| | | |  | | By Ali Bianco | Presented by the National Retail Federation | With help from Eli Okun and Makayla Gray Good Sunday morning. This is Ali Bianco, taking the lead today. College football has its big night tomorrow, when your author will be torn between my Big Ten roots and my hometown Miami Hurricanes. But with the Indiana Hoosiers’ Miami-born star QB Fernando Mendoza taking the field tomorrow, the 305 is winning either way you slice it. Send me your predictions. Also placing their bets: Indiana Gov. Mike Braun and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who have a little wager going on X. “If IU loses, I’ll send you some pork from [Fischer Farms], which is in my neck of the woods in Dubois County, plus some pies from the famous [Wick’s Pies],” Braun wrote online. “I am happy to oblige,” DeSantis responded, heaping praise on Mendoza and saying if Indiana wins, he’ll send over Joe’s Stone Crab and key lime pie. “I will just drop them off in Naples or Marco Island since that’s basically Indiana south this time of year.”
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
As the backlash over immigration enforcement grows, Democratic advocates say they’re ready to seize on that opening. | Yuki Iwamura/AP | DEPORTATION DRIVE: The fatal shooting of Renee Good by an ICE agent in Minneapolis on Jan. 7 has emerged as the latest flashpoint in the Trump administration’s sprawling immigration enforcement operation — and ongoing protests across the country have repositioned the unprecedented crackdown at the center of political conversation. With the midterms around the corner, there’s little doubt on either side that immigration will play a critical role. For Republicans, it’s been a winning issue in recent years, but now that they’ve had uniform control, they’ll have to play defense on their enforcement tactics as they face the first across-the-board test since their 2024 wins. Almost exactly a year ago, President Donald Trump was sworn in for his second term as president, claiming a sweeping mandate from voters to clamp down on the southern border and enact what he promised would be the largest deportation campaign in U.S. history. The 2024 election was in part marked by a backlash from certain voters for how immigration enforcement played out under then-President Joe Biden’s administration. It became one of Trump’s top-performing issues, and the spotlight on immigration has only intensified. For the greater GOP in 2024, immigration was also a winning message down ballot. Now that they’re playing defense in the House and Senate, the emphasis on law enforcement is a message Republicans want to keep touting to voters, one Republican operative who was granted anonymity to discuss the GOP’s strategy told Playbook. If immigration, crime and public safety can remain top of mind until November, “these are topics that Republicans win on — let’s be aggressive and let’s talk about it,” the operative told Playbook. To be sure, immigration (whether enforcement or otherwise) is not often the number one issue for voters. In the 2025 elections, it was one of the top-five concerns, but it was outranked by the economy, cost of living and/or health care. Still, the issue is only growing in its visibility and salience. But there’s reason for concern: An avalanche of polling following the growing tensions in Minneapolis all exhibits the same trend.
- AP-NORC put Trump’s approval on immigration at 38 percent in findings released after Good’s death, down from 49 percent last March not long after Trump took office. About half believe Trump has “gone too far” on deportations.
- The latest CNN poll has 51 percent of Americans saying ICE is making cities less safe, compared to 31 percent who say it’s making cities safer.
- The Economist/YouGov survey pegs it at 51 percent disapproval of Trump on immigration, with 44 percent approving.
- In Quinnipiac University’s latest poll, 53 percent of voters said they believe the Minneapolis shooting wasn’t justified, and ICE gets a 57 percent disapproval rating compared to 40 percent approval.
- Reuters/Ipsos’ latest polling — which had Trump at a peak of 50 percent approval on his handling of immigration last February — now reports 41 percent approval for Trump on the issue.
- Rounding it out this morning, the latest poll from CBS News/YouGov shows 52 percent of Americans believe ICE is making cities less safe, compared to 31 percent who say they’re making them more safe. Trump’s deportation push gets a 54 percent disapproval rating, with 46 percent approving.
