| | | |  | | By Adam Wren | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine, Ali Bianco and Rachel Umansky-Castro On today’s Playbook Podcast: Adam and Andrew Howard discuss the candidate profiles that have some Democrats sweating about the prospects in key primaries.
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| Good Tuesday morning. Adam Wren here again. Get in touch. In today’s Playbook … — Why some Democrats are worrying their own party in key primary races. — What economists are expecting from the preliminary estimate for third-quarter growth. — The POLITICO Poll finds Canadians, Germans and French souring on the U.S.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
Some Democrats are urging a harder look at their candidates in red and purple districts and states after Democrat Aftyn Behn came up short in a Tennessee special election in early December. | George Walker IV/AP Photo | PRIMARY PAIN: Democrats are making their list and checking it twice — and believe voters are gonna find out who wants to defund the police or abolish ICE. With a slate of crucial 2026 primaries ahead, some Democrats are urging a harder look at their candidates in red and purple districts and states. Much of their consternation is over what they view as ultra-liberal positions that are resistance relics of Trump 1.0, ones they think won’t age well among median voters in states where Democrats already absorbed setbacks. “I think the smart strategy here is just to make sure you have as many of the candidates who fit the states and districts that they're trying to win, so that you put yourself in a position to pick up as many seats as possible if this ends up being a blue wave environment,” Adam Jentleson, a Democratic strategist and president of the Searchlight Institute, told Playbook. The party is bidding farewell to a 2025 that saw Democrats across the country winning or overperforming in 227 out of 255 key elections — nearly 90 percent of races, according to a memo this week by DNC Deputy Executive Director Libby Schneider. And now Democrats are beginning to realize they could be on the doorstep of a better than expected 2026. “With another 40%+ overperformance by a Democrat from the top of the 2024 ticket earlier this week in Kentucky, and as Democrats enter the midterm year, our party should feel buoyed by the strong results we’ve seen up and down the ballot all year long,” Schneider wrote in a memo obtained by Playbook. “Across red, purple, and blue states, Democrats have gotten off the mat and proven that when you organize everywhere, you can win anywhere — in every part of the country.” But the concerns over vetting intensified after Tennessee Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn eroded President Donald Trump’s double-digit margin in a deep-red district earlier this month, but still lost as Republicans attacked her position on defunding the police. “The problem is that the left just is unalterably dedicated to this proposition that if you are more radical, you will turn out more voters, and it keeps being disproven over and over and over,” said Matt Bennett, executive VP of public affairs at the center-left think tank Third Way. In a memo following the Tennessee result, Third Way argued Behn had “toxic positions” that kept her from winning. “There are two projects going on in the Democratic Party right now. One is winning political power so we can stop Trump’s calamity. The other is turning blue places bluer,” the memo said. “If far-left groups want to help save American democracy, they should stop pushing their candidates in swing districts and costing us flippable seats.”
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Visit ms.now for more. | | | | Some high-profile candidates in pivotal battleground, purplish and red states have a history of taking the type of positions on the police and abolishing ICE that some believe could trip them up in similar ways in states Democrats think they have a shot to win. In Iowa: Democrats here flipped two seats, scoring three victories out of five specials, averaging an overperformance of 21 points in the process. But Democratic state Sen. Zach Wahls could run into some problems in the reddening state — even as he embraces affordability as a key issue. In May of 2020, he posted to X about problems in policing, noting that “extrajudicial killing of black people by white people is not a ‘black problem’ — it is a white problem.” He also said police killing of Black people was “not a bad apple issue.” He also voted against a bill designed to punish cities that reduced their police budgets amid calls to defund the police by cutting state funding. “If you look at my record, I've never supported defunding the police,” Wahls said in an interview