Current Affairs Of Pakistan & World: Is a shutdown deal in sight?

Is a shutdown deal in sight?

Jan 29, 2026

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With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray

On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and POLITICO Congress reporter Mia McCarthy discuss the politics of government shutdowns.

Good Thursday morning. This is Jack Blanchard. Get in touch.

SIGH OF RELIEF: A second snow storm looks increasingly unlikely to hit D.C. this weekend, per Capital Weather Gang. Federal government offices are open again, and D.C. schools are (finally) back today, albeit on a delayed start. But complaints about unplowed roads and sidewalks continue to dominate every conversation in town.

START YOUR DAY WITH THIS: “Donald Trump promised to make the US the world’s crypto capital. His businesses are seizing on it.” POLITICO’s Declan Harty takes a deep dive into the murky crypto empire that has boosted Trump’s assets by a cool $1 billion.

YMMV: Critics see a conflict of interest on a previously unimaginable scale. Democrats see an opportunity for investigation if they win back control of Congress. But the White House dismisses all such talk as media fabrication … and Trump himself simply shrugs it all off. “I found out that nobody cared. I’m allowed to,” the president said earlier this month, when asked why he is allowing his family to strike such deals in his second term.

In today’s Playbook …

— Late-night immigration drama as Trump moves to cut a shutdown deal with the Dems.

— The president hosts his Cabinet today … and all eyes will be on under-fire Kristi Noem.

— And the “Melania” movie premieres tonight. Find out who scored an invite.

DRIVING THE DAY

BREAKING OVERNIGHT — AN ELEVENTH-HOUR DEAL? News emerged last night that the White House is considering a short-term deal to avert a government shutdown while negotiations continue with Democrats over reforms to ICE — just the latest sign of Donald Trump’s stunning reverse-gear on immigration.

Welp: CNN and NYT both reported overnight that the White House is considering agreeing to the carving-off of DHS funding from a larger package of government funding measures that must be passed by tomorrow night. “It appears that the White House and the Senate are making good progress to avoid a shutdown,” top appropriator Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) told NYT.

If it turns out to be true, this would be a decent win for Democrats, who have spent all week demanding DHS funding be pulled out of the larger government funding package in the wake of Saturday’s fatal shooting of Alex Pretti in Minnesota. Senate Dems yesterday set out a list of reforms to ICE they want to see as the price of their support for DHS funding.

An eleventh-hour deal had not looked likely. Hill Republicans have been insisting the full government funding package — including DHS — would be put forward for a single vote. (“There's no scenario in which we do not vote all this to go forward,” Ohio GOP Sen. Bernie Moreno told reporters yesterday.) That vote is currently scheduled for 11:30 a.m. this morning and looks doomed to fail, given Dem opposition — leaving Washington braced for a significant portion of the government to shut down from Saturday morning.

But the White House is now directly involved, and apparently keen to avert a second shutdown. Sources familiar told Playbook overnight that key sticking points remain, and nothing has been agreed. The White House has yet to comment. And our Inside Congress colleagues note that even if an agreement to separate the DHS bill is reached, “hard-liners in the House are threatening to throw up hurdles.” But things are clearly moving fast.

First in Playbook — Why Dems wouldn’t back down: New polling from the Chuck Schumer-aligned Senate Majority PAC is giving Democrats more ammo to hold the line, Playbook’s Ali Bianco reports. The polling memo, shared exclusively with Playbook, is the latest to show voters souring on the Trump administration’s immigration agenda. The margins are particularly notable with moderate voters (63 percent disapproval) and Latino voters (66 percent disapproval), the group told Playbook.

Dems emboldened: Democrats have been pitching their ICE reform package — which includes things like ending roving patrols, banning agents from wearing masks and increasing ICE accountability — as common sense changes with widespread public support. “We're deliberately pushing for reforms that are possible and reforms that are popular,” Sen. Chris Murphy told reporters yesterday. And he has a point. The 1,209 likely voters surveyed showed strong favorability for Democrats’ demands — ranging from 78 percent favorability for ICE body cameras to 65 percent for court-issued warrants before arrests.

