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By Adam Wren |
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With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray Good Saturday morning. It’s Adam Wren, writing to you amid a slate of kids’ soccer games and birthday parties, and realizing why the Instagram moms call it Maycember. Solidarity to all you other parents. Get in touch.
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DRIVING THE DAY |
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As Bill Cassidy fights for his political life, he’s refusing to acknowledge the political gravity surrounding him. Five years after he cast a vote to convict President Donald Trump in his impeachment trial over Trump’s election denialism and the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, Cassidy is facing a challenge from Trump-backed Rep. Julia Letlow (R-La.) and State Treasurer John Fleming (R-La.) in a crucial Louisiana primary today that marks the next stop on Trump’s revenge tour. In an interview with Playbook this morning, Cassidy sounded disconnected from the reality he faces, frequently referring only to Letlow as “my opponent” while ignoring Fleming, and complaining about the state’s shift to a closed party primary back in 2024. If Trump’s push to oust Cassidy succeeds, it could unleash another rogue in the Senate with a vendetta against Trump and nothing left to lose. But Cassidy claims he’s not thinking about that. Asked whether he would be a thorn in Trump’s side in his remaining months in office should he go down and join other YOLO Republicans, Cassidy sounded defiant. “I’m going to win today,” Cassidy said. “I may go into a runoff. But I’m always going to vote for the good of my country and my people.” If no candidate clears 50 percent in today’s vote, the top two candidates will advance to a June 27 runoff. Recent polls show a tight three-way campaign. Most polling puts Cassidy in third place, behind Letlow and Fleming, another MAGA candidate, POLITICO’s Liz Crampton writes this morning. Despite Cassidy’s resoluteness, GOP sources in Louisiana see an increasingly bleak outlook for Cassidy — no matter where he finishes at the end of the day. “There is almost a 0.0 percent chance that Bill Cassidy is coming back to the Senate,” an unaligned GOP strategist with experience running races in Louisiana and granted anonymity to assess the state of play candidly told Playbook. “He’s run a lot of ads,” the person said, “and the problem with his ads is he's in them.” Cassidy has faced an uphill battle from both ends of the party. He was ostracized by the Louisiana Republican Party following his impeachment vote. And Trump has continually slammed him as “very disloyal” and urged Louisiana Republicans to vote him out. “The Cassidy campaign has said it is well aware of the challenges confronting them, but they remain confident about the senator’s chances given his record in Congress,” Crampton reports. “Cassidy Campaign Manager Mark Harris said this week that their data shows the incumbent will likely not finish first but is in a good position to qualify for the run-off, thanks in part to a high number of non-party voters casting ballots in Louisiana’s closed primary.” “It's sort of Julia's to lose in the first round,” Harris told Liz. “Our data indicates we have a very strong chance to put together a winning coalition, and then [win] in the run-off.” Cassidy spoke with Playbook by phone this morning before he made his Election Day rounds after attending a wedding Friday evening. He talked of his plans to improve affordability and criticized Letlow for not voting for the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. “I don't quite know why, but it takes courage, and so you got to know what's right, and then you got to have the courage to do what's right, and that's what I have,” Cassidy said. “I've proven it. That's what this race is about.” But in the final hours before results roll in, the senator who drew Trump’s ire over his impeachment vote was the one crying foul over voting issues. Cassidy echoed his concerns about Louisiana’s move to a closed primary system, telling Playbook he had just gotten off the phone with a “No Party” voter who tried to cast a ballot for him but said he could not. Cassidy said he’s communicating with Louisiana Secretary of State Nancy Landy, who he said is investigating. A spokesperson did not immediately respond to a Playbook request for comment. “Today, I'm trying to make sure that people are able to exercise their right to vote … in a system which, in effect, has been designed to prevent people from being able to cast their vote for me,” Cassidy said.
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It’s not just his impeachment vote at play today. Cassidy has rankled the MAGA faithful — and the emerging Make America Healthy Again coalition — by consistently pushing back on HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s vaccine agenda and helping to block the nomination of health influencer Casey Means to be Surgeon General. MAHA has responded in kind. The Kennedy-aligned MAHA PAC pledged to spend $1 million on Letlow’s behalf to oust Cassidy — though the influence of its spending remains to be seen. And so today’s primary will offer a window into the MAHA movement’s political firepower, too. “Kennedy’s MAHA forces will celebrate if Cassidy goes down not only because it’ll mean Kennedy’s chief GOP nemesis is leaving the Senate, but because two of Cassidy’s likely replacements atop the health committee, Republican Sens. Rand Paul of Kentucky and Roger Marshall of Kansas, are both MAHA devotees,” POLITICO’s health editor Shawn Zeller writes in to Playbook. “If Letlow were to lose, it’ll not only show that Trump’s endorsement isn’t the be-all-end-all, but that MAHA isn’t the political force the White House hopes it is.” Cassidy brushed off a question about MAHA’s role in today’s primary. “People in our state want someone who has delivered,” he said. “If you're talking about ‘Making America Healthy Again,’ my gosh, I've worked to make my state healthy again. And so if people are concerned about our state being healthier, then I'm your candidate.” So five years on, does he stand by his impeachment vote? “That is not something I think about,” Cassidy said. “If my opponent is focused on that, she's thinking about five years ago. I'm thinking about five years from now. If she wants to be wedded to the past, be wedded in the past, but by golly, you're not working for the future. I'm working for the future, that's where I'm focused.”