As the backlash over immigration enforcement grows, Democratic advocates who spoke with Playbook say they’re ready to seize on that opening. And they’re targeting a key part of the GOP’s 2024 coalition: Latino voters. Latino communities are among the most directly impacted by the enforcement operations. Polls have also started to show a softening of Trump’s support among Latinos. And with the razor-thin margins in the House and Senate, flipping these swing voters could help decide control of Congress come November. “It won’t take a lot of prompting, because people are actually seeing that,” UnidosUS’ Janet Murguía told Playbook about persuading voters after the immigration enforcement actions. She believes immigration will be a “big motivating factor” for voters, with the scenes coming out of Minnesota only amplifying that. Latino advocacy groups like UnidosUS are all gearing up to slam the administration for deporting Latino families and tying that back to the economy, arguing the GOP is more focused on “disrupting communities” than addressing the cost of living. But because it’s midterm season and not a presidential cycle, the calculus isn’t just about which blocs of voters make up a winning coalition — it’s also about which voters show up at all. Immigration is undoubtedly one of the main messages for the MAGA base. The enforcement operations are a “big motivator” for the “America First” crowd that wants to see Trump continue acting on his agenda — which would be decidedly more difficult should the GOP voters fail to turn out and the party loses bicameral control, the GOP operative told Playbook. The enforcement messaging is “more tailored toward the base who needs to turn out in the midterms,” that person said. These two dynamics on immigration messaging will converge for the GOP in certain must-win campaigns. A Republican like Gabe Evans in Colorado or Maria Elvira Salazar in Florida — both of whom sit on the DCCC’s list of top House seat targets this year — will tailor the pro-enforcement messaging to his or her district’s Republican voters, the operative said. These districts have a heavy presence of Latino voters who could make or break these margins. “Here’s the reality: the President campaigned on and won an election based on his promise to carry out the largest mass deportation operation in history — he’s keeping his promise and the American people are appreciative,” White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson told Playbook in a statement. “The entire Administration is working to carry out the President’s agenda and push back on Democrats’ lies, that are often amplified by the media, about our enforcement operations which target the worst of the worst.” THE FLIP SIDE: The ICE raids are also lighting up conversation in Democratic primaries across the country, as Democrats sound off about how they should be crafting their messaging on immigration amid renewed calls to “abolish ICE.” POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky, Nicholas Wu, Shia Kapos, Madison Fernandez and Andrew Howard spoke with Democratic candidates from Minnesota (the center of the action) to Michigan to Illinois to New Jersey on how they’re navigating the potential opening on immigration as a key midterms message.
| | | | A message from the National Retail Federation: NRF 2026: Retail's Big Show was a global success featuring everything from iconic brands to innovations that turned startups into billion-dollar global companies. Attendees gained new insights to help make bold choices in the year ahead with futuristic technology that is transforming retail. Learn more. | | | | SUNDAY BEST … — Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey on the federal criminal inquiry into him and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “We have not received anything [official]. I’m not aware of specific allegations. But, if it were true, the targeting would be the product of performing one of the most basic responsibilities and obligations that I have as mayor, which is to speak on behalf of our great city, speak on behalf of our constituents. And that the federal government would be going after me because of that speech should be deeply concerning … First Amendment speech is not something that we negotiate away in this country.” — Deputy AG Todd Blanche on the probes, on “Fox News Sunday”: “You saw the governor and the mayor actively encouraging criminals to go out on the street and impede ICE. That is not allowed under our law. When a federal officer is out doing their job, they have to be allowed to do their jobs. … No matter who you are, whether you’re a governor, a mayor or somebody out there on the streets assaulting ICE, you cannot, under federal law, you cannot impede a federal officer doing their job. And that’s what we’re looking at, and I’m not going to talk about the investigation, but American people can see what the mayor has been saying, they can see what the governor’s been saying, and it’s obvious that that has to stop.” — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on the rationale for Trump’s tariffs, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “The national emergency is avoiding a national emergency. … What if during the great financial crisis, someone had raised their hand in 2005, 2006, and said, ‘Stop with subprime mortgages’? But no one did. President Trump is raising his hand, and that is preventing the emergency.” Kristen Welker: “Do you think the Supreme Court will agree with that rationale, Mr. Secretary?” Bessent: “I believe that it is very unlikely that the Supreme Court will overrule a president’s signature economic policy. They did not overrule Obamacare. I believe that the Supreme Court does not want to create chaos.” — Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) on Trump’s Greenland threats, on ABC’s “This Week”: “The president is lying to the American people when he says this is about security. This is not about security … This is about a land grab. Donald Trump wants to get his hands on the minerals and other resources of Greenland, just like the real reason he went into Venezuela had nothing to do with stopping drugs from coming. … We could take action under the War Powers Resolution. But a lot of our Republican colleagues talk big until it comes time to vote.” TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.