But the most striking finding was that 50 percent of voters supported (vs. only 37 percent opposed) these reforms even if it meant a partial shutdown of the government. More than half — 54 percent — said they’d blame Trump and the GOP if there was a shutdown with no ICE reforms. And this survey was undertaken last week, before the killing of Pretti. The memo will be circulating to Democratic lawmakers, donors and campaigns today. See the memo

Reminder: The White House also does a lot of polling, and will be well aware of these shifts in public sentiment. If a deal is done today, this will be why. Playbook’s Adam Wren takes a closer look here at the collapse in public support for Trump’s approach to immigration.

A message from AHIP:

35 Million Seniors Could See Reduced Benefits and Higher Costs. Health plans welcome reforms to strengthen Medicare Advantage. However, a proposal for flat program funding at a time of sharply rising medical costs and high utilization of care will directly impact seniors' coverage. If finalized, this proposal could result in benefit reductions and higher costs for 35 million seniors and people with disabilities when they renew their Medicare Advantage coverage in October 2026. Learn more.

While we’re waiting for the white smoke in Washington, all eyes will be on Minneapolis this morning, where border czar Tom Homan gives his first news conference since taking control of the chaotic ICE operation in Minnesota. The timing is no coincidence. Homan has been tasked by the White House with cooling temperatures — not just on the streets of Minneapolis, but in the halls of Congress too, my POLITICO colleagues Alex Gangitano and Jordain Carney reported last night.

Inside the Oval: White House officials hope Homan “can mollify Democrats’ concerns over the administration’s aggressive enforcement actions enough to keep the government funded,” Alex and Jordain write. “But it’s a high wire act.” One official tells them: “A lot of it is determinative of what Homan comes back with … in terms of reforms.”

What to expect: Homan is due up at 8 a.m., per a White House media statement last night. (Note this did not come via Kristi Noem’s DHS.) Homan may well offer some give and take today — setting out specific measures to calm tensions in the Twin Cities, in return for help from Minnesota’s Democratic leaders on key issues like identifying unauthorized immigrants in local jails.

Miller Lite: Indeed, it sounds like Homan’s reforms are already well underway. Reuters revealed last night that ICE agents have been ordered only to target immigrants with criminal charges or convictions — a major shift to the scoop’em-all-up approach endorsed by White House aide Stephen Miller and implemented by the now-sidelined Gregory Bovino. Agents have also been ordered not to engage with agitators, per Reuters.

MEANWHILE AT THE WHITE HOUSE: Expect a showy display of support from Trump today for Noem, who remains under intense pressure over her handling of the crisis. The president has called a Cabinet meeting for 11 a.m., and will presumably use the televised event to make his backing for Noem crystal clear — just as he did at last month’s Cabinet meeting, when Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was under intense pressure over the use of deadly force in the Caribbean.

Noem looks safe for now, although it’s worth remembering Trump waited several weeks until after the Signalgate furor before shuffling out Mike Waltz as national security adviser. She has not appeared in public since Saturday night’s fateful news conference where she suggested Pretti “had arrived at the scene to inflict maximum damage on individuals and to kill law enforcement” — the sort of accusation from which the White House has since backed away. You’d imagine she and Trump may prefer to discuss declining border crossings today instead.

But might this get a mention? Conservatives have been breathlessly sharing new video that emerged yesterday of Pretti at a different ICE protest earlier this month, apparently spitting at federal agents and kicking out a vehicle taillight. (The Minnesota Star Tribune confirmed with Pretti’s family spokesperson and lawyer that the person in the video is him.)

WHAT ELSE WE’RE WATCHING: Will Trump also find a way today to voice support for under-fire aide Stephen Miller, who described Pretti as “an assassin?” … And given this is a Cabinet meeting, can the president avoid another droopy-eyed bout of what Karoline Leavitt memorably describes as “active listening”? (Possibly not: Trump told N.Y. Mag recently that he finds Cabinet meetings “boring as hell” and “can’t wait to get out.”)

NOW READ THIS: “DHS raids are the stuff of Rand Paul’s nightmares. What will he do about it?” by POLITICO’s Jordain Carney and Hailey Fuchs

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WAR AND PEACE

NEXT WEEK’S CRISIS: Trump is weighing a major new military strike on Iran after discussions over limiting its nuclear capabilities made little progress, CNN’s Natasha Bertrand and colleagues report. Trump is considering both strikes on the Iranian leaders responsible for the killings of protestors, and strikes on nuclear facilities, they report — though no final decision has yet been made. You no doubt saw his Truth Social yesterday teeing up a possible attack.

