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By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns |
Presented by |
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With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Adam Wren discuss Democrats’ response to the war in Iran, and whether their own divisions on Middle East policy could cost them.
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Good Thursday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, currently reading how tipping levels in D.C. — per the latest data from Toast — are among the lowest in the country, second only to California. What’s up, D.C.? Service charges? I-82? Let me know. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The worst job in Washington: To outside eyes, being President Donald Trump’s attorney general might look like the worst gig going, with the president piling on the pressure for vindictive prosecutions and ready to drop those who fail. But this is politics! And so a madcap scramble to succeed Pam Bondi is already underway. The jockeying to be Trump’s next AG is on full display via new reporting from POLITICO’s Myah Ward, Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein. “Bondi’s ouster has uncorked long-simmering disputes among powerhouse lawyers who spent years in the trenches for Trump and his allies,” they write. “Those battles forged allegiances that are now driving the backroom politicking to lead a department already in turmoil, hemorrhaging veteran prosecutors and facing credibility concerns in the courts. And there’s more: “It’s not just about who will be the next attorney general,” Myah and co. write. “It’s also a referendum on which of the many factions within Trump’s uneasy coalition will emerge as the dominant force inside the most scrutinized Cabinet department of his second term.” Read the full report In today’s Playbook … — Why NATO could be the defining issue of Trump’s presidency. — How Dem 2028ers hope to capitalize on the Iran war. — And JMart’s take on two more Senate races you should watch.
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DRIVING THE DAY |
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THE CEASEFIRE THAT WASN’T: It’s the second day of the ceasefire. Israel is still bombing Lebanon, killing nearly 200 people in downtown Beirut yesterday. (The AP’s on-the-ground report and pics are truly harrowing.) Hezbollah is firing rockets straight back. The Strait of Hormuz is still highly restricted, with Iran charging crypto fees for limited access. And there’s no clarity at all on Iran’s nuclear material. The White House insists it’s all going well — though Trump made clear last night the U.S. military remains on standby should it be required. But today the focus is on NATO, where enormous red flashing lights are going off all over the dashboard. It’s easy to become immune to Trump’s NATO-bashing because it’s been going on so long. But what’s happened over the past 14 months is very different. What’s happened since the start of the year is seismic. It’s too early to call it definitively — the leaks will likely come in the hours ahead — but it’s pretty clear yesterday’s talks between Trump and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte didn’t go well. They’ve met six times over the past 13 months and prior to today, every meeting has been a mutual love-in before the TV cameras — relaxed, chatty, packed with (sometimes toe-curling) mutual praise. Not this time. Rutte spent nearly two-and-a-half hours with Trump in the White House amid a media blackout. The press pool did not see him arrive or leave. Afterward, Rutte told CNN’s Jake Tapper he’d tried to convince the president “the vast majority” of European allies have been supportive on Iran — but gave no indication the argument landed. “It was a very frank, a very open discussion,” Rutte said. “[Trump] clearly told me what he thought of what happened over the last couple of weeks.” ‘Bye-bye’: White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt revealed earlier she expected Trump to raise the prospect of America leaving NATO when he met with Rutte. Twice Tapper pressed the NATO chief on whether the president had done so, and twice Rutte sidestepped the question. And soon after the meeting wrapped, Trump was on Truth Social, laying into NATO again. Trump cannot formally withdraw from NATO without congressional consent — but he can pull the rug out from beneath the alliance easily enough. WSJ’s Annie Linskey and Robbie Gramer sniffed out one of the options being considered — the redeployment of U.S. troops away from NATO countries deemed unhelpful, to support other allies instead. You’d imagine socialist-led Spain — refusing U.S. access to its bases, refusing to even try to hit Trump’s treasured 5 percent funding target — would top Trump’s list. For doomster-minded NATO leaders, the redeployment of U.S. troops within the alliance might feel like a win at this point. But in truth, the damage is done. NATO is essentially a confidence trick — it’s worked for 80 years because successive Russian leaders have been left with no doubt that an attack on a single member in Europe would be treated as an attack on America. That certainty is gone, regardless of what Trump does next.
