| | | |  | | By Ali Bianco | | Presented by |  | | | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | DEVELOPING: “Peter Mandelson arrested amid Epstein fallout,” by POLITICO’s Matt Honeycombe-Foster in London: “Former U.K. ambassador to Washington Peter Mandelson was arrested Monday on suspicion of misconduct in public office. In a statement a Metropolitan Police spokesperson said: ‘Officers have arrested a 72-year-old man on suspicion of misconduct in public office.’ … The force is probing claims that the senior British politician leaked internal government discussions to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein in the wake of the 2008 financial crash.” Mandelson has not yet commented on the arrest but has said he was wrong to continue associating with Epstein and apologized “unequivocally” to Epstein’s victims.
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President Donald Trump at the White House on Monday used one of his final public appearances before his State of the Union address to harken back to an early policy win. | Alex Brandon/AP | SPLIT SCREEN: This time last year, President Donald Trump was at the height of power after pulling together a coalition that sent him back to the White House. The administration was touting the signing of an immigrant crime crackdown law and started paving the way for Trump’s agenda-defining “big, beautiful bill.” And his signature suite of tariffs was still on the way. Today, that picture looks very different. Trump at the White House this morning used one of his final public appearances before his much-anticipated State of the Union address to harken back to that early policy win: the passage of the Laken Riley Act. The speech had echoes of the political agenda that Trump sailed to victory on in 2024 — repeated false claims of a stolen 2020 election and chaos at the southern border, which he said was basically sealed now. Absent were any mentions of his tariff agenda, now turned upside down by the Supreme Court (or “supreme court,” as Trump referred to it today). With both border czar Tom Homan and DHS Secretary Kristi Noem in attendance, the administration’s controversial and deadly immigration crackdown in Minnesota didn’t come out. He didn’t cast out the members of the GOP who’ve increasingly gone against him. And no word still on the ever-looming possibility of a military strike against Iran. Basically — nothing that has dominated Trump’s thoughts beyond the dais and on Truth Social. The president’s remarks come as public opinion of his performance continues to slide. Just 32 percent of Americans said Trump has the right priorities, with his approval rating at 36 percent, in the latest CNN polling. His approval rating has dropped across every single demographic and ideology since this time last year — and reached a new low mark among independents (26 percent) across both of his terms, per CNN. A new poll from Marist University finds 57 percent who said the state of the union is “not very strong” or “not strong at all.” The new numbers follow WaPo/ABC/Ipsos polling released over the weekend, which put Trump at 39 percent approval and 60 percent disapproval. Trump did address his polling numbers during his otherwise on-topic speech today. “I had polls for the election that showed I was going to get swamped and I won in a landslide,” he said. “They were fake polls. I saw [a fake poll] today, that I’m at 40%. I’m not at 40%. I’m at, much higher than that.” But his frustrations were plain in his Truth Social posts — railing against the high court for going against him and then lobbing threats at countries that might consider backing out of trade deals, POLITICO’s Cheyanne Daniels writes. His comments this morning offer a preview of preparations for a high-stakes moment where Trump will defend his record and try to claw back some of the ground he’s lost with voters. Touting immigration reform on the Laken Riley Act may just be the first taste of that. More Republicans are looking for Trump to address affordability in tomorrow’s speech, and focus in on his massive tax cuts that are set to take effect later this month, POLITICO’s Mia McCarthy and Calen Razor report. As for tariffs, Trump appears ready to spurn the legislative branch once again. “I do not have to go back to Congress to get approval of Tariffs. It has already been gotten, in many forms, a long time ago,” Trump posted today. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer signaled today that Democrats won’t provide votes to extend Trump’s temporary 15 percent tariffs, and privately some Republicans believe they won’t have the votes either, per our Inside Congress colleagues. Either way, it’s all eyes on the president as he gets set to take a prominent platform to shape the narrative of his first year — and what could come next. “We have a country that’s now doing well, we have the greatest economy we’ve ever had and the most activity we’ve ever had. I’m making a speech tomorrow night and you will be hearing me say that,” Trump told the cameras this morning. “It is going to be a long speech, because we have so much to talk about.” Good Monday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. What are you expecting from the State of the Union? Send me your thoughts at abianco@politico.com.
