| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Megan Messerly discuss divisions in MAGA world over immigration — and if it really will be “mission accomplished" in Iran.
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| Good Thursday morning. This is Jack Blanchard. If you’re sick of everyone in D.C. banging on about the weather, I have bad news. The heatwave is over, and temperatures are about to drop 50 degrees in the course of a single day. Good luck dressing for work, folks. 2028 WATCH: Even by President Donald Trump’s high standards, last night’s speech in Kentucky was a rambler — comfortably breaking the hour mark and including digressions on Jake Paul’s broken jaw, an imaginary wind-powered TV set, and a riff on how hard it can be for presidents to walk down aircraft steps (Barack Obama was the champ, apparently). But Playbook couldn't help noticing that once again it was Secretary of State Marco Rubio — not VP JD Vance — who got the warmest shout-out from the president, just as it was in last month’s State of the Union address. Also worrying JD this week: Trump’s willingness to call out Vance’s war skepticism in public … and that buzzy WSJ report that in private “increasingly Trump has shown fondness for Rubio.” White House Kremlinologists are having a field day. Of course: Vance is still miles ahead in Republican polling — but nobody knows what might happen if and when Trump puts his thumb on the scale. Let’s just hope the president doesn’t look too closely at Rubio’s now-infamous shoe gap. In today’s Playbook … — Inside Tom Homan’s plan for a post-Kristi Noem world. — Trump says the Strait of Hormuz is in “great shape.” Evidence suggests otherwise. — And we’ve got head-to-head polling in California for Gavin vs. Kamala.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | HO, MAN: Fresh from his dispatching to Minnesota to wrest control of an immigration crackdown that spiraled out of control under Kirsti Noem’s leadership, Trump border czar Tom Homan has a new challenge — making nice with her replacement. We all know Noem and Homan hated each other. Their approaches to immigration enforcement could hardly have been more different — try picturing Homan donning a cowboy hat and blowing $220 million on a publicity drive — and as a result, the veteran border czar was frozen out of key decisions. But Noem will soon be gone — and “Homan is determined to avoid a repeat,” POLITICO’s Myah Ward writes in a buzzy new piece from inside DHS. “Homan is making a concerted effort to quickly build a relationship with Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullin, President Trump’s pick to replace Noem at the Department of Homeland Security, according to three people close to the administration who are familiar with the efforts,” Myah reports. “The border czar has already introduced Mullin to key Trump allies, as well as players in the immigration policy space.” Mullin’ it over: “I definitely get the sense that Homan is trying to be more involved with Mullin from the get-go,” said one of the people granted anonymity to discuss private conversations. “I think he just wants to make sure that he plays a larger role in how interior enforcement is done going forward.” And allies predict that’s exactly how this will play out. “Tom’s just going to be able to actually carry out the role of the border czar that it was originally intended to do, that Kristi … literally cut him off from doing,” says Trump’s former ICE boss Mark Morgan. A confirmation hearing for Mullin’s nomination has been scheduled for next Wednesday with a committee vote to follow on Thursday, and the expectation is that he’ll be in the job before the end of this month. (Trump will hold talks today about Mullin’s successor as Oklahoma senator with Gov. Kevin Stitt, West Wing Playbook reported. The shortlist has been narrowed to two: oil magnate Harold Hamm or Stitt senior adviser Dustin Hilliary.) But be careful what you wish for: Mullin is walking into a firestorm. The shutdown at DHS is now on its 27th day, and there’s still zero sign of either side cutting a deal to fund the department — even as pressure on TSA piles up. Yesterday, Denver International, one of America’s busiest airports, began pleading with passengers to donate grocery and gas gift cards to TSA employees, who’ve now been working without pay for almost a month. Just as dangerous for Mullin, immigration enforcement is becoming a fracturing issue across the MAGA right, POLITICO’s Sam Benson reports this morning. He reveals a new pressure group formed last month by a collection of Trump allies and immigration hawks is furious at the White House’s decision to refocus its deportation drive on violent criminals — something Homan himself has long espoused.
