Current Affairs Of Pakistan & World: The only question that matters today

The only question that matters today

Apr 07, 2026

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With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray

On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Dasha discuss President Donald Trump’s options on Iran, VP JD Vance’s electioneering trip to Hungary and today’s special election in Georgia to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Good Tuesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard. Take a deep breath — Trump’s deadline day for Iran is here.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The path to Dobbs: Your essential reading this morning comes via POLITICO alum Peter Canellos, whose new book, “Revenge for the Sixties: Sam Alito and the Triumph of the Conservative Legal Movement,” is out today. Writing for POLITICO Magazine today, Canellos sets out one of the book’s central tenets: how the failed Supreme Court nomination of President George W. Bush’s White House counsel Harriet Miers in 2005 helped pave the way for the highly partisan — and archly conservative — court we see today.

Miers’ replacement, of course, was Samuel Alito, who nearly two decades later would write the majority opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, ending the constitutional right to abortion.

“He confronted the social changes of the ’60s first-hand,” Canellos told Playbook via email. “He was in the last all-male class to enter Princeton. He was an R.O.T.C. member when the corps got kicked off campus. He shunned protests when seemingly the whole campus rose up against [Richard] Nixon’s incursion into Cambodia. Then, in his career, he was one of the first beneficiaries of the pipeline created by the conservative legal movement … He later delivered the movement’s greatest victory, in the Dobbs case.”

And this movement has never mattered more: “Its adherents are the majority on the Supreme Court, and they’re about to confront some of the most important challenges ever faced by the court. President Trump is determined to stretch his executive power to the full extent of the law and, in the eyes of his critics, beyond it. It may turn out that the conservative legal movement is the only force strong enough to rein in Trump.” Buy the book … Watch Peter speak at “Politics and Prose” this Sunday afternoon

In today’s Playbook …

— Inside White House deliberations as Trump’s Iran deadline draws near.

— What to watch in today’s special elections in Georgia and Wisconsin.

— Exclusive fundraising figures from Sherrod Brown, John Cornyn and more.

DRIVING THE DAY

DEADLINE DAY: The only question that matters today is how seriously to take Trump’s threats toward Iran. The president’s 8 p.m. Eastern deadline for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is almost here, and there’s no sign of a diplomatic breakthrough.

The stakes couldn't be much higher. Trump at yesterday’s news conference spent over 83 extraordinary minutes vowing to use the most powerful military in the world to deliver the “complete demolition” of a nation of 90 million people, with every transport bridge “decimated” by midnight tonight and every power plant “out of business, burning, exploding, and never to be used again.”

We’ve never heard an American president speak like this before. Will he actually follow through? “Only President Trump knows what he will do,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly tells the WSJ.

There’s been much discussion about possible American war crimes, but let’s be clear — neither the judgment of international institutions nor of liberally minded critics will weigh heavily on this president. And there’s plenty to suggest he’s ready to press ahead.

Exhibit A: POLITICO’s Paul McLeary and Leo Shane scoop that the Pentagon is expanding a list of Iranian energy sites it can target to include ones that provide fuel and power to both civilians and the military — providing some cover against accusations of war crimes. U.S. officials tell Paul and Leo “the dual-use nature of the targets” makes them legitimate.

Exhibit B: Emailing in from Tel Aviv, POLITICO’s Felicia Schwartz says the U.S. and Israel have “jointly developed a wide set of targets to follow through on Trump's promise to destroy bridges, power plants and other civilian infrastructure in Iran, should Iran not accede to Trump's deadline.” “We’re all waiting to Wednesday, right?” Simcha Rothman, a far-right Israeli lawmaker from Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party — part of PM Benjamin Netanyahu's government — told Felicia yesterday.

Exhibit C: Axios’ Barak Ravid and Marc Caputo report Trump himself is now the most pro-escalation voice in the room, citing one unnamed official who describes the president as “bloodthirsty, like a mad dog" and another who says the president has been casually referring to this moment as “Infrastructure Day.”