with Playbook. “Never been somebody who said that law enforcement are bad people. In fact, I’ve been endorsed by multiple law enforcement leaders, both current and retired sheriffs here in the state. So from my perspective, I think apples and oranges.” Wahls’ campaign also sent Playbook two statements from Iowa county sheriffs and sheriff’s deputies backing Wahls. In Michigan: Democrats are looking to three millennial candidates for cues about where the national party might head, as the three face off for the nomination to defend retiring Sen. Gary Peters’ seat. The three-way primary pits Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and former health official Abdul El-Sayed against each other — and one candidate in particular has the type of online history that could make some Democrats sweat. El-Sayed erased dozens of tweets backing the defunding of the police movement. He also said in a podcast appearance in June 2020: “I believe that we do need to defund the police, insofar as defunding the police is disinvesting in the means of incarcerating someone or killing them on the streets and investing more in the means of educating and empowering engaging communities with the means of being able to take on systemic poverty that we've allowed systematic racism to allow to fester in too many communities.” (In an interview with the Detroit News this year, El-Sayed added: “I want to be clear, I actually never, never called for defunding. My goal in that conversation was to help everybody to understand what we were talking about.”) El-Sayed has also backed abolishing ICE and was seen wearing an “Abolish ICE” T-shirt in an NYT photo. Asked for comment, El-Sayed told Playbook: “It’s not outrageous for Americans to question why so much of our taxpayer money — more than the FBI and the U.S. marines — is being spent on an organization that is raiding preschools and Home Depots.” In Texas: Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett — who is running in a crowded Democratic Senate primary field that includes state Rep. James Talarico — faces tough sledding on both issues. She has said that the “defund movement seeks to actually bring about healing,” and that the “movement is a reaction to injustice and inaction.” She, too, has criticized ICE agents, comparing them to the Ku Klux Klan. “The idea that every candidate in a red or purple state should be a carbon copy is why we continue to lose,” Crockett said in a statement to Playbook. “Every state is different and unique in ways you can’t understand until you’ve breathed that air and lived that life.” Of ICE, Crockett added: “You tell me how these are not modern slave patrols. The hood of yesteryear is replaced with a mask and unmarked vest.” For all of these candidates, though, Jentleson argues that the positions could be problematic by the time general elections roll around. “You just got to be realistic about the electorates — the nature of the electorates these people are trying to win — and just be strategic about putting pieces on the board that are best positioned to win all of those races,” Jentleson said. SPEAKING OF PRIMARIES … FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Shapiro’s coattails: Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro’sendorsement of Bob Brooks helped the firefighter union head take the lead in a Change Research poll of Democrats’ crowded primary to unseat GOP Rep. Ryan Mackenzie in the competitive 7th Congressional District, POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky writes in. The potential 2028er is working to deliver as many as four House seats for Democrats in the midterms (the party needs to net three seats to flip the chamber). Brooks was initially second behind Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure, with 53 percent of likely Democratic primary voters undecided. Once respondents were shown bios of the candidates, including that Brooks was endorsed by Shapiro and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Brooks opened up a double-digit lead over the field as undecideds shrank to 16 percent. The poll of 892 likely voters commissioned by The Bench didn’t test one of the five candidates and had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. A NEW YORK MINUTE: George Conway, an ardent Trump critic, has filed the paperwork to run in New York’s 12 Congressional District, the seat held by retiring Democratic Rep. Jerry Nadler that has drawn a crowded primary field, WaPo’s Hannah Knowles reports. A person close to Conway confirmed the filing and said he would “have more to say about his plans in early 2026.” Meanwhile, NYC Council Member Erik Bottcher dropped out of the primary to instead mount a state Senate bid, per City & State’s Peter Sterne and Jeff Coltin.
