| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco and Makayla Gray On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Dasha unpack the political fallout from Saturday’s deadly shooting in Minnesota.
| 
| Good Monday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, still shoveling ice off the sidewalk 24 hours later. But who cares? The kids are having a blast. Thanks to all who emailed in with snow advice. Get in touch. D.C. WEATHER LATEST: The storm is officially over, per the Capital Weather Gang. Around one million Americans are currently without power. Here in D.C. we got about five inches of snow, plus three more inches of sleet. Sunshine will soon be upon us — just don’t expect a thaw any time soon. Federal government offices in D.C. are closed. Schools in D.C. are closed. The Senate has canceled today’s votes. But the Trump show must go on! And so Karoline Leavitt will hold a White House press briefing at 1 p.m. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — NEW SOSNIK MEMO: “A clear majority of the country disapprove of the job that Donald Trump is doing as president, as reflected in the four January polls that have been released to coincide with the end of his first year in office,” the legendary Clinton-era strategist Doug Sosnik writes in a new memo shared with Playbook. “These polls are quite consistent in their findings and cannot be dismissed as ‘fake,’” Sosnik adds, pushing back on the president’s frequent assertion. Things can only get … worse? A president’s polling only rarely improves after their first year, Sosnik notes, and there’s nothing in these polls to suggest Trump will buck that trend. Most Americans do not believe Trump is aligned with their priorities, Sosnik writes. Views of the U.S. economy are generally bleak — and most voters now say Trump is responsible, rather than his predecessor Joe Biden. Consumer confidence is “at a near-historic low.” Trump is even underwater on his favorite policy areas — tariffs and immigration. And yet: Even as 2024 supporters drain away from Trump, Sosnik notes, Dems face a real battle in the midterms — especially in the race for the Senate. “Democrats have hemorrhaged support from working class voters, who constitute 60 percent of the electorate,” he writes. “As a result, there are wide swaths of the country where Democrats simply cannot compete, greatly reducing their opportunities even if there is a ‘blue wave’ election.” Read the full memo … See the deck The pushback: A Republican source familiar with the GOP’s midterms strategy pushed back on the assessment of Trump's approval ratings, which they insisted are comparable to previous presidents like Barack Obama or George H.W. Bush. “Considering how bad everyone’s telling me I should feel, I don’t buy it,” they told Playbook’s Ali Bianco. Another GOP source stressed the Democrats’ unpopularity within their own party, pointing to recent numbers suggesting Dems aren’t faring much better than Trump. They said they expect the economy to keep improving in the first half of this year, further boosting GOP chances, and suggested potentially messy Dem primaries in Senate targets like Maine and Michigan could also have an effect. “Republicans holding swing seats gives us an advantage of incumbency and fundraising,” the source said. Only nine months to go! In today’s Playbook … — Two court showdowns in Minneapolis loom … POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney has the details. — Why Republicans are getting worried about immigration policy. — And how’s Trump’s health really? One reporter set out to find an answer.
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | STATUS UPDATE: We’re 48 hours on from the deadly shooting of Alex Pretti in Minnesota. The shocking incident has dominated the political conversation since Saturday, and the furor shows no sign of subsiding today. Liberals are outraged, conservatives uneasy — and tensions in Minneapolis continue to rise. For now, the White House has expressed no desire to change tack. Could another branch of government force their hand? We’ll get to Congress shortly. Today your attention should be on the courts, where twin hearings in the Twin Cities could dramatically reshape how this narrative is playing out. The judiciary — along with the bond markets — has offered the only real block on the most radical actions of Trump 2.0 thus far. An expert writes: “Minnesota remains the center of the universe today, with two enormously significant hearings back to back before federal judges based in the Twin Cities,” POLITICO’s legal ace Kyle Cheney writes in to Playbook. “In one, Judge Katherine Menendez will consider the state’s urgent lawsuit to pull the plug on ICE’s ‘Operation Metro Surge’ altogether — seeking a ruling that the federal government has trampled on state sovereignty in unconstitutional ways. Minnesota officials filed the lawsuit around the time of Renee Good’s death, but they ramped up the urgency after Alex Pretti was shot and killed, pleading with Menendez, a Biden appointee, to rule by the end of the day. “In the other, Judge Eric Tostrud will weigh Minnesota law enforcement’s lawsuit requiring the Trump administration to preserve evidence stemming from the Pretti shooting. Tostrud quickly granted a restraining order in the matter on Saturday, but Monday afternoon will be the first hearing on the matter and the first chance for the Trump administration to explain how it has handled evidence from the crime scene.”