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Some on the left talk wistfully about rebuilding old alliances once a Democrat regains the White House, but Europe is moving on. It would appear a tall task for a future Democratic or traditionally minded Republican president, elected on a four-year term, to convince a traumatized continent that the old America is back. U.S. politics is not about to become less volatile. European leaders are increasingly convinced they must build a solo future. Politically, this is a non-issue in the U.S. A majority of Americans still support NATO, but it’s become as polarized as everything else — far more popular with Democratic supporters than with Republicans. It’s not going to win over undecided voters in swing states. Plenty on the American right would cheer its demise. But the long-term repercussions of this shift will be huge; perhaps the most globally significant of Trump’s entire second term. NATO has been the living, breathing embodiment of American hegemony since 1949. A world without it, or with a very different version of it, especially with a fast-rising China, is hard to imagine. We’ll be feeling the tremors for years to come. The saving grace for Rutte could yet be found in the Middle East. A group of NATO and allied members led by British PM Keir Starmer have been discussing how to reopen the Strait of Hormuz once the bombing ended. Bloomberg’s Andrea Palasciano reports at yesterday’s meeting, the Trump administration requested detailed plans for NATO support within a matter of days. If there’s a quick route back into Trump’s good graces, this appears to be it. BUT THAT REQUIRES THE CEASEFIRE TO HOLD … and Israel’s brutal attack on central Beirut could blow the whole thing apart. The foreign ministers of both Pakistan — which mediated the ceasefire — and Saudi Arabia expressed deep concern. French President Emmanuel Macron condemned the strikes “in the strongest possible terms.” Iran’s deputy foreign minister told the BBC that Trump must choose between a ceasefire and allowing Israel to continue bombing Lebanon.
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A message from AHIP: 
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NEWS FROM THE WILDERNESS DEMS LOOK FOR A WIN: The Middle East will be front and center for the Democratic Party today, in more ways than one. House Democrats at 11:30 a.m. will run a hail-mary attempt to get unanimous consent to pass Rep. Gregory Meeks’ (D-N.Y.) Iran war powers resolution — but it’s likely to be blocked by Republicans during the pro forma session. But House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries isn’t ready to give up. He’s prepared to put another resolution up next week, convinced that the requisite number of Republicans are open to joining the effort. More from POLITICO’s Inside Congress 2028 watch: Expect to hear more about Iran from Dem big-hitters including Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore during Day 2 of the National Action Network conference in NYC. There’s a predictable trend of 2028ers using the war as resistance fuel: California Rep. Ro Khanna told POLITICO’s Erin Doherty on the sidelines of NAN that the party “needed to be more vocal” as the conflict escalated. “I mean, [Trump] was threatening genocide of the Iranian people,” Khanna said. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro likened Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to “an eight year old playing with toy soldiers.” WHAT DEMOCRATS ARE READING: “Republicans worry Iran might have already cost them Congress,” by POLITICO’s Andrew Howard and Megan Messerly DOWN IN THE BIG EASY: The DNC is kicking off its spring meeting in New Orleans today. And while those present get to work on the 2028 convention location, chair term limits and the primary calendar — the biggest drama will be all about Israel, Playbook’s Irie Sentner writes in. The DNC’s Resolutions Committee meets at 9 a.m. to consider a list of 32 resolutions, obtained by Playbook, that submitters hope will be adopted by the full party. Many are straightforward, like those opposing abuse in ICE facilities. But a handful highlight a persistent rift in the party and one of its biggest wedges heading into 2026 and 2028 — including resolutions to recognize Palestinian statehood and condemn AIPAC spending on Democratic candidates. Joe Salas, the DNC member from California who submitted the resolution on Palestinian statehood, told Irie “the moment speaks for itself.” He said he’s skipping the meeting. “I’m gonna let them have those words and reject them, accept them, modify them,” he said. “Whatever they want to do.” More from POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky Exclusive — The bigger picture: The DNC’s gathering in New Orleans will also be a chance to bask in Democrats’ recent string of overperformances in red districts — and double down on their new-found focus on the South, Playbook’s Ali Bianco scoops. A new DNC memo obtained by Playbook touts “record breaking” turnout, expanded voter registration training efforts focused on the South, and a county-level focused party initiative. “Democrats have won or overperformed in nearly 90 percent of key races since Trump returned to office,” it says, with the latest coming in Tuesday’s special election in Georgia. Read the memo “Democrats are on offense all across the South,” DNC Chair Ken Martin told Playbook in a statement. “I’m confident that our historic wins and overperformances over the past year are only the beginning.” That’s a sentiment that 2028ers like Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris — who embarked on their own Southern tours — are banking on. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Putting money on it: Progressive group MoveOn is launching a six-figure “Stop the War Hawks” campaign today to counteract the “proliferation of pro-war” dark money from AIPAC, OpenAI and defense contractors like Lockheed Martin, Lisa writes in. They’re endorsing Brad Lander against Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.), who received contributions bundled by AIPAC, in New York’s 10th Congressional District to kickstart the effort that will include more endorsements, paid media and text-message campaigns.
