| | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray Good Sunday morning. This is Eli Okun, the Playbook team’s resident movie lover, still smarting over the Academy blanking “No Other Choice” but excited for the Oscars — which feature an unusually high number of tossup races in the top categories. Tell me your favorite movies of 2025 or your gutsiest predictions for tonight: eokun@politico.com.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
Will tonight’s Academy Awards make for a big political story or steer clear of hot-button issues? | Gregory Bull/AP | HOLLYWOODLAND: Movies may occupy a declining share of the cultural landscape, but glitzy awards shows still sometimes break through this time of year with watercooler moments or provocations (think the slap or envelope-gate). Will tonight’s Academy Awards make for a big political story like the right-wing agita — and subsequent backlash — over Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl halftime show last month? There’s a long history of the Oscars mixing it up politically, from Marlon Brando’s 1973 refusal of his Best Actor win to Richard Gere’s surprise plea for Tibet two decades later. President Donald Trump, naturally, has weighed in often: He didn’t like “Parasite” becoming the first foreign-language film to take Best Picture and slammed the Oscars as too “politically correct” in 2021. Even in a time of broad backlash among Trump’s opponents to his war with Iran and aggressive immigration crackdown, there’s no guarantee that tonight’s speeches will get very political. Any of the honorees could reprise Michael Moore’s controversial 2003 speech against the Iraq War days after it began (as the NYT recently recounted) or Meryl Streep’s Golden Globes condemnation of Trump right before his 2017 inauguration. But this awards season so far has actually been relatively light on politics, much like last year’s Oscars. Conan O’Brien, who is generally skeptical of comedy about Trump, is returning as host. And he said this week that his “job is to always try and hit this very, very thin line, I think, between entertaining people and also acknowledging some of the realities.” Daniel Miller, POLITICO’s new reporter covering the intersection of Hollywood and politics, writes in from Los Angeles: “How political will the Academy Awards be amid an unpopular war and a litany of other crises? That’s what many in Hollywood will be monitoring when the Oscars begin on what is expected to be an unseasonably hot afternoon in Los Angeles. “Two Best Picture front-runners — ‘One Battle After Another’ and ‘Sinners’ — are highly political, which would give winners the chance to take a stand in their speeches from the Dolby Theatre stage. But don’t expect a protest to break out on the Dolby stage. “If there’s anyone who has a sense of how things might play out, it is comedian Bruce Vilanch, who has written for at least 25 Academy Awards telecasts. He told me that he expected O’Brien to discuss the turbulent state of affairs, but in a manner that would ‘take the seriousness out of it for a minute’ — and in a nonpartisan way. “Vilanch said that O’Brien might focus on what is expected to be heightened security at the Oscars, owing to the possible threat of West Coast drone strikes by Iran. ‘You can deflect it that way,’ said Vilanch, before suggesting a joke. ‘You know, it’s like, “It was so exciting, they were lining up to watch Timothée Chalamet get a cavity search.”’”
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Learn more. | | | | The movies: Politics is certainly woven into the fabric of many of the year’s top films. “One Battle After Another” centers on a group of far-left revolutionaries, charting through time how their ideals mellow, get crushed by the state or reinvigorate in the next generation. (Plus an underground railroad of sorts for Latino immigrants and a white supremacist cabal.) It’s in a tight race for Best Picture with “Sinners,” which refracts racial dynamics in the Jim Crow-era Mississippi Delta through vampiric bloodlust and a kind of musical tesseract. Fellow nominee “The Secret Agent” tracks a dissident under Brazil’s military dictatorship in the 1970s. Its star Wagner Moura — nominated in a rare Best Actor race where each of the five men has a plausible path to victory — has been unafraid to draw parallels to the present day. (Listen to his 2024 conversation on our “Playbook Deep Dive” podcast, talking about the role of art in politics.) In Best Supporting Actor, the often outspoken Sean Penn from “One Battle” could win his third Oscar for playing the villainous Col. Steven J. Lockjaw, likened by some Trump critics to Gregory Bovino. Penn gave one of his previous statues to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, María Corina Machado-style. And no one tonight will have a more personal connection to the war with Iran than director Jafar Panahi. The Iranian auteur is a double nominee in Original Screenplay and International Feature for “It Was Just an Accident.” Though he’s an underdog in each category, his drama about former political prisoners considering revenge speaks directly to the present moment — not least because in December, Panahi was sentenced in absentia to prison again for “propaganda activities against the regime.” Domestic and international politics are nipping around the edges of this year’s Oscars in other ways, too. The documentary categories are stacked with politically relevant entries. Two of the frontrunners — feature “The Perfect Neighbor” and short “All the Empty Rooms” — highlight stand-your-ground laws and school shootings, respectively. And Trump’s travel ban has blocked one of the stars of “The Voice of Hind Rajab,” an International Feature nominee about a girl during the Gaza war, from getting to the U.S. because he’s Palestinian, Motaz Malhees said. Hovering in the background: What much of Hollywood is really focused on is Paramount Skydance’s acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery — to say nothing of potentially existential fears around the rise of artificial intelligence. California AG Rob Bonta said he’ll apply tough scrutiny to the merger, which would reshape the studio landscape and has alarmed the Teamsters over the prospect of consolidation and widespread layoffs. The deal is before the Justice Department for antitrust review, but the Trump administration is expected to give its stamp of approval (and bring CNN under the purview of the Trump-allied Ellison family). Cash dash: Hollywood, of course, is also a major donor base for Democrats, but the flow dried up somewhat during the party’s post-2024 period in the political wilderness. Of late, though, “Hollywood is falling in love with its Democrats again,” with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro the latest big name to work the circuit, The Ankler’s Matthew Frank reports. There’s donor excitement about Texas state Rep. James Talarico, too.
