| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Dasha discuss the prospect of war in Iran, the fallout from Trump’s tariff defeat … and that video of Kash Patel in Milan.
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| Good Monday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, wearily dusting off the snow boots — and maybe the hip flask — for one last rodeo before spring. Federal agencies and D.C. public schools are open despite the snow, but on two-hour delayed arrivals. Congress has canceled all votes for the day. Enjoy it while it lasts! Temperatures will be back up in the mid-50s by Wednesday. Get in touch. LOCKER ROOM TALK: How much trouble is Kash Patel in over his beer-chugging, fist-pumping, table-slamming jaunt to the men’s Olympic hockey final in Milan? Less than you might think, if you’re one of the 13 million people who watched the leaked video of his locker room antics on X yesterday, or indeed one of 160 million American taxpayers who effectively paid for the trip. Charge sheet: Yes, the footage was like nothing we’ve ever seen from an FBI director. Yes, Patel has a history of using his position to get himself into the world’s biggest hockey games. Yes, Patel’s spokesman strenuously denied he was in Italy to “hang out at the Olympics.” Yes, the timing was terrible, given the deadly break-in at Mar-a-Lago. Yes, Patel has been criticized repeatedly about his use of FBI resources. Yes, we’ve all seen the video of him attacking his predecessor Christopher Wray for his taxpayer-funded travel. And yes, we all remember William Sessions. The video has obviously gone viral, and Dems are already starting to pile on. “The grift & corruption is unreal,” said Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.). “Your taxpayer dollars funding the FBI Director’s Italian vacation.” Or Rep. Sean Casten (D-Ill.): “3 million pages of evidence of a massive child sex trafficking ring and this is what the FBI director is doing right now.” Expect plenty more of that kind of talk today. But let’s face it: There’s only one audience that matters if you work for this administration — and frankly President Donald Trump sounded pleased as punch when Patel got him on the line to address the victorious team in the locker room. The president even suggested to the U.S. players that Patel could help get them to the State of the Union speech tomorrow night (along with the victorious women’s team) if they fancy a night out in D.C. So yeah — he should be fine. Anyway: Patel made sure he had some official business lined up beforehand. He had a patriotic message on X to deploy after the match. And frankly, such is the national euphoria at Team USA's stunning double hockey golds that it’s hard to imagine much serious public backlash to anything today … Truly, a pair of wins for the ages. Many congratulations to both teams. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: “The bots powering Nicki Minaj’s MAGA war,” by POLITICO’s Jason Beeferman. “Nicki Minaj spent the past year transforming herself from a polarizing rap superstar into a high-profile conservative provocateur … But quietly, humming in the background of her varied social media blitzes, a sophisticated army of bots was unconditionally praising and amplifying Minaj’s content, according to a new report shared exclusively with POLITICO … [The report] identified one day, Dec. 26, when fake profiles made up 56 percent of all comments on political posts made by Minaj.” Alex Bruesewitz, a media and political adviser to Trump who considers Minaj a “very close friend,” told POLITICO he is confident there are no bots involved with the rapper’s social media presence. Representatives for Minaj did not respond to requests for comment. In today’s Playbook … — All the reasons why Trump seems ready to strike Iran. — The tiny energy startup shortlisted for a $25 billion contract under Trump’s newest trade deal. — And how Democratic AGs are prepping to resist election interference this fall.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER: The dust has barely settled on Trump’s seismic defeat at the Supreme Court last Friday — but attention is moving rapidly to the next crisis on the horizon. The world is holding its breath as the president mulls air strikes against Iran as soon as this week. The stakes could not be higher, given the history of U.S. entanglements in the Middle East. This is a legacy-defining moment for Trump. And let’s be clear: All the signs point to imminent military action. Just watch what’s happening: The massive military buildup continues, with flight tracking websites showing mysterious flights headed toward Diego Garcia and elsewhere overnight. Boat-spotters (yes, they exist) photographed the fully laden USS Gerald R. Ford entering the Mediterranean on Friday, meaning it