| | | | A message from AHIP: Medicare Advantage saves seniors $3,400 a year. Medicare Advantage provides better health care at lower overall costs than fee-for-service Medicare, along with important extra benefits and a cap on expenses. More than 35 million seniors and people with disabilities choose Medicare Advantage. They are counting on policymakers to keep the bipartisan commitment to protect and strengthen it. Learn more. | | | | Kyle goes on: “I noted over the weekend that judges like Menendez and Tostrud aren’t encountering these issues in a vacuum. Minnesota’s entire federal bench has been inundated for two months with emergency lawsuits filed by immigrants detained by ICE. And in almost every case, judges have ruled the administration’s detention policies were illegal — and caused conscience-shocking results for law-abiding families, refugees and their U.S. citizen children. “The judges’ frustration is a reminder that federal jurists live in the communities they preside over, and that it may inform their jurisprudence. Monday will be a big test of that premise, with consequences for the entire country.” Kyle’s final point is an important one: Whatever happens in Minnesota is not the end of this story. The full force of the funding boost for ICE and other border operations contained in last summer’s One Big Beautiful Bill is only now properly filtering through to the front line. There are three more years of Trump 2.0 to go — and likely many more immigration surges to come. Speaking of funding: There are signs that Saturday’s killing has changed the mood in Congress, too — even with the House out all week and with senators struggling to make it back to D.C. due to the weather. On the Democratic side, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has said Democrats will not support the DHS funding package that must be passed — along with five other spending bills — by the end of this week to avoid a partial government shutdown. He wants DHS funding carved off and renegotiated, with new legal constraints placed on ICE as part of the deal. Good luck with that: GOP leadership says it will press ahead as planned. Given the levels of anger at DHS coming from the Democrat side, it’s now quite possible that a partial shutdown is where we’re headed. The latest from POLITICO’s Inside Congress How effective that will be is questionable. ICE already has massive funding secured through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and so it’s other agencies like FEMA that may suffer — not the greatest look for the Dems amid a weather emergency. And of course the last government shutdown — the longest in history — had precisely zero impact upon government policy, successful though it was in elevating health care costs as an issue.
| | | | A message from AHIP:  
| | | | But it’s not just Dems pushing for some sort of reaction: Plenty of Republicans are deeply uncomfortable about what happened on Saturday, and not just the awful incident itself but the administration’s immediate reaction. Strikingly, the anger we’ve grown accustomed to from regular Trump critics like Sens. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) was joined by murmurings from others about the need to change of course. New names for the mix: Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) — who has until now largely avoided criticizing the president — called for a joint investigation into the shooting. Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.) demanded “a prioritized, transparent investigation.” Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) — hardly a centrist liberal — advised the president to pull ICE out of the highly inflamed situation in Minnesota. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) called for congressional hearings. And there were more. Off the record, plenty more Republicans were feeling queasy, especially with polls showing declining public confidence both in ICE and in Trump’s broader approach to immigration. “Many of us wonder if the administration has any clue as to how much this will hurt us legislatively and electorally this year,” one House Republican tells POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill. And Dasha has more: “For weeks, I was hearing from Republican lawmakers, Republican operatives, that hey — if Democrats want to do this whole anti-ICE thing, go for it. Historically immigration has been a Republican issue and we would love to see Democrats try,” Dasha said on today’s Playbook Podcast. ”I don't hear that same argument in this moment. What I'm hearing from Republicans is that they are very frustrated that this administration has taken an issue … that was a total goldmine for Republicans politically, and are losing the plot on it.” For Fox sake: There’s concern too from officials inside the administration itself — in particular with the rush by senior officials like DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and White House policy chief Stephen Miller to pin all the blame on the deceased. Check out this from Bill Melugin of Fox News: “I’ve talked to more than half a dozen federal sources involved immigration enforcement, including several in senior