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| | | | SUNDAY BEST … — Energy Secretary Chris Wright on whether the war will be over in a few weeks, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “I think that’s the likely timeframe, yes. … After the conflict is over, you’ll start to see prices come back down … [It’s] a short-term disruption to the flow of energy. Americans are feeling it right now. Americans will feel it for a few more weeks. But at the end, we will have removed the greatest risk to global energy supplies. We’ll go to a world more abundant in energy, more affordable in energy, and less risky for American soldiers and commerce in the Middle East.” — U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Mike Waltz on whether the U.S. will attack oil facilities on Kharg Island, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “I would certainly think he would maintain that optionality if he wants to take down their energy infrastructure. But we have to take a step back … Look at what they’re trying to do in terms of constraining the world’s economy with drones and boats. One could only imagine if they had a nuclear arsenal or if they had a nuclear weapon. That’s what many of these Gulf Arab countries have woken up to.” — Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.) on whether the war has made Americans safer, on ABC’s “This Week”: “It certainly doesn’t seem likely at this point, when you look at Americans basically fleeing the Middle East. Certainly we’ve already lost 13 service members. We’ve seen those domestic attacks ramp up. … We’re seeing Iraq basically explode. Americans are being asked to completely leave Iraq … The Strait of Hormuz obviously is now shut down. All of this was predictable. The cost of this war outweighs the benefits.” — Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) on the DHS shutdown, on “Fox News Sunday”: “The idea of shutting down the Department of Homeland Security at such a high terror threat level is unconscionable. And I think it’s political malpractice, it is criminal, and [Democrats are] going to have, if they continue this … they will have blood on their hands.” TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.
- “Bill Clinton’s Philanthropic Legacy: An Appraisal,” by David Callahan for HistPhil
- “I Went to Florida to See the 31-Year-Old Candidate Thrilling Gen Z. We’re in Trouble,” by NYT’s Michelle Goldberg
- “The Abortion Industry Simply Changed Tactics. Now Congress Must Act,” by Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) in the Daily Wire
- “An Achievable Goal in Iran,” by Dennis Ross in The Atlantic
- “How Trump’s War on Iran Is Hastening the Coming MAGA Crack-Up,” by The New Republic’s Greg Sargent
- “Democrats Dunking on a Middle-Class Tax Cut Are Wrong,” by The Permanent Campaign’s Stef Feldman
- “How Minnesota Beat Trump,” by NYT’s Thomas Friedman
- “For Trump to Win the War on Fraud, States Must Be Held Accountable,” by Tyler Turman for National Review
- “Why are Americans ‘Chinamaxxing’? Look in the mirror,” by Irene Zhang for WaPo
- “The youth crime wave in a wealthy DC suburb,” by the Washington Examiner’s Timothy Carney
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| | | | 9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR 1. WAR REPORT: Fallout from the U.S.-Israel war with Iran continues to expand as it enters its third week. The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad said it had come under attack from Iranian-backed militias again and urged all Americans to leave Iraq. Trump also publicly called on other major countries to step in and help secure the Strait of Hormuz so that shipping of oil and other products could safely resume, though as of this morning the rest of the world’s response has been muted, per the WSJ. Defiant, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said yesterday that it controls the strait and “any attempt to move or transit will be targeted.” What Trump is thinking: The president told NBC’s Kristen Welker that “Iran wants to make a deal, and I don’t want to make it because the terms aren’t good enough yet.” He also escalated his rhetoric about Kharg Island, Iran’s oil export hub, warning that after the initial attacks on military targets, the U.S. “may hit it a few more times just for fun.” That followed reporting from Reuters’ Steve Holland and colleagues that both the U.S. and Iran have dismissed efforts by other countries to begin ceasefire talks, instead digging in to keep fighting. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” this morning “there is nothing on the table right now.” Latest on the ground: Overnight, there were new strikes on Bahrain, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, though Israel said the pace of Iranian attacks has slowed since the U.S. and Israel have degraded its capabilities. Israel also launched new waves of heavy strikes across Iran and Lebanon. But Israel’s stock of ballistic missile interceptors has dwindled to critically low levels, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott scooped; Israel denied the reporting. And the imminent arrival of 2,500 more Marines could open up “a new phase” of more rapid raids around the strait, NYT’s Thomas Gibbons-Neff and Eric Schmitt report. The human toll: The U.S. released the names of the six service members who died in a plane crash in Iraq: Maj. Alex Klinner, Capt. Ariana Savino, Tech. Sgt. Ashley Pruitt, Capt. Seth Koval, Capt. Curtis Angst and Tech. Sgt. Tyler Simmons, all in their late 20s and 30s. AP’s David Lieb and colleagues report on some of their stories and the heartbroken families they leave behind. Family matters: CBS’ Jennifer Jacobs scooped that U.S. intelligence shows some remarkable concerns that the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had about his son, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. The elder Khamenei worried that the younger, who has now replaced him, was “perceived as not very bright … unqualified … [and] had issues in his personal life.”