should be within strike range any day. The simple fact is that America has never built up a military force like this and not used it. It’s hard to believe they’ll all be sent home without firing a shot. Listen to the rhetoric: Trump warned Tehran last week he is “going to get a deal one way or another” and suggested a 10-15 day maximum timeframe. But Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested a much tighter timeline on Fox News this weekend — claiming Iran’s regime is “probably a week away from having industrial-grade bomb-making material." That's the kind of talk that could be used to justify military action in a matter of days. Observe the target: There’s no doubt just how seriously Iran is taking the threat, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dispatched on the sort of U.S. media blitz we’ve rarely seen from a top Iranian politician. He did MS NOW’s “Morning Joe” last Friday and CBS’ “Face the Nation” over the weekend, promising to get a detailed counter-proposal to the U.S. in the coming days. There are more talks scheduled in Geneva on Thursday, if we get that far. Think about the psychology: Iran would have to come up with one heck of an offer now for Trump to be able to walk back all his threats and stand down all this military hardware without being accused of another damaging “TACO” moment. And the Supreme Court’s decision last Friday to slap down the president's use of tariffs only makes an attack more likely, in the view of Trump’s former commerce secretary, Wilbur Ross. “I don’t think he can take this loss and then be seen as backing down on Iran,” Ross told the WSJ. Consider the politics: The Iran war powers resolution proposed by Reps. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) currently looks doomed to fail. Thus far, Massie is the only Republican backing the measure, with even arch Trump critics like Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) refusing to voice support. Over the weekend, Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) became the first House Democrat to come out against the measure, making the numbers even harder for Khanna and Massie. Trump will only feel emboldened by congressional support.
| | | | A message from AHIP: 35 Million Seniors Could See Reduced Benefits and Higher Costs. Health plans welcome reforms to strengthen Medicare Advantage. However, a proposal for flat program funding at a time of sharply rising medical costs and high utilization of care will directly impact seniors' coverage. If finalized, this proposal could result in benefit reductions and higher costs for 35 million seniors and people with disabilities when they renew their Medicare Advantage coverage in October 2026. Learn more. | | | | Check out the whispers from inside the White House: “Trump has been leaning toward conducting an initial strike in coming days intended to demonstrate to Iran’s leaders that they must be willing to agree to give up the ability to make a nuclear weapon,” the NYT reported last night. “Targets under consideration range from the headquarters of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to the country’s nuclear sites to the ballistic missile program.” Trump could even try to topple the regime with overwhelming military force later this year if the initial strike does not deliver the deal he wants, per NYT. And yet … This is Trump we’re talking about. Few, if any, members of the administration know exactly what’s being planned. “One defense official told me there have been multiple times just in the last few weeks or couple of months that they’ve left the building thinking they were going to come back at three in the morning because something was going to happen,” Dasha tells us. “And then you wake up to the regular alarm being like — ‘oh, I guess we decided not to go through with that.’ And that is the story of the Trump approach to war and peace.” Now cue the man himself: Trump is due to face the media at 10 a.m., and will no doubt be asked for an update — but in truth, the first we’ll know about any strikes is when the bombs start falling. (Remember — some media outlets got wind of Trump’s operation to extract Nicolás Maduro but chose not to publish details in advance.) And Trump’s focus for the next couple of days — in public at least — will surely be domestic matters, as he seeks to use tomorrow’s State of the Union speech to shore up voter support. That effort starts this morning at a White House event with the families of people killed by unauthorized immigrants, including the mother of Laken Riley. The aim will be to get back on the front foot on immigration after a rocky few weeks. ICE frenemies: DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and border czar Tom Homan will both be there, so body language experts should have a field day.
