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By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns |
Presented by |
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With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray Good Wednesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard. Get in touch. In today’s Playbook … — James Blair gives Playbook his strategy for the midterms. — A stunning exposé of Trump’s use of mass detention — and how judges are fighting back. — The Boldfaces: Marco Rubio, Elon Musk, Tim Cook, Jensen Huang, Andrew Ferguson, Mehmet Oz, Kevin Warsh, Pete Buttigieg, Mahmoud Khalil, Nancy Pelosi and more.
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DRIVING THE DAY |
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THE BLAIR PITCH PROJECT: Few people will matter more in Washington this year than James Blair. The 36-year-old Republican strategist departs the White House at the end of the month to run Donald Trump’s midterm political operation, a feat aimed at bucking historical trends to keep control of Congress. Blair spoke with Dasha yesterday to discuss his approach — and the overwhelming sense of confidence is striking. The mood within the camp has been transformed by an extraordinary two weeks in which high-stakes showdowns over redistricting landed decisively in Republicans’ favor — potentially handing them up to 12 Democratic House districts this fall. Blair, the architect of a strategy that just a few weeks ago seemed to be teetering on the brink of failure, is lapping it all up. (X Posts like this give you a sense of where his head is at.) Blair hints that Republican donor concerns about Trump’s unspent millions are groundless, vowing GOP candidates won’t be outspent. And he spies opportunity in his opponents’ tribulations, enjoying the fratricidal warfare consuming Dems in several hard-fought primaries, including last night in Nebraska. He believes Democrats will repeat the “woke, weak and way too liberal,” mistakes of 2024, and that his strategy will be “attack, attack, attack.” But Democrats will see openings. There’s no acknowledgement of the infighting that’s beset Republicans in Texas, and may yet open the door for rising Democratic star James Talarico. There’s no acknowledgement of Trump’s abysmal polling. And there’s no attempt to confront the political catastrophe that is Trump’s war in Iran — a conflict that’s sent prices soaring with no end in sight. Blair is enjoying his moment, and his redistricting gambit is causing angst for Democrats. But Dem strategists believe the fundamentals still point in their favor this November — and that over-confidence in their opponents may yet play into their hands. Post-Indiana, what’s the game plan? That obviously sent a message. How do you leverage that? “I think it speaks for itself. We're working through everywhere that has opportunity, right? You see Louisiana taking action. You see Tennessee taking action. You see Alabama taking action … Everywhere is a little bit different, but there’s a robust appetite to level the playing field against the Democrats’ overreach. … The president's been pretty public and pretty clear about this. People should take him seriously. That was perhaps the mistake that Indiana senators made.” What is the dream world in terms of gains before the midterms? “Here's what I know: the overall efforts of our strategy will net a substantial swing of seats to Republicans, which they are rightly due based on legal application of the Constitution, census, and law.” What can you share about spending and MAGA Inc? “What we can control is money, message and coordinating with our allies. We’re doing all of those things. I’ve said on the record, we’re not going to get outspent … I’ll reserve the president’s announcements for him, but we’re going to be sufficiently armed.” What should we expect in the coming weeks and months? “We've cleared most primaries. Our guys aren't beating each other up for the most part. They're raising a bunch of money and building war chests, whereas their guys are not doing that, right? … They have incumbents getting attacked from the left, while we have a candidate who’s just sitting there building a war chest, endorsed with a clear field. We’ve also got incumbents like Mike Lawler, who’s facing a handful of people who are all killing each other while he builds his war chest. … “The Democrats are tied up in a complete ideological party split, tearing themselves apart. … They just blew $80 million on their illegal Virginia fiasco. Hakeem Jeffries humiliated himself with his big press conference two weeks ago just to be crushed in the couple weeks since. Their party is divided, they don’t have confidence in their leadership, their candidates are fighting themselves, they are wasting their money. These are all good situations for us that help us get a little closer to the prize.” Let’s talk about the war. People are not happy with the policy of this administration. And yes, things could change by November, but they might not. How do you contend with that? “Well, the Democrats will have to convince the electorate how they’re going to make their lives more affordable when they tried to raise taxes on 90 percent of Americans by $4 trillion last summer. They are all on the record for tax hikes. They’ve opposed every single tax cut. That’s going to be a tough message to stick in the center of the electorate who already don’t like Democrats. And that’s just the beginning of the contrasts we will make with them. Swing voters already think the Democratic Party's too far left, and we’re going to make sure voters know just how far left they are. They are woke, weak and way too liberal. And the whole country will be reminded of that.” So going on the attack is a big part of the strategy? “It’s always the strategy. Attack, attack, attack. And when in doubt, attack some more. The best defense is a great offense.” More on Dasha's interview with Blair in today's Playbook Podcast:
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THE DOWNLOAD |
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POTUS ABROAD: Trump is due to arrive in China around 8 a.m. Eastern ahead of his long-awaited meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, with stakes high and expectations low. “The pomp and circumstance will start at the airport,” POLITICO’s Alex Gangitano — who’s traveling with Trump — writes in to Playbook. But the real work starts tonight with the summit kick-off.
- 5 things to watch: 1) Trump’s general posture with Xi and their relationship status — there’s a new war in the mix since they met last. 2) Any deliverables Trump can take home on issues like trade, agriculture and fentanyl. 3) If Trump caves to Xi in any way on issues like Taiwan. 4) How Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s presence sways decisions — not to mention the high-profile entