| | | |  | | By Irie Sentner | | Presented by: |  | | | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | | 
President Donald Trump on Tuesday told reporters in the Oval Office his "worst cast" outcome from the war in Iran. | Mark Schiefelbein/AP | President Donald Trump’s administration still can’t seem to agree on why it went to war. Trump said it was his “opinion” that Iran would have attacked if the U.S. and Israeli strikes had not gone ahead. “If we didn’t do it, they were going to attack first,” Trump told reporters gathered in the Oval Office today. Asked if Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu had “forced your hand to launch these strikes,” Trump replied: “No, I might’ve forced their hand.” But that rationale differs significantly from the justification Secretary of State Marco Rubio gave when he told reporters at the Capitol yesterday that the administration “knew there was going to be an Israeli action” that would “precipitate an attack against American forces,” which the Pentagon then moved to preempt. That’s not to mention the shifting reasons Trump has given in phone interviews with at least 19 reporters since Saturday’s attack, which vary from regime change to nuclear weapons. In an interview with ABC, the president even suggested there was a personal dimension to the decision: Iran’s reported efforts to assassinate him in 2024. The president also acknowledged the “worst case” outcome, noting that someone could “takes over who’s as bad as” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the strikes — seeming to state his desire for regime change. At almost the same time, Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon’s policy chief, sought to distance the U.S. from Khamenei’s killing, which he called “Israeli operations,” and said America was focused on blunting Iran’s military capabilities. Colby said the goal of the operation “is certainly not nation building” and that it was “not going to be endless.” Regardless of rationale, the U.S. is now embroiled in a war with Iran that has rocked the Middle East, which Trump has projected will last at least a month. The U.S. embassies in Saudi Arabia and Lebanon today announced they were closing indefinitely, and the State Department urged Americans in 14 countries in the region, from Egypt to Oman, to flee as quickly as possible. But that will prove difficult, with more than 12,000 commercial flights canceled as Iranian missiles threaten key hubs like Dubai and Doha. The conflict is also causing stocks to slip, with the Dow dropping about 500 points amid rising oil prices as more than 3,000 ships — about 4 percent of the global shipping tonnage — remain stuck in the Persian Gulf. The Trump administration is now considering providing military protection to oil and gas tankers traversing the Strait of Hormuz in a bid to cool energy prices, POLITICO’s Ben Lefebvre and Jack Detsch report. And experts warn a prolonged war could be even more damaging to global energy markets, putting Trump’s “energy dominance” agenda to the test, NYT’s Brad Plumer and colleagues report. How it’s playing: “Dems use Iran to attack Trump on economy,” by POLITICO’s Joe Gould and Connor O'Brien For your radar: “Kash Patel gutted FBI counterintelligence team tasked with tracking Iranian threats days before US strikes, sources say,” by CNN’s Hannah Rabinowitz: “FBI Director Kash Patel fired a dozen agents and staff members from a counterintelligence unit tasked with monitoring threats from Iran … They were ousted for a simple reason: Each was involved in the investigation of [Trump’s] alleged retention of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate.” DOJ did not immediately respond to CNN’s request for comment. And the FBI said in a statement it “maintains a robust counterintelligence operation, with personnel all over the country.” Good Tuesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. This is Irie Sentner. Get in touch at isentner@politico.com.
| | A message from Anthropic: Binti uses Claude, built by Anthropic, to save social workers up to 75% of time per home study visit, so they can spend more time with children and families. See the impact | | | | | | 7 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | 1. TRAIL MIX: It’s the first primary day of the 2026 midterms, and the results rolling in tonight from elections across Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas will offer a glimpse of the direction both parties are moving as November approaches. Tonight’s biggest contests are, of course, in Texas, where Democrats will choose between Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico and Republicans will cast their votes among Sen. John Cornyn, Texas AG Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt — capping off the most expensive primary in U.S. history. Dial in down the ballot: Here’s what else you should be watching today, courtesy of POLITICO’s Andrew Howard A new wedge issue: “Ties to Israel plague Democrats in top primaries post-Gaza,” by POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman: “Israel, after a long, devastating war in Gaza, has become so unpopular among many voters in the Democratic base that major candidates in top primaries are using even small connections to the country’s political leaders to hit their opponents.” 2. NOEM ON THE HILL: DHS Secretary Kristi Noem is on the Hill defending her leadership of the department’s controversial immigration crackdown, POLITICO’s Eric Bazail-Eimil writes in. It’s her first appearance before Congress since immigration officers shot and killed two U.S. citizens in Minneapolis in January and comes as her agency remains without full funding as Democrats and some Republicans hold out for reforms of ICE and CBP. In one particularly tense exchange, retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) became irate, threatening to use aggressive procedural measures to bring Senate work to a standstill if Noem didn’t respond to his office’s questions about her agency’s crackdown in Charlotte, Eric reports. The retiring GOP senator has repeatedly called on Noem to resign. On thin ICE: “ICE training was slashed, records show, corroborating whistleblower claims,” by WaPo’s Sarah Blaskey: “[P]reviously undisclosed records obtained by The Post show that … ICE last year removed about 240 hours from its basic training program, or more than 40 percent of instructional time. … Asked about The Post’s findings, ICE acknowledged that the program has been accelerated by increasing the daily training time and adding an extra day of training each week but insisted that there had been no cuts to overall training hours, requirements or subject matter.” Dispatch from Trenton: “New Jersey’s new governor tackles ICE,” by POLITICO’s Daniel Han: “The confrontation gives [New Jersey Gov. Mikie] Sherrill an early chance to define her governorship, and a preview of how Democrats will try to thread the needle on immigration in a midterm year.” 3. REVERSING THE REVERSAL: After moving yesterday to walk away from its legal battle to impose damaging executive orders on law firms targeted by the president, the Trump administration today told the firms it now plans to withdraw that dismissal request — and gave them 30 minutes this morning to respond, NYT’s Michael Schmidt and colleagues report. “The situation remained fluid Tuesday morning. It was not immediately clear what legal strategy the administration would ultimately embrace or whether a court would allow the Justice Department to reverse course.” DOJ did not immediately comment. The White House declined to comment.