Set against all that is the president’s well-rehearsed negotiating habit of making maximalist threats in the hope of securing the best possible deal, and then walking back at the final moment. Your Playbook author has received more than one text from the business world raising the prospect of “another TACO Tuesday” — an inelegant but indicative window into how plenty of people now view Trump’s negotiating stance.

The economy, stupid: Trump will also be weighing the economic consequences of escalation, given that attacking Iran’s core infrastructure may trigger further Iranian attacks on similar targets across the Gulf. The Pentagon insists Tehran's missiles have been rendered largely ineffective, but successful Iranian strikes on key energy facilities in neighboring countries would have global economic impact. And the threat of real economic chaos has proven perhaps the only effective brake on Trump in the past.

Finally, Trump ought to be considering the risk of a refugee crisis if this escalates. And not just from within Iran. Plenty of observers fear Iran could respond by targeting its neighbors' civilian infrastructure, such as water desalination plants, potentially forcing large numbers of people from affected regions to relocate.

Remember: This doesn’t have to be a binary outcome. Trump could deliver limited strikes on infrastructure tonight as a further warning to Iran. He could say sufficient progress has been made via back-channel talks, and announce a time-limited ceasefire to allow further negotiations. Or he could just extend the deadline, as he’s done before.

Or we could get an actual breakthrough in the talks, though no one seems too hopeful. Negotiations are happening slowly, and via intermediaries — though JD Vance remains on standby to jump in if required, POLITICO’s Sophia Cai reports.

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COMING ATTRACTIONS: Whatever happens, it’s clear NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte will be walking into a maelstrom when he arrives for talks at the White House tomorrow. It was easy to miss yesterday given Trump’s extraordinary rhetoric on so many topics, but the president’s language on NATO was perhaps the strongest we’ve heard so far. The president admitted his dispute with NATO really “began with Greenland,” and after Denmark and its allies resisted a U.S. takeover of the island, “I said: ‘Bye-bye.’”

Bye-bye to NATO? Rutte will have quite a task getting that walked back tomorrow.

This might help: U.K. military planners host a conference today with dozens of other allied nations on how to get the Strait of Hormuz reopened once the war is over. But Trump’s suggestion yesterday that the U.S. should be the one charging tolls isn’t being taken seriously, POLITICO’s Ben Lefebvre writes in today’s Morning Energy. “An oil industry executive in regular contact with the administration said his take was Trump was just riffing,” Ben writes. “The U.S. hasn’t shown the massive effort to take Hormuz militarily would be politically palatable. Charging tolls could also get politically hairy.”

And speaking of politically hairy: Trump’s former pal Tucker Carlson’s blistering attack on the president last night, over his Easter Sunday threat to Iran, is making serious waves on the MAGA right. And Sen. Ron Johnson (Wis.) became one of the first Republican members of Congress to warn the president not to follow through with his threat. There’s still no sign of such outbursts translating into rank-and-file MAGA disillusionment, but it’s a trend to watch.

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ELECTION DAY

TRUMP’S TEST STARTS HERE: A two-month stress test of the enduring power of the Trump project — as laid out neatly by JMart last week — kicks off today in Georgia and Wisconsin.

MTG MK II: The special election runoff for Georgia’s 14th Congressional District pits Trump-endorsed Clayton Fuller against Democrat Shawn Harris in a race to succeed former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. (MTG has been silent so far.) Everyone expects a comfortable Republican victory, but the size of the margin is being watched for signs the enthusiasm for Trump is wavering. Both candidates are also military veterans, making this one of the first tests of the Iran war at the polls, NYT’s Tim Balk notes.

Keep a close eye on the margin of Democrats’ expected victory in a Wisconsin state Supreme Court race. As POLITICO’s Gregory Svirnovskiy notes, the election is attracting nothing like the attention it did last year — Elon Musk’s cheesehead hat and all. But a double-digit win for Dems would show the scale of the Republican challenge in the current political climate.