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| | | | IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID ANOTHER BIG DATA DROP: The Commerce Department is set to release its preliminary estimate for third-quarter growth at 8:30 a.m., and the consensus view among economists is that the U.S. expanded at an annual rate of 3.2 percent, POLITICO’s Sam Sutton writes in. That’s softer than the 3.8 percent notched this spring, but it would be an impressive tally — and one that suggests Trump’s administration is meeting the lofty projections that were set by his allies at the outset of his second term. As it stands, Trump’s pro-growth economic agenda hasn’t translated into higher payrolls or bigger pay raises. And that’s a sign that the U.S. could be experiencing what Mohamed El-Erian has described as an “unsettling phenomenon”: the decoupling of gross domestic product growth from employment. What we’re increasingly seeing is “more output with the same or fewer workers,” El-Erian, a professor at Wharton School and chief economic adviser at Allianz, told Sam. The arrival of AI is diminishing “labor intensity” as a driver for economic growth, he said. And if workers aren’t benefiting from the upside, that will make GDP far less salient to the U.S. political landscape moving forward. That has not happened (at least not yet). And with regard to today’s third-quarter GDP estimate, economists expect the shrinking trade deficit, technology-related capital investments and steady consumer spending — particularly among the wealthy — to mask any of the economy’s weaknesses. But if AI is on the cusp of causing meaningful, permanent disruptions to the labor market, that would pose a serious political challenge for Trump at a time when a majority of voters already hold negative views of his economic stewardship. Read more from POLITICO’s Morning Money (for Pro subscribers!) THE STEPBACK: The U.S. economy’s 2025 mixed bag has been something of a paradox — it has remained surprisingly resilient even as certain indicators grow worse, NYT’s Ben Casselman and Colby Smith write. Unemployment, wage growth, cost of living and consumer spending have struggled, yet Trump argues that the economy will improve next year, and some forecasters agree. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The affordability agenda: Care in Action is going up with a six-figure digital ad campaign hammering vulnerable House Republicans over the expiring enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies. The spots from Fight Agency target GOP Reps. Juan Ciscomani (Ariz.), David Valadao (Calif.), Derrick Van Orden (Wis.) and Jen Kiggans (Va.) with a “’Twas the Night Before Christmas” riff. Watch the Kiggans spot KNOWING PETER NAVARRO: The Trump trade adviser and protectionist extraordinaire gets the New Yorker profile treatment from Ian Parker, who writes that Navarro has hung on in Trump world through extreme, fawning loyalty to the president. He helped create the “Liberation Day” tariffs and is still a true believer, even as some others trash him: “I don’t know why he still goes to work, or if he even knows how boxed out he is,” one Trump administration source says. “His life is a fiction. He’s not a player at all.” Navarro shoots back that anonymous sources “have always sought to marginalize my role.”
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| | | | JUDICIARY SQUARE IMMIGRATION FILES: The Trump administration has some new holiday work to begin today, after federal judge James Boasberg ordered them to submit plans by Jan. 5 for returning or giving due process to the roughly 200 men the U.S. deported to CECOT in March, per ABC. The monthslong disappearance of the Venezuelans into the Salvadoran mega-prison, despite Boasberg’s order blocking their removal, has been the subject of an Alien Enemies Act court fight almost all year. Boasberg is giving the men a chance to fight their designations as alleged gang members, which DHS has insisted on while refusing to provide evidence in many cases. Speaking of CECOT: Federal judge Paula Xinis yesterday continued to block the administration from detaining and deporting Kilmar Abrego Garcia, who was mistakenly sent back to El Salvador before being returned, per CBS. The temporary restraining order’s extension came as Xinis questioned whether DOJ’s series of errors had undercut a presumption of good faith to give them the benefit of the doubt. And an accidentally unredacted filing shows that Deputy AG Todd Blanche’s office played a key role in pushing for Abrego to be criminally prosecuted after he was wrongly deported, NOTUS reports. And there’s more: After Bari Weiss temporarily blocked a CBS “60 Minutes” report on CECOT from airing, kicking up a media and political firestorm, it turns out that the segment did air in Canada nonetheless — and is now going around online, per The Hollywood Reporter. The unearthing of the video will allow observers to clock any differences if and when a Weiss-approved version airs stateside. “60 Minutes” executive producer Tanya Simon told colleagues yesterday that she stood by the story Sharyn Alfonsi had reported but “ultimately had to comply” with Weiss, WaPo’s Liam Scott and Scott Nover report. (Meanwhile, Katie Miller called for “60 Minutes” to fire