| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Dasha discuss the mood among MAGA world as the war in Iran expands — and where President Donald Trump’s support from the base might run out.
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| Good Tuesday morning, and happy St Patrick’s Day. This is Jack Blanchard, packing the kids back off to school and trying real hard not to be mad at the weather forecasters about yesterday. At least they said sorry. Today’s forecast: Don’t get me started. NEW THIS MORNING — Netflix is chill: “There was no political interference” from Trump in the epic Netflix vs. Paramount battle to take over Warner Bros., Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos tells POLITICO. “The president is interested in entertainment and interested in deals,” Sarandos said, “so he was curious about the mechanics of things and how things were going to go or whatever, but he made it very clear that this was under the DOJ.” No hard feelings? Trump ally David Ellison’s Paramount ultimately won the day, but Sarandos has no complaints about how it went down. “I think for us it was always a business transaction, was always a well-regulated process in the U.S.,” he said. Sarandos was speaking exclusively to POLITICO’s Carrie Budoff Brown for a wide-ranging conversation about the Warner Bros. deal and the broader media landscape. Read the full Q&A here In today’s Playbook … — MAGA world in meltdown as Iran tightens its grip on the Strait of Hormuz. — It’s Election Day in Illinois, with plenty of Dem-on-Dem action to watch. — And messages of support for Susie Wiles from both sides of the aisle.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | MAGA’S WORST NIGHTMARE: It’s the 18th day of Trump’s war in Iran, and MAGA world is starting to panic. Dire straits: Trump allies who prayed for a short, sharp victory akin to the president’s previous military excursions have seen their hopes fade, POLITICO’s Megan Messerly reports this morning. Now fear is rising that Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz has America boxed in — and that escalation may be Trump’s only viable option. Cards on the table: “We clearly just kicked [Iran’s] ass in the field, but, to a large extent, they hold the cards now,” said one person close to the White House, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the war. “They decide how long we’re involved — and they decide if we put boots on the ground. And it doesn’t seem to me that there’s a way around that, if we want to save face.” No easy way out: “The terms have changed,” said a second person familiar with the U.S. operation in Iran. “The off-ramps don’t work anymore because Iran is driving the asymmetric action.” To be clear: Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth say the war has been a stunning military success, and there’s little doubt U.S. and Israeli firepower have caused overwhelming damage to Iran’s command structures and military capabilities. There’s a reason why this Al Jazeera op-ed — in which Doha academic Muhanad Seloom makes a compelling case that the war has been a military triumph for the U.S. and Israel — was going viral in D.C. circles last night. But what level of military success will be required to actually get the Strait reopened? What level of security will large shipping companies require to take the risk? In Trump’s own words, “it only takes a couple of people to screw up the Strait. A couple of terrorists. Their military is defeated, but all you need is a few people dropping mines here and there and you louse it up.” Breaking this morning: A tanker “anchored off the coast of the United Arab Emirates near the Strait of Hormuz was hit by a projectile early Tuesday, the first such strike in and around the vital waterway in five days,” NYT’s John Yoon reports.