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Learn more. | | | | The Blair pitch project: The strategy has been embraced following the public backlash to Noem’s bungled operation in Minnesota in which street-level immigration sweeps led by border officials triggered violent clashes and saw two Americans shot dead by federal agents. At a House GOP retreat this week, White House deputy chief of staff James Blair instructed Republicans to abandon the “mass deportation” rhetoric and focus messaging instead on the removal of violent criminals. But groups like the ultra-hawkish “Mass Deportation Coalition” want a massive effort to deport every undocumented person in the country. The coalition shared new polling — carried out by one of Trump’s top pollsters — that found 66 percent of likely 2026 voters say they support deporting any migrants who enter the country illegally. And it’s even bigger in MAGA world: The same poll found 87 percent of Trump 2024 voters want the president to exceed the previous largest deportation effort in history, led in the 1950s by President Dwight Eisenhower. “This is a good way to re-energize the base as we move into the midterms,” said Chris Chmielenski, president of the conservative Immigration Accountability Project. Just one problem: A host of other polls show Trump is well underwater on immigration with the general public, and that most voters were deeply unhappy with how the hard-line Minnesota operation played out. Expect every side of Trump’s coalition to be watching Mullin’s confirmation proceedings like a hawk.
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| | | | WAR REPORT IT’S HAPPENING AGAIN: The ongoing chaos in the gulf sent oil prices soaring above $100-a-barrel again overnight, despite the planned release of hundreds of millions of barrels from global reserves. And it’s not hard to see why: Following the White House panic about wildly fluctuating gas prices these past few days, Iran appears to have cranked up its efforts to target ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Persian Gulf. Six more ships were hit overnight, Reuters reports, including two off the coast of Iraq and a container ship in the Gulf near the UAE. “The Straits are in great shape!” Trump told reporters last night. The somewhat chaotic response to the oil crisis is being pinned by some voices in and around the White House on two Cabinet members — Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Energy Secretary Chris Wright, POLITICO’s Ben Lefebvre and James Bikales report. “Doug Burgum is becoming the ‘Where’s Waldo’ of the administration,” one industry official said of Burgum’s public appearances. “Where is he on these important energy issues?” For the record: White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt pushed back hard, saying Trump “couldn’t be happier with both Doug and Chris.” Costs are ticking up: The Pentagon told Congress yesterday that the first week of the war alone cost American taxpayers at least $11.2 billion, per NYT. And the number of U.S. service personnel severely injured in an attack at the outset of the war — which left six dead — is far higher than thought, per CBS.
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| | | | And the war’s not over yet. “We don't want to leave early, do we, huh?” Trump asked supporters at his Kentucky rally yesterday. “We got to finish the job, right?” So … what happened to the war being “very complete?” Well, that too. “We’ve won,” Trump said earlier during the same rally. “Let me tell you, we’ve won … In the first hour it was over.” Then again — Trump was still talking optimistically about picking Iran’s future leadership when he spoke to reporters last night. Mullah corner: But any hope of toppling the regime through air and missile strikes looks increasingly distant. “U.S. intelligence indicates that Iran's leadership is still largely intact and is not at risk of collapse any time soon after nearly two weeks of relentless U.S. and Israeli bombardment,” Reuters’ Erin Banco and Jonathan Landay scooped. “A ‘multitude’ of intelligence reports provide ‘consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger’ of collapse and ‘retains control of the Iranian public,’” one of Reuters’ three anonymous sources reveals. AND DON'T FORGET THE OTHER WAR: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he wants Trump to turn up the heat on Russian President Vladimir Putin — and stop piling pressure on Zelenskyy to agree to a truce after more than four years of war. Zelenskyy was speaking in an exclusive interview with POLITICO and Welt, which is owned by POLITICO’s parent company Axel Springer.
