| | | |  | | By Ali Bianco | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Rachel Umansky-Castro Good Sunday morning. This is Ali Bianco. It’s dreadfully cold in D.C., and your author is counting the days to return to the warmth of Miami for the holidays. Get in touch. CLICKER: We’ve got a fascinating polling experiment to test your understanding of the political landscape: Using results from The POLITICO Poll, a series of hypothetical scenarios suggest that if President Donald Trump were to produce a certain suite of policy proposals, he could wield his powerful ability to shape public opinion in a way that creates bipartisanship instead of shattering it, POLITICO’s Anna Wiederkehr writes. Here’s an example:
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| To be sure: “There’s little evidence Trump would actually be interested in breaking party orthodoxy to foster bipartisanship. Republicans suddenly supporting a single-payer health care system, for example, is probably a bridge too far for even the famously policy-malleable president. But the thought experiment provides valuable insight into how Americans perceive their political reality — and the power of the messenger compared with the message. What areas might benefit Trump heading into the midterms? What would be the limits to that approach?” Try it out for yourself and see if you can guess how each proposal lands
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There’s a growing barrage of international news demanding President Donald Trump’s attention. | Jose Luis Magana/AP | COUNTDOWN TO 2026: With just a matter of days to go in 2025, this week is the last in session for the legislative set before they recess for the holidays. And in true Trump 2.0 fashion, there’s something happening in every corner of the Beltway — and beyond. As the holidays kick into high gear, here are trend lines to watch in what’s left of 2025. ON THE HILL: Few big stories have dominated Congress this fall more than the future of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies. The debate will come to a head this week as both chambers enter their last legislative sessions of the year. The deadline for ACA enrollment for January is tomorrow. With just half a month left until the Covid-era subsidies expire, when millions could see health care premiums skyrocket, the stakes are high for an eleventh-hour salve. Expect a vote this week in the House on a GOP-led health care proposal, following a series of meetings by Speaker Mike Johnson. There will also be an amendment vote that would stop the subsidies from lapsing on Dec. 31 — but despite anxiety from vulnerable incumbents on the potential fallout in the midterms, the GOP largely expects the ACA vote to fail. Coming for defense: The Senate is poised for a vote this week on the sprawling National Defense Authorization Act, the must-pass multibillion-dollar defense policy package that went through the House last week. The bill is facing some last-minute headwinds on a controversial provision regarding aviation safety. The Senate is set for a procedural vote on the bill tomorrow evening, with passage expected later in the week. Elsewhere on the Hill: Also in the Senate this week will be FCC Chair Brendan Carr, who’ll be in the hot seat for the long-awaited agency oversight hearing on Wednesday. He will no doubt be peppered with questions on his treatment of broadcasting licenses and comedian Jimmy Kimmel. Rounding out the big goals for GOP leadership this week, Johnson is eyeing a vote on Rep. Bruce Westerman’s (R-Ark.) bill accelerating domestic energy production and delivery. THE EPSTEIN CRISIS: We can’t forget about the other story that’s dominated Congress this year — the Jeffrey Epstein files. This saga is also likely coming to a point on Friday: the official deadline for the Department of Justice to turn over the full files, per the legislation muscled through by Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.). If that wasn’t enough, three judges and counting have ruled on the release of Epstein-related court records. Lawmakers this month asked AG Pam Bondi for a pulse check on the progress on releasing the files. As for what will actually be in the potential 100,000+ documents, we’ll have to wait and see. Washington is watching to see if DOJ will meet the deadline. IN THE COURTS: An appeals court ruled the Trump administration has to remove California National Guard troops from Los Angeles by tomorrow, the latest roadblock to the administration’s deployment of the military to major cities amid a broader immigration crackdown. That now makes three different cities — Los Angeles, Chicago and Portland, Oregon — where the military deployment stands in limbo. The Supreme Court could drop an emergency ruling on the National Guard deployment in Illinois at any time, which could pave the way for what happens in the rest of the country. The high court is also due to release an order list at 9:30 a.m. tomorrow.
