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By Ali Bianco |
Presented by |
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THE CATCH-UP |
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MoveOn estimates there’s enough members who sat out 2024 to flip 11 toss-up congressional districts Democrats need to secure a House majority. | Getty Images for MoveOn |
The progressive playbook for the midterms isn’t just about Democrats taking back the House. It’s about winning by blowout margins, 2018 style, with an eye toward 2028. First in Playbook: MoveOn, the progressive grassroots group, is launching a $27 million investment into an election program aiming to engage one specific kind of voter: skippers. These are the voters who turned out in 2020 but became disaffected with politics and stayed home in 2024. MoveOn’s theory of the case is that enough of these voters exist in this cycle’s most competitive races to make a difference — if they can just get them off the sidelines. “Our program is laser focused on re-engaging and rebuilding trust with Democratic leaning voters within MoveOn’s own membership base who sat out 2024,” executive director Katie Bethell said in a statement shared with Playbook. “These are the most important voters for us and the outcome of the midterms rests on bringing hundreds of thousands of them back into the fold.” The party searching for a path out of the wilderness has been dogged for years by the question of how to win over disengaged and disillusioned Democrats. The party saw significant turnout in the 2025 elections, but polls show voters remain skeptical about the Democratic brand. But as some Democrats go all in on persuading some of President Donald Trump’s voters — James Talarico in Texas comes to mind — MoveOn is preparing to tap into parts of the base the party left behind. MoveOn estimates there’s enough members who sat out 2024 to flip 11 toss-up congressional districts Democrats need to secure a House majority. But they’re widening the lens, eyeing 27 districts and seven Senate seats that would net Democrats both chambers with enough room to legislate. They’re recruiting a small army of volunteers across the country, with plans to contact skippers more than four million times until November. But what gets a so-called “skipper” out the door and to the ballot box? They’re counting on a hyperfocused affordability agenda to do the trick. “Disaffected voters are angry at Trump for failing to do anything about the cost of living and taking us into reckless and illegal wars, and they're also fed up with corporate Democrats who make money from corporate PACs and then don't fight for working families,” Brad Lander, who’s running in the Democratic primary for New York’s 10th District, told Playbook in an interview. “We've seen what it looks like when politicians tap into that disaffection — [Zohran Mamdani] did it effectively here.” The grassroots organization is planning “the largest number of primary interventions in its history” — backing candidates like Lander in New York to Cori Bush in Missouri — to energize the base. They’re adding two new endorsements to the ranks this week, in two of Democrats’ most closely watched Senate primaries: Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan. Both will appear virtually with MoveOn tonight at its election program launch. “I think the momentum is undeniable,” El-Sayed said in an interview. “They're coming because they recognize that there is something honest about our message, and they've been looking for it for a minute. We went from [Bernie Sanders] and then Trump in 2016 to [Joe Biden] in 2020 to Trump again in 2024, and it's not because our voters are schizophrenic. It’s because they haven't found what it is that they’re looking for.” While MoveOn looks at skippers, other mobilizing forces are trying out different ways to expand the party. Priorities USA is “treating 2026 as a laboratory to test what works before 2028,” the group’s president Danielle Butterfield told Playbook. They’re testing voter communications in North Carolina, and reaching right-leaning voters via YouTube. Indivisible, another major grassroots group, is using a hyper-local approach to persuade some Trump voters in key Senate races. And Swing Left, which courts all ends of the Democratic spectrum, has a nationwide voter listening program it’s hoping will reach voters the party has never contacted before, the group told Playbook. They all agree that mobilizing Democratic voters now is what will jumpstart a potential Democratic trifecta for 2028. But MoveOn’s push rests on convincing the skeptics to trust the party again ahead of what could be Democrats’ most important presidential election yet. “We’ve got to get back the voters we lost, but then also we’ve got to have a politics that inspires folks who have, for a minute, given up on our politics to come back to it,” El-Sayed said. Good Thursday afternoon. This is Ali Bianco. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Send me your tips at abianco@politico.com.