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5 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW |
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1. DOUBLING DOWN: Trump doesn’t regret saying that he doesn’t think about Americans’ financial situations “even a little bit” when it comes to the war with Iran. He called it “a perfect statement” in an interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier last night, adding he’d “make it again.” Trump is returning home from Beijing to spiking inflation and voter concerns about affordability. The White House is weighing how to proceed with an executive order easing tariffs on beef to bring down its price — a move that risks angering American ranchers and the lawmakers who represent them. More from POLITICO’s Myah Ward, Grace Yarrow and Daniel Desrochers 2. FOR YOUR RADAR: American and Nigerian forces last night killed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, a senior Islamic State commander, Trump said in a post on Truth Social. “He will no longer terrorize the people of Africa, or help plan operations to target Americans,” the president said. “With his removal, ISIS’s global operation is greatly diminished.” More from AP 3. THE POLITICO POLL: Israel is driving a growing rift in the Republican Party between the president’s base and the non-MAGA portion of the coalition, according to the latest POLITICO Poll. Nearly half of self-identified MAGA Trump voters say they back Israel and approve of the actions of its current government — compared to 29 percent of non-MAGA Trump voters. A plurality of MAGA voters (41 percent) say Israel is justified in its military campaign in Gaza, compared with 31 percent of non-MAGA voters. And 24 percent of MAGA voters say it was initially justified but has gone too far, compared with 31 percent of non-MAGA voters. 4. MIDWEST BLITZ: Republicans in the Midwest are calling for VP JD Vance to stump in their states and sell voters on the party’s domestic agenda ahead of a tough midterm contest, POLITICO’s Diana Nerozzi reports. The White House confirmed Trump and Vance will make more stops in the Midwest in the coming months — starting with Kansas City, Missouri, where the VP will speak about manufacturing on Monday. 5. THE BENCH MUSCLES THROUGH THE MIDTERMS: The Bench is suddenly among the ascendant Democratic primary kingmakers. The upstart political group is a perfect four-for-four in the contested primaries in which it has endorsed, including a few underdogs. Its latest victory came in Nebraska’s so-called “blue dot” primary, as activist Denise Powell came from 26 points down to beat state Sen. John Cavanaugh by 2 points. The Bench also successfully backed James Talarico and Bobby Pulido in Texas and Jamie Ager in North Carolina. But the group faces a series of contests that will test its influence and ability to pick winners. The first comes with Bob Brooks, who’s locked in a four-way primary in Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District on Tuesday. On June 2, Josh Turek and Sarah Trone Garriott will put the record on the line in Iowa, while Sam Forstag does the same in Montana. And then there’s Michigan’s three-way Senate primary, where The Bench endorsed Mallory McMorrow, who has led the field in fundraising in the tight race. But as it picks sides, The Bench is also picking fights and making some enemies. “Success has a thousand fathers and there were a lot of groups involved in these campaigns — there's no way The Bench gets credit for all of these,” said one national Democratic strategist skeptical of the group’s victory lap. “They’re about to fall on their face in Michigan in a big way, either catastrophically if [Abdul] El-Sayed wins or embarrassingly if [Rep. Haley] Stevens wins.” Andrew Mamo, a spokesperson for The Bench, said they’re making smart bets. “State by state, our early investment and deep support are helping candidates win tough primaries, compete in places Democrats too often write off, and build a party that actually looks and sounds like the country it’s supposed to represent,” he said.