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Explore the impact in communities like Altoona. | | | | BEYOND THE HOME FRONT: Top of mind are today and tomorrow’s meetings in Berlin between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Trump’s peace talks duo: special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. The war that Trump has repeatedly said he believed would be the easiest to solve is still raging as 2025 ends. With the talks ongoing, Ukraine will no doubt continue driving conversation in and around the White House. But that’s not all: There’s a growing barrage of international news demanding Trump’s attention. He promised “serious retaliation” yesterday following an attack in Syria that killed two U.S. service members and one American civilian. Fighting continues along the border between Thailand and Cambodia, after Trump declared on Friday that both countries would renew the terms of their fragile peace agreement. Speaking of fragile peace deals, the Israeli military killed one of Hamas’ top commanders in Gaza yesterday, another attack that Hamas has blasted as a violation of the ceasefire terms. And then there’s the continuing matter of the lethal strikes on alleged drug-carrying boats in the Caribbean. Trump warned on Friday that land strikes on alleged narco-traffickers will be “starting” soon. We may also see more seizures of oil tankers from Venezuela, just the latest moves in the administration’s pressure campaign to cripple the Nicolás Maduro regime. With the administration doubling down, this will no doubt continue to dominate the headlines. THE BIGGER PICTURE: As we close in on the end of the year, the administration is also inching toward its one-year mark. And Trump has started to see the limits of his influence on his party and a growing anxiety from voters on the cost of living. That’s something the administration will have to navigate and message through this week and beyond — especially as costs remain front and center for many during this holiday season. Look no further than VP JD Vance’s dispatch to the Keystone State this week — where he’s expected to speak on affordability and the economy in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley on Tuesday, just days after Trump himself made a trip out to the crucial swing state. Every day gone in 2025 gets us closer to the midterms — where voter reactions to the second Trump era will be on full display. SUNDAY BEST … — Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) on the mass shooting at Brown University and today’s anniversary of the Sandy Hook shooting, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “Right now, we don’t have the leadership in Washington to do anything, anything to respond to the shooting this weekend. … [Trump] has been engaged in a pretty deliberate campaign to try to make violence more likely in this country. And I think you’re, unfortunately, going to see the results of that on the streets of America. … He’s knowingly restoring gun rights to dangerous people. He is cutting off grants that have bipartisan support to try to interrupt violence in our cities or to try to get necessary mental health resources to families and children in need.” — Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado on Trump’s seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker and broader pressure campaign, on CBS’ “Face the Nation”: “I absolutely support President Trump’s strategy, and we, the Venezuelan people, are very grateful to him and to his administration, because I believe he is a champion of freedom in this hemisphere. … I had dedicated this [Nobel Peace Prize] to him because I think that he finally has put Venezuela in where it should be, in terms of a priority for the United States national security.” — Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) on the tanker seizure, on ABC’s “This Week”: “If we can interdict the tanker, why can’t we interdict the boats carrying drugs as well? I’ve said repeatedly the Maduro regime has been brutal to the Venezuelan people. … But that still begs the question … What is President Trump’s theory of the case? Is it regime change? We’ve got a massive force, almost unprecedented in the region, and I think the president needs to come to Congress and the American people. … I do not know what this president’s goal vis-a-vis Venezuela is.” — Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) on his health care proposal, on “Face the Nation”: “The only thing the Democrats would accept was something that would decrease the premiums. But if a family has a $6,000 out-of-pocket before they get into the strength of the insurance plan, then, frankly, the policy is catastrophic. It brings profit to the insurance company, but not benefit to the patient. … There has to be a meeting of the minds between Democrats and Republicans. … I would be willing to do a short-term extension of the premium tax credits for those people with higher premiums, if they will concede that we’ve got to do something for the $6,000 out-of-pocket. I think there’s a deal to be had here. We need to push for that deal.”
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| | | | TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.