Trump is right about everything: Indeed, a majority of “MAGA Republicans” are now embracing Trump’s extensive interventionism, according to a new POLITICO Poll. Trump voters are signaling they would fall in line behind his use of military force, with a 65-percent majority saying they supported military action on countries including Iran, which received the most backing in the poll, POLITICO’s Gigi Ewing and Leo Shane III report.

IT’S NOT EASY BEING GREEN: Officials from the U.S., Denmark and Greenland met yesterday to start hammering out a deal that might satiate Trump’s desire to control the island without a complete U.S. takeover, Bloomberg’s Natalia Drozdiak and Courtney McBride report. Greenland PM Jens-Frederik Nielsen said in Paris that there are “red lines” that can’t be crossed, per POLITICO’s Clea Caulcutt.

THE TRUMP EFFECT: Just as Trump’s broadsides against Canada early last year proved to be the wind beneath PM Mark Carney’s wings, Danish PM Mette Frederiksen is now enjoying a similar Trump bump, POLITICO’s Seb Starcevic and Jakob Weizman report this morning. Frederiksen’s party has seen a dramatic surge in poll ratings through January after dismal results last year.

HEADLINE DU JOUR: “Hillary Clinton and Tucker Carlson Walk Into a Saudi Real Estate Forum,” by NYT’s Vivian Nereim: “The Democrat and the hard-right commentator found at least one thing to agree upon as they spoke at a conference in Riyadh.”

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TRAIL MIX

RACE OF THE WEEK, PT. II: Rep. Angie Craig’s (D-Minn.) campaign has new polling of their own, shared exclusively with Playbook, pushing back on numbers claiming that Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan has a wide lead in the Minnesota Senate race. Polling by Impact Research of 600 likely voters in Minnesota puts the race closer, with Flanagan at 45 percent and Craig at 42 percent — within the poll’s 4-point margin of error. But when comparing negatives — where Flanagan is hammered on state fraud and Craig is slammed on supporting ICE — the poll claims Craig gets a double-digit lead. See the memo

ENDORSEMENT WATCH: Justice Democrats today is endorsing its 10th candidate this cycle in Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang in her primary challenge against longtime Rep. Doris Matsui in California’s 7th Congressional District, according to an announcement shared with Playbook. The endorsement highlights Vang’s commitment to addressing affordability as well as the ICE operations that have roiled California.

TALES FROM THE CRYPTO: Fairshake, a super PAC group funded by the cryptocurrency industry, has grown its war chest to more than $190 million ahead of the midterms, POLITICO’s Jasper Goodman reports. The massive cash pile is intended to push lawmakers to support industry-friendly legislation that so far has struggled to advance in the Senate.

CASH DASH: Alexander Vindman, the former NSC aide who helped trigger Trump’s first impeachment, raised a whopping $1.7 million in the first day after launching a campaign to take on Florida GOP Sen. Ashley Moody, POLITICO’s Kimberly Leonard scooped. It’s the highest amount reported in a day raised by any other Senate candidate in Florida history.

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BEST OF THE REST

YOU JUST KNOW THIS IS GOING TO BLOW UP: “FBI raids Fulton County election office seeking ballots from Trump’s 2020 loss,” by the Atlanta Journal Constitution’s Greg Bluestein and colleagues: “The FBI raided Fulton County’s election operations center Wednesday, an action apparently connected to the Trump administration’s long-held, but unproven, belief that Fulton’s handling of the 2020 presidential election was rife with fraud. Reached by phone Wednesday, Fulton County Court Clerk Ché Alexander said a large number of federal agents were retrieving boxes of ballots from the warehouse where they were being stored.

Spotted: DNI Tulsi Gabbard on the scene. (Pic here.)

HAPPENING TODAY: Gianni Infantino, the FIFA president and omnipresent Trump super-pal, will speak at the U.S. Conference of Mayors’ Winter Meeting at the Marriott Marquis today, POLITICO’s Sophia Cai and Natalie Fertig scoop. Infantino’s pitch to America’s local leaders is just the latest sign of his unusually aggressive outreach to U.S. power centers ahead of this summer’s FIFA World Cup.

