| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine, Ali Bianco and Rachel Umansky-Castro On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and POLITICO White House reporter Megan Messerly discuss the swirling foreign policy of Trump 2.0 and why all eyes are on Indiana this afternoon.
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| Good Thursday morning. This is Jack Blanchard. Get in touch. In today’s Playbook … — How America got MAGA-ified on the world stage. — Could Congress still save those Obamacare subsidies? Don’t rule it out. — And keep a close eye on Indiana, as the redistricting ruckus reaches its climax.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
Less than a year into his second term, President Donald Trump is transforming America’s relations with the world. | Alex Wong/Getty Images | NEW WORLD ORDER: Take a step back — Donald Trump is transforming America’s relations with the world before our eyes. Old rules are being rewritten, old alliances torn up. The world’s greatest superpower is shifting on its axis. In many cases, there may be no going back. After eight decades of rock-solid alliance, relations with Europe are in freefall, with Trump using his big interview with POLITICO this week to dismiss its culture as “decaying” and its leaders as “weak.” Official U.S. foreign policy now supports “patriotic European parties” aligned with the MAGA world view, most of whom are in opposition. Ukraine fears it's about to be cut adrift — or, worse still, carved up. Russia is praised for its strength. Also back on good terms is Chinese President Xi Jinping, to whom Trump has just agreed to export some of the most high-powered computer chips in the world, potentially transforming the global AI arms race. Trump and Xi plan to meet four times next year. Whispers of a new diplomatic power group containing the U.S., Russia, China, India and Japan swirl around Washington. Traditional European allies would be out of the loop. And here in the Western hemisphere, a newly aggressive America is on the march. Foreign ships are being bombed in the Caribbean on the flimsiest legal pretext. A military build-up on a scale not seen since the Cuban Missile Crisis is underway. This week Trump told one Latin American leader — Nicolás Maduro, the Venezuelan strongman — that his “days are numbered.” Last night he warned a second, Gustavo Petro of Colombia, that “he’ll be next.” Fox News hosts speak openly of “war” on the continent next year. These are huge, dramatic changes to American foreign policy, with seismic consequences no one can predict. A new world order is emerging, cut roughly in Trump’s image — and crucially, this is just the start. Any or all of these threads could develop quickly in the days ahead. Weeks have now passed since Trump delivered his ultimatum to Maduro. Trump has repeatedly said he’s preparing to attack on land. Yesterday, American troops forcibly seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, another significant escalation. Trump was asked what would happen to the oil. “We keep it, I guess,” he shrugged. Over in Europe, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last night delivered his latest peace plan to the U.S., and all signs indicate he is offering significant compromises on the Ukrainian side. He’s already responded to Trump’s POLITICO interview by offering elections in Ukraine; this latest peace document apparently also agrees territorial concessions in exchange for security guarantees, per CNN. He’ll hold a call with European and NATO allies — sans America — later this morning. But optimism about the outcome appears scarce. The WSJ revealed last night the U.S. has been handing out documents to European leaders setting out a Trumpian vision for postwar Russia and Ukraine. Needless to say, it’s highly controversial. One appendix details plans “for U.S. financial firms and other businesses to tap roughly $200 billion of frozen Russian assets for projects in Ukraine.” Another “offers America’s broad-strokes vision for bringing Russia’s economy in from the cold.” How it’s landing: “Some European officials who have seen the documents said they weren’t sure whether to take some of the U.S. proposals seriously,” the WSJ reports. “One official compared them to President Trump’s vision of building a Riviera-style development in Gaza. Another, referring to the proposed U.S.-Russia energy deals, said it was an economic version of the 1945 conference where World War II victors divvied up Europe. ‘It’s like Yalta,’ he said.” Trump more or less confirmed that his phone call yesterday with the leaders of Britain, France and Germany — traditionally among America’s closest allies, and “all good friends of mine” — did not go well. “We discussed Ukraine in pretty strong words,” Trump said, adding: “We had some little disputes.” Trump said he’d rejected, for now, their appeals for him to travel to Europe this weekend to discuss the plan in person, with Zelenskyy in tow. “We'll make a determination depending on what they come back with,” Trump said. “We don't want to be wasting time.”
