| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco and Makayla Gray On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and POLITICO’s White House and foreign affairs correspondent Eli Stokols consider what the arrival of Donald Trump means for Davos.
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| Good Wednesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard. It’s a big day ahead — let’s get to it. In today’s Playbook … — Trump arrives in Davos for crisis talks. We’ve got all the goss from the Swiss Alps. — Judgment day for the Fed as Lisa Cook has her day in court. POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein tells you what to expect. — And who was the last second lady to give birth while in office? Lodge your guess and read on to find out.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
President Donald Trump speaks before departing the White House on Tuesday, Jan. 20. | Alex Brandon/AP Photo | SWISS PLEAS: Trump is set to arrive in Davos today for what is gearing up to be a make-or-break day for the Western alliance. The president is due on stage at the World Economic Forum for a speech at 8:30 a.m. Eastern ahead of crunch talks on Greenland with NATO allies. “This will be an interesting trip,” Trump smiled as he departed the White House last night. “I have no idea what’s going to happen.” He sure didn’t: Annoyingly for the president, Air Force One had to turn around 45 minutes later and return to Washington due to an electrical issue. Trump eventually left Joint Base Andrews for a second time — on a different aircraft — just after midnight, almost three hours late, so there’s a fair chance his speech today might be delayed. How the president’s feeling: Tired, you’d imagine. He didn’t get home from the college football national championship game on Monday night until well after 2 a.m., and then did that 104-minute press briefing at the White House yesterday. Now he’s prepared for a busy day of diplomacy with a very extended, back-and-forth overnight flight to Switzerland. Trump’s critics will be watching the video feeds today for any extra-long “blinks.” How Davos is feeling: Nervous, per POLITICO’s Jamie Dettmer, who’s on the ground in Switzerland. “All eyes here in Davos were on Trump’s White House press conference yesterday to see what hints he might give,” Jamie emails in to say. “The question Davos stalwarts were puzzling over is which Trump will turn up — and how combative will he be? Will he pull back from the brink and moderate his threats, or forge on? Trump’s laconic response when asked how far he'll go to get Greenland — ‘You’ll find out’ — wasn’t seen here as reassuring.” Also not reassuring: Trump’s Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissing Denmark as “irrelevant” in a combative presser overnight. The fundamental issue for all America’s NATO allies — and they are still allies — is whether to fight fire with fire and deliver a hardline economic response, or whether to smile and flatter and offer up shiny baubles for some kind of deal. “Some leaders still hold out hope that while the transatlantic alliance is now fractured, a full rupture can be avoided,” Jamie reports from Davos. And let’s be clear: That’s still the most likely outcome. Trump actually likes most of these allied leaders — and he also likes NATO, now he’s calling the shots. Yesterday’s market tremors at the prospect of a Western schism won’t make such an outcome any more enticing to the White House. And while the threat of U.S. tariffs is clearly real, it’s hardly a new one — and allied leaders know the Supreme Court may yet strike them all down. Most importantly: Few believe that hostile U.S. military action against a NATO ally is a realistic prospect, given the overwhelming opposition among both the American public and congressional Republicans. Sen Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) told CNBC yesterday that any “kinetic action” or “increase in military presence” in Greenland would trigger a war powers resolution supported by Senate Republicans. “I think we could easily get veto-proof majorities,” Tillis said. And NYT reports there has been no contingency planning at the Pentagon for an invasion.