A MAHA MESS: A meeting earlier this month between HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the American Medical Association’s leader has set off a round of infighting within the nation’s leading lobbying group for doctors, POLITICO’s Simon Levien scoops. A group of members complained to the AMA’s board chair, insisting Kennedy is a threat to public health whom the group should shun.

PAYING THE PRICE: The Congressional Budget Office estimates that Trump’s “deployment of National Guard and active-duty Marine personnel to U.S. cities cost approximately $496 million between June and December last year,” WaPo’s Mariana Alfaro reports. If the deployment stretches over the next year, it could cost $1 billion, according to the CBO estimate.

ACA DEAL INCOMING? Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) told reporters Republicans were extending their “best and final” to revive the expired Obamacare subsidies following weeks of bipartisan negotiations, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney and Robert King report. Discussions have centered on imposing immediate new restrictions on Obamacare such as an income limit. Sen. Angus King (I-Maine) sounded optimistic about the prospect of a deal.

CABINET JUICE: “Inside the White House frustrations with Sean Duffy,” by POLITICO’s Sophia Cai and Daniel Lippman: “Those interviewed for this article said that Trump hasn’t soured on [the Transportation secretary] and senior staff have moved on, but that the secretary’s tendency to blur the line between official responsibilities and family politics has been one of several missteps he has made over the past year.”

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TALK OF THE TOWN

MELANIA’S MOMENT — It’s a big day for Melania Trump as her “Melania” documentary is set to debut with plenty of pomp at the Kennedy Center premiere tonight. The president and first lady will hit the red carpet around 7 p.m. Though pre-approved members of the media are allowed to observe all the glamour of the entrances, we hear press won’t be allowed to actually view the movie tonight.

The guest list is … eclectic: According to The Hollywood Reporter, the Trumps will be joined by Donald Trump Jr., Indian musician A.R. Rahman, Jordan Belfort (yes, the “Wolf of Wall Street”), former NYC Mayor Eric Adams, Waka Flocka Flame, Maria Bartiromo, Jack Posobiec, FIFA President Gianni Infantino, Dr. Phil, former NFL players and UFC fighters, second lady Usha Vance, CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, AG Pam Bondi, White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and plenty more.

The real drama will seemingly come after the event. Page Six reports that there are two after-parties — one that’s recognized as the “official” affair and another at Donald Trump Jr.’s uber-exclusive Executive Branch club. “The official invite-only shindig, we hear, will include 250 guests. ‘That’s the official, proper producers’ party,’ said a source,” per Page Six. As for DJT’s gig? Akon will be a special performer and the invite calls for “business attire,” with cocktails and canapés on the menu.

As for the wide release, the film is set to open across 1,500 theaters in select cities beginning tomorrow. In the D.C. area, you can get a ticket to “Melania” at AMCs (but act quickly if you want a seat for the 6:30 p.m. showing in Georgetown! There’s only the front row left.) Variety is projecting the film will earn between $3 million to $5 million this weekend — a notable number for a documentary, but “terrible for a film that cost $40 million to acquire.” That would put it below “the Daily Wire-produced Matt Walsh film ‘Am I Racist?,’ which opened to $4.5 million from 1,517 locations in September 2024,” The Wrap notes.

About that acquisition: Hollywood is still scratching its head over Amazon’s play with the film, NYT’s Nicole Sperling and Brooks Barnes report. The $35 million marketing budget “is 10 times what some other high-profile documentaries have received” and many are wondering “whether Amazon’s push is anything more than the company’s attempt to ingratiate itself with President Trump.” Amazon employees were told they couldn’t opt out of working on the project “for political reasons,” per NYT.

Even more reading: “The Canceled Hollywood Director Spinning the Melania Movie Into His Comeback,” by WSJ’s Jessica Toonkel and John Jurgensen … “Melania Trump Documentary Pulled From South African Theaters,” by NYT’s John Eligon

CENTER OF ATTENTION — “Kennedy Center’s new programming head resigns days after hire was announced,” by WaPo’s Travis Andrews: “In a Jan. 16 news release, the Kennedy Center announced that Kevin Couch would be its new senior vice president of artistic programming. On Jan. 22, the center posted the announcement on X. Not a week later, Couch resigned. … Couch’s surprisingly quick resignation comes as the Kennedy Center is shedding talent from its stages.”

