| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Dasha discuss the fraught challenges facing Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi when she arrives for lunch with President Donald Trump today. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The man who won’t use email: Deputy Energy Secretary James Danly doesn’t regularly use his official work email and instead still relies on paper documents, a practice that’s raising concern among some staffers in the agency, three people familiar with the matter and two administration officials tell POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman, Zack Colman and Sophia Cai. You (ain’t) got mail: One of the people said Danly’s lack of email use has caused frustration among employees since it’s harder to get in touch with him. Deputy energy secretaries in the first Trump administration used their government email regularly, according to two people familiar with the matter. “He’s a dinosaur,” said one administration official who has worked with him. (Though they also conceded: “He’s a really smart guy.”) Danly is known as a meticulous official, often taking a deliberative approach that can prolong final decisions. “He wants to be the uber-lawyer,” said another one of the people familiar. All five were granted anonymity to speak candidly about sensitive internal department matters. Asked about Danly’s lack of email use, DOE spokesperson Katie Fairclough called it “a ridiculous story,” adding: “The deputy secretary plays a key role in leading the department and carrying out the president’s agenda, delivering for the American people. That’s what actually matters. The deputy secretary is deeply involved in the department’s work, is well liked, and remains accessible to staff at all times.” Good Thursday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, happy and grateful that you, at least, are still reading emails. Why not drop me a line? In today’s Playbook … — Trump intervenes as war in Iran spirals into a global energy crisis. — Who’s the latest prominent Dem to swear themselves off AIPAC? — And meet the Real Housewives … on Capitol Hill.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | A NEW PHASE: It’s Day 20 of the war in Iran, and the risk of a major escalation is spiraling fast. The president speaks: Trump last night demanded Israel and Iran halt their tit-for-tat strikes against the vital infrastructure serving the world’s largest gas field. Analysts now fear an all-out energy war, with catastrophic effects for global supplies. Remember: This stuff doesn't get fixed quickly once it’s been blown up. While you were sleeping: Qatar said its oil fields got hit by Iran a second time last night. Markets are trembling, with Japan’s Nikkei down 3 percent overnight. (Keep a close eye on the Dow when it opens this morning.) “This latest escalation feels like a turning point for markets, because the conflict is no longer just about military headlines or Strait of Hormuz closure,” Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo in Singapore, tells Reuters. “It is now hitting the plumbing of the global energy system.” Get ready: This latest energy shock hits a U.S. economy increasingly vulnerable to risk, POLITICO’s Morning Money author Sam Sutton reports. “The guardrails that protected the U.S. economy from Trump’s policy jolts are wearing thin,” he writes. “Inflation is ticking higher … Hiring has stagnated, wage growth has fallen, and market-based interest rates are climbing.” Gregory Daco, EY-Parthenon’s chief economist, tells Sam that the “typical buffers that would prevent any type of external shock — like an oil price shock — from disproportionately affecting the economy are smaller than usual.” Gulp: No wonder Trump is suddenly keen to halt the escalation. His dramatic intervention last night — a long Truth Social post promising Israel will carry out no further attacks on energy infrastructure, and demanding Iran pledge the same — carried with it a sizable threat. If Iranian strikes on Qatari oil fields continue, Trump said, America “will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field” — the Iranian portion of the colossal natural gas field that supplies energy around the world. Expect a flood of questions for Trump today about whether he knew in advance that Israel planned to escalate the conflict by targeting Iran’s oil fields. Trump claimed in his Truth Social post that he had no prior knowledge — but WSJ’s Alexander Ward reports that he both knew about and approved the attack, seeking to send a firm warning to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. And into this maelstrom today walks Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi for what was meant to be a visit to talk about cherry blossoms, trade and Trump’s upcoming trip to China. The visit has long been scheduled for early spring, with