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Explore the U.S. kits. |
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5 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW |
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1. THE ECONOMY, STUPID: The latest PCE price index release had some bruising results for Trump: Inflation is higher now than at any point in Trump’s second term, and the economy has grown at a slower pace in the first quarter than expected, according to the latest figures out this morning, POLITICO’s Sam Sutton reports. Surging energy costs drove inflation to an annual rate of 3.8 percent in April, and GDP growth was revised down from 2 to 1.6 percent. Adding to the pileup, jobless claims rose last week, per WSJ. Expect Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to receive a barrage of tough economic questions at his 2 p.m. White House press briefing. How it’s playing: Several Iowa farmers say they’re feeling the pinch of rising costs, especially as their operating margins close in — but those who voted for Trump still largely back him, NBC’s Peter Nicholas reports from Galt. For working class white voters without college degrees in Ohio, there’s growing frustration with the president that could cost him a key portion of his base, WaPo’s Hannah Knowles writes from Willowick. Behind the curtain: “How Howard Lutnick Operates,” by NYT’s Michael Rothfeld and Ana Swanson: “Before becoming U.S. commerce secretary, Mr. Lutnick controlled 818 companies. A review of their dealings sheds light on his freewheeling first year in government.” 2. IRAN LATEST: U.S. and Iranian negotiators have an agreement for a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and start talks on Iran’s nuclear program, but Trump hasn’t yet given final approval, Axios’ Barak Ravid scoops. The agreement would get all parties to the negotiating table, but a final deal remains elusive amid stalled talks. But it comes as the U.S. and Iran traded overnight attacks — with CENTCOM deeming Iran’s an “egregious ceasefire violation,” POLITICO’s Gregory Svirnovskiy and Leo Shane III report.
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Watch the season finale of On the Road with Jonathan Martin On the Road with Jonathan Martin wraps Season 1 in South Philly with Gov. Josh Shapiro, who weighs in on the future of the Democratic Party, voter trust, 2028 speculation and more — from inside Angelo’s Pizzeria. Watch the finale and catch up on the full season. |
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3. 2028 WATCH: On the sidelines of the Mackinac Policy Conference in Michigan, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer gave her clearest answer yet to the question everyone’s been wondering about: “I think there will be a robust group of people running for president. I will not be one of them in 2028,” she told Fox 2 Detroit. But she may still have some wiggle room: “Sometimes she does change her mind,” a person familiar with Whitmer’s thinking told POLITICO’s Gregory Svirnovskiy, referencing Whitmer’s 2014 comments that she would not run for governor. But Whitmer’s not top of voters’ minds: it’s Pete Buttigieg leading Emerson College’s new presidential primary poll, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom. On the Republican side, VP JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are neck and neck, with Vance one point ahead of Rubio but down significantly from their February poll. 4. IT’S TAXING: “Trump’s ‘Anti-Weaponization Fund’ could carry a big tax bill, some experts argue,” by POLITICO’s Bernie Becker: “Some tax practitioners say the way that the fund, which Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche announced May 18, is structured likely makes it an income tax liability for the president, potentially costing hundreds of millions of dollars.” 5. THE POST-VRA WORLD: “Republicans are gutting southern Dem districts. Dems might front-load the South in its 2028 primaries to respond,” by POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky: “As [DNC] members meet in D.C. this week to discuss which states will lead the next presidential nominating contest, the GOP push to dismantle majority-Black districts and dilute Democrats’ power across the South is ratcheting up the selection stakes. … Multiple RBC members on Wednesday expressed an openness to having two states from the South in the early window, as a way to both bolster the party’s standing with Black voters and better align with the nation’s population shifts.”