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See the impact. | | | | So let’s take a step back: We’ve seen the pattern so many times over the past 12 months — Trump taking an extreme position, creating a lot of noise, and then suddenly cutting a deal he can call victory — that it’s surely possible we’ll see it play out again here. “We are not going to transfer title under a force-of-arms threat,” Trump’s pal Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) tells the WSJ. “But the idea of finding a way to bolster Greenland’s capabilities and to have more control by us is coming together. Enough with the Greenland drama. It’s all going to work out.” And most business leaders at the summit are indeed pretty chill, POLITICO’s Anne McElvoy texts Playbook from a Davos cocktail party to say. “One affable finance CEO was telling guests here that Greenland is just a national security issue, and that Trump is shaking Europe to spend more on defense,” she writes. “The era when ‘Davos Man’ was traumatized by Trump has been replaced by a bit of ‘we can ride this out.’” But European leaders are still preparing for the worst, POLITICO’s Zoya Sheftalovich and colleagues report in a six-bylined scoop from Brussels. “EU leaders have toughened their position and want the European Commission to ready its most powerful trade weapon,” they write. “Germany has joined France in saying it will ask the Commission to explore unleashing the Anti-Coercion Instrument at the emergency EU leaders' summit in Brussels on Thursday.” The Anti … what now? This is the toughest economic response in the EU’s arsenal, its so-called “trade bazooka.” It means hitting back with a barrage of measures including tariffs and export restrictions, while excluding U.S. companies from lucrative tenders. "We have a set of instruments at our disposal," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said this week. “We do not want to use them. But if we have to use them, then we will.” But here’s the thing: Even if both sides do step back from the brink over Greenland, something much bigger, and perhaps unstoppable, is now underway. There’s a reason why Canadian PM Mark Carney’s Davos speech — warning of a “rupture” in the Western alliance — went utterly viral yesterday. It rang true across nations that for 80 years have viewed American military protection and U.S. respect for a rules-based order as articles of faith. Now that illusion has been shattered, there’s no going back. Autonomy will have to follow. The immediate fallout: The bitter dispute over Greenland means plans for Trump to sign security guarantees for Ukraine while in Davos have been put on ice, per the FT. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy may not even now attend the summit, preferring to stay in Kyiv — where a barrage of Russian military attacks have left half the capital city without power in freezing conditions. But Trump’s plan to unveil a “Board of Peace” for Gaza is still on track for tomorrow, although it’s far from clear who’s taking part. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu added his name overnight, joining the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Vietnam, Kazakhstan, Hungary, Argentina and Belarus. It’s quite the list. But before all that: Davos has a Trump speech to look forward to this morning, and the president gave us a sneak preview yesterday. Asked if he will focus on housing and affordability — as briefed by optimistic White House aides with an eye on the midterms — Trump said … not so much. “I think more than anything else, what I'm going to be speaking about is the tremendous success that we've had in one year,” he told reporters. “I didn't think we could do it this fast.” Republican strategists will be watching with gritted teeth. Further viewing: Trump is due to be interviewed on CNBC at 1 p.m. Eastern, shortly after meeting with CEOs in Davos.
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| | | | COURT IN THE ACT SCOTUS TAKES ON THE FED: It’s a massive morning at the Supreme Court today, with nothing less than the independence of the Federal Reserve on the line. Justices are set to hear oral arguments at 10 a.m. in Trump’s push to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and so effectively seize control of the central bank. Fed Chair Jerome Powell — facing unprecedented pressure of his own from Trump’s DOJ — is expected to attend today’s hearing. Every trader on Wall Street will also be watching like a hawk. How to watch like a pro: POLITICO’s legal ace Josh Gerstein emails in with this essential take … Red on red action: This should be a battle royale between two of the top conservative litigators at the Supreme Court, Josh tells us. In Trump’s corner: Solicitor General John Sauer, who scored a crucial victory for Trump in the presidential immunity case before the 2024 election and has stacked up an impressive series of high court wins for the White House in recent months. In Cook’s corner: former Solicitor General Paul Clement, who’s regarded as the preeminent conservative SCOTUS advocate of his generation. The intrigue: Clement — who twice parted ways with law firms to continue representing conservative causes — has turned heads by taking on several high-profile legal fights against the administration over the past year. He’s repping liberal-leaning law firm WilmerHale in its bid to void a Trump executive order targeting the firm, as well as the judges of Maryland’s federal district court in an unusual lawsuit the Justice Department filed against them over rules for deportation challenges. So who’s going to win? Cook seems to have the edge going into today’s argument, for three reasons. First —the court’s declaration last May in a ruling on other Trump firings that the Fed “is a uniquely structured, quasi-private entity that follows in the distinct historical tradition of the First and Second Banks of the United States.” Second — the justices’decision in October to let Cook remain in her job, even though the court has allowed Trump’s firing decisions to stand in nearly every other such dispute. And third —comments Justice Brett Kavanaugh made in December that he shares concerns that sweeping presidential firing powers could undermine the independence of the Fed. The battleground: Expect plenty of jockeying around what due process, if any, Cook is entitled to before being dismissed over allegations — which she’s denied — about misleading banks on mortgage applications. Trump’s side says she’s not entitled to any; Cook’s says Congress’ adoption of a “for cause” standard for Federal Reserve firings means she’s entitled to clear notice of the charges and some kind of hearing to rebut them. Also look for how the Trump administration’s recent move to investigate Powell seeps into the argument, fueling perceptions of an out-of-control executive. The justices to watch: With the liberal justices expected to side with Cook, courtwatchers are likely to zero in on Chief Justice John Roberts, who often votes with Kavanaugh, as well as Justices Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett, to possibly fill out a majority for the Biden-appointed Fed governor.
