks have bedeviled the careers of multiple administration appointees and created headaches for Cabinet members. And she made it clear that she has thoughts on Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy’s hopes of retaining leadership of NASA. “I don’t really have an ax to grind with Sean Duffy,” said Loomer, who has been pushing the president to choose tech billionaire and SpaceX astronaut Jared Isaacman as NASA administrator over Duffy. “I just think it’s a no-brainer to have Jared Isaacman. Jared Isaacman is highly qualified. … You want to have somebody leading NASA who actually understands space.” If Isaacman doesn’t get the post, Loomer added, “we are going to lose the space race to China, which we already are. But, you know, that’s what happens when you have a reality TV star and you make him the Department of Transportation secretary.” Oof. (DOT did not respond to a request for comment.) MIDDLE EAST LATEST: “Israel’s military says ceasefire is back on as death toll from overnight strikes in Gaza reaches 81,” by AP’s Wafaa Shurafa and Josh Boak NEW COMPASS COLUMN: “With Every Boat Strike, Trump Exploits a Power Asymmetry,” by POLITICO’s Nahal Toosi: “Trump is building up America’s military presence in the Caribbean, blowing up alleged drug boats as part of an anti-cartel campaign in the region, and threatening regime change in Venezuela. … Tourism, fishing and other parts of the regional economy could suffer if this campaign drags on. Caribbean officials also worry about the impact on migrant flows, even though some publicly support the U.S. efforts. Yet, many Caribbean leaders can barely get U.S. officials to talk to them about their plans, much less heed such long-term fears.” THE BOOM BUST: “White House urged firing live bombs, not dummies, for Trump’s visit to Navy celebration,” by AP’s Aamer Madhani and colleagues: “White House officials insisted to Navy planners that Trump ‘needed to see explosions’ instead of just a ‘big splash’ during the Oct. 5 demonstration. … The White House said no switch was made.” PERSONNEL CHANGES: The White House fired all six members of the Commission of Fine Arts, which was expected to review Trump’s construction projects, including the White House ballroom, WaPo’s Dan Diamond scoops. … And vaccine skeptic Steven Hatfill was sacked from his senior biosecurity adviser job at HHS over the weekend for misrepresenting his job title, Bloomberg’s Rachel Cohrs Zhang reports.
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➡️ Sign up for West Wing Playbook | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | Kai Trump will make her LPGA Tour debut next month, after receiving a sponsor exemption to play in The Annika at Pelican Golf Club. South Park is teasing more Trump trolling to come in a special Halloween episode airing this Friday, spotlighting his demolition of the East Wing. OUT AND ABOUT — The British Embassy hosted a private lunch with Anthony Seldon, Britain’s preeminent historian and biographer of prime ministers, who led a lively conversation on the enduring “special relationship” between the U.S. and U.K. SPOTTED: British Chargé d'Affaires James Roscoe, Lucy Ferguson, Mungo Woodifield, Ed Roman, Stewart McLaurin, Douglas Bradburn, Mark Vlasic, Steve Galpern, Martina Droth, Daniel Collings, Colin Moneymaker and Katy Balls. NEW FROM POLITICO CANADA — The Playbook Canada podcast: Top colleagues Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Mickey Djuric — the plugged-in reporters behind Canada Playbook — are bringing their insight to a new weekly podcast. Each Thursday morning, they’ll unpack the stories driving the news in Ottawa, along with rapid-fire “200-second interviews” with the people shaping Canadian politics. The first episode drops tomorrow, Oct. 30. Listen to the trailer and subscribe on Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. TRANSITIONS — Bernadette Breslin is now comms director for Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.). She previously worked for Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.). … Connor Pfeiffer is now senior director of government relations at FDD Action. He previously worked for Sen. Dave McCormick (R-Pa.). … Aly Rau Brodsky will be EVP and chief strategy officer at the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity. She most recently was at Louisiana Works. ENGAGED — Peter Olsen-Phillips, Medicaid policy manager at the Association for Community Affiliated Plans, and Anju Abraham, internal comms manager at Momentus Capital, got engaged on Oct. 17. He popped the question in Times Square. Pic … Another pic WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Heidi Sommer, VP of media business at POLITICO, and Gordon Forrest, intelligence analyst at Lawrence Livermore National Lab, recently welcomed Jackson “Jax” DuBose Forrest. He came in at 7 lbs, 2 oz. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker … Kat Timpf … NBC’s Laura Jarrett … Kate Bedingfield … former HUD Secretary Marcia Fudge … Jim Messina … MSNBC’s Ali Velshi and David Siegel … Punchbowl’s Dave Clarke … POLITICO’s Steve Heuser … Robert George … Washington Examiner’s Jamie McIntyre … Geoff Turley … Isabelle James … Mike Saccone … Bob Stevenson … Natalie Jones Hallahan of the Meridian International Center … WSJ’s Kate Bachelder Odell … David Corvo … Daisy Gordon … Justin McCartney … Laura Kupe … CNN’s Avery Miller … former Sen. Connie Mack III (R-Fla.) … Peter Albrecht … Aaron Jacobs … Ryan Quinn … Anthony Pardal of the American Bankers Association … Dimitri Simes … Mimi Montgomery … former Interior Secretary Dirk Kempthorne … Amalia Corby … Nelson Cunningham … Mara Mellstrom Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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