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Explore Phil's story. | | | | Time is something Trump still has plenty of. Amazingly, we’re still only 10-and-a-half months into his second term. “We have three years and two months to go,” Trump told a MAGA-supporting audience in Pennsylvania this week. “And you know what that is in Trump time? Three years and two months is called — eternity.” How will his new world order look by 2029? Checks and balances to this geopolitical shift still exist, to a degree. My colleague Ankush Khardori has a great piece out this morning on the dubious legality of the Venezuelan missile strikes. Even John Yoo, the conservative legal academic who helped write the so-called “torture memos” for President George W. Bush that justified waterboarding and other harsh physical treatments of military detainees in the 2000s, says he does not believe these strikes are legal. But it’s impossible to imagine the courts — any court — providing a check on U.S. military power abroad. Indeed, Reuters reported yesterday the U.S. is threatening the International Criminal Court with sanctions if it does not guarantee Trump and other top U.S. officials immunity. Congress provides a more interesting power base to consider. After offering barely a murmur of opposition over the first half of this year, there have been signs the legislative branch may yet come sputtering back to life. Democrats are fairly united on foreign policy, Middle East aside, and a sizable hub of Hill Republicans still believe in the old alliances. That bipartisan dynamic is starting to show. The annual National Defense Authorization Act vote that passed last night saw the House hand Trump the pay rise he’d promised the military. But there were provisions in there too that hinted at battles to come. One demands congressional approval for any further big troop reductions in Europe; another threatens to cut Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s travel budget if he does not hand over video evidence regarding the most contentious missile strikes in the Caribbean. Trump himself may provide a check of sorts on his foreign policy. The oscillation we’ve seen over Ukraine throughout this year may kick in again, on any of these issues. Trump’s MAGA base is generally opposed to overseas wars and would likely balk at serious engagement in Latin America, which in itself may convince Trump to hold back. What about the wider public? Not all of Trump’s positions are unpopular domestically, though many are. Polls show most Americans do support missile strikes on Caribbean drug-smugglers, if indeed that’s who they are. And no one holds a candle for Maduro. But polls also show rock-solid American support for NATO, and by extension for western Europe. A majority of the U.S. public want to keep arming Ukraine, and for Ukraine to win. Few Americans understand the case for direct military action in Latin America, let alone support it. And this should matter to Trump. Because while it’s a truism that few people vote on foreign policy, there’s no doubt foreign policy can destroy a president’s legacy. Just ask Joe Biden about Afghanistan. Just ask Bush about Iraq.
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| | | | COST OF LIVING TODAY’S THE DAY: The longest government shutdown in history was all for this: a Democrat-led vote in the Senate this morning on extending Obamacare subsidies that we already know is going to fail. The GOP alternative — bolstering health savings accounts — will also get a vote today, and yes, it too will fall short without bipartisan support. Each side will then blame the other for blocking progress … and millions of Americans will see health care premiums soar at the end of the year. Or will they? Eleventh-hour health care moves are still afoot on the Hill, including a burgeoning rebellion over subsidies from moderate House Republicans. More than half a dozen House GOP members have signed a discharge petition to bring a two-year subsidy extension — plus reforms — directly to the House floor, going around Speaker Mike Johnson, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill and Mia McCarthy report. Among the rebels is departing Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), as MS NOW’s Mychael Schnell scooped. Those numbers would be sufficient to force the legislation from Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) and Jared Golden (D-Maine) to a floor vote … but only if all Democrats sign on. And that remains a very open question. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has supported a different discharge effort for a three-year extension without new limits. “I have no position on” the other petition, he said yesterday. The bigger picture: More Republicans appear open to some sort of extension, clearly worried about political blowback when premiums spike next month, WSJ’s Siobhan Hughes and Olivia Beavers report. But it remains to be seen if enough members can get behind any one plan. A different bipartisan extension bill has 16 GOP co-sponsors, POLITICO’s Benjamin Guggenheim scooped. Negotiations may intensify once today’s votes are out of the way. The big question: Trump. The president still hasn’t gotten behind any plan to keep the Affordable Care Act subsidies going, as the White House continues analyzing different options, POLITICO’s Cheyenne Haslett and Alex Gangitano report. I’M HELPING! As Trump struggles to stick to the script on voters’ affordability concerns, his allies tell POLITICO’s Megan Messerly and Myah Ward he’s never going to change and become a perfect messenger — but they’re still excited to have him back in campaign mode. THE VIEW FROM THE WHITE HOUSE: Trump’s deputy chief of staff James Blair’s message to Americans worried about their pocketbooks is simple: just wait till next year, Playbook’s Ali Bianco writes in. “The fundamentals of the economy are good,” Blair said at Semafor’s “Architects of the New Economy” event last night at Gallup, but he acknowledged “we still have a hole to dig out of.” Blair argued that come January, people will see wages increase, and they’ll then get a break from Trump’s tax cuts come April. TRAIL MIX RED-LIGHT REDISTRICT: After weeks of back-and forth, the Indiana state Senate is expected to gavel in at 1:30 p.m. today for its final gerrymandering vote, Playbook’s own Hoosier Adam Wren writes in. The debate could last hours. There are 50 members of the Senate — 40 Republicans and 10 Democrats. They need a simple majority of 26 to approve the House-passed maps. What to know: Everyone expects a very close vote. Some senators were still undecided — or not sharing publicly — as of yesterday, the Indiana Capital Chronicle’s Casey Smith and Tom Davies report. If there’s a tie, the Senate president, who is also the lieutenant governor, Micah Beckwith, would break the tie. He is a pro-MAGA, pro-redistricting figure. And it’s a big deal. The new map would almost certainly yield the GOP two extra congressional seats in 2026, a year when Democrats need just three seats to take back the House. Putting the squeeze on: Johnson said he thinks Indiana Republicans will push the new map through and admitted he’s been making calls to encourage state senators, Meredith Lee Hill and Adam report. Trump applied pressure his own special way — with an epic 414-word Truth Social post demanding a GOP gerrymander, issuing primary threats and calling Senate President Rodric Bray, a redistricting opponent, “either a bad guy, or a very stupid one!” RACE TO THE MIDTERMS: This week’s Miami mayoral victory thrilled Florida Democrats, but they’ve still got a long way to go to dig out of their cash-strapped, registered-voter-starved hole in the state, POLITICO’s Kimberly Leonard reports from Miami. Nationally, Dems do have reason for optimism: Bolts’ David Nichanian crunched the numbers on state legislative races this year, and found that Dems have done better than 2017 down ballot. And a new Democratic poll from PPP out today shows Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) leading Annie Andrews by 6 points. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Primary colors: Some Democrats are getting frustrated with the DSCC’s approach to Senate primaries, tagging it as variously too little involved in Texas or too heavily involved in Iowa, POLITICO’s Elena Schneider reports. And drama of a different sort is brewing down ballot in New Jersey, where Democratic Sen. Andy Kim announced he’ll support challenges to machine politicians, beginning with state Sen. Jim Beach, POLITICO’s Matt Friedman and Madison Fernandez report.