Japan gifting D.C. another 250 ornamental cherry blossom trees to mark America’s 250th birthday. But none of it has gone to plan. The freezing weather has pushed D.C.’s peak cherry blossom bloom into April, Trump’s trip to Beijing has been delayed and the president is raging that none of America’s allies wants to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. And of course Japan — which gets the vast majority of its energy from the Middle East — is one of five countries Trump has demanded sign up for the task. It’s a nightmarish situation for Takaichi. Popularity for Trump’s war is on the floor in Japan, polling at just 9 percent, per the NYT’s man in Tokyo Javier Hernández. And Japan is constitutionally bound to avoid overseas military excursions, except when the nation's survival is threatened. But Trump’s respect for adverse opinion polls — not to mention constitutional law — is famously low. So far, Takaichi has stalled for time, stating only that a naval operation would be “legally difficult.” (Let’s see if that line can hold through an Oval Office media Q&A this morning, and a working lunch with Trump, and a formal dinner at the White House tonight.) The pair do enjoy a strong personal relationship, having bonded last year over their shared fondness for the late Japanese PM Shinzo Abe. With Trump, that can often be enough. But there’s little sign of help from elsewhere. For NATO allies in Europe, “the answer remains a firm no,” Nick Vinocur, POLITICO’s chief foreign affairs correspondent in Brussels, emails in to say. “EU leaders meeting today will discuss plans to potentially reinforce two naval missions that the bloc operates in the Gulf area — but for now there are no plans to bring them anywhere near the Strait of Hormuz.” London calling: It’s a similar story in Britain, POLITICO's senior U.K. foreign correspondent Esther Webber tells Playbook. British PM Keir Starmer — whom Trump has criticized for his lack of fulsome support for the war — is “dead against being drawn further into the conflict,” Esther writes via WhatsApp. “But he wants to find a solution to restrictions on the trade route which could hit British voters in the pocket. He’s sounded more cooperative than some European leaders, insisting he wants to work with the U.S. to find a ‘viable plan.’” But there’s zero detail as to what that could mean — and it likely won’t be the “warships” Trump has demanded. Allies see only downside risk in being dragged into a war they deem illegal, unpopular and unnecessary, and for which the endgame is far from clear. Speaking of which: As Playbook noted yesterday, military experts say securing the Strait could be a colossal task. Last night, citing four sources, Reuters’ Phil Stewart and colleagues reported the Trump administration is considering deploying “thousands of U.S. troops” to reinforce its operation, with options under discussion including a deployment on Iran's shoreline to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Ground troops could also be deployed on Iran’s oil export hub Kharg Island, and to try to secure Iran’s nuclear material, Reuters reports. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Midterm meltdown: In case you needed a reminder about just how unpopular all of that would be, new polling from Data for Progress shared with Playbook finds a large majority of American voters — 68 percent — oppose deploying ground troops, with only 26 percent supportive. Opposition among Democrats and independents is even higher, while Republicans are split 50/50. That Republican split is still playing out very visibly in MAGA world, with Trump’s former counter-terrorism chief Joe Kent appearing on Tucker Carlson’s podcast last night to further stoke the flames. Kent, an ardent anti-interventionist, told Carlson the decision to go to war was essentially Israel’s, and that U.S. intelligence showed Iran posed no immediate threat. (Worth noting: Semafor reports he’s being investigated by the FBI for alleged leaks.) Kent will continue on the anti-war MAGA podcast circuit today, appearing alongside Candace Owens. And this won’t help: WaPo’s Noah Robertson, Jeff Stein and Riley Beggin report the Pentagon has asked the White House to approve a $200 billion request to Congress to fund the Iran war, a sum far greater than the total amount America has spent supporting Ukraine since 2022. It suggests U.S. military planners fear this conflict could drag on for more than just a couple more weeks. Expect lawmakers — not to mention anti-war members of MAGA — to have plenty to say about that. FURTHER READING: POLITICO’s Ian Ward maps out eight fault lines that could spell trouble for Trump’s coalition, from Iran to the MAHA movement and from Epstein to AI. FURTHER VIEWING: DNI Tulsi Gabbard and co. have another session on the Hill before the House Intelligence Committee at 8:30 a.m.