| | | | A message from AHIP:  
| | | | TRADING PLACES FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: A three-year-old energy company with less than five employees is one of the top contenders for a $25 billion contract from Trump’s massive trade deal with Japan, POLITICO’s Daniel Desrochers reports in a truly jaw-dropping story this morning. The company, Entra1 Energy, has never undertaken a nuclear project and (per its website) is based out of a WeWork in Houston, but it's on the short list to lead Trump’s massive energy infrastructure build. “Priming the little-known Entra1 — a company with ties to Trump donors — for such a large payout shows how the Trump administration might avoid using taxpayer dollars for the president’s bet on nuclear power,” Daniel writes. “Energy experts say it has become more common for big nuclear companies to outsource the kind of work Entra1 is offering. But its lack of experience in this space, the dearth of information about its operations and threadbare staffing make it a risky choice.” TARIFF FALLOUT: The dust is still settling across Washington (and the world) after the Supreme Court’s blockbuster ruling striking down Trump’s tariffs. But the White House was out in full force yesterday projecting a united front that tariffs are here to stay, NYT’s Tony Romm and colleagues write. USTR Jamieson Greer said the combination of temporary Section 122 tariffs and the start of new trade investigations could “reconstruct” Trump’s tariff scheme, insisting the alternative will be “very durable.” When asked about the tricky topic of tariff refunds, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on CNN that “it is not up to the administration … It is up to the lower court.” Off the Hill: Lawmakers won’t be back in D.C. for votes until tomorrow due to the weather — meaning we’ll have to wait an extra day for members to be peppered with questions on the tariffs. And that moment will come just hours before Trump’s State of the Union address to Congress at 9 p.m. The Supreme Court justices, of course, will also head to the Hill tomorrow for Trump’s speech. Get your popcorn ready. Wall Street’s hero of the hour: “Justice Gorsuch Tries to Revive Congress,” by the WSJ’s Editorial Board
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➡️ Sign up for POLITICO Forecast. | | | | | TRAIL MIX RISE OF THE RESISTANCE: Democratic state AGs have spent months strategizing for possible election interference from the president, “huddled in hotel conference rooms and over Zoom meetings to run tabletop exercises,” POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky reports this morning. Among the scenarios they’re preparing for are the administration confiscating ballots or voting machines, cutting resources from the postal service or sending federal agents to voting locations. “[Trump] wants to continue to have his party prevail, seemingly by whatever means necessary,” California AG Rob Bonta told Lisa. “So we have to be ready for that.” WHERE DEMS GO NEXT: The DCCC is announcing its first round of top-tier Democratic candidates for its “Red to Blue” program this cycle, effectively getting a boost from House Democrats’ campaign arm as their seats become top targets for the party. The candidates are: Jonathan Nez in AZ-02, JoAnna Mendoza in AZ-06, Christina Bohannan in IA-01, Sarah Trone Garriott in IA-03, Sean McCann in MI-04, Jamie Ager in NC-11, Paige Cognetti in PA-08, Janelle Stelson in PA-10, Chaz Molder in TN-05, Shannon Taylor in VA-01, Elaine Luria in VA-02 and Rebecca Cooke in WI-03. DEEP IN THE HEART: We’re a little over a week out from primary day in Texas. State Rep. James Talarico — who’s locked in a heated primary battle for the Democratic nomination for Senate against Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) — is the subject of another glossy mag profile in The New Yorker this morning. Tad Friend explores Talarico’s ties to his faith, and the strategy of appealing to GOP voters that has made his campaign stand out against Crockett’s more focused efforts to appeal to the Democratic base. TOP TALKER: “Dems working on secret report found Gaza cost Harris votes,” by Axios’ Holly Otterbein: “Top Democratic officials who worked on the party's still-secret autopsy of the 2024 election concluded that Kamala Harris lost significant support because of the Biden administration's approach to the war in Gaza.”