| | | | A message from AHIP: 35 Million Seniors Could See Reduced Benefits and Higher Costs. Health plans welcome reforms to strengthen Medicare Advantage. However, a proposal for flat program funding at a time of sharply rising medical costs and high utilization of care will directly impact seniors' coverage. If finalized, this proposal could result in benefit reductions and higher costs for 35 million seniors and people with disabilities when they renew their Medicare Advantage coverage in October 2026. Learn more. | | | | | | 8 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | 1. OFF THE HILL: There’s still no substantial evidence of progress on a potential deal to end the DHS shutdown, now 10 days deep. The White House is signaling it’s open to codifying some of the changes that Homan implemented in Minnesota, sending a one-page sheet on modifications to the original enforcement operation to Hill offices overnight, per Punchbowl. But it’s basically certain that Trump will be delivering his SOTU address during a partial shutdown. Friction over SAVE Act: Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s relationship with the right wing of his party is being tested over whether to implement a “talking filibuster” to pass the SAVE Act, the Washington Examiner’s David Sivak reports. But it’s not just MAGA influencers who are packing the pressure: Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) took his concerns straight to Trump, asking him to help convince Thune and others to bypass the Senate tradition. 2. TARIFF FALLOUT: U.S. customs will officially stop collecting Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs starting tomorrow, with Trump’s new, temporary 15-percent tariff still yet to be enacted, per Reuters. But the impact of the tariff turnaround is going from hypothetical to concrete: the EU is primed to delay the ratification process of its trade deal with the U.S., waiting to get more details from the administration on next steps and throwing a wrench in the hard-fought trade negotiations, Bloomberg’s Jorge Valero scooped. And while some countries saw their tariff rate slashed with Trump’s renewed 15-percent push, a handful of trading partners saw the inverse — namely, the U.K. and Australia, NYT’s Eshe Nelson and Aaron Krolik write. 3. DRUMBEAT OF WAR: The State Department has ordered nonessential diplomats and their families to leave Lebanon, marking the latest indication that the Middle East may be inching toward a potential conflict, AP’s Matthew Lee reports. The regional security assessment determined it “prudent” to draw back personnel — as Trump increasingly indicates a tight timeline for potential action. “A similar ordered departure was imposed for Beirut and other embassies in the region, including in Iraq, shortly before President Donald Trump ordered military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities last June,” AP notes. Watch this space. Meanwhile in Mexico: Around 25 Mexican National Guard officers were killed in separate strikes that took out “El Mencho,” the head of Mexico’s fast-growing Jalisco New Generation Cartel, over the weekend, AP’s Megan Janetsky and Fabiola Sanchez write. Some Mexican states across the country canceled schools today as violence spiked following the attack on the cartel. On the ground, many communities are girding for more violence, per WaPo. 4. WEAPONIZATION WATCH: “Judge Cannon permanently blocks release of Jack Smith report,” by POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein: “‘Special Counsel Smith and his team went ahead for months, undeterred, preparing [the classified documents report] using discovery collected in connection with this proceeding and expending government funds in the process,’ [Trump-appointed U.S. District Judge Aileen] Cannon wrote in a 15-page ruling issued Monday. ‘To say this chronology represents, at a minimum, a concerning breach of the spirit of the Dismissal Order is an understatement, if not an outright violation of it.’”