| | | | A message from BlackRock: Electrification is fueling one of the largest infrastructure expansions in modern history, with up to $85 trillion in global investment needed over the next 15 years. On BlackRock's podcast, The Bid, we explore how skilled workers are shaping the pace of growth. Click to listen. | | | | PLANET DEM FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — BACKING AWAY FROM AIPAC: Another high-profile Democrat is distancing himself from AIPAC, the pro-Israel lobbying group funnelling tens of millions of dollars into midterm primaries nationwide (and scoring limited results). Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) tells Playbook’s Dasha Burns on this week’s episode of “The Conversation” that he “wouldn't take AIPAC money.” Doing so, he said, would be akin to “endorsing what's happening right now.” He called Israeli settlement in the West Bank and wars in the region “disgusting.” Public data shows Gallego received contributions from pro-Israel groups until 2024. Asked if his perspective has now changed, Gallego replied: “Definitely.” The full episode drops tomorrow: Subscribe on Apple or Spotify KNIVES OUT FOR PRITZKER: Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker was riding high after his Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton sailed to victory in the Democratic primary to replace five-term Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.). Now he has a new problem: the Congressional Black Caucus, which says it’s on him to rehabilitate the relationship, POLITICO’s Brakkton Booker and Lisa Kashinsky report. The CBC is frustrated that Pritzker’s outsized financial support unfairly tilted the race in Stratton’s favor and away from their own candidate, Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill). As Pritzker eyes a potential 2028 presidential bid, some members signaled they won’t forget he crossed them. CALIFORNIA’S RECKONING: “Chavez allegations stun Newsom, top Democrats,” by POLITICO’s Jeremy White: “The bombshell revelations” about Cesar Chavez “reverberated across California and the western United States. … Within hours, elected leaders were confronting practical considerations like the profusion of streets, plazas, and other landmarks named for Chavez, along with the looming March holiday honoring the late leader on his birthday.”
| | | DEMOCRACY WATCH REPORT CARD: It’s democracy rating season, and the results so far paint a bleak picture of accelerating decline in the U.S. during Trump’s second term, Playbook’s Eli Okun reports. By the numbers: Freedom House’s 2025 assessment of global freedom, published this morning, gives the U.S. a score of 81. That’s the country’s lowest level since the organization began using its 100-point scale in 2002, and a 3-point decline from 2024. The V-Dem Institute’s democracy indices, released Tuesday, say the liberal democracy index suffered its worst-ever plunge, with the U.S. sliding from 20th place to 51st. “A change of three points or more is very rare” and triggers researchers to bring in extra vetting, Yana Gorokhovskaia, one of the Freedom House co-authors, told Playbook. “The speed with which American democracy is currently dismantled is unprecedented in modern history,” the Sweden-based V-Dem Institute report’s authors wrote, saying the level of liberal democracy has fallen back to 1965 levels. The U.S. lost points in Freedom House’s rating across three areas: Congressional dysfunction, capped by the longest government shutdown in history and compounded by the legislature ceding power to Trump; the administration’s weakening of anti-corruption safeguards, from firing IGs to slashing DOJ enforcement; and reduced freedom of expression through the administration’s targeting of non-citizens over speech. V-Dem also zeroed in on executive overreach, along with weakening of civil rights protections and the Trump administration’s attacks on the press. For political scientists, these indices are broadly used metrics of democratic resilience around the world, said Larry Diamond, a democracy scholar at Stanford’s Hoover Institution. Though each has a unique methodology, he added, “when they’re all pointing in the same direction … I think you have to take it very, very seriously.” Worth noting: Freedom House found overall decline worldwide last year, for the 20th time in a row. The U.S. has fallen 12 points in the past two decades through multiple administrations. And though these reports laid plenty of blame on Trump, they also cited issues from bipartisan Hill gridlock to political violence. And naturally, not everyone agrees. “The integrity of our