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TRAIL MIX SCOOP — Money Mike: Speaker Mike Johnson is closing out recess by kicking off a two-day campaign swing through Pennsylvania today, where Republicans are working to hold four highly competitive House seats, Lisa scoops. Johnson will be a special guest at fundraisers for Reps. Ryan Mackenzie, Brian Fitzpatrick, Rob Bresnahan and Scott Perry, according to a person familiar with the events. Tickets range from $500 to $10,000 for the Friday luncheon for Mackenzie, which lists GOP megadonors Liz and Dick Uihlein among the hosts, per an invitation obtained by POLITICO. Race raters consider Mackenzie, Bresnahan and Perry’s districts to be toss-ups. CASH DASH: Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-Va.), who’s facing a competitive reelection race (at least before a potential Democratic gerrymander), pulled in more than $2.6 million in the first quarter and went into April with $5.2 million in the bank. His campaign says it’s the highest Q1 fundraising haul of any Virginia House candidate ever. WHERE YOU SHOULD BE WATCHING: There’s two Senate races that haven’t generated the same level of breathless coverage as others — but both are well worth dialing into now, POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin writes in his latest column. “I have in mind two baby boomers, the most underrated and under-covered candidates in this midterm: Ohio’s Sherrod Brown and North Carolina’s Roy Cooper,” JMart writes. “Each comes from a state that has been forbidding for Democrats in federal races. And it’s not an exaggeration to say that each may be the only person who could flip the seat for which they’re running.” More from JMart THE MAGA MONEY MACHINE: MAGA Inc. is pushing back on a report that indicated the super PAC is preparing to use its massive war chest starting around Memorial Day. A source familiar told Playbook’s Adam Wren: “MAGA Inc. never reveals on the record or background our plans, strategy, budgets, or timelines,” a MAGA Inc. spokesperson said. “Therefore, any stories that claim to have inside information do not have that inside information. Campaign trail media should have learned this about the Trump Political Operation in 2024. Nothing’s changed.”
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BEST OF THE REST RAND PAUL’S DILEMMA: The maverick Kentucky Republican has been a frequent target of Trump’s ire. Now, as chair of the Senate Homeland Security Committee, Paul can hold up one of Trump’s biggest priorities, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney writes. “Paul’s colleagues sidelined him last year when he refused to give as big a cash infusion for border security as the White House wanted. Now he must decide whether to go along as GOP leaders discuss potentially funding parts of DHS for as long as a decade.” His nascent 2028 ambitions could also prove to be a factor. FED UP: The frontrunner to be Trump’s new chief economist is Chris Phelan, an adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, POLITICO’s Victoria Guida and Megan Messerly scooped. If confirmed, he’d be the next head of the Council of Economic Advisers, replacing Stephen Miran after he formally stepped down in February to join the Fed. COURSE CORRECTION: The DOJ will release a report as soon as next week claiming the previous administration politically targeted anti-abortion activists because of their religious beliefs, MS NOW’s Carol Leonnig and Julianne McShane scoop. “The nearly 60-page draft seeks to justify [Trump’s] pardons of two dozen defendants who were convicted during the Biden administration of blockading abortion clinics, threatening violence and verbally assaulting patients and staff.” BRAVE NEW WORLD: “Anthropic loses appeals court bid to pause supply chain risk label,” by POLITICO’s Brendan Bordelon: “A three-judge panel at the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals on Wednesday rejected a request by the artificial intelligence startup Anthropic to pause the government’s designation of the company as a supply chain risk. The decision leaves in place at least part of the Defense Department’s official designation of Anthropic’s products as risks to national security.”
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TALK OF THE TOWN |
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STOP THE STEEL — “White House Secures Foreign Steel for Ballroom Project,” by NYT’s Ana Swanson and Luke Broadwater: “[The] White House has secured tens of millions of dollars worth of donated foreign steel for Mr. Trump’s $400 million ballroom project … ArcelorMittal, a Luxembourg-based firm that is the world’s second-largest steel maker, is providing steel for the structure of the ballroom project … But the use of foreign steel for a ballroom built at the most recognizable building in the United States may anger domestic companies and unions that are trying to promote the U.S. industry.” OH, BABY — George Santos announced he and his husband will become parents next year. “We are having kids next year and that's a big deal,” he said on Meghan McCain’s 2WAY show “Citizen McCain.” THE LATEST MANOSPHERE ENTRANT — “RFK Jr is launching a podcast to expose ‘lies’ that have made Americans sick,” by AP’s Ali Swenson: “The show, titled ‘The Secretary Kennedy Podcast,’ will launch next week and feature Kennedy, a longtime anti-vaccine crusader who has reshaped the country’s health policy, in conversation with doctors, scientists and agency staff.” OUT AND ABOUT — The Aspen Institute’s Philosophy & Society + Georgetown University’s AIDC hosted a “techno-humanism” debate Tuesday night at the Crown & Crow between Jason Crawford and Antón Barba-Kay, moderated by Samuel Kimbriel. SPOTTED: Mark Fisher, Daphne Hansell, Shadi Hamid, Ranna Kisswani, Brad Littlejohn, Hannah Rosenthal, Luis Parrales, Michael Wear, Vienna Scott, Damir Marusic, Roger Santodomingo, Zac Hill, Jag Bhalla, Kearney Capuano, Kristina Saccone, Sophia Morales and Sarah Muhlbaum. — LSG and Shadow Search hosted a reception last night at LSG’s downtown office. Panelists included food critic Tom Sietsema, Google’s Mackenzie Thomas, US Travel Association’s Geoff Freeman and Kimball Stroud. SPOTTED: Dave Barnhart, Ben Jenkins, Hayley Zachary, Will Caggiano, Matt Haller, Brian Crawford, Robby Zirkelbach, Jim Billimoria, Steve Danon, Casey Clark, Greg Crist, Maria Ghazal and Liz Clark. WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Cam Sadler is joining FGS Global as managing director. She previously worked for White House chief of staff Susie Wiles. MEDIA MOVE — Patrick Svitek is joining CNN as a reporter on their politics team. He previously worked at WaPo. TRANSITIONS — Mark Weber, Ronne Ostby, Deborah Burnette, Imani Greene, Walter Arenzon and Edward Chang are launching marketing and advisory firm The Septem Group. They are HHS, White House Office of National Drug Control Policy, FDA, CDC and NIH alums. … Drew Florio is now senior director of federal government affairs at News Corp. He previously worked for CGCN and is a Kevin McCarthy alum. … … Quinn Slaven is joining the VA as press secretary. He previously worked for Rep. Brad Knott (R-N.C.). … Bob Marcum is now a managing director in BRG’s energy and climate practice. He previously worked at the Department of Energy. BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Bryant Gardner HAPPY BIRTHDAY: MS NOW’s Joe Scarborough, Alex Witt and Jeff Kepnes … Jeff Zucker … former Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey … Global Strategy Group’s Jon Silvan … POLITICO’s Ali Manzano and Rebecca Carballo … GMMB’s Brad Perseke … Joanne Zurcher … Natalie Adams Krute of Rep. Jamie Raskin’s (D-Md.) office … Miranda Green … Caroline Boulton … Roy Ramthun … Stephanie Dreyer ... Andean Group’s Frank Gargon … Jill Gershenson-Cohen … Olivia Reingold … Neal Kemkar … Vocal Media’s Malia Fisher … James Jackson … Catie Anderson of the American Cleaning Institute … Cynthia Nixon … Elliot Imse of the LGBTQ+ Victory Institute … Margaret Miller of the Gates Foundation … Eagle Energy Ventures’ Todd Foley Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross. Correction: Monday’s Playbook misstated the amount of money that Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-Texas) campaign had raised since the primary, due to an error from the source. It raised $3.4 million in the four weeks after the primary.
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