| | | | A message from BlackRock: The world will need up to $85 trillion over the next 15 years to modernize and build the infrastructure of the future. BlackRock is proud to support the development of skilled tradespeople to help meet growing infrastructure demand across the U.S. Click here to watch. | | | | The concern among some Trump allies is that ensuring the free flow of oil through the strait “could require securing parts of Iran’s shoreline,” Megan writes, “a step that would almost certainly mean putting American troops on Iranian soil.” This is not idle conjecture. The head of the International Maritime Organization told the FT today that naval escorts will not “100 percent guarantee” the safety of ships in the strait. And as the NYT reported last week, retired Air Force Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote, a senior air strategist who was tasked by the U.S. military with war-gaming this exact scenario in the 2000s, concluded a full invasionary force would be needed. “Short of that, the only lasting solution to the strait is a diplomatic one,” Hinote said. Good luck with that. Reports have popped up here and there about possible back-channel negotiations between Washington and Tehran, but nothing’s been confirmed. And this is an Iranian regime which — despite all the bombs — remains pretty well entrenched, WaPo’s Ellen Nakashima and colleagues report. You’ll note that Trump hasn’t said much about handpicking Iran’s new leadership recently. And he hasn’t mentioned securing the “freedom of the people” since the first day of the war. There’s every chance the emergent regime will be more radical than ever. “The Gulf nations felt that the Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was 86] would have died soon anyway, and that would have been a great opening for the opposition and a new regime,” a third White House ally tells Playbook’s Dasha Burns. “Now you’ve killed the guy, and the next guy is even more radical. You killed his dad and wife in an airstrike … Do you think he’ll be more or less reasonable?” Help wanted: Trump’s sudden desire to bring in allied assistance, two weeks into the war, is indicative of where the situation stands. But as Playbook set out in detail yesterday morning, few if any allies are likely to take up the call. (The EU was the latest to confirm that it’s a “no.”) And it’s not just because they’re still mad about Greenland. Trump keeps attacking British PM Keir Starmer for his reluctance to get involved — but getting sucked into ill-fated American-led wars in the Middle East has proven catastrophic for European leaders’ popularity in the past. Just ask Tony Blair. Popularity may also become an issue at home. The same Trump ally quoted above tells Dasha that American boots on the ground in Iran would be the “third rail” for many MAGA supporters. “I think you're talking like Nixon-level ‘Watergate’ approval,” the person said. “If we do boots on the ground, Dems will take the Senate. Dems already basically have the House. And you know, you're going to be in a really bad position going into a general election for president in ’28.” Quite how much Trump cares about 2028 — or even 2026 — is unclear. The president will not be on the ballot and said bluntly yesterday that ending Iran’s nuclear ambitions is “much more important than short term or even long term oil prices.” (Midterm voters may or may not agree with that assessment.) Trump increasingly looks like a leader with only one thing on his mind — legacy. So … what comes next? Cuba, apparently. “I do believe I'll be ... having the honor of taking Cuba. That's a big honor. Taking Cuba in some form,” Trump told reporters yesterday. “I mean, whether I free it, take it … I think I can do anything I want with it, you want to know the truth.” Expect plenty more discussion on all this today, at a series of St Patrick’s Day events. First, VP JD Vance will speak at the Naval Observatory around 9 a.m. alongside Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin. Trump will then host Martin in the Oval Office at 11 a.m. — with press welcomed in for the start — before heading to the Capitol for a “Friends of Ireland” lunch just after 12 p.m. Trump and Martin will also participate in the traditional “Shamrock Bowl” presentation at the White House later this afternoon. AND FINALLY … SPORTS BLINK: Iran's football federation is in discussions with FIFA about moving their World Cup matches from the United States to Mexico due to concerns about the safety of their players, Reuters reports overnight.
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Skilled trades offer growing opportunity and strong earnings. Watch Billy's story. | | | | TRAIL MIX ELECTION DAY IN ILLINOIS: It’s a big primary day for Democrats in Illinois as all eyes turn to the Land of Lincoln — which has seen an avalanche of spending from outside groups up and down the ballot. What to watch: POLITICO’s Andrew Howard has you covered with the must-watch trends today. Among them is the political muscle of Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, who’s been out on all fronts in favor of Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton against Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly in the hotly contested Senate race. It’s put Pritzker on the opposite side of many Black Democrats in the state. Tonight’s results will also test outside influence and spending, with a whopping $15 million total spent by just pro-crypto and pro-AI groups on these races. Plus, it’ll be the latest opportunity to see who is actually turning out this year. And another strange twist: Stratton, who’s in the race to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, touted a posthumous endorsement this weekend from the late Rev. Jesse Jackson. But Jackson’s family walked back the endorsement yesterday, saying they actually aren’t making any endorsements this cycle, POLITICO’s Aaron Pellish and Shia Kapos report. But what everyone is really wondering is whether AIPAC’s even more eye-popping $22 million bet in Illinois will pay off as a show of its political power, or whether tonight will be another fumble. “In three of the four Illinois House races it’s targeting, AIPAC appears to be using shell PACs to largely conceal where that money is coming from rather than spend from its main super PAC vehicle,” POLITICO’s Elena Schneider and Shia Kapos write this morning. “Strategists warn that AIPAC’s attacks on Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss … created an opening for progressive social media influencer Kat Abughazaleh … The group has pulled down all of its anti-Biss messaging, but it could prove too late.”