elections has actually greatly improved since the 2020 election in many states,” said Hans von Spakovsky, a senior legal fellow at Advancing American Freedom and former FEC commissioner, who cited Republican-led reforms to voting laws at the state level. “Overall I think we’re actually in better shape than we’ve been in a long time.” “This is a ridiculous claim made by an irrelevant, blatantly biased organization,” White House assistant press secretary Olivia Wales said in a statement responding to the V-Dem report. “President Trump is a champion for freedom and democracy. … The President was resoundingly reelected by the American people based on his America First, commonsense agenda; now, he’s delivering on all his campaign promises — that’s democracy in action.” BEST OF THE REST FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: “Two companies with ties to veteran political operatives received at least $23 million in commissions for their role in the controversial Department of Homeland Security ad campaign that helped lead to Secretary Kristi Noem’s ouster,” POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman scoops this morning. “One of the firms, Safe America Media, received at least $15.2 million and was formed last February just a few days before it was awarded the limited-bid contract … Safe America Media was run by Republican operatives Mike McElwain and Patrick McCarthy, who have ties to a firm that did extensive media buying on President Trump’s 2024 campaign.” “The second firm, People Who Think, received at least $7.7 million from its 10 percent commission … People Who Think was co-founded by Jay Connaughton, who did work for Trump’s 2016 campaign.” Read the full story here SPEAKING OF DHS: Sen. Markwayne Mullin, Noem’s nominated replacement, gets a committee vote this morning after a rocky ride at yesterday’s confirmation hearing at the hands of Senate Homeland Security Chair Rand Paul. All eyes will be on Democratic Sen. John Fetterman to see if he helps Mullin over the line, our Inside Congress colleagues report. More on Mullin: “‘This is my pacifier.’ Why DHS nominee Mullin takes a bouncy ball everywhere,” by USA Today’s Zachary Schermele TROUBLE ON THE HORIZON: Speaker Mike Johnson is once again facing a tough negotiation with his chamber’s angsty right flank as he pushes to put an 18-month extension Section 702 spying authorities on the floor next week, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill and Mia McCarthy report. FOR YOUR RADAR: The European Parliament’s trade committee is voting today on an EU-U.S. trade deal. More from POLITICO’s Camille Gijs and Max Griera
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America's skilled workforce is critical to powering infrastructure. At BlackRock's U.S. Infrastructure Summit, leaders highlighted initiatives. Learn more. | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | HOUSEWIVES ON THE HILL — In a Washington run by a reality star, what’s seven more? Real Housewives from across the Bravo universe descended on the Capitol yesterday, spawning a frenzy in the Lincoln Room as the congressional press corps and lawmakers ducked away to mingle with Nene Leakes, Phaedra Parks, Candiace Dillard Bassett, Erika Jayne, Countess Luann de Lesseps, Melissa Gorga and Marysol Patton. SPOTTED: Sens. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and Reps. Adelita Grijalva (D-Ariz.), Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) (who, in true Real Housewives fashion, was holding a very small dog). The housewives were in Washington to advocate for increased access to the HIV prevention medication PrEP. “While we might fuss and fight on television, outside of the cameras, we're moms, some of us wives, some of us crazy — but at the end of the day, when we are passionate about anything, we go full force,” Parks told Playbook’s Irie Sentner. “The seven ladies that are here with me today, they are definitely very passionate about HIV prevention, management and education.” De Lesseps said lawmakers on the Hill might even learn something from the housewives. “It's about conflict and resolution,” the countess told Irie. “People want to see people come together and work together in the end.” Leakes, meanwhile, was worried about D.C.’s dating scene. “I didn’t get any digits,” she said. “Everybody around here looks to be a bit married … I don’t think I’d want to go out with a guy that’s in politics. I don’t have time for you to come home being that serious … stuffed in their suits every day.” FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Joining the book club: Utah GOP Gov. Spencer Cox is