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By Eli Okun |
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With help from Ali Bianco and Irie Sentner Happy Sunday. This is Eli Okun with a dose of big international news during a usually sleepy holiday weekend. Get in touch.
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DRIVING THE DAY |
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Government supporters hold Iranian flags and pictures of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, during a ceremony honoring the armed forces and those killed in the war with Israel and the U.S. at the Imam Khomeini Grand Mosque in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, May 24, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi) | Vahid Salemi/AP |
THE ART OF THE DEAL: Is this the end? Today could be one of the most geopolitically consequential hinge points since the U.S. and Israel began their war with Iran, a conflict that has killed more than 6,000 people and dropkicked the global economy. The U.S. and Iran appear poised to announce the framework for an initial peace deal, perhaps within hours. If the agreement comes together, the world will be watching closely: What’s in the fine print? Can this actually put an end to the fighting? And after three months of war (including six weeks of ceasefire), who’s coming out ahead? President Donald Trump announced yesterday that the U.S., Iran and a bevy of Middle Eastern interlocutors had mostly landed a deal and just needed to finalize the last details, per POLITICO’s Ben Johansen, after weeks of whipsawing saber-rattling and negotiations. Not so fast: Trump this morning sounded a slightly more cautious note, saying negotiators “must take their time and get it right.” Inside the deal: Axios’ Barak Ravid scooped the details of what the almost-finished agreement comprises. In short, it’s a 60-day extension of the ceasefire with relief for the world economy — reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports, granting sanctions waivers for some Iranian oil — and time for more detailed negotiations over tricky nuclear issues. U.S. officials said “Iran gave the U.S. through the mediators verbal commitments about the scope of the concessions it’s willing to make on suspending enrichment and giving up the nuclear material,” Ravid reports. The deal would also end Israel’s related war in Lebanon (about which Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu “expressed concern” to Trump). “Some good news” could come soon, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said today in India. But an emboldened Iran, too, is pre-framing the memorandum of understanding as a victory, while publicly sounding much less concrete about what it has ceded on nuclear issues. Tehran “shattered that illusion” of overwhelming U.S. power, a foreign ministry spokesman posted. The reported deal is far from the “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” Trump vowed he’d extract at the war’s outset — and from the shuttering of Iran’s nuclear program he said was necessary to achieve. If negotiators do land an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for un-tolled traffic, it would remove a significant self-made headache for Trump, who has seen his domestic political fortunes tarnished by leaping gas prices and other economic fallout from the war/blockade. Whether the war achieves Trump’s stated aims would depend largely on the outcome of further nuclear talks. (Keep an eye on whether the limits go any further than the Obama-era nuclear deal from which Trump pulled out.) Though the U.S. and Israel killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Tehran’s autocratic regime remains in place — and more repressive than before — with potential sanctions relief or unfrozen assets in the offing. It’s not clear whether the framework will include any limits on Iran’s ballistic missiles or support for regional militant groups. Israeli officials have been noticeably quiet so far, but one top official told CBS that Israel made clear it has to retain “operational freedom of action in all sectors, including in Lebanon.” That’s not to say Iran, which has lost thousands of people and seen its military infrastructure pummeled, would emerge from the war stronger, either. And the U.S. will still look to impose serious new restrictions to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, which could be a significant breakthrough if they happen.