9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR 1. TOP TALKER: A draft charter shows that Trump’s planned Board of Peace — the parent of his Board of Peace for Gaza — would have him as chair (with control over who gets admitted) and demand $1 billion from any country to be a permanent member, Bloomberg’s Alberto Nardelli and Alex Wickham scooped. “Critics are worried that Trump is trying to build an alternative, or rival, to the United Nations,” and some of the European countries that have been invited have serious concerns about Trump controlling the money. A U.S. official says it will go toward rebuilding Gaza. Rare pushback: Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s government indicated that the composition of the board didn’t square with Israeli policy, per Reuters. 2. ALL EYES ON MINNESOTA: Intense protests and clashes continued in Minneapolis yesterday as a massive federal immigration enforcement operation ramped up — and further escalation could still be right around the corner. Federal agents detained and sprayed chemicals at demonstrators. In one spot, conservative influencer Jake Lang was chased away by counterprotesters and seen bleeding. Details from the Minnesota Star Tribune Coming next? Some 1,500 active-duty soldiers — Army paratroopers stationed in Alaska — have been placed on standby to respond to be sent to Minnesota, though Trump hasn’t yet decided on their deployment, ABC’s Anne Flaherty and Steve Beynon scooped. The FBI is seeking voluntary tours of duty in Minnesota from agents across the country who want to go there temporarily, Bloomberg’s Margi Murphy and Jeff Stone report. And Walz has mobilized, though not yet deployed, the state National Guard to support local law enforcement if necessary, per USA Today. The tinderbox: “[ICE] officers are walking and driving through the largely residential city looking for people to arrest — and coming into close contact with angry and organized residents,” WSJ’s Michelle Hackman and colleagues report from Minneapolis. “That proximity helps explain why federal agents are clashing more with locals here than anywhere else.” The federal investigation: After ICE officer Jonathan Ross fatally shot Good, the federal probe into her death is focusing less on Ross — and more on whether Good’s partner, Becca Good, did anything to impede ICE, NBC’s Ryan Reilly and colleagues scooped. 3. TRANSATLANTIC FREAKOUT: EU ambassadors are gathering today for an emergency conversation about how to respond to Trump’s imposition of tariffs on several European countries, which he announced as a tool to force them to allow the U.S. to buy Greenland, NBC’s Raquel Coronell Uribe and Steve Kopack report. French President Emmanuel Macron today called for the bloc to activate its “anti-coercion instrument,” which has never been used before, to restrict U.S. businesses from accessing the EU market, FT’s Alice Hancock and colleagues report. Trump’s shock threat will also likely pause the EU’s green light for a trade agreement with the U.S., Bloomberg’s Richard Bravo reports. And it amounts to “an ice-cold reminder to leaders in Europe and abroad: No deal is ever final,” Bloomberg’s Josh Wingrove writes. N.B.: Trump is also growing increasingly frustrated with Canada and what he sees as its insufficient defense spending to protect against China and Russia in the Arctic, NBC’s Katherine Doyle and colleagues report.