the latest politician to ink a pre-2028 book deal, with his debut — titled “Off Ramp: How to Be a Peacemaker in an Age of Contempt” — set to be released on Sept. 8. Cox, known for his “Disagree Better” initiative and calls for unity in the wake of Charlie Kirk’s killing, will deliver “a practical guide to depolarization that teaches us how to disagree better at the dinner table, on social media, and in American politics,” according to a news release shared exclusively with Playbook. GAME NIGHT — The Congressional Football Game was held Tuesday night for the first time at Nationals Park, where the band White Ford Bronco performed. The Guards (Capitol Police) soundly defeated the Mean Machine (Members of Congress) 32-12. Former NFL Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick served as the honorary QB for the Mean Machine, which was captained by Reps. Tracey Mann (R-Kan.) and Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.). House Majority Leader Steve Scalise was also in attendance and reunited with Capitol Police Officer David Bailey, who helped save his life in 2017. SPOTTED: Reps. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.), Dave Min (D-Calif.) and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), Larry Bell, Jim Davis, Chad Nieto, Ron Potter, William McFarland, Randy Ross, Andy Lewin, Keaghan Ames, Emma Vaughn, John Booty and Ken Harvey. OUT AND ABOUT — Widehall’s Steve Clemons convened a national security conversation last night at Cafe Milano focusing on the U.S. industrial base, anchored by Sens. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) and Tim Sheehy (R-Mont.) and Rep. Pat Harrigan (R-N.C.). SPOTTED: Otter Bew, Tom Opalak, Christian Brose, Dan Holler, Justin Fanelli, Michael Cadenazzi, Patrick George, Joe Whited, James Mismash, Robb Gordon, Alex Ward, Nancy Youssef, Charles Moran, Courtney McBride, Archie Hall, Paul Saunders, Bonnie Evangelista, Eric Fanning, Jeb Nadaner, Cortney Weinbaum, Steff Chavez, Alex Horton and Rebecca Lissner. — Lobbyists from Kountoupes Denham Carr & Reid hosted a dinner for the DCCC last night that raised $200,000. SPOTTED: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Reps. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.), Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.), Rob Menendez (D-N.J.), Grace Meng (D-N.Y.), Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Mich), Kathy Castor (D-Fla.), Sharice Davids (D-Kan.) and Marilyn Strickland (D-Wash.), Austin Burnes, Janelle McClure, Darrell Rogers, Virginia Zigras, Rael Candelaria, Leigh Parker Pross, Corey Miller, Diana Felner, Elizabeth Sharp and Erin Piper. POLITICO MOVES — Riley Rogerson is joining POLITICO’s Congress team as a House leadership reporter focused on Democrats. She most recently worked at NOTUS. … Benjamin Freed is joining POLITICO as tax editor. He comes to us from Bloomberg Tax, where he was the editor for state tax news and financial accounting. … Michaela Ross is joining POLITICO as Congress editor focused on the Inside Congress newsletter. She comes to us from Bloomberg Industry Group. TRANSITIONS — Beatriz Gómez López is now executive director of Voto Latino. She previously worked for the Immigration Hub. … Stephanie Miley is joining the German Marshall Fund as a non-resident senior fellow. She previously spent more than 35 years as a foreign service officer. … Onotse Omoyeni is joining North Carolina Gov. Josh Stein’s office as senior press secretary. Omoyeni most recently worked at the AFL-CIO. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Adam Carbullido, director of policy and advocacy at the Association of Asian Pacific Community Health Organizations and a Madeleine Bordallo alum, and Bobby Mushroe, a partner at Sage Media Planning and Placement, recently welcomed Lucas Philip Mushroe Carbullido. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Ed Rollins … Axios’ Kayla Cook … Anatole Jenkins … Carla Frank … Tara Dawson McGuinness … ABC’s Pierre Thomas, Katie Bosland Kastens and Van Scott … Mary Streett … KPMG’s Ian Hainline … John Gossel … UPS’ Annie Policastro … Bristol Myers Squibbs’ Ali Chartan … NBC’s Emma Gottlieb … Sarah Pulliam Bailey … Yujin Lee … T. Christian Miller … Julien Rashid … Drew Marrs of Norfolk Southern … Jake Westlin … Jose Borjon of Akin Gump … Leah Schaefer … Jill Abramson … Lynda Bird Johnson Robb … former Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Colo.) … Trey Hardin … Liz Plank … Zach Parkinson … Betsy Barrows … Leah Daniels … Tselmuun Zagdragchaa Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.
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