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TALK OF THE TOWN |
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TOP TALKER — “Trump appointees push $250 banknote with his portrait,” by WaPo’s Jonathan O'Connell: “Trump administration officials have pressed the office responsible for printing the nation’s money to design a $250 bill featuring the president’s portrait … U.S. Treasurer Brandon Beach and his senior adviser, Mike Brown — repeatedly urged staff at the agency’s Bureau of Engraving and Printing to prepare prototypes of the note … The artist who said he designed the mock-up told The Post that he had spoken with Trump about it. … Legislation that would allow Trump to appear on a $250 bill was introduced in Congress last year to commemorate the nation’s 250th anniversary but has languished.” JILL BIDEN SPEAKS — “Jill Biden Worried Her Husband Was Drugged on Debate Night,” by The Atlantic’s Toluse Olorunnipa: “As she watched President Biden stumble through the most cringeworthy portion of his disastrous June 2024 debate, First Lady Jill Biden wondered if her husband had unknowingly ingested drugs or was having a medical episode on live television … ‘Oh God — will people watching assume this is how he is all the time?’ she writes in her new memoir, View From the East Wing.” The highlight: “That bluntness apparently resurfaced in the moments after the debate. As the president walked off the stage, he whispered to his wife, ‘I really f**ked up, didn’t I?’ she writes. ‘“Yes, you did,” I whispered back.’” MEDIAWATCH — “CBS News Names an Outsider, Nick Bilton, to Lead ‘60 Minutes’” by NYT’s Benjamin Mullin: “Bari Weiss, the editor in chief of CBS News, signaled a new direction for the nation’s top news program on Thursday, replacing the executive producer of ‘60 Minutes’ with Nick Bilton, a longtime tech journalist and documentarian who has never worked in traditional broadcast news. … Cecilia Vega, a correspondent, was fired on Thursday, as was the current executive producer, Tanya Simon, who had spent more than 30 years at the program.” WORTH A LISTEN — Commemorating 40 years of C-SPAN2 in the Senate, Howard Mortman hosted NYT’s Carl Hulse, NOTUS’ Paul Kane and Fox News’ Chad Pergram to dive deep on old clips and share their takes. Part one of the podcast is out today. MAKING D.C. BEAUTIFUL AGAIN — The Columbus Circle fountain at Union Station is the latest to be restored as the city prepares for the massive America at 250 celebration this July, per Daily Wire’s Reagan Reese. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy both attended the ribbon-cutting for the official reopening. OUT AND ABOUT — Shakespeare Theatre Company last night celebrated the opening night of Othello, featuring Wendell Pierce and directed by STC Artistic Director Simon Godwin. SPOTTED: Angela Lee Gieras, Carrie Preston, Micheal Emerson, Jacqueline Mars, Geoffrey and Anne Kline Pohanka, Anita Antenucci, Stefanie Erkiletian, Phil Mendelson, Abbe Lowell, Emily Lenzner, Angie Gates, Anika Wilson Brown, Donald Graham and Amanda Bennett, Timothy Stickney and Phyllis Yvonne Stickney, Cathy Hughes, Peter Spiegel, Dharini and Reggie Aggarwal and Elizabeth Bagley. — Siemens AG President & CEO Roland Busch hosted a Washington-style policy salon dinner last night in NYC at The Cellar at The Fifth Avenue Hotel, where conversation focused on AI. Widehall’s Steve Clemons moderated the evening. SPOTTED: Stephen Miran, Peter Orszag, Rev Lebaredian, Glenn Fogel, Paul Gruenwald, Phil Mackintosh, Steffen Fuchs, Tom Wright, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Hadas Gold, Lance West, Campbell Brown, Lauren Hirsch, Sarah Weinstein, Alan Murray, Vasi Philomin, Ann Fairchild, Brie Sachse and Matt Kalmans. TRANSITIONS — Bill O'Leary has joined Spencer Stuart to lead their government affairs search practice. He previously worked at Heidrick & Struggles. … Brooklyn Tucker is now senior adviser for congressional affairs at the Department of Transportation. She most recently was at the Maritime Administration. … Darin Cabral has joined BRG as CFO. He previously worked at Constellis. … … Andy Yates and Joseph Resta have launched RYE Digital Strategies, and will work as CEO and managing partner, respectively. Yates previously founded Public Affairs Partners, and Resta previously worked at Immyrse. … ROKK Solutions is adding Grace Gold as an account director and Evan Cranmer as a research analyst. They both previously worked at Penta Group. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.
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