DOWN-BALLOT DIGEST: A number of local races in Wisconsin and Alaska could provide some clues to how hotly contested statewide elections will shake out, Playbook’s Eli Okun writes in. In Wisconsin’s crucial Waukesha County — a historical Republican powerhouse that has looked purpler lately — Democrats would love to score mayoral upsets in one or both of the two largest cities (Waukesha and Brookfield). Keep an eye, too, on the composition of county commissions in Kenosha County and Brown County (Green Bay). In Alaska, the Anchorage Assembly has six competitive races, with conservative-backed candidates trying to make inroads.

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TRAIL MIX

RACE OF THE DAY: Americans for Prosperity Action is launching its latest ad in support of incumbent GOP Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio, a $500,000 buy across digital and streaming platforms, Playbook’s Ali Bianco scoops. The ad buy also comes as the top Senate GOP PAC announced its biggest spending this cycle will be for Husted. Watch the ad

— On the other side: Democrat Sherrod Brown, who’s running to oust Husted, raised over $12.5 million in the first quarter of 2026, a massive haul with donors from all 88 Ohio counties, Eli scoops. It also marks one of the biggest fundraising rakes of the major Senate races this cycle.

MESSIN’ WITH TEXAS: Texas Sen. John Cornyn raised nearly $9 million in the first quarter of 2026, including $2.4 million in the four weeks after the primary, Playbook’s Adam Wren scoops. The campaign says it has over $8 million in cash on hand in the committees under its control at the end of March. “The Cornyn campaign continues performing at a high level, building off the overperformance in the March 3rd primary to announcing a massive fundraising haul in the first quarter of 2026,” Cornyn reelection campaign manager Andy Hemming said in a statement.

MICHIGAN MADNESS: Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed raised over $2.25 million in the first quarter of 2026, all without corporate PAC money, Adam scoops. El-Sayed will also announce having built a volunteer army of 4,000. The haul comes as El-Sayed prepares to host what could be some of the largest on-the-ground rallies of the midterms in the state so far this year, with back-to-back campus rallies with the far-left Twitch streamer Hasan Piker at Michigan State University and the University of Michigan today, Adam writes in from Ann Arbor. El-Sayed is expected to start the day on “Fox and Friends” at 6:30 a.m.

UTAH RUN AROUND: Rep. Blake Moore’s (R-Utah) political career skyrocketed after he helped push Utah’s redistricting initiative forward, but it may be coming back to bite him, POLITICO’s Samuel Benson writes. “Moore’s role in the process is fueling a primary challenge and could potentially hinder his future hopes at statewide office, a sign of how dramatically the politics around map-drawing have shifted over the past few years.”

IT’S ALWAYS SUNNY IN CALI?: Trump’s endorsement of former Fox News host Steve Hilton in the stacked California governor’s race caught some politicos by surprise — but actually, MAGA had long been laying the groundwork. A team of POLITICO’s best traced the campaign to get Hilton the MAGA stamp of approval: The White House had realized it was unlikely two Republicans would get the top spots in a California election, but Trump’s backing would at least ensure one of them made the runoff.

MARYLAND MATCHUP: Democrat Harry Dunn raised just over $2 million since launching his bid for Maryland’s 5th Congressional District in early February, POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky scoops. Dunn, a former Capitol Police officer running to succeed retiring Rep. Steny Hoyer, is backed by former Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Hoyer has thrown support to his former campaign hand, state Del. Adrian Boafo.

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BEST OF THE REST

JUST VANCE: JD Vance is in Hungary today on a mission to boost PM Viktor Orbán in one of the continent’s most contentious elections in years. Polls suggest Orbán is facing an uphill struggle, and a White House aide tells POLITICO’s Jamie Dettmer and Eli Stokols they’re keen to “repay the favor” for a leader who’s “been with us through thick and thin.” “Orbán has been with the president for a very long time,” the aide said. “He was with him through the trials and tribulations, through the entire campaign.”

This is a rare political moment where both the U.S. and Russia are working to keep the same PM in power. And there’s another intriguing connection with Vance: one of his key campaign allies, Gladden Pappin, who once prophesied Melania Trump becoming queen of the U.S., now works for Orban, The Atlantic’s Isaac Stanley-Becker reports. Vance and Orban will do a joint presser in Budapest plus a rally at a packed football stadium.