| | | | POLITICO's Economy Summit Washington power players are transforming the economy with consequences that reach well beyond Wall Street and Silicon Valley as upcoming midterms add to mounting political pressures. Join POLITICO’s Economy Summit on Wednesday, March 25 for urgent conversations with government and industry leaders about the policy decisions that will determine tomorrow’s market risks and opportunities. RSVP to attend in person or virtually. | | | | | TRAIL MIX HOT IN CALIFORNIA: California Gov. Gavin Newsom leads former VP Kamala Harris 28 percent to 14 percent among voters leaning toward voting in California’s 2028 Democratic presidential primary, according to the latest results from the UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research-POLITICO poll, POLITICO’s Blake Jones writes. Newsom has also opened a commanding lead over other potential candidates, including New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (12 percent) and Pete Buttigieg (11 percent). See the full poll FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Big spenders: The DNC is kicking off its biannual National Finance Committee retreat this weekend, treating their biggest donors to conversations with some of the party’s rising stars — and some notable potential 2028ers, Playbook’s Ali Bianco scoops. Sens. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) are slated to speak, as are Georgia state Rep. Eric Gisler and Miami Mayor Eileen Higgins, who both flipped their seats with Democratic overperformances in their December elections. RACE OF THE DAY: Working Families Party is dropping a six-figure digital and mobile billboard ad buy in Illinois’ 2nd District Democratic primary to boost state Sen. Robert Peters, a progressive, and to attack Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller and Jesse Jackson Jr., who are receiving support from AIPAC and AI-aligned super PACs respectively, POLITICO's Elena Schneider reports. A crypto-backed super PAC has also dropped $1 million to attack Peters. “AI and crypto billionaires are betting that they can buy an election,” WFP Deputy National Director Joe Dinkin said. The WFP buy is the latest indication of progressives looking to turn the groups’ cash toxic in Democratic primaries. Watch the ad FOR YOUR RADAR: “A Police Report About a House Candidate Surprised the White House,” by The Atlantic’s Michael Scherer: “Trump [in February] announced his ‘Complete and Total Endorsement’ of the Louisiana congressional candidate Blake Miguez … Months earlier, when Miguez was running for the U.S. Senate, a 2007 police report had surfaced that showed that Miguez’s former girlfriend had accused him of rape and other abusive behavior, including locking her in bedrooms, taking away her keys, and holding her down. The Miguez campaign denies the claims. … The White House press office declined to comment.”
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Learn more. | | | | BEST OF THE REST ENDURANCE EXERCISE: Senate Republican leaders are preparing for a marathon debate over the SAVE America Act as they prepare to bring the elections bill to the floor next week, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney reports. And they’re putting Democrats on the defensive, mulling tactics that could include long overnight sessions and forcing Democrats to stay on the floor to prevent any Republican from calling a final vote. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Republicans are also talking through their internal opposition to Trump’s call for a near-total ban on mail-in voting. Bringing down the housing: Meanwhile, the Senate is on pace to pass a housing affordability package today that appears to already be anathema in the House — which could muddy Republicans’ affordability messaging. The House Freedom Caucus came out against the package and Speaker Mike Johnson told House Republicans the chambers may have to go into conference negotiations to iron out wide policy chasms, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill and Katherine Hapgood report. A formal conference meeting could mean weeks — or more — of delay. More in POLITICO’s Inside Congress COLD SHOULDER FOR A NORTHERN NEIGHBOR: Pierre Poilievre, the leader of Canada’s Conservative Party, is scrambling to make inroads in Trump’s Washington, but finding few allies as he prepares for another election, POLITICO’s Mickey Djuric reports from Ottawa. Many Republicans seem to already have written Poilievre off. “In addition to all the ill will Poilievre is facing, he’s also up against the diplomatic reality of a White House that assumes it will be dealing with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government for the foreseeable future. … Poilievre has not forged the relationships required to become a ‘serious’ partner for any Republican administration, [one] GOP operative said, whether under Trump or someone else.” THE CASE COMEDOWN: “Immigration detention cases decline amid Trump admin pullback from hardline tactics,” by POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney: “A POLITICO analysis found that immigration habeas petitions peaked at about 300 to 400 per day from Jan. 16 to Feb. 17, at the height of Operation Metro Surge. It was in this timeframe — which includes the Jan. 24 shooting death of demonstrator Alex Pretti — when public opinion began to sour on the Trump administration’s mass deportation tactics. Habeas petitions peaked at more than 400 on Feb. 6 but have since steadily declined, dipping below 300 per day late last month and approaching 200 per day by early March.”
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➡️ Learn More about POLITICO Pro | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | PLAYBOOK REAL ESTATE CORNER — Who fancies life with the Vances next door? One of the most exclusive pieces of real estate available in D.C. is up for sale: The property at 3400 Massachusetts Avenue NW, which is right next door to VP JD Vance’s residence, is on the market for a cool $10.75 million, per Axios. The house was originally built in 1925, but it received a renovation nine years ago. “The Spanish-style residence spans 13,900 square feet — 7 bedrooms, 9 full baths and two half baths. Plus ... an indoor swimming pool, sauna, exercise room, two-car garage and circular driveway out front.” PLAQUE BUILDUP — “Police say Jan. 6 plaque is unlawfully hidden from public at U.S. Capitol,” by WaPo’s Olivia George: “Police officers who defended the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, have asked a federal judge to allow their lawsuit over the long-delayed installation of a plaque honoring their service to continue, days after The Washington Post revealed it was quietly hung at the end of a hallway in the middle of the night. … The location is not on the public tour route offered through the U.S. Capitol Visitor Center, a spokesperson for the center confirmed.” THE COVETED PRE-ENDORSEMENT — Trump last night gave Jake Paul his “complete and total endorsement” if he ever runs for office. The manosphere influencer-turned-boxer is not currently running for anything — but the president, during his rally in Kentucky, predicted that he will “in the not too distant future, be running for political office.” GUEST OF HONOR — Bobby Pulido, a Latin Grammy-winning singer running as a Democrat for Congress in Texas’ 15th district, has received around 900 requests to attend quinceañeras in the district, per CBS’ Nidia Cavazos. The invitations flooded in after incumbent Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas) released a video saying the “election isn’t about who you want performing at your niece’s quinceañera.” Pulido responded in an X post: “Celebrating family and tradition with District 15 is exactly where I belong” and linking a request form. OUT AND ABOUT — Semafor co-founder and CEO Justin Smith hosted a party last night at his Kalorama home celebrating Hank Paulson's work fostering relations between the U.S. and China. Dim sum, bao buns and Peking duck were served alongside a playlist curated by DJ BAK. SPOTTED: Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and Dave McCormick (R-Pa.), Finnish Ambassador Leena-Kaisa Mikkola, Monaco Ambassador Maguy Maccario Doyle, Ben Smith, John Harris, Bob Woodward, Armita Pedramrazi, Liz Hoffman, Kara Swisher, Gianluca Battaglia, Elise Doucerain Buresi, Nicholas Wu, Phelim Kine, Amanda Katz, Margaret Carlson, Eleanor Mueller, Andy Browne, Greg Ip, Evan Osnos, Matt Murray, Neil Irwin, Steve Inskeep, Tyler Pager, Josh Dawsey, John Hudson, Eric Motley, David Lynch, David Smith, Daniel Lippman, Catherine Merrill and Alan Rappeport. — Mega Events Global celebrated its launch on Tuesday at 1310 Kitchen and Bar, and we hear the champagne was popping. SPOTTED: Giuseppe Lanzone, Frances Lanzone, Phil Reeker, Kathryn Rose, Peter Stemmeler, Mike Wagner, Travis Murphy, David Francis, Diane Williams, Tommy Goodman, Andy Rabens, Gregg Brunson-Pitts, Lauren Bernstein, Moira Whelan, Anne Eisenhower Turnbull, David Solomon, Maya Fall, Tara Juliard, Alex-Anne Holland, Lauren Katz, Cindy Steele and Kimberlie Bolinger. MEDIA MOVE — Peter Finn has joined ProPublica as assistant managing editor. He was most recently international editor at WaPo, where he spent 21 years before the paper’s leadership gutted the newsroom. TRANSITIONS — Focal Point Strategy Group has added Derek Martin as VP and Elijah Schulman as research associate, working on a newly launched research and intelligence practice. Martin previously led Pathfinder Research and is an Accountable.US alum; Schulman also worked at both. … Carl Mica is joining Catalyst. He recently served as deputy chief of staff and state director to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). … Timothy Foster has joined Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services as senior comms adviser to Administrator Mehmet Oz. He most recently worked on the House Ways and Means Committee. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) … Reps. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) and Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio) … Jake Tapper … Andrew Young … Emily Stephenson … Kedenard Raymond … Jalen Drummond … former Sens. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) and Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) … Remi Yamamoto … former Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.) … Jordan Evich of Monument Advocacy … Alex Vargo … Riley Barnes … Scott Comer … Fox News’ Eric Shawn … Andres Penfold … Brian Weiss … Slate’s Jim Newell … WaPo’s Peter Spiegel … Colleen Carlos … S-3 Group’s Matt Bravo … Jeremy Pelzer … Aaron Magid … Rebekah Williams Lovorn … Neil Fried … Jeff Lande … James Ball … Steven Stenberg … Matt Glassman of Georgetown’s Government Affairs Institute … Alex Heathcock … Amplifire Strategies’ Preston Maddock … Rachel Levitan … Eric Burns of Bullfight Strategies … Marshall Kosloff … David Sheon of Whitecoat Strategies … Tara (Jeffries) Payne … Marcy Stech … Jacob Castermans Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.
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