9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR 1. GUN VIOLENCE TRAGEDIES: The mass shooting at Brown yesterday killed two students and left several more hospitalized, prompting a major law enforcement manhunt for the perpetrator, The Brown Daily Herald reports. As of this morning, Providence officials said they had a person of interest in custody, a man in his 30s. The attack in the Barus and Holley engineering building stunned and terrified the campus, where students and other community members had to shelter in place for hours. Economics professor Rachel Friedberg told Ocean State Media’s Ben Berke that it took place in a TA-led review session for the final exam of her intro economics course. The TA, Joseph Oduro, told NYT’s Katherine Rosman and colleagues that the gunman entered the lecture hall screaming something unclear and started shooting students right when the session was wrapping up and as Oduro was expressing his gratitude to the students. Across the world: A horrific scene unfolded on Sydney’s iconic Bondi Beach, where a mass shooting killed at least 11 people, plus one shooter, in what authorities called an act of antisemitic terrorism, The Sydney Morning Herald reports. The attack targeted a Chabad-hosted event for the start of Hanukkah, which begins tonight. Police said they’d also found multiple improvised explosive devices nearby. Unlike in the U.S., mass shootings are very rare in Australia, but the country has seen growing antisemitic violence recently. “An attack on Jewish Australians is an attack on every Australian,” PM Anthony Albanese said. 2. SURVEY SAYS: The latest NBC poll finds Trump’s approval rating nudging down to 42 percent, Stephanie Perry and Marc Trussler report. Inflation, the economy and the cost of living remain a top concern for Americans and a top drag on Trump’s numbers, while people also dislike his handling of the Epstein files. Notably, some of the biggest declines in his strong support relative to the spring come from Republicans and MAGA adherents (though those drops are still fairly incremental). 3. BIG INVESTIGATION: “The S.E.C. Was Tough on Crypto. It Pulled Back After Trump Returned to Office,” by NYT’s Ben Protess and colleagues: “It is unheard-of for the agency to retreat from a swath of lawsuits against a single industry. And yet, The Times found that the S.E.C. had eased up on more than 60 percent of the crypto cases that were ongoing when Mr. Trump returned to the White House, moving to pause litigation, lessen penalties or outright dismiss the cases. … S.E.C. dismissals came at a far higher rate for crypto firms than other cases. … The S.E.C., the top federal regulator that polices wrongdoing in the financial markets, is no longer actively pursuing a single case against a firm with known Trump ties.” The response: “In a statement, the S.E.C. said that political favoritism ‘had nothing to do with’ how it handled crypto enforcement.” And the firms have denied any wrongdoing.
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| | | | 4. FOR YOUR RADAR: “DOJ weighs novel federal hate crime case against Charlie Kirk's alleged killer,” by NBC’s Ryan Reilly and Allan Smith: “[T]he effort to bring federal charges in the [Charlie] Kirk case has been met with resistance by some career prosecutors who have argued that the crime doesn’t appear to fall under any federal statutes … Prosecuting it as an anti-Christian hate crime would be highly unusual because the federal case would likely turn on equating anti-trans views with Christianity.” 5. SILICON VALLEY ASCENDANT: Behind Trump’s new executive order clamping down on state-level AI regulation was a successful campaign by tech leaders to sway Trump, WaPo’s Cat Zakrzewski and colleagues report. It was another victory for the anti-regulation, pro-Silicon Valley business voices in his administration, led by David Sacks and Sriram Krishnan, over the populists who warn about the hazards of artificial intelligence. Nonetheless, “the fight has given new signals of populist opposition to technology that holds the promise of eliminating lots of jobs,” WSJ’s Tim Higgins writes, as voices from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to Steve Bannon to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) sent out warnings about AI. 6. THE ART OF THE DEAL: “Lukashenko frees Nobel winner Bialiatski and key Belarus opposition figures in deal with US,” by Reuters’ Andrius Sytas and colleagues: “Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko freed 123 prisoners on Saturday including Nobel Peace Prize winner Ales Bialiatski and leading opposition figure Maria Kalesnikava in a deal brokered by an envoy for U.S. President Donald Trump. In return, the U.S. agreed to lift sanctions on Belarusian potash. … Trump's envoy John Coale told Reuters that around 1,000 remaining political prisoners in Belarus could be released, hopefully in one big group, in the coming months.” 