Alfonsi and “clean house.”) Meanwhile in Chicago: After a judge blocked the Trump administration from limiting lawmakers’ oversight visits to immigration detention facilities, four Illinois Democrats toured one in Broadview and said they were concerned about its future capacity, per the Chicago Sun-Times. WEAPONIZATION WATCH: Former CIA Director John Brennan made a very unusual request to a chief federal judge in Florida, asking that she prevent a major criminal probe into Trump’s political enemies from being assigned to Aileen Cannon, NYT’s Charlie Savage scooped. Brennan’s lawyer warned that DOJ was trying to game the system to have a politicized case sent to Cannon, who’s issued a series of major rulings in Trump’s favor, and accused Cannon of bias. This stems from U.S. Attorney Jason Reding Quiñones’ extraordinary investigation of what Trump’s allies have asserted was a “deep state” conspiracy against Trump. HEADS UP: “New trove of apparent Epstein files posted on DOJ site disappear,” by POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney and Erica Orden: “Tens of thousands of documents that appeared to be from the [Jeffrey] Epstein files were briefly posted on the Justice Department’s website Monday before disappearing without explanation. … [T]he URL corresponded with an anticipated eighth ‘dataset’ of documents that officials were expected to release. … Justice Department spokespeople didn’t respond to POLITICO’s requests for comment … [The documents] paint the clearest picture yet of prosecutors’ efforts to amass evidence against Epstein.” FOR YOUR RADAR: Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio) filed a lawsuit against Trump yesterday “seeking to force the removal of his name from the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts,” NYT’s Shawn McCreesh reports. “Ms. Beatty’s lawsuit names as defendants Mr. Trump and the loyalists he appointed to the center’s board. The suit contends that the board’s vote to change the name last week was illegal because an act of Congress is required to rename the building. … A senior White House official told The Times last week that the administration rejected that interpretation and that the White House did not anticipate Congress getting involved to override the board’s decision.” DISMANTLING THE GOVERNMENT: Twenty-one attorneys general from Democratic-led states and D.C. filed a federal lawsuit to try to stop OMB Director Russ Vought’s latest effort to take apart the CFPB, per the WSJ. They argued that it’s illegal for Vought to stop funding the agency, where money may run dry next month. STICKING TO THEIR GUNS: DOJ sued D.C. over its effective ban on semiautomatic rifles, calling the restriction unconstitutional in a filing against city police, per WaPo. The feds said the capital city’s limits had run afoul of the Supreme Court’s landmark 2008 Heller ruling. SCOTUS WATCH: A forthcoming Georgetown Law Journal Online study could undercut one of the historical arguments Trump is making to try to end birthright citizenship, NYT’s Adam Liptak reports. UNCHARTED TERRITORY: At Trump’s urging, at least four of the 37 men whose federal death sentences Joe Biden commuted could face new state-level efforts to execute them, NYT’s Eduardo Medina reports. BEST OF THE REST WHAT’S IN A NAME: Trump’s big announcement at Mar-a-Lago yesterday was to unveil a new class of Navy battleships — named after himself. The U.S. intends to build a couple dozen of the flagship vessels, huge new ships that are meant to compete with China and other adversaries as part of the Navy’s “Golden Fleet.” More from the Washington Examiner In the hemisphere: Trump continued to saber-rattle against South American leaders, saying that it’d be “smart” for Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to step down, per CNN: “If he plays tough, it’d be the last time he’s ever able to play tough.” DHS Secretary Kristi Noem told Fox News that Maduro “needs to be gone.” Trump said Colombian President Gustavo Petro has “got to watch his ass” over cocaine trafficking, per Axios. His comments came as the U.S. remains in pursuit of a third tanker carrying Venezuelan oil. Despite the intense pressure campaign, tankers have still been getting Venezuelan oil at a relatively regular clip, Bloomberg’s Mia Gindis reports — but activity slowed down yesterday, Reuters’ Marianna Parraga reports. More from Trump: The president said he’ll meet with defense firm leaders next week to pressure them away from fat paychecks and stock buybacks and toward spending more on weapons production, per Bloomberg. And he also reiterated his belief that the U.S. needs to take control of Greenland for national security purposes, per Bloomberg. TRANSATLANTIC TIES: Trump’s return to office has “shattered any remaining illusions among European leaders that he can be managed or controlled,” POLITICO’s Eli Stokols writes. “His open hostility toward the European Union has strained a transatlantic alliance that’s endured since World War II and deepened rifts between Europe’s national leaders and within the bloc, imperiling its ability to respond to Trump’s threats and taunts with the kind of unity and strength he respects. That’s left Ukraine’s fate hanging in the balance heading into 2026, not to mention unanswered existential