| | | | POLITICO Forecast The forces reshaping politics, policy and power are accelerating across regions and sectors. Drawing on POLITICO’s global reporting, Forecast connects the dots — from major global moments to behind-the-scenes developments — to help readers anticipate what comes next. Sign up for POLITICO Forecast. | | | | | 4. TIME FOR A JOB SEARCH: The White House last night told Labor Department chief of staff Jihun Han and deputy chief of staff Rebecca Wright to resign or else be fired amid an IG probe into allegations that they mistreated staff and misused tax dollars, NY Post’s Josh Christenson scoops. The senior aides, who were Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s top deputies, left the agency today after being placed on administrative leave in January. The Post reports that they were given a choice of “resigning or being fired by the White House Monday night.” Han, Wright and the White House did not immediately respond to the NY Post for comment. 5. REFUND FUN: “White House faces thousands of lawsuits as it tries to slow-walk tariff refunds,” by POLITICO’s Ari Hawkins: “According to court filings and half a dozen trade and customs experts, more than 2,000 refund-related cases are now pending at the New York-based U.S. Court of International Trade — a number that has grown by dozens since the Supreme Court struck down [Trump’s] global duties … Trade attorneys say they’re fielding a surge of calls from companies racing to take legal action to keep their refund claims from expiring.” 6. MINNESOTA HITS BACK: Minnesota last night sued the Trump administration to block it from freezing $243 million in Medicaid spending after VP JD Vance, the White House’s newly minted “fraud czar,” said the administration would stop the flow of money to the state, AP’s Audrey McAvoy reports. The state also launched an investigation into allegations of misconduct during the administration’s immigration crackdown that could lead to charges against federal immigration officers, including Greg Bovino, AP’s Sarah Raza and Hannah Fingerhut report. The administration did not respond to requests for comment for either story. 7. PETE PROFILE: “Pete Buttigieg in the Wilderness,” by The Atlantic’s Graeme Wood: “[T]hat is what Buttigieg seems to be doing now: pausing a bizarre, hyperaccomplished life so he can collect the final punch on the card, which is the one that indicates you have spent time living like an ordinary human being. The catch, unfortunately for Buttigieg, is that many people distrust this sort of thing, just as they distrust political ambition itself. Even a good man with honorable civic intentions is caught in a bind: having to be normal without trying to be normal.”
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| | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | LOOK AT THIS S--T — “Inside the race to contain 240 million gallons of sewage out of the Potomac,” by WaPo’s Dana Hedgpeth and Louie Palu: “It’s up to … [a] crew of roughly 30 workers and a slew of contractors to do the tough, dirty — and expensive — job of fixing the Potomac Interceptor, which carries 60 million gallons of wastewater daily … The Washington Post was given exclusive access to watch them work.” VANITY AFFAIR — “All the President’s Portraits,” by NYT’s Doug Mills and Larry Buchanan: “Since moving back in, President Trump has significantly altered the ‘People’s House.’ East Wing: gone. Oval Office: maximalized. Rose Garden: Mar-a-lago-ified. And the art? Lots of Trump. … never before has a sitting president displayed so much of his own image on the White House walls.” OUT AND ABOUT — The American Sugar Alliance and Sugar Association yesterday hosted their Keep it Sweet in America reception at Longworth as part of the American Sugar Alliance's annual fly-in. SPOTTED: Reps. Michelle Fischbach (R-Minn.), Jeff Crank (R-Colo.) and Julie Fedorchak (R-N.D.), Clark Ogilvie, Ken Clifford, John Altendorf, Mike DeFilippis, Ty Kennedy, Sean Murphy, JT Jezierski, Brian Sowyrda, Kyle Varner and Thomas Liepold. TRANSITIONS — Bry’Shawna Walker is now comms manager for Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker. She most recently worked for Rep. Shomari Figures (D-Ala.). … Alexandra DeRiso is joining Cozen O’Connor Public Strategies as a health care principal. She most recently worked for Rep. Troy Balderson (R-Ohio). … Dev Basumallik has joined LawAI. He most recently was at the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology. WEEKEND WEDDING — Lori Kalani, chief responsible gaming officer at DraftKings and a Cozen O’Connor alum, and Jay Thomas got married on Saturday in Treasure Island, Florida. The couple met in 1999 in Las Vegas and dated for 27 years. Pic … Another pic … SPOTTED: Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry, Louisiana AG Liz Murrill, Mississippi AG Lynn Fitch, Bernie Nash, Samantha Dravis, Sean Riley, Stanton Dodge, Jerry Kilgore, Amanda Klump and Alden Schacher. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Matthew Kincaid, an associate at Williams & Connolly, and Amanda Golden, senior associate at Sands Capital and an NBC, CNN and Google alum, on Wednesday welcomed Sadie Golden Kincaid. Pic Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.
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