7. TRADING PLACES: A new analysis from POLITICO’s Paroma Soni shows that roughly half of U.S. imports are exempt from Trump’s major regime of emergency tariffs, thanks to carveouts, trade deals or other sector-specific tariffs. Meanwhile, as those same “reciprocal” levies face a major legal test at the Supreme Court, Customs and Border Protection is rushing to move tariff revenue into Treasury’s coffers quickly, POLITICO’s Ari Hawkins and Doug Palmer report. That could hamper U.S. companies’ ability to get refunds on the tariffs they’ve paid if the justices strike down Trump’s protectionism, presaging more complicated legal fights to recoup the money. Continental divide: As the U.S., Mexico and Canada enter a review of their joint trade agreement next year, America’s southern and northern neighbors are growing more hopeful that Trump won’t pull out of it entirely — because he wouldn’t want to risk driving prices higher ahead of the midterms, POLITICO’s Megan Messerly reports. 8. ON THAT THEME: “Trump Isn’t Certain His Economic Policies Will Translate to Midterm Wins,” by WSJ’s Meridith McGraw: “During an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Friday in the Oval Office, the president touted his efforts to secure multibillion-dollar investments in the U.S., arguing that the money will help transform the American economy. But he acknowledged that he couldn’t predict if that would translate into political gains for Republicans next fall. Asked whether Republicans would lose the House in November, Trump said, ‘I can’t tell you. I don’t know when all of this money is going to kick in.’” 9. SHRINKING THE GOVERNMENT: The VA is planning another major round of cuts, this time to some 35,000 positions in health care that are largely not staffed at the moment, WaPo’s Meryl Kornfield and colleagues scooped. On top of 30,000 civil servants who already left this year, that would make the massive department 10 percent smaller than it was a year ago. Secretary Doug Collins will likely announce this week that the VA will also pare back staff at its 18 regional offices. Department officials argue that many of the positions being cut are unnecessary, given that they’re unfilled. But some “[e]mployees warn that the contraction will add pressure to an already stretched system, contributing to longer wait times for care,” per the Post.
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Explore the impact in communities like Altoona. | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | IN MEMORIAM — “Arthur L. Carter, 93, Dies; Investment Banker Founded a Cheeky Newspaper,” by NYT’s Sam Roberts: “After making a fortune on Wall Street, he bought The Nation magazine and founded The New York Observer.” OUT AND ABOUT — Judee Ann Williams, Kimball Stroud, Amelia Makin, Christine Lancman and Emma Mears hosted a “Festive Friends and Favorite Things” brunch at Ned’s Club yesterday. SPOTTED: Evan Ryan, Olivia Igbokwe-Curry, Traci Otey Blunt, Alyse Nelson, Aba Kwawu, Nicole Elkon, Stacy Kerr, Jade Floyd, Chinyere Hubbard, Justine Lore, Kendall Tamny, Laura Modi, Maureen Davenport, Kristin Harrison, Susan Tynan, Azali Kassum, Liz Landers, Sharon Yang, Madeline Grayson, Emily Calandrelli, Tanya Stockdale-Morineau and April Boyd. TRANSITION — Clare Considine is now director of polling at EyesOver. She previously worked for Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.). HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Former FBI Director James Comey … John Ullyot … Matt Duss of the Center for International Policy … Chuck Rocha … Kirsten Madison of BGR Group … Lindy Li … International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers’ Danielle Eckert … Jake Schneider … Stephanie Allen of the SEC … Rob Placek … Cindy Chetti of the National Multifamily Housing Council … Raffi Williams … Henry R. Muñoz … CNN’s Abigail Crutchfield … Aubrey Quinn … Sloane Speakman … Elizabeth Wenk of Burness … Suzanne Wrasse … American Council of Engineering Companies’ Allison Schneider … Pierce Wiegard … Ted Frank … Kyra Jennings … Tom Egan … BrabenderCox’s Matt Beynon … Kimberly Hunt … Amanda Kane Rapp … David Cuzzi of Prospect Hill Strategies … Maddy McDaniel … R. Emmett Tyrrell Jr. … Avik Roy … Beth Belton … POLITICO’s Ilona Chebotareva … Kirsten Powers Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Garrett Ross. Correction: Friday’s Playbook misspelled Nicholas Nehamas’ name.
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