| | | | POLITICO Policy Outlook: Powering 6G The next generation of mobile communications technology — commonly known as 6G — promises to unlock a bold new digital future. On Wednesday, March 18, POLITICO will convene decision makers from government and industry for incisive conversations that explore what’s next for the 6G rollout — and what stands in the way. Register now to join us. | | | | | 2. FIRST AMENDMENT WATCH: FCC Chair Brendan Carr escalated his threats against the news media, warning that he may cancel broadcasters’ licenses if they don’t change the tenor of their war coverage, per Bloomberg. Carr said outlets “running hoaxes and news distortions — also known as the fake news — have a chance now to correct course,” in the wake of Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth criticizing CNN, the WSJ and others. Carr followed up on his X post, which provoked outrage from Democrats and free-speech advocates, by telling CBS’ Kristin Brown and Willie James Inman that broadcast licenses aren’t “some sort of property right” that can’t be lost. “There is a public interest, and broadcast is different.” But but but: In reality, it would be very difficult for Carr to win a legal battle if he tries to block a license renewal, CNN’s Brian Stelter writes. Critics are more worried about a chilling effect. 3. THE NEW WORLD ORDER: “Poll: Trump era tilts US allies toward Beijing,” by POLITICO’s Phelim Kine and Jordyn Dahl: “Swaths of the public in Canada, Germany, France and the U.K. have soured on the U.S., driven by President Donald Trump’s foreign policy decisions, according to recent results from The POLITICO Poll. Respondents in these countries increasingly see China as a more dependable partner than the U.S. … Critically, Europeans surveyed see it as possible to reduce reliance on the U.S. but harder to reduce reliance on China.” 4. IN THE DARK, PART I: As the administration pursues its mass deportation campaign, it has pulled back on providing public government data about immigration enforcement, AP’s Rebecca Santana reports. The numbers have become more difficult to access and in some cases haven’t been updated in many months, as the administration fired civil servants and took down some datasets. The immigration numbers that do get publicized, often in press releases, “are inconsistent and unverifiable,” leading to criticism from groups on both the left and right that want to push Trump on deportations. DHS responded that they “release new data multiple times a week,” while not addressing specific questions about the data they’ve stopped releasing. 5. IN THE DARK, PART II: “Did Trump cuts slow access to public records? We found 26 cases that say yes,” by WaPo’s Nate Jones: “As hundreds of thousands of federal employees were fired or chose to leave the government last year, FOIA requesters — myself included — wondered: Would these personnel reductions further undermine the federal government’s already strained ability to follow federal law and disclose public records when requested under FOIA? The answer, we now know, is a resounding yes. Attorneys for at least 13 agencies and departments have explicitly stated in 26 FOIA lawsuits that the downsizings were the reasons for failures to meet FOIA deadlines.”