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| | | | BEST OF THE REST WHAT’S NEXT FOR FEMA: DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will lead a FEMA Review Council meeting at 1 p.m., when they’re expected to vote on plans to shrink — but not shutter — the disaster relief agency, CNN’s Gabe Cohen scooped. The recommendations propose a transformation to “FEMA 2.0,” with half the staff gone, tougher requirements for states to get federal disaster aid and a different block grant system. Big day for Noem: The DHS chief may also get grilled by Democrats when she testifies on worldwide threats before the House Homeland Security Committee at 10 a.m. Despite all the gossip and the rumors and the acres of recent reporting, Trump insisted yesterday that he’s not dissatisfied with Noem or Hegseth, per The Hill. We shall see. ELSEWHERE ON THE HILL: There’s another discharge petition from Golden, this time to undo Trump’s block on collective bargaining by federal workers. With the backing of 13 Republicans, it’ll come up for a final vote today. … Senate Armed Services will hold a hearing on the National Guard’s domestic deployments at 9:30 a.m. … And House Appropriations Dems will vote today on whether indicted Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) can reclaim his ranking member spot on a subcommittee, now that he’s been pardoned by Trump, POLITICO’s Nick Wu reports. THIS IS A BIG DEAL: Trump yesterday threatened that he won’t support any Warner Bros. deal that doesn’t include the sale of CNN to new ownership, either as part of the package or separately — his latest effort to dictate the future of one of the nation’s biggest news outlets. The network’s current leadership shouldn’t “be allowed to continue,” he said, per Bloomberg. “I will be probably involved” in reviewing the merger. This and Trump’s other pressure on the dealmaking has put DOJ antitrust head Gail Slater in a very difficult spot, potentially undercutting her review of the merger before she even begins, NYT’s David McCabe reports. THE PURGE: The Trump administration’s bid to fire 17 CIA employees for working in diversity, equity and inclusion roles appears likely to fail at a federal appeals court due to what a judge called a poorly drafted declaration from CIA Director John Ratcliffe, POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein writes in. Ratcliffe submitted a formal statement describing the firings as part of the administration’s broader mass layoffs, but during arguments yesterday in Richmond, Virginia, 4th Circuit Judge Stephanie Thacker said the administration is now seeking to “rewrite history” by claiming other grounds for the firings. “You’d think he could be consistent,” said Thacker, a Barack Obama appointee. “I’m uncomfortable with the director talking out of both sides of his mouth.” Another judge, Biden appointee Nicole Berner, appeared likely to join Thacker in siding with the CIA employees, who have been sidelined on administrative leave while collecting their paychecks for nearly a year. A spokesperson for the CIA did not respond to a request for comment. FED UP: As expected, the Fed trimmed interest rates a quarter point lower yesterday, per POLITICO’s Victoria Guida. But it was not without tension. Three of the 12 voters dissented — one wanting to cut more, two wanting to stop — as policymakers fracture and Chair Jerome Powell indicated rate cuts will be harder to come by in 2026. The divides actually run deeper: A number of regional Fed leaders, who didn’t vote, opposed the cut, Bloomberg’s Catarina Saraiva reports. Trump continued to bash the Fed, saying rates should be “much lower,” per Bloomberg.
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Explore Phil's story. | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | WOO HAH!! GOT YOU ALL IN CHECK — Busta Rhymes will be the star turn at the Christmas party hosted by Donald Trump Jr.’s exclusive Executive Branch club tonight, with plenty of Cabinet members and business execs expected at the invite-only MAGA hotspot located in Georgetown (read the invite here). And if you can’t afford the membership fees, then at least enjoy some Daily Mail goss on what allegedly goes on behind the club’s doors. OUT AND ABOUT — The Christian Employers Alliance held its “Defender of Biblical Business” awards reception Tuesday night at Butterworth’s — based on a new scorecard system co-developed with the Institute for Legislative Analysis. SPOTTED: Reps. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.), Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), Jim Baird (R-Ind.), Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.), Brian Babin (R-Texas), Roger Williams (R-Texas), Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.), Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), Adrian Smith (R-Neb.), Warren Davidson (R-Ohio), Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), William Timmons (R-S.C.), Joe Wilson (R-S.C.), Mike Ezell (R-Miss.), Gary Palmer (R-Ala.), Jack Bergman (R-Mich.), Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.), Tom McClintock (R-Calif.), John McGuire (R-Va.), Barry Moore (R-Ala.), Russ Fulcher (R-Idaho), John Carter (R-Texas) and Eric Burlison (R-Mo.), Margaret Iuculano, Teah Corley, Jeremy Reidy, Dave Dias, Rudy Olivo, Bob Ballinger, Ryan McGowan, Fred McGrath, Will Paul and Bryan Axler. — SPOTTED at last night’s Semafor “Architects of the New Economy” event at Gallup: Sens. Mark Warner (D-Va.) and Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), Ben Smith, Elana Schor, Eleanor Mueller, Shelby Talcott, Rachel Keidan, John Hudson, Rebecca Karabus, Elie Jacobs, Carlos Torres, Michael Schmidt, Emilio Vega-Centeno and Alicia Diaz. — Senate Foreign Relations ranking member Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) hosted a reception at the Capitol yesterday afternoon with female ambassadors and senators. SPOTTED: Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) and Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), Austrian Ambassador Petra Schneebauer, Beninese Ambassador Agniola Ahouanmenou, Canadian Ambassador Kirsten Hillman, Dominican Ambassador María Isabel Castillo Báez, Finnish Ambassador Leena-Kaisa Mikkola, Georgian Ambassador Tamar Taliashvili, Greek Ambassador Ekaterini Nassika, Icelandic Ambassador Svanhildur Hólm Valsdóttir, Irish Ambassador Geraldine Byrne Nason, Jordanian Ambassador Dina Kawar, Lebanese Ambassador Nada Hamadeh, Rwandan Ambassador Mathilde Mukantabana, South Korean Ambassador Kang Kyung-wha, Spanish Ambassador Ángeles Moreno Bau and Tanzanian Ambassador Elsie Sia Kanza. — Tina May moderated a panel with former White House chiefs of staff Andy Card and Denis McDonough for the launch of a new networking organization, “Chief to Chief,” for Fortune 250 chiefs of staff. SPOTTED at the event, hosted at Cornerstone Government Affairs by Stacy Rich, Andy Flick and Kirsten West: Andy Harris, Katharine Emerson, Jeff Moore, Marissa Secreto and Brittany Jedrzejewski. MEDIA MOVES — Matt Gutman is joining CBS News as chief correspondent. He previously worked at ABC. … The New Yorker is adding Ruby Cramer and Jason Zengerle as staff writers covering politics and Jon Allsop as a contributing writer. Cramer previously worked at WaPo and is a POLITICO and BuzzFeed alum. Zengerle previously worked at the NYT Magazine. Allsop previously worked at the Columbia Journalism Review. … Adrian Carrasquillo is joining The Bulwark full time as national immigration correspondent. He previously has written their Huddled Masses newsletter, and is a Newsweek and BuzzFeed alum. TRANSITIONS — Orice Williams Brown will be the next acting head of the Government Accountability Office, POLITICO’s Jennifer Scholtes reports. She has been the agency’s COO, and will step in to replace Gene Dodaro as interim comptroller general. … Jason Sloan is now a partner at Pryor Cashman. He previously worked at the U.S. Copyright Office. … … Jay Greene is now director of research at Do No Harm. He previously worked at the Heritage Foundation. … Brad Whitford is joining The Herald Group as chief creative officer. He previously worked at DDC Public Affairs and is a Glover Park Group alum. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Gabe Amo (D-R.I.) … Kara Swisher … PBS’ Margaret Hoover … SiriusXM’s Julie Mason … John Kerry … WaPo’s Marianne LeVine, Elizabeth Dwoskin and Annabelle Timsit … Perry Rosen … Molly Abboud … Helen Robins … John Feehery of EFB Advocacy … Emily Buchanan … Megan Capiak … Michael Allen of Beacon Global Strategies … Elizabeth Spiers … Benjamin Tribbett … Atlantic Council’s Will Wechsler … Maya Krishna-Rogers … Josh Jaye of the Tax Foundation … Len Khodorkovsky … Haydn Welch … Impactual’s Ashley Spillane … Peter True … former Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.) … Rebecca Brocato … Phillip Escoriaza … POLITICO’s Sarah Morgan and Aaron Albright … Gideon Resnick … One Strategy Group’s Brian Reich Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misstated the anniversary of the Sandy Hook shooting. It is Sunday.
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