| | | | A message from AHIP:  
| | | | BEST OF THE REST FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Front-running SOTU: Rep. LaMonica McIver (D-N.J.) will deliver the first-ever State of the Union address hosted by Democracy Defenders Action. The SOTU prebuttal, which will stream on MeidasTouch tomorrow morning, is billed as a “State of Our Democracy” speech — coming in a midterm year when many Democrats want to focus on the economy. “The threats facing our democracy have never been greater,” said Norm Eisen, the group’s executive chair. And McIver is a notable choice to deliver the message: The Trump administration is currently prosecuting her on assault charges stemming from a scuffle at an ICE facility oversight visit last year, which she claims is politically motivated. MAYHEM IN MEXICO: The killing of one of Mexico’s most-wanted drug lords has triggered a wave of violence, NYT’s Jack Nicas and Paulina Villegas report from Mexico City. “In states around the country, armed groups blocked roads and set fire to supermarkets, banks and vehicles, in one of the most widespread eruptions of turmoil in the nation’s recent history,” they write. The U.S. has warned citizens currently in Mexico to “shelter in place until further notice.” GREENLAND STANDOFF: “Trump’s talk of sending a hospital ship to Greenland puzzles leaders,” by WaPo’s Evan Halper and Dan Lamothe: “[Trump’s] announcement over the weekend that he would be sending a ‘great hospital boat’ to Greenland to care for the Arctic island’s neglected sick is — like many of the president’s remarks around Greenland — causing befuddlement … Greenland’s prime minister said it will not be welcoming it, as its citizens are guaranteed free health care. … Maritime tracking data further suggests there are no U.S. hospital ships currently positioned to sail to Greenland.” SHUTDOWN FALLOUT: The DHS shutdown continues — with no immediate deal in sight. A procedural vote on funding scheduled for today in the Senate has been punted to tomorrow due to weather. Kristi Noem said yesterday the agency is scaling back its disaster aid “to bare-minimum, life-saving operations only” and “All non-emergency recovery work is paused,” POLITICO’s E&E News’ Thomas Frank reports. It’s one of the first concrete impacts to FEMA after funding lapsed earlier this month. THE MAHA MOMENT: HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s push to challenge the medical establishment may get undercut by massive cuts in federal funding to schools that could educate the next generation of medical contrarians, POLITICO’s Amanda Chu reports. “The contrarians, including nontraditional schools that train naturopathic physicians and herbalists … are finding Kennedy’s desire to punch holes in the medical establishment is running up against the Education Department, which must find cost savings to pay for tax cuts under the Republican law.”
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➡️ Learn More about POLITICO Pro | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | CABINET WATCH, PT. 1 — “D.C. Police Close Probe of Labor Secretary’s Husband,” by WSJ’s Lauren Weber: “Washington, D.C., police said they have closed an investigation into the husband of Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, who had been the subject of a report of unwanted sexual contact by an agency employee. … Detectives from the Metropolitan Police Department’s sexual assault unit conducted a review with the U.S. Attorney’s Office, which determined no evidence of a crime.” CABINET WATCH, PT. 2 — “RFK Jr.’s billionaire running mate is making a comedy about the pandemic,” by POLITICO’s Kelly Hooper: “Covid contrarians tight with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are pitching Hollywood on an unlikely leading man: National Institutes of Health Director Jay Bhattacharya. Nicole Shanahan, Kennedy’s running mate in the 2024 presidential campaign, is searching for investors to fund a movie that pokes fun at the pandemic response with a star based on Bhattacharya.” FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Danielle D’Souza Gill, daughter of Dinesh D’Souza and wife to Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Texas), today is launching “The Danielle Gill Show,” a new podcast with Salem Media. The podcast will cover politics, culture, news and social trends and will release episodes four times a week. TRANSITIONS — Hunter Lovell is now Midwest regional communications director at the RNC. He previously worked at the Labor Department and is a Hill alum. … Alex Sadler is now foreign policy adviser for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). He previously worked at Open Society Foundations. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.) … Reps. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.), John Rose (R-Tenn.) and Mike Flood (R-Neb.) … Jim Manley … Lois Romano … POLITICO’s Katy Murphy and Andrew Briz … Patrick Svitek … Rebecca Chalif … One Campaign’s Gayle Smith … Marissa Mitrovich … Tommy Mattocks … S.E. Cupp … Arjun Mody … Tom Pino … Gary Karr … Patrick Velliky … Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher’s Nikki McArthur … AT Johnston … Molly Hooper … Shannon Geison … Leah Clapman … Courtney Matson … Ziya Smallens … Jill Hudson … Bernie Robinson … former Rep. Kenny Marchant (R-Texas) … Joey Brown of the Senate Republican Communications Center … Richard Lardner … Erenia Michell … Jennifer Epstein … Chris Martin Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.
| | | | A message from AHIP: 35 Million Seniors Could See Reduced Benefits and Higher Costs
Health plans welcome reforms to strengthen Medicare Advantage. However, a proposal for flat program funding at a time of sharply rising medical costs and high utilization of care will directly impact seniors' coverage. If finalized, this proposal could result in benefit reductions and higher costs for 35 million seniors and people with disabilities when they renew their Medicare Advantage coverage in October 2026. Learn more. | | | | | | | | Follow us on X | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Canada Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | |
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