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Learn more. | | | | 6. BRANDON HERRERA’S WORLD: “In Texas, an Unyielding Gun Culture Jumps Off YouTube and Into Politics,” by NYT’s Charles Homans and Thomas Gibbons-Neff: “He is a celebrity in a new gun culture that has grown in prominence over the past decade, centered around younger generations and fueled by social media, video games and a booming consumer market for military-style firearms. Its best-known figures … fuse the more-is-more ethos of popular YouTube entertainers with Second Amendment views that go well beyond the National Rifle Association in their absolutism. This culture, frequently short-handed as ‘gun culture 2.0,’ is untested as a political force. But it is increasingly filling a vacuum in gun-rights advocacy.” 7. TRADING SPACES: After the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s initial rationale for major tariffs around the world, his new sets of levies will likely be harder for challengers to defeat in court, POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein reports. Democratic state leaders are already fighting the new tariffs, but now Trump has time on his side, and challengers will have to convince judges that Trump was wrong to determine the U.S. faces a major “balance-of-payments deficit.” 8. PULLING BACK THE CURTAIN IN VENEZUELA: “He Was Chevron’s Man in Venezuela — and a CIA Informant,” by WSJ’s Joel Schectman and colleagues: “Former Chevron executive Ali Moshiri told the agency [last year] that if the U.S. government tried to oust the entire [Nicolás] Maduro regime and install the democratic opposition led by María Corina Machado it would have another quagmire like Iraq on its hands … His recommendation: Stick for now with another autocratic leftist, Maduro’s longtime deputy and economic manager Delcy Rodríguez. … Moshiri’s hidden hand in Washington spycraft … offers a window into how Trump embraced the energy industry’s unsentimental playbook for dealing with autocratic regimes.” Milestone moment: The U.S. Embassy in Caracas raised an American flag yesterday for the first time in seven years, per the AP. 9. ENDORSEMENT WATCH: Trump is still holding off on backing either Sen. John Cornyn or AG Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate GOP runoff, telling Welker that he may decide in the next week but thinks either will win in November. “A lot has to do with the SAVE America Act,” he emphasized. And though establishment Republicans are urging Trump to stick with Cornyn, activists have responded with “the most unified, intense, in-his-face MAGA campaign yet” to get Trump on board with Paxton, Axios’ Alex Isenstadt reports.
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➡️ Get on the Invite List | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | KENNEDY CENTER LATEST — Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio) has to be allowed to attend a Kennedy Center board meeting tomorrow at the White House about the two-year closure of the institution, a federal judge ruled yesterday, per NBC. He also ruled that she be given more information about the plans before the meeting. But it was revealed last week that Beatty actually had been invited — and had simply missed the email because it went to her spam folder. The judge sounded skeptical that Beatty should necessarily get to vote at the meeting; he didn’t rule yet on her effort to stop the closure altogether. The boys are fighting: Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) accused the administration of closing the center for renovations as a “cover-up” for poor stewardship and politicization that had driven down business. Departing leader Richard Grenell fired back: “Your buffoonery knows no limits. You sat silent while the place went into total disrepair. … We are fixing the place that YOU ruined. It becomes a construction site for two years because you failed to keep up with the maintenance.” The look back: “Richard Grenell’s scorched-earth term at Trump’s Kennedy Center,” by WaPo’s Geoff Edgers PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — DC Water said yesterday that the Potomac Interceptor, the major sewage pipe that spewed waste into the Potomac in one of the country’s worst-ever spills, has now been fully repaired and is back online, per AP’s Gary Fields and Fatima Hussein. PLAYBOOK DESIGN SECTION — “Appointee wants to replace White House columns with the ones Trump prefers,” by WaPo’s Dan Diamond and Aaron Steckelberg: “For nearly two centuries, the White House’s main entrance — framed by a row of graceful Ionic columns — has been a signature image of the seat of American power. Now the Trump-appointed head of a federal arts commission is proposing to replace them with a more ornate [Corinthian] style favored by President Donald Trump.” HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Special envoy Steve Witkoff … Reps. Jason Crow (D-Colo.) (favorite cake: red velvet with cream cheese icing), Morgan Griffith (R-Va.) and Mike Haridopolos (R-Fla.) … Kevin Munoz … Lenny Alcivar … Brendan Buck … House Judiciary’s Nadgey Louis-Charles … George Holman … former Sen. Ted Kaufman (D-Del.) … POLITICO’s Jason Wermers and Kendall Ross … Mallory Culhane … Megan Uhrich … Franklin Davis … Amanda Broun … Kate Dickens of S-3 Group … Patrick Dellinger of FlexPoint Media … Suzanne Smalley … Lauren Marshall of FGS Global … Joe Carapiet … Ariel Hill-Davis … former West Virginia Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin … Tom Baer … Josh Deckard … Dean Rosen of Mehlman Consulting … John Bozzella of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation … Jennifer 8. Lee … NYT’s Sopan Deb … Rachel Schindler … Marcus Weisgerber … Natalie D’Apolito of the American Cleaning Institute … Doug Calidas of Americans for Responsible Innovation … Svante Myrick … Mark J. Green … Jack Limper … Rebecca Graff … Solvay’s Ariel Hill-Davis Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.
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