TAX SEASON HEADACHES: “IRS staffing shortage collides with GOP's tax cut campaign pitch,” by POLITICO’s Danny Nguyen: “The IRS has fallen far short of its staffing targets for customer service roles during tax-filing season, according to a draft government report seen by POLITICO … The findings suggest that President Trump’s dramatic cuts to the federal bureaucracy may pose a challenge to the centerpiece of the GOP’s midterm election messaging — the delivery of tax relief.”

MARK YOUR CALENDARS: “Howard Lutnick will testify to Congress about Jeffrey Epstein next month,” by POLITICO’s Jacob Wendler and Hailey Fuchs. Lutnick’s transcribed interview with House Oversight is slated for May 6, per two people familiar with the planning. Lutnick has said he cut ties with the late convicted sex offender in 2005.

IMMIGRATION FILES: DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin is mulling the possibility of cracking down on customs privileges in “sanctuary cities,” Fox News’ Nora Moriarty reports. LAX and JFK are major customs hubs that DHS could look at, Mullin told Bret Baier in his first TV interview since being confirmed.

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TALK OF THE TOWN

IN MEMORIAM — “Ronald H. Spector, Who Traced Social History in Books on War, Dies at 83,” by NYT’s Clay Risen: “Ronald H. Spector, who was among the first academic historians to grapple with the Vietnam War, and who did so by pioneering a hybrid of military and social history from both the American and the Vietnamese perspectives, died on March 26 at his home in Annandale, Va. He was 83.”

PLAYBOOK STYLE SECTION — “Melania Trump’s Unexpected Easter Look,” by NYT’s Vanessa Friedman: “[O]n Monday, as the first lady joined the president and the Easter Bunny on the Truman balcony of the White House to welcome guests to a party with what her office termed ‘special patriotic spirit’ … if it wasn’t exactly pastels and chickadees, it was very Hyannis Port, yacht-club-coded. And the name on the label was the most American of all American brands: Ralph Lauren.”

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — John Kirby is joining MS NOW as a national security analyst. He previously served as rear admiral in the U.S. Navy and as the key Pentagon spokesperson for the Obama and Biden administrations. The network will make the announcement on “Morning Joe.”

MEDIA MOVE — Stephen Neukam is joining NOTUS as a congressional reporter. He previously worked at Axios.

TRANSITIONS — Slav Gatchev has joined The Rockefeller Foundation as VP of innovative finance. He previously worked at the Nature Conservancy. … Kat Miller has joined Advancing American Freedom as a policy analyst. She previously worked at the America First Policy Institute. … Ellen Hart has joined The Animal Health Institute as VP of regulatory affairs. She previously worked at the FDA’s Center for Veterinary Medicine.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer … Reps. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.), Troy Nehls (R-Texas) (favorite meal: bone-in ribeye) and Yassamin Ansari (D-Ariz.) (favorite treats: cupcakes and espresso martinis) … POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman and Fernando Rodas … CNN’s Kaitlan Collins and Brad Parks … Cliff Hackel … Cavalry’s Josh Holmes … Darren Samuelsohn … Meghan Green … Forward Majority’s Leslie Martes … Michael Meehan … former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels … Mike Abboud … HuffPost’s Paige Lavender … Maggie Severns … White House’s Katie Bailey … Casey Trees’ Brandi Porter … Michael Ciamarra of Southwest Airlines … Raymond Rodriguez of Rep. Mike Levin’s (D-Calif.) office … Richard Reyes-Gavilan … Tom Snedeker of the Herald Group ... Jessica Chasmar ... Eugene Kiely … Valerie Nelson … former Rep. Robert Brady (D-Pa.) … Dana Gray of T-Mobile ... Fabiola Rodriguez-Ciampoli … Mother Jones’ Jeremy Schulman … Rene Redwood … FWD.us’ Todd Schulte … Alan Hoffman … Bill McQuillen of FTI Consulting … Sara Croom … Bridgestone’s Tom Lehner … former California Gov. Jerry Brown … Noah Gray … TAG Strategies’ Woodham Kemmer

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