positions, who all tell me they have grown increasingly uneasy & frustrated w/ some of the claims & narratives DHS pushed in the aftermath of the shooting.” Sample quotes: Some of these sources have described DHS’ response to the shooting as “a case study on how not to do crisis PR.” One said they are so “fed up” that they wish they could retire. Another said “DHS is making the situation worse,” and another added that “DHS is wrong” and “we are losing this war, we are losing the base and the narrative.” So could the White House change course? “President Trump fielded dozens of calls over the weekend from administration officials and senators,” WSJ’s Xavier Martinez reports, “with some worrying that public sentiment has turned against the administration's immigration-enforcement actions. Some of the president’s aides have come to see the increasingly volatile situation in Minneapolis as a political liability and believe the White House should be looking for an off-ramp, according to administration officials. However, others in the administration believe that ending the current efforts in Minneapolis would be a capitulation to the left.” While all of this is going on: We are (once again) very much not talking about affordability. Trump is due in Iowa tomorrow for a campaign speech. Can he possibly change the conversation to the price of gasoline? FURTHER READING: “Watching America Unravel in Minneapolis,” by NYT’s Charles Homan … “The Battle for Minneapolis,” by The New Yorker's Emily Witt … “The American City That Found Itself at War With the U.S. Government,” by WSJ’s Joshua Chaffin and Michelle Hackman
| | | | New from POLITICO Introducing POLITICO Forecast: A forward-looking global briefing on the forces reshaping politics, policy and power worldwide. Drawing on POLITICO’s global reporting, Forecast connects developments across regions and sectors — including insight from major global moments and convenings, from Davos and beyond — to help readers anticipate what comes next.
➡️ Sign up for POLITICO Forecast. | | | | | BEST OF THE REST MUST READ: Should we be concerned about Trump’s health? Judging by Bluesky — or indeed Playbook’s daily inbox — plenty of Democrats have questions about the president’s hand bruises, his mysterious MRI, his stamina in long meetings and his occasional incoherence. This morning, N.Y. Mag’s Ben Terris has what he calls a “good-faith attempt to ascertain the truth,” replete with sit-down interviews with Trump and his doctors from Walter Reed. “If there was a conspiracy of silence protecting Joe Biden when questions arose about his mental and physical decline,” Terris writes, “there’s a cacophony around Trump”: Members of the administration trip over themselves to laud Trump’s “superhuman” abilities (that’s Stephen Miller’s word). The piece is full of great lines. Ultimately, Terris emerges thinking Trump “might be pretty healthy for an almost-octogenarian, if not quite the superhuman” — but also well aware of the pressure on Trump’s doctors to toe the line. FED UP OF WAITING? Wall Street is braced for Trump’s selection of the next Fed chair, which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said could be announced as soon as this week. Dark horse Rick Rieder has surged to become the betting favorite, though Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller and Kevin Hassett — whom Trump indicated would likely stay at the White House — all remain possibilities. (Just don’t look too far down the list at Polymarket: You’ll come across Janet Yellen and Barron Trump as shots so long they may as well not exist.) BEIJING STUNNER: WSJ’s Lingling Wei and Chun Han Wong scooped astonishing new claims about Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ouster of Zhang Youxia, the country’s top military general. Zhang is “accused of leaking information about the country’s nuclear-weapons program to the U.S.,” as well as corruption.
| | | | A message from AHIP:  
| | | | THE AFFORDABILITY SQUEEZE: “GOP pitches student loan repayment amid affordability struggles,” by POLITICO’s Mackenzie Wilkes: “Republicans say their new repayment policies focus on the borrowers who need the most help. … But the GOP’s messaging to resume payments is on a collision course with economic reality: Nearly 12 million borrowers are behind on their loans.” IMMIGRATION FILES: More than 8,400 immigrants with humanitarian parole will remain in the U.S. for now after a federal judge blocked DHS from terminating their legal status, per Reuters. The people from Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti and Honduras arrived through reunification programs to join family members who are citizens or green card holders. PORKING OUT: “Fiscal hawks set out to kill earmarks. They are very much alive,” by POLITICO’s Jennifer Scholtes and colleagues: “Fiscal conservatives in Congress threatened for months to block government funding if GOP leaders didn’t shun earmarks. They succeeded in scrapping just one; the rest, almost $16 billion worth, are slated in the package the Senate needs to clear by Friday to avoid a shutdown. … Republicans run Washington once again, and they’re overwhelmingly embracing the renaissance.”