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POLITICO Live Event Join the POLITICO California Agenda: Los Angeles event on May 20 for an exclusive gathering of policymakers, business leaders and key decision-makers shaping the city’s future. The program will feature timely on-stage conversations, followed by networking over drinks and bites. Request to attend here. |
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CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 17 funnies
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RJ Matson/cagle.com |
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A message from L’Orรฉal Groupe:  
Roosevelt is a veteran, grandfather, and Processing Team Lead at L’Orรฉal. Learn more. |
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GREAT WEEKEND READS: — “The Wildfire-Fighting Union Leader Who Could Change Montana Politics,” by Cassidy Randall for Esquire: “Sam Forstag made a career of parachuting into forest fires. As Democrats fight to win races in solidly red districts, could a man who has dedicated his life to the most dangerous kind of public service signal a new way forward?” — “The Silence That Meets the Rape of Palestinians,” by NYT Opinion’s Nicholas Kristof: “[I]n wrenching interviews, Palestinians have recounted to me a pattern of widespread Israeli sexual violence against men, women and even children — by soldiers, settlers, interrogators in the Shin Bet internal security agency and, above all, prison guards.” — “Trump officials, billionaires and the quiet reshaping of America’s public lands,” by Floodlight’s Evan Simon and Ames Alexander: “A controversial land swap orchestrated by the megarich could be ‘a harbinger of what’s to come’ for public lands under Trump.” — “The Men Who Want Women to Be Quiet,” by The Atlantic’s Helen Lewis: “A virulent form of misogyny has become the single most important force holding together the American right.” — “Where Was Nurul Amin Shah Alam?” by NYT’s Dan Barry: “A refugee with little sight and no English, he had been jailed for a year, intercepted by federal agents and delivered to a merciless Buffalo winter.”
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POLITICO Pro Policy challenges are evolving — and the stakes keep rising. POLITICO Pro delivers authoritative reporting, expert analysis, and powerful tools to help professionals understand and anticipate the business of government, in Washington and beyond. Learn More about POLITICO Pro. |
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TALK OF THE TOWN |
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BALLROOM BLITZ — Republican lawmakers last night decided to redraft the portion of their immigration enforcement bill that would direct roughly $220 million in security funding to “hardening” parts of Trump’s White House ballroom, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney reports. RAISING THE STAKES — Rep. LaMonica McIver (D-N.J.), who is charged with assaulting federal officers outside a New Jersey immigration detention facility and could face up to 17 years in prison, told People Magazine she is pregnant. “I don’t want to be just remembered as LaMonica McIver, the congresswoman,” she said. “I want to be remembered as LaMonica McIver, the mother of two beautiful children at home.” FOR YOUR RADAR — “NPR Podcast Host Exits Amid Workplace Investigation,” by NYT’s Benjamin Mullin: “Ramtin Arablouei, a co-host of “Throughline,” left the network after an employee … on the show said he had behaved inappropriately toward her and made an offensive remark during a team meeting. … Heather Walls, an NPR spokeswoman, said in a statement that ‘any concerns raised through appropriate channels are reviewed carefully.’ … Mr. Arablouei did not respond to messages asking about his departure.” HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Lois Frankel (D-Fla.) and Dwight Evans (D-Pa.) … Tucker Carlson … Dan Coats … POLITICO’s Suzie Steenberge … Minyon Moore … FTI Consulting’s Jeff Bechdel … Bobby Frederick … Elias Law Group’s Kate Keane … Andrew Mamo … PBS’ Sara Just … Bradley Bottoms … Emily Aden … Snap’s Jodi Seth … JoDee Winterhof … former Rep. Jim Moran (D-Va.) … Jay Perron … Brookings’ Michael O’Hanlon … Jake Sticka … Andie Pivarunas … Marissa Lorenzetti of the Madison Group … Patrick Delaney … Olivia Kelley Delgado … Rob Legare … Michael Wear … Adรกn Serna of Sen. Ben Ray Lujรกn’s (D-N.M.) office … Christine Delargy … David Meadvin … Susan Ariel Aaronson … Danny Goldberg … Fallon Moore of Be Clear Communications THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here): CBS “Face the Nation”: U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer … Taiwanese Ambassador Alexander Yui … Robert Gates … Anthony Salvanto. Panel: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) and Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.). NBC “Meet the Press”: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) … Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) … James Comey. Panel: Lanhee Chen, Adrienne Elrod and Ryan Nobles. FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Speaker Mike Johnson … Amy Grant. Panel: Rachel Campos-Duffy, Mark Walker and Roger Zakheim. CNN “State of the Union”: Pete Buttigieg … Neil deGrasse Tyson. Panel: Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) and Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.) Sean Spicer and Xochitl Hinojosa. ABC “This Week”: Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) … Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) … U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Panel: Donna Brazile, Chris Christie, Sarah Isgur and Michelle Cottle. MS NOW “The Weekend: Primetime”: Rep. Rob Menendez (D-N.J.) ... Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) ... Stacey Abrams. NewsNation “The Hill Sunday”: Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.). Panel: Molly Ball, Paul Kane and Megan McArdle. Fox News “Sunday Morning Futures”: Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) … AAG Todd Blanche … Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) … Jeffrey Sprecher … Jeffrey Gundlach. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.
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