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➡️ Subscribe Now | | | | | TRAIL MIX RACE OF THE DAY — The view from Alaska: A new poll, commissioned by the DSCC and shared with Playbook, puts former Rep. Mary Peltola two points ahead of Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) in an Alaska Senate race matchup, 49 percent to 47 percent. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has targeted Alaska as one of four must-win states if Dems are to retake the Senate in November. Peltola’s entry into the race was seen as a major boon for Dems’ chances to unseat Sullivan — though it’s an uphill struggle in a state that broke for Trump by 13 points in 2024. See the poll OFF THE SIDELINES: Michele Tafoya, a veteran NFL sideline reporter and broadcaster, filed papers to run as a Republican for Senate in Minnesota, CNN’s David Wright reports. She will formally launch her campaign today. REDISTRICTING RODEO: The redistricting commission created by Maryland Gov. Wes Moore voted to approve a new congressional map that could edge out Rep. Andy Harris, the state’s lone GOP lawmaker, NBC’s Jane Timm reports. The map now heads to the state legislature … And California Republicans have filed an emergency appeal to the Supreme Court to block the state’s new maps, which they claim were illegally racially gerrymandered, per NYT’s Abbie VanSickle and Laurel Rosenhall. POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein tells Playbook it’s a “long shot” bid. SURVEY SAYS: A new internal poll for Democrat Alex Kelloff’s Colorado congressional campaign finds him trailing GOP Rep. Jeff Hurd 48 percent to 39 percent. But Hurd’s job approval is underwater — more voters in the district rate his performance as poor than excellent or good — and 48 percent say they view Trump very unfavorably, according to the poll shared exclusively with Playbook. The polling memo
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| | | | BEST OF THE REST HOW DO YOU SOLVE A PROBLEM LIKE MARIA? Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado took a spin around the Hill yesterday, speaking at the House Foreign Affairs Committee but offering few new details on a timeline for free elections, Playbook’s Ali Bianco reports. Machado was “sketchy on specifics,” as Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-Calif.) put it to reporters, though did confirm that “her timeline is different than the president’s,” per Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.). No surprises there. Members of the committee left singing Machado’s praises and unified in their endorsement for her to lead the country. And in a news conference with Miami’s Cuban Republican set, Machado and the lawmakers said elections must be held quickly. “It’s a process that we want to be as short as possible,” Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart (R-Fla.) said. The group was also clear that the future of Venezuela cannot include any of the current leadership — even as Trump heaps praise on interim President Delcy Rodriguez. It’s a potential flashpoint in the months ahead. TRUMP’S TESTING GROUND: Trump’s aggressive efforts to expand his presidential power have collided in Minnesota, POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney writes in a must-read stepback on the simmering tensions. “A year into his second term, Trump has turned this Midwestern blue state into a testing ground for his most draconian policies — including mass deportation,the threat of military deployments on U.S. soil and the unilateral cancellation of nutrition assistance and disaster relief funding for cities and states run by his adversaries. The onslaught has placed Minnesota in the eye of a storm.” The latest from Minnesota: Federal prosecutors subpoenaed Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey as DOJ escalates its investigation into the state’s response, POLITICO’s Aaron Pellish and Gregory Svirnovskiy report. Walz’s office slammed the investigation as a “partisan distraction.” The enforcement tactics in Minneapolis have also drawn fierce criticism from the city’s police, who said U.S. citizens and even a police officer have been targeted, per NYT. Coming attractions: VP JD Vance will visit Minnesota tomorrow for a speech and talks with local leaders, MS NOW’s Jake Traylor and Alex Tabet scoop. MEANWHILE AT DOJ: Lindsey Halligan is officially out from her post as interim U.S. attorney for eastern Virginia following a combative back-and-forth with federal judges. AG Pam Bondi announced Halligan’s exit on X last night, calling it a “significant loss” for the DOJ and the result of “deeply misguided” circumstances.