questions about European security at a moment when many fear Russian President Vladimir Putin’s territorial aims extend further westward beyond Ukraine.” WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE: As Trump refashions U.S. foreign policy in his “America First” image, new POLITICO-Public First polling shows Canadians, Germans and French souring on the U.S., POLITICO’s Erin Doherty writes. Fifty-six percent of Canada thinks the U.S. is a net-negative force in the world, as do pluralities of Germany and France. The U.K. is a relatively brighter spot, as a plurality of Brits think the U.S. is a positive force. But across all four countries, adults say the U.S. creates rather than solves problems and challenges rather than supports allies. ONE TO WATCH: Over the past few weeks, the U.S. has flown intelligence-gathering and surveillance flights above swathes of Nigeria, Reuters’ Jessica Donati and Idrees Ali scooped. A FRAGILE PEACE: The U.S. and other countries are putting new energy into a conference on rebuilding Gaza, possibly in D.C. or Egypt and possibly in January, Bloomberg’s Kate Sullivan and colleagues report. UKRAINE LATEST: As Ukrainian negotiators return home from Miami, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on X that “we are very close to a real outcome,” but reviews and talks on ending Russia’s war will continue. ON THE HILL: Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) announced they’ll kill permitting reform talks in the wake of the Trump administration’s block on offshore wind projects. … Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) is going full steam ahead for a second budget reconciliation bill, he told Semafor’s Burgess Everett. … Hard-line conservative Sens. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) have long been a thorn in leadership’s side, but they’re also slowly gaining more allies to the right, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney and Jennifer Scholtes report. FALLOUT AT BROWN: The Education Department announced that it’ll investigate whether Brown University broke federal law on campus safety in the wake of the mass shooting that killed two students, The Brown Daily Herald’s Ian Ritter reports. At the same time, school president Christina Paxson announced new security initiatives and that the head of campus police would be placed on leave, per the Herald’s Annika Singh. NOTABLE QUOTABLE: Megyn Kelly told Vanity Fair’s Aidan McLaughlin that she was stunned and betrayed by Ben Shapiro’s harsh criticism at Turning Point’s AmericaFest — and she’s not backing down in arguing with the likes of Shapiro or Weiss over Israel. “They are making antisemites,” she said of prominent figures who want to shut down criticism of Israel. “Tucker [Carlson] is not making antisemites. They are.”
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Visit ms.now to learn more. | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | Cardi B was at the Nordstrom in Montgomery Mall. NEW IN TOWN — Mark Wiseman has been officially named the next Canadian ambassador to the U.S., per The Globe and Mail. The financier will take over the position in February. PLAYBOOK REAL ESTATE SECTION — “Sprecher, Loeffler Buy Georgia’s Priciest Home for $30 Million,” by Bloomberg’s Brett Pulley and Annie Massa: “Kelly Loeffler, a member of President Donald Trump’s cabinet, and her billionaire spouse, Jeffrey Sprecher, purchased a modernist estate on Georgia’s Sea Island for $30 million … The home, called Entelechy II, was designed by the late Atlanta architect and developer John Portman.” MEDIA MOVES — The Atlantic is adding Henry Grabar and Judith Shulevitz as staff writers, Chris Suellentrop as a senior editor and Uzodinma Iweala as a contributing writer. Grabar previously was at Slate. Suellentrop previously was at WaPo and is a POLITICO alum. TRANSITION — Marc Ostfield will be dean of the Colin Powell School for Civic and Global Leadership at City College of New York. He currently works at the State Department and is a former U.S. ambassador to Paraguay. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Morgan McGarvey (D-Ky.) … Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry … Texas AG Ken Paxton … Bill Kristol … Fox News’ Shannon Bream … Nat Purser of Public Knowledge … Lucinda Guinn of Ralston Lapp Guinn … DGA Group’s John Russell IV … Patrick Burgwinkle … Kelley Moore of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito’s (R-W.Va.) office … Steve Thomma of the White House Correspondents’ Association … Sophia Dycaico of Rep. Bobby Scott’s (D-Va.) office … Brittany Bolen … Danielle Ruckert of RH Strategic Communications … retired Gen. Wes Clark … Natasha Dabrowski … former EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler … Rich Tarplin … former Reps. Dave Loebsack (D-Iowa), Yadira Caraveo (D-Colo.) and Michael Burgess (R-Texas) … Jane Reffelt of Merchant McIntyre … David Jiménez of the Niskanen Center … Charlie Townsend … Jessie Brairton of Thorn Run Partners … Chris Peacock Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Garrett Ross. | | | | Follow us on X | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Canada Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | |
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