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| | | | 4. KISS OF DEATH? Trump upended the Louisiana Senate race last night by finally wading in to endorse against incumbent Republican Bill Cassidy, per the New Orleans Advocate’s Matthew Albright. Instead, Trump said he would back Rep. Julia Letlow if she mounts a primary challenge to Cassidy. This represents the toughest political challenge yet to Cassidy, who voted to impeach Trump in his first term despite generally supporting the president, including providing the decisive vote to make Robert F. Kennedy Jr. HHS secretary. Letlow responded that she was “honored to have President Trump’s endorsement and trust,” though she didn’t yet say she would definitely run for Senate. What Indiana is watching: Trump also excoriated Indiana state Senate GOP leader Rodric Bray for rejecting the White House’s unprecedented efforts to institute a gerrymander. Trump said he and Club for Growth leader David McIntosh would work to unseat Bray: “We’re after you Bray, like no one has ever come after you before!” More on the midterms: A new CNN poll finds Democrats with a 5-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, and they’re ahead by 16 among people who are deeply motivated to vote — even though approval of Democratic congressional leaders remains ultra-low. 5. 2028 WATCH: “These Are the 12 States Vying to Kick Off Democrats’ 2028 Contest,” by NYT’s Reid Epstein and colleagues: “State parties in these places applied: West: Nevada and New Mexico. South: Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia. Midwest: Illinois, Iowa and Michigan. East: New Hampshire and Delaware.” 6. VENEZUELA LATEST: Trump has emphasized working with acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez after capturing her predecessor Nicolás Maduro over drug trafficking charges. But AP’s Jim Mustian and colleagues reveal that the Drug Enforcement Administration has compiled intelligence on Rodríguez, too, for years and named her a “priority target” in 2022 for alleged ties to drug trafficking — though that falls short of being indicted or publicly accused. The regime that remains: Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, one of the hardline architects of Venezuela’s repressive security state, has been communicating with Trump administration officials for months before and after the Maduro operation, Reuters’ Erin Banco and colleagues scooped. How it’s playing: A new WSJ poll finds that a narrow plurality of U.S. voters approve of Trump’s Maduro raid, 49 percent to 47 percent. But running Venezuela for a while? That’s not very popular — opposition is 57 percent to 39 percent. And Trump is underwater on his handling of foreign affairs and overall priorities. 7. FIRST AMENDMENT FILES: “‘We’ll Sue’: White House’s Warning to CBS Is Sign of a New Media Status Quo,” by NYT’s Michael Grynbaum and Ben Mullin: “Moments after President Trump finished taping a 13-minute interview on Tuesday with the ‘CBS Evening News’ anchor Tony Dokoupil in Michigan, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, approached Mr. Dokoupil and his colleagues to convey a message from the president. … ‘He said, “If it’s not out in full, we’ll sue your ass off.”’ … Some of the CBS personnel who were there absorbed Ms. Leavitt’s remarks as being in jest … CBS News aired the full unedited interview that evening, which the network said was its plan all along.” 8. MEDIAWATCH: Staffers at WaPo are increasingly frustrated that four days after FBI agents searched Post reporter Hannah Natanson’s house, owner Jeff Bezos still hasn’t denounced the move, POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman writes in. “Of course he should speak out — it’s a clear escalation and an obvious threat to journalists,” said one Post staffer. “Sulzberger would do it,” referring to NYT owner A.G. Sulzberger. The reporter said Bezos had spent more than a year cultivating Trump and “this would threaten that relationship” if he said anything against the raid related to a probe of a contractor for allegedly retaining classified materials. A former Post veteran journalist said Bezos is often slow to respond to events at the paper and employees have stopped expecting him to move fast in situations like these. “It’s been a long time since people have heard from him on the Washington Post, and this was an assault on the free press with hardly any precedent,” said the person. “I think he needs to show support for his journalists, and they’re looking for that. There should be a signal to this government that they shouldn’t be doing this and there will be heavy pushback.” One longtime Post journalist added: “I think it would definitely be welcome if he did stand up and defend the paper against what is an extremely serious assault on journalism itself.” The person worried about the “chilling effect” that the raid has on journalists doing their jobs. The Post’s publisher Will Lewis and editorial board have both defended Natanson, but the longtime former Postie said they would have preferred stronger statements. Spokespeople for the Post and Bezos didn’t respond to requests for comment. 9. E-RING READING: “Pentagon pauses HIV-positive recruit training while signaling it may soon reinstate a ban on their enlistment,” by CNN’s Haley Britzky and Devan Cole: “The Pentagon has ordered the military command that processes new recruits to hold off on initial training for people who are HIV-positive and recently joined the military … A decision from the Pentagon’s personnel office, which could reinstate the previous longstanding ban on enlistment that had been Defense Department policy before [a] 2024 ruling, is expected soon.”