| | | | POLITICO Pro A new year brings new policy challenges—and deeper questions. POLITICO Pro delivers authoritative reporting, expert analysis, and powerful tools to help professionals understand and anticipate the business of government, in Washington and beyond.
➡️ Learn More about POLITICO Pro | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | STRICTLY BALLROOM — President Donald Trump declared on Truth Social that “IT IS TOO LATE” for lawsuits to stop the construction of his new White House ballroom. As WaPo’s Dan Diamond and Jonathan Edwards note, that stands in contrast to Justice Department officials’ comments in court that construction won’t start until after two panel reviews and that changes can still be made. But Trump wrote that stopping the project now “would be devastating to the White House, our Country, and all concerned.” DEMOCRACY DIES IN DARKNESS — WaPo’s foreign correspondents have been told their jobs are at risk as potentially massive layoffs loom at the newspaper, per NYT’s Ben Mullin. They wrote a letter urging owner Jeff Bezos to save the paper’s storied international coverage or else “lead us first to irrelevance and later extinction.” Status’ Natalie Korach reports that “as many as 300 Post employees across the broader company could be impacted by the February trim-down.” OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a launch party for Jim O’Connell’s new book, “Incurable Gifts: My Weepy, Wobbly, Wonderful Life with Parkinson’s” ($12.99), at the National Press Club on Friday: Connie Cass, Eileen Drage O’Reilly, Chuck McCutcheon, Jonathan Salant, Cary O’Reilly, John Hughes, Dan Whitten, John Cranford, Laura Litvan, Kristin Jensen Cohen, Mark Willen, Nick Johnston, Bill McQuillen, Josh Eastright and Jason Arvelo. TRANSITIONS — Tom Moyer is now a partner in Bracewell’s government enforcement and investigations practice. He most recently worked at Akin Gump. … Roderick Todd is joining the U.S. Chamber of Commerce as producer and booker. He most recently worked at Axios. … Maca Casado is now comms director for Miami Mayor Eileen Higgins. She previously worked at Operativo and is a Harris campaign alum. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: WSJ’s Olivia Beavers … former Speaker Kevin McCarthy … The Atlantic’s Tim Alberta … former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra … Jim Papa of Global Strategy Group … Axios’ Justin Green … Kayla Gowdy of The Washington Times … Mala Krishnamoorti Parker of the International Foodservice Distributors Association … Cheri Jacobus … Layla Brooks … Home Depot’s Brett Layson … Jen Hing … Lindsay Hayes … Margie Omero … former Rep. Albio Sires (D-N.J.) … Christian Deschauer … former Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton … Max Castroparedes … Mason Zeagler of the Michael J. Fox Foundation … Michelle Shevin-Coetzee … Sheila Angelo … Rob Foreman … NYT’s Alexis Coe … POLITICO’s Brian Cormier … PhRMA’s Carolyn Ha … FinRegLab’s Karla Renschler … Matt Miller Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Garrett Ross.
| | | | A message from AHIP: On a level playing field, Medicare Advantage outperforms fee-for-service Medicare.
New analysis shows that fee-for-service Medicare would cost nearly 10% more if it provided the same eligibility criteria, coverage, and out-of-pocket protections required in Medicare Advantage. Apples-to-apples, Medicare Advantage manages care more efficiently, keeps costs lower, and delivers better health outcomes for seniors. More than 35 million seniors and people with disabilities choose Medicare Advantage. They are counting on policymakers to keep the bipartisan commitment to protect and strengthen it.
Read the full analysis. | | | | | | | | Follow us on X | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Canada Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | |
No comments:
Post a Comment