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➡️ Sign up for POLITICO Forecast. | | | | | 5. FOR YOUR RADAR: The controversy surrounding Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) over his alleged affair with a former aide, who died by suicide, is growing — now with text messages being reported by multiple outlets. Gonzales allegedly messaged Regina Ann Santos-Aviles, who led his regional district office in Ulvade, to “Send me a sexy pic,” per the San Antonio Express-News. “The congressman went on to ask Santos-Aviles about her favorite sexual positions and to fantasize about having sex with her. Twice, she told Gonzales he was going ‘too far,’” the Express-News writes, noting that the text messages were provided by her widower and authenticated. Gonzales has repeatedly denied the allegations, saying he is being “blackmailed.” Johnson weighs in: “I endorsed Tony before all these allegations came out, they’re obviously very serious, and I’ve spoken with him and told him he’s got to address that in an appropriate way with his constituents,” Speaker Mike Johnson told NBC’s Ryan Nobles. “So it’s too early for anybody to prejudge any of that, but we’ll see how it develops.” 6. SCOTUS WATCH: “Supreme Court Considers Fate of Docks and Other Assets Seized by Cuba in 1960,” by NYT’s Ann Marimow: “More than 60 years ago, Fidel Castro rose to power in Cuba and began confiscating the assets of all American-owned businesses, including the Havana Docks Company. … But a change in policy during the first Trump administration allowed the company to sue major cruise lines for parking ships at the docks and bringing nearly a million people to Havana after rules were loosened in 2016 to allow tourism to the island.” 7. TRAIL MIX: David Sundberg, a former senior FBI official of the Washington Field Office, is expected to launch a congressional bid in Maryland today, a year after the Trump administration forced him and seven others to resign from their positions, NYT’s Charlie Savage reports. “In an interview, Mr. Sundberg said he had decided to run for Congress as he grew dismayed at how President Trump was directing the F.B.I. and Justice Department to investigate and prosecute his perceived political enemies.” Redistricting rodeo: Tomorrow’s unofficial deadline for Maryland to move forward with redistricting is expected to pass without a win for Gov. Wes Moore, who has tried unsuccessfully to push through a new map in the state legislature, WaPo’s Erin Cox reports. “The apparent loss, which Moore vehemently does not concede, draws a sharp contrast between himself and another potential 2028 Democratic presidential contender, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), who swiftly persuaded his state’s legislators and voters to redraw five more Democratic-leaning seats.” Ready to ‘kick some ass’: Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) is skipping formalities in her Senate run campaign strategy, CNN’s Arlette Saenz writes. “For the last 30 years, we’ve tried it the traditional way, and it’s not worked. And the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over,” Crockett told CNN after an event in Conroe, Texas. “In this moment, there is nothing traditional about how our government is operating, and so I think that people are looking for something different.” 8. IMMIGRATION FILES: The number of judges in immigration courts across the country have shrunk by a quarter compared to last year, NPR’s Anusha Mathur and Ximena Bustillo report. Following the Trump administration’s firing of nearly 100 judges last year, resignations have also contributed to this count. “Some former judges call this a shrinkage of America's immigration courts that sends a clear message from the Trump administration: to green-light mass deportations, and get rid of the judges they think stand in the way,” per NPR.
| | | | A message from AHIP:  
| | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | WEATHER WATCH — The snowstorm slamming the East Coast brushed D.C. last night — with the amount varying from heavy wet snow in some areas and a lighter dusting in others, per Capital Weather Gang. But the storm has hit airports hard — expect travel disruptions and some airport closures the further north you go, per Bloomberg. BIDEN, AGAIN — “Biden, aides project optimism in cancer fight, but some close friends worry,” by WaPo’s Yasmeen Abutaleb: “Biden has been encouraged as he has gone through treatment and aides said the former president is doing as well as they could hope … But the people, including two former Biden officials and an elected Democrat, said he has at times appeared more fatigued in private interactions over the past several weeks.” ALL IN THE FAMILY — Eric Trump announced that the Trump Organization’s newest venture will be “the tallest building in Australia” — a new Trump International Hotel & Tower in the country’s Gold Coast. IN MEMORIAM — “Susan Sheehan, Chronicler of Lives on the Margins, Dies at 88,” by NYT’s Trip Gabriel: “Susan Sheehan, a Pulitzer-winning nonfiction writer whose meticulously built-up portraits of individuals trying to endure on the margins of society originally appeared in The New Yorker, and often were published later as books, died on Tuesday at her home in Washington. She was 88.” OUT AND ABOUT — Double Tap Democracy, Live Urban Nation and Social Curiosity Lab gathered in Atlanta last night to launch their alliances ahead of the midterms. SPOTTED: California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Stacey Abrams and Usher. MEDIA MOVE — Zach Cohen is rejoining Bloomberg Government as a senior budget reporter. He most recently was a reporter for Bloomberg Tax. ENGAGED — Brian Herman, regional finance director at the RNC, and Jessica Kaplan, a senior campaign executive at the Jewish National Fund, got engaged on Saturday at Founders Park in Old Town, Alexandria. They met while sitting on the couch at a mutual friend’s apartment watching football in 2024. Pic … Another pic Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross. Correction: Friday’s Playbook PM misstated which news organization Kelsey Ables works for. It is the Washington Post.
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