| | | | POLITICO Policy Outlook: Powering 6G The next generation of mobile communications technology — commonly known as 6G — promises to unlock a bold new digital future. On Wednesday, March 18, POLITICO will convene decision makers from government and industry for incisive conversations that explore what’s next for the 6G rollout — and what stands in the way. Register now to join us. | | | | | RACE OF THE DAY: Maine Gov. Janet Mills is going negative against her rival in the Democratic primary for Senate, with a new six-figure TV ad this morning slamming Graham Platner for his comments on sexual assault, Playbook’s Adam Wren reports. The Mills campaign is planning to enter a new phase of the primary with a more aggressive posture and ready to litigate Platner’s record, a person briefed on her strategy told Adam. Watch the ad Back in October, WaPo reported that Platner “responded dismissively to a cartoon about sexual assault in the military and downplayed the challenges service members face in reporting sexual assault.” Platner vehemently disavowed the unearthed comments, telling WaPo: “I don’t want people to judge me off the dumbest thing I said on the internet 12 years ago.” MORE FROM THE WILDERNESS: “Jeffries faces growing threat of 2027 rebellion,” by Axios’ Andrew Solender: “House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) could get caught in the undertow of the very blue wave he hopes to ride into power this November as a growing number of Democratic candidates tell Axios they can't commit to backing his leadership.”
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Hyperscale computing is driving infrastructure demand. At BlackRock's U.S. Infrastructure Summit, leaders explored data centers' impact. Learn more. | | | | BEST OF THE REST DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS: Trump said he’s requested his looming summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing be delayed by “a month or so” while he focuses on the war, WaPo’s Cate Cadell reports. That would suggest he’ll now be traveling to China around the start of May, although nothing is confirmed. It comes as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other top U.S. officials meet with their Chinese counterparts to discuss a new formalized approach to trade, NYT’s Ana Swanson writes. VAX NOT: The CDC’s vaccine advisory panel meeting this week is now effectively postponed. A federal judge blocked HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s appointments to the panel as the legal challenge to his vaccine policy changes plays out, POLITICO’s Lauren Gardner reports. BYE BYE BOVINO: Gregory Bovino — who as head of Border Patrol led some of the administration’s biggest immigration sweeps in Democrat-led cities — has told people he’s planning to retire by the end of the month, CBS’ Camilo Montoya-Galvez reports … Meanwhile, the last person in immigration detention from the administration’s crackdown of pro-Palestinian activists on college campuses — Leqaa Kordia — was released after a year in custody, per AP. What’s awaiting Markwayne Mullin: “Kristi Noem Bought 11 Warehouses to Use as ICE Jails. Now What?” by The Atlantic’s Nick Miroff: “The acquisitions kicked off a $38 billion makeover of the detention system that has been overseen by Noem’s chief adviser and alleged lover, Corey Lewandowski. … Their team has been racing to acquire properties and convert the warehouse sites … Now the change in leadership at DHS adds a new variable, one that puts the timeline for the warehouse conversions in doubt.” SCOTUS WATCH: The Supreme Court agreed to decide whether the Trump administration acted legally when it sought to end deportation protection for thousands of citizens of Haiti and Syria who were permitted to remain in the U.S. due to unrest in their home countries, POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein reports. “The justices also fast-tracked the lawsuits challenging Trump’s attempts to end ‘temporary protected status,’ with oral argument set to take place late next month.” IRONY ALERT: “Aide Accused by Hegseth of Leaking Is Hired for Intelligence Job,” by NYT’s Greg Jaffe and Julian Barnes: “Dan Caldwell, a former top Pentagon aide who was fired by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth after being publicly accused of leaking classified information, has been hired by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence."