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| | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | SPORTS BLINK, PART I: VP JD Vance and second lady Usha Vance will lead the U.S. delegation to the Olympics in Italy next month, along with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, U.S. Ambassador to Italy Tilman Fertitta, Monique Lamoureux-Morando and Evan Lysacek. More from CBS SPORTS BLINK, PART II: President Donald Trump announced that he’ll sign an executive order to force TV networks not to air any other college football games simultaneous to the Army-Navy game. It’s “a move sought by the event’s supporters that also raised immediate legal questions,” WaPo’s Dan Diamond reports. SPORTS BLINK, PART III: “The State Department’s secret playbook for using sports to advance Trump’s agenda,” by POLITICO’s Nahal Toosi and Sophia Cai: “The documents include a ‘Sports Diplomacy Playbook’ laying out how the country should use mega-events like the World Cup and Olympics to advance a mix of soft-power and foreign-investment aims, along with some of Trump’s social-policy priorities.” OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at Abigail Spanberger’s swearing-in ceremony as governor of Virginia yesterday in Richmond: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Sens. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), Mark Warner (D-Va.) and Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill, Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.) and Megan Beyer, Reps. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), Jennifer McClellan (D-Va.) and James Walkinshaw (D-Va.), Glenn Youngkin, Douglas Wilder, Jim Moran, Don Scott, Jennifer Wexton and Derek Kilmer. TRANSITION — John Connell is joining Google as government affairs and public policy lead for the U.S. and Canada, per Axios’ Ashley Gold. He previously was chief of staff for Sen. Todd Young’s (R-Ind.). WEDDING — Talia Marcus and Charles Blaettler, via NYT: “She is a senior growth manager at Democracy Docket … He is the deputy federal affairs director for the Working Families Party in New York. … On Dec. 31, 2025, they were married at the Ravel Hotel in Long Island City.” HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Keisha Lance Bottoms … Martin O’Malley … former Reps. Kay Granger (R-Texas), Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Fla.) and Mike Michaud (D-Maine) … Josh Orton … Keith Schipper … POLITICO’s Evan Gaskin and Calder McHugh … Yagmur Cosar of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation … Yudhijit Bhattacharjee … The Dispatch’s John McCormack … Adam Radman of Americans for Tax Reform … Charlotte Fox of the International Women’s Media Foundation … Nan Powers Varoga … NBC’s Jane Timm … Samara Yudof Jones … Jonathan Serrie of Fox News … Ben Jealous … former Sen. Paul Kirk (D-Mass.) … CNN’s Sam Waldenberg … Paul Equale … Ben Nuckels … Gabrielle Mannino … Gadi Dechter … Kyra Thordsen of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee … Kelly Kundinger … American Conservation Coalition’s Lily Long … Brett Horton … Ryan Taylor … Dave Lucas Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Garrett Ross.
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