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A message from Vapor Technology Association: The science is clear: Vaping saves lives, and youth vaping is at historic lows. Now Acting FDA Commissioner Diamantas must fix the broken system to save vaping: establish predictable scientific guidelines for PMTA review, enforce against illicit products that fail those standards, and protect adult Americans relying on flavored vapes to quit smoking. FDA policy must change to catch up to its own data. The window is open — act now. |
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How it’s playing: News of the incoming deal has already unleashed intra-GOP squabbling between MAGA supporters excited to see war’s end and hawkish Republicans concerned that it would give away the farm. Online, debate got personal quickly. Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) warned that the agreement “would be a disaster. Everything accomplished by Operation Epic Fury would be for naught!” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said regional conflict would only balloon if a deal “allows the regime to survive and become more powerful over time.” Prominent voices like Hugh Hewitt and Mark Levin vague-posted about the perils of preemptive dealmaking. There was nothing vague about Mike Pompeo’s criticism: He said it seemed to “[p]ay the IRGC to build a WMD program and terrorize the world.” But prominent Trump allies celebrated the news as a significant victory for peace, including Speaker Mike Johnson (who nonetheless got ratioed for his obviously false claim that “Trump is the ONLY one who could have gotten Iran … to the negotiating table”). And even some war-skeptical Democrats, like Rob Malley, said the emerging agreement sounded like the best off-ramp at this point in time. Other MAGA leaders went hard after the doubters. “Mike Pompeo has no idea what the fuck he’s talking about,” White House communications director Steven Cheung wrote. “No one asked you bro,” Alex Bruesewitz shot back at Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-Texas) concern about the deal. “Hush, child. The adults are talking,” Cruz responded. “I’m not your ‘bro.’” Bruesewitz had the last word: “Sorry you’re still salty that I prevented you from getting a picture with Nicki Minaj after you came running after her like a school girl. You’re going to get wiped out in 2028, clown.” SUNDAY BEST … — Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) on the deal, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “It doesn’t make sense to me. … Look, we were told about 11 weeks ago by [Defense Secretary Pete] Hegseth and the Department of Defense that they had obliterated Iran’s defenses and it was just a matter of time before we had the nuclear material. Now we’re talking about a posture where we may accept the nuclear material remaining in Iran? How does that make sense at all?” — Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) on the deal, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “My constituents are hurting: Gas is almost $5 a gallon. Diesel’s almost $6 a gallon. And the farmers here in Kentucky can’t afford the fertilizer to put on their fields, so heck yes, I would support it. We don’t know what the terms of it are, but if Lindsey Graham and Ted Cruz are crashing out last night, I’d say it’s probably a pretty good deal.” — Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) on whether DNC Chair Ken Martin should resign, on “Meet the Press”: “No. Ken Martin is a Paul Wellstone Democrat. … Now, could he have handled this autopsy better? Absolutely. He has said he should have. Should he be working more with state parties to make sure they’re funded into ’26 and ’28? Absolutely. But I don’t believe he should resign.” — Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) on his fellow GOP colleagues’ reaction to his legislation to block Trump’s “Anti-Weaponization Fund,” on ABC’s “This Week”: “A lot of them tell me they support it. We’ll see how many actually join us in the effort by putting pen to paper and putting their name on it.”
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TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.
7 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR 1. SCARY STUFF: A frightening exchange of gunfire at a White House security checkpoint yesterday evening ended with the gunman shot dead by law enforcement, the Secret Service said, per the AP. The dramatic incident, which unfolded while Trump was nearby inside the White House, also left a bystander struck. The deceased gunman was identified as 21-year-old Nasire Best. CNN’s Curt Devine reveals that Best had a history of mental health issues, including being involuntarily committed last year after trying to get into the White House complex, and also had seemingly threatened Trump in an online post. 2. SURVEY SAYS: The latest WSJ poll confirms Trump’s recent downward trajectory, with his approval rating slipping to 41 percent and Democrats opening up an 8-point lead on the generic congressional ballot. It also found a striking plunge in Republican voters’ strong approval of Trump, from 75 percent in January to 57 percent now. 3. EBOLA + THE DECONSTRUCTED ADMINISTRATIVE STATE: Unlike in 2014, when the federal government mounted a whole-of-government response to Ebola, the Trump administration so far “is relying largely on fragmented agency conference calls,” WaPo’s Lena Sun and Lauren Weber report. It’s a crucial test for a federal public health apparatus DOGE and other cuts have pared back, and the admin is looking for a czar to lead the effort. The White House maintains it has coordinated across agencies and “mobilized a swift and robust response.” 4. MAJOR CFTC INVESTIGATION: “How Prediction Markets and Crypto Firms Steamrolled a Watchdog Agency,” by NYT’s Sharon LaFraniere and David Yaffe-Bellany: The agency “has been mowed down by the powerful business interests it is supposed to oversee … In the past 16 months of the Trump administration, the commission has shrunk its work force, purged career officials, sharply curtailed crypto enforcement and helped out prediction markets at virtually every turn … The gutting of the agency is particularly notable because of the Trump family’s deep ties to the crypto and prediction industries.” The White House denied any conflicts of interest. 5. RED-LIGHT REDISTRICT: South Carolina Republicans’ gerrymandering push is in limbo after state legislators said they wouldn’t be able to pass a new map before early voting begins Tuesday, The Post and Courier’s Nick Reynolds reports. What happens next — and whether they’ll be able to push through new district lines this cycle — remains unclear. The GOP plans to have a final vote in Columbia as soon as Tuesday night. Democrats are urging voters to turn out as early as possible and cast votes, to up the ante for a court to scrap an ongoing election. 6. RETIREMENT WATCH: Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-Fla.), who at 83 has been gone from the office for nearly a month post-surgery, isn’t going anywhere, she told Axios’ Andrew Solender and Marc Caputo. “A crazy crazy rumor,” she said of chatter that she might announce her retirement. “I’m almost distraught. It’s not true.” Wilson’s denial came despite multiple sources telling Axios that she’d called people yesterday about not running for reelection. 7. THE AFFORDABILITY AGENDA: Trump’s proposed budget cuts to affordable housing programs have hit a wall in the form of congressional Republicans, POLITICO’s Cassandra Dumay reports. Where OMB wants to do away with whole HUD programs that give state and local governments grants to preserve and construct housing, GOP appropriators intend to keep the money flowing.