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➡️ Get on the Invite List | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | PRAYERS FOR SUSIE — The shock announcement that Susie Wiles has early-stage breast cancer has sparked a moment of bipartisanship in the Beltway, with politicos on both sides of the aisle offering public support for the powerful White House chief of staff. Press secretary Karoline Leavitt lauded Wiles as a “strong leader” and “one of the nicest people I’ve ever met.” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, speaking with reporters, said Democrats will “support her in any way possible back to work in full and complete health.” WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Jim Durrett is now a principal at Invariant. He previously worked in VP JD Vance’s office. BACK FOR ANOTHER ROUND — The award-winning POLITICO Pub is returning to the U.K. Labour Party conference — this time with a beer garden overlooking the River Mersey — as part of our biggest presence at the British political party conferences to date. Invitation-only POLITICO Speakeasies will also pop up in Liverpool alongside the Conservative, Liberal Democrat and Reform UK gatherings. Uber will once again return as founding partner of the POLITICO Pub. More details here MEDIA MOVES — Juliegrace Brufke, a longtime Capitol Hill reporter, is launching a new media site called “Sources Say,” including a newsletter and podcast. … Noah Shachtman is joining the NYT as a contributing opinion writer. He previously worked at Rolling Stone and the Daily Beast. … Sam Janesch is now a national political reporter for the Philadelphia Inquirer. He previously worked at the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. TRANSITIONS — Marsha Espinosa is now chief strategy officer at Securin. She previously worked at Conexión Public Engagement and is a DHS alum. … Callie Strock is joining Speaker Mike Johnson’s team as deputy comms director. She previously worked at the Small Business Administration. … Ed Frank, Justin Gonzalez and Ashlei Horn have joined Concord Action. Frank, previously at the Consumer Technology Association, is now comms director. Gonzalez and Horn, both previously at No Labels, are now digital comms associate and national grassroots organizing director, respectively. WEEKEND WEDDING — Jimmy Peacock, a principal at Cornerstone Government Affairs, and Katherine Alexander got married in Atlanta this weekend. SPOTTED: Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.), Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa), Rebecca Angelson, Clay Armentrout, Mike Berg, Austin Chambers, Parker Carey, Casey Contres, Hooff Cooksey and Olivia Perez-Cubas, John Connell, Sophie Crowell, Alex Clark Dillie, Dee and Anna Duncan, Laura Engquist, Ed and Cathy Gillespie, Chris Hodgson, Dan Kunsman, Chris Marroletti, Patrick Mocete, David Planning, Parker Poling, Stephen Replogle, Jim Richards, Andrew and Maggie Romeo, Steve Ruppel and Mike Walsh. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Dave Joyce (R-Ohio) … Laurel Strategies’ Alan Fleischmann … former Reps. Denver Riggleman (R-Va.) and Cynthia McKinney (D-Ga.) … Tim Burger … former CIA Director Michael Hayden … POLITICO’s Connor Foxwell … Burson’s Judy Stecker … Sarah Owermohle … Mark Paustenbach … Joe Hines of Stand Up America … Bloomberg’s Kate Sullivan … NBC’s Sally Bronston Katz … Carl Leubsdorf … NRDC’s Mark Drajem … Motive Media’s Ben Miller … Tiffany Mullon … Larry Farnsworth … Jon Blum … Mary Schaper … Andrew Kovalcin of Advanced Advocacy … Veronica Pollock … Alex Ball … Mike Goscinski … Angie Goff … GW’s Ethan Porter … Myrlie Evers-Williams … 270toWin’s Allan Keiter … Paula Short … American Conservation Coalition’s Luke Dretske … Hank Butler … Hensey Fenton … Jay Malak … Data Foundation’s Nathan Varnell … Alexis Littrell … Eileen O’Connor … Yahoo’s Dylan Stableford … Anna Rafdal … Adeline DeYoung … Trey Sherman … Patrick Murphy of Murphy Strategics Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross. Corrections: Yesterday’s Playbook misstated the schedule for votes in Congress that day. Votes in the House were canceled. It also misstated the nature of President Donald Trump’s appearance with VP JD Vance scheduled for Monday. It also misstated where Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was traveling. He was in Paris on Monday.
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