OUTBACK’S BIGGEST FAN — West Virginia GOP Sen. Jim Justice’s favorite haunt in the DMV for steak isn’t one of D.C.’s bonafides, NOTUS’ Emily Kennard writes: “It’s an unassuming Outback Steakhouse tucked in a strip mall in the suburbs of Arlington, Virginia, where he and his constant canine companion, Babydog, a very plump English bulldog, have a regular table. … He holds what one staffer called ‘impromptu staff meetings’ to discuss legislation and messaging from a corner booth that can accommodate staff, the senator and Babydog.”

PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — “Government moves to sell Old Post Office, once home to Trump hotel,” by WaPo’s Olivia George and Jonathan O'Connell: “The Trump administration is preparing to sell the Old Post Office, a 19th-century landmark in the heart of D.C. that previously housed one of the president’s luxury hotels … the building is now home to a Waldorf Astoria hotel. For many, though, it remains synonymous with the previous tenant: The Trump International Hotel.”

OUT AND ABOUT — BGR Group hosted its annual NRSC kickoff reception on Tuesday night, raising over $1.6 million. SPOTTED: Senate Majority Leader John Thune, NRSC Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.), Sens. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), John Boozman (R-Ark.), Ted Budd (R-N.C.), Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), Jon Husted (R-Ohio), Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.), Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.), Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), and Todd Young (R-Ind.), John Sununu, Josh Lynch, Brian Herrington, Alison Weiss, Christine Burgeson, Justin Rzepka, Erskine Wells, Bob Wood, Joseph Lai, William Crozer, Kirsten Madison and Steve Pfrang.

MEDIA MOVE — James Oliphant is now deputy managing editor at The Capitol Forum. He previously worked at Reuters.

TRANSITIONS — Jon Schweppe is returning to his former employer, American Principles Project, where he will serve as a senior adviser. He previously served as a senior policy adviser at the Federal Trade Commission. … Erin Murphy is joining Redpoint Advisors as managing director for Asia. She previously was at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

WEDDING — Boris Sanchez, an anchor for "CNN News Central", and Lilly Huber, a category manager at Amazon, got married on Jan. 18 at The Edition Miami Beach. Pic, via Olivia Derocher Photography … Another pic … SPOTTED: Brianna Keilar, Dana Bash, Wolf Blitzer, Ana Navarro, Michael Glantz, Laura Coates, Kristen Holmes and Noah Gray, Sara Sidner, Ryan Young and Jeff Zeleny.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.) and Lateefah Simon (D-Calif.) … former Speaker Paul Ryan … Robyn Bash … Bloomberg’s Lauren Dezenski and Eric Roston … Jocelyn Frye … Kristy Schantz … Steve Hagenbuch … Gavin Proffitt … Seth Appleton … Amazon’s Mary Kate McCarthy … Kristine Grow of Arnold Ventures … POLITICO’s Annie Connell-Bryan … Laura Rosenberger … former Rep. Lee Terry (R-Neb.) … Gaby Marks … Emily Tara Weberman … Maureen “Mo” Elinzano of Rep. Yassamin Ansari’s (D-Ariz.) office … John Newton of the American Farm Bureau Federation … Tom Collamore … Brian Donahue … HUD’s Geoff Smith … Alex Morse … Sam Conchuratt … Kim Ghattas … WaPo’s Jonathan Fischer and Jesús Rodríguez … Aaron Guiterman … Alexis Torres … Ellen Ehrnrooth … Suzanne Leous of the American Society of Hematology … Nathan Janda of Feldman Strategies … Newsmax’s Anna Laudiero … Michael Duga

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A message from AHIP:

35 Million Seniors Could See Reduced Benefits and Higher Costs

Health plans welcome reforms to strengthen Medicare Advantage. However, a proposal for flat program funding at a time of sharply rising medical costs and high utilization of care will directly impact seniors' coverage. If finalized, this proposal could result in benefit reductions and higher costs for 35 million seniors and people with disabilities when they renew their Medicare Advantage coverage in October 2026. Learn more.