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TALK OF THE TOWN |
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ANNALS OF DIPLOMACY — “British Politics Is Melting Down. The New Ambassador Is Tuning It Out,” by Felicia Schwartz in POLITICO Magazine: “People who know [Christian] Turner and have talked to him recently say he’s determined to advance the U.K.’s agenda in the U.S., without getting derailed by the political jockeying across the Atlantic.” YESTERDAY IN THE BAHAMAS — Donald Trump Jr. and Bettina Anderson had a small wedding celebration on a private island, with his siblings but not father in attendance, per NYT’s Tammy LaGorce. A bigger White House party is expected to follow. Anderson, who’s planning to change her name to Trump, was originally interested in a White House wedding, but amid the war Trump Jr. favored a more private approach, CNN’s Kristen Holmes and Betsy Klein report. “Friends of Trump Jr. told CNN they have never seen the groom so happy.” WHAT YOUR PLAYBOOK AUTHOR IS READING — The Guardian’s Pablo Iglesias Maurer and Jeff Rueter scooped the expected U.S. Men’s National Team roster for the World Cup, set to be announced Tuesday. Alejandro Zendejas and Gio Reyna are in; Tanner Tessmann and Diego Luna are out. WEDDING — Mariam Khan and Phillip McCoy, via NYT: “He is currently an F-16 instructor pilot. … She is a supervising producer at ABC News in Washington, currently covering the State Department, the Pentagon and global affairs. … The couple married on May 3 at Oak Grove at Jorgensen Farms in New Albany, Ohio.” HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.) … Kasie Hunt … former Reps. Charlie Dent (R-Pa.) and Doug Lamborn (R-Colo.) … National Endowment for Democracy’s Damon Wilson … Nick Baumann … Rory Cooper of Teneo … NPR’s Tom Bowman … Mark Bescher of Legacy Public Policy … Signal Group’s Chelsea Koski … Ben Mullany … former Connecticut Gov. John Rowland … Rana Abtar … POLITICO’s Sophie Blaylock and Isa Domínguez … Giulia DiGuglielmo of Rep. Darrell Issa’s (R-Calif.) office … Ryan Dukeman … Dan Horning … Tyler Boyles of the American Conservation Coalition Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.
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A message from Vapor Technology Association: Youth vaping is at its lowest level in over twelve years — a direct result of common-sense restrictions that the vapor industry championed. The FDA's own data tells a clear story. Yet policy has failed to keep pace with science.
With new leadership now in place, Acting Commissioner Diamantas has a narrow and consequential window to deliver real reform built on three pillars: transparent, evidence-based scientific standards for PMTA review so e-cigarette manufacturers know exactly what is required; consistent enforcement against bad actors failing those standards— the actual source of the problem; and surgical enforcement criteria that target predatory design and youth-facing marketing, not the compliant products millions of American smokers depend on.
Protecting youth and preserving adult consumer access are not competing goals. A real and well-designed regulatory framework achieves both. The science is clear. The leadership is in place. It's time to fix the system and save vaping. |
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