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➡️ Learn More about POLITICO Pro | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | CONGRATULATIONS — Usha Vance’s announcement that she’s pregnant with her and JD Vance’s fourth child puts her on course to become only the second second lady in recorded history to give birth during a term in office. The only known precedent is Ellen Colfax, the wife of Schuyler Colfax — VP to President Ulysses S. Grant — who gave birth to a son in 1870. Interestingly, the similarities don't end there. Like Vance, Colfax was a midwesterner at heart, having moved to Indiana as a child. Colfax, too, became a writer — covering the Indiana Senate as a journalist — before moving into Republican politics in his 30s. He even sported a pretty mean beard. But watch out JD: Colfax’s dreams of becoming president were never realized, despite his best efforts, and he left public life under a cloud. It’s a tough old game. LOVE IS IN THE AIR — White House deputy chief of staff Dan Scavino revealed on Katie Miller’s podcast that he’s planning a “surprise wedding” at Mar-a-Lago next month, turning his Feb. 1 engagement party into the big day with his fiancée Erin Elmore, per the NY Post’s Emily Goodin. “I wasn’t supposed to say this,” Scavino said on the pod, “but I’m an honest guy.” They’ll overlap with Trump adviser Alex Bruesewitz and his fiancée Carolina Urrea, who are also set for a South Florida wedding that weekend. WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Keith Kellogg is now on the advisory board at BRG after wrapping up his appointment as special envoy to Ukraine. NO, SHE’S NOT RUNNING — But Michelle Obama will appear on Alex Cooper’s “Call Her Daddy” podcast today. MEDIAWATCH — “Netflix Upgrades Warner Bros. Deal to All Cash; Shareholders to Vote on $83 Billion Sale by April,” by Variety’s Todd Spangler: “Netflix has officially agreed to pay all cash for Warner Bros. Discovery‘s studios and HBO Max business — a move aimed at thwarting Paramount Skydance’s rival takeover campaign.” CNN employees (and fans) are holding their breath. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Harvard’s Institute of Politics is announcing six new resident fellows and two visiting fellows for the spring. The resident fellows are: former CFPB Director Rohit Chopra, former Canadian deputy PM and Ukraine economic adviser Chrystia Freeland, former Education Secretary Aimee Rogstad Guidera, former St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones, former White House deputy chief of staff Christopher Liddell and Washington Examiner political correspondent Byron York. The visiting fellows are: former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. TRANSITIONS — Maggie Amjad is now deputy comms director for Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson’s gubernatorial campaign. She previously worked for the Virginia Democratic Party. … Sydney Redden is now associate director of global external affairs at IP House. She previously worked for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Global Innovation Policy Center. … Sarah Swinehart Massey is launching comms firm Rising Tide Strategies. She previously was at the One Campaign and is a Hill alum. … … Maya Krishna-Rogers will be VP of media relations for JPMorgan Chase’s policy and advocacy comms team. She most recently worked for Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.). … Madi Bidermann is now acting chief of staff at the Education Department, after serving as deputy assistant secretary for comms strategy. Rachel Oglesby, previously the chief of staff, is joining August Strategy Group as a director. ENGAGED — Tim Bertocci, USNA adjunct professor and a Dean Phillips and Tim Walz alum, proposed to Patti Ross, chief of staff for Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), outside of the Library of Congress on New Year’s Eve. Pic WEEKEND WEDDINGS — Jacob Reses, chief of staff for VP JD Vance, and Rachel Altman, director of outreach at the Foundation for American Innovation, got married on Sunday at Lakewood Country Club in Rockville, Maryland. Pic — Juliana Henao, digital advertising manager at FP1 Strategies, and Matt Gregory, associate in the national security practice group at Latham & Watkins, got married on Saturday. The couple met through mutual friends getting drinks at Off the Record. Pic by Ale Castellanos … Another pic … SPOTTED: Lindsey Curnutte and Jeff Naft, Micah Bock and Tierin-Rose Mandelburg, Sam Markstein, Morgonn McMichael Brown and Mitch Brown, Sofia Ruiloba and Will Salmon, Rey Anthony, Zac Brumback, Maria Giannopoulos and James Hunt, Joey Brown and Hans Bjontegard. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Mia de Graaf, executive editor at Business Insider, and Manny Fidel, host of the “No Such Thing” podcast, welcomed Lula on Sunday. Pic — Andrew Steinberg, a partner at Venable LLP, and Jenna Steinberg, senior managing consultant of global analytics at Gallup, welcomed Sadie Lennon Steinberg on Saturday. Pic BIRTHWEEK (was Monday): Lily Patricof of the Juno Fund HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) … Rep. Addison McDowell (R-N.C.) … C-SPAN’s Sam Feist … former AG Eric Holder … Tyler Cowen … Jordan Grossman … Will Holley of Firehouse Strategies … Getty Images’ Win McNamee … John Shinkle … POLITICO’s Jen Haberkorn … Will Bunch … Bob Sensenbrenner … ABC’s Chris Donovan … Edelman’s Sean Neary and Lyla Shaibi … Lauren Grella … Michael Comer … Becca Glover ... Steve Rosenthal ... Campbell Spencer … former Rep. Matt Salmon (R-Ariz.) … Paloma Chacon … former Commerce Secretary Gary Locke … Jim Davidson ... Jonathan Grella of JAG Public Affairs … American Cleaning Institute’s Corey Brooks Pace … Jack Weiss … MS NOW PR’s Olivia Sieff … Andrea Corro of the National Immigration Forum … Indigov/Granicus’ Bailey Romans … Washington Monthly’s Matt Cooper … Loren DeJonge Schulman … Sarah Sellman Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Garrett Ross. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misstated the date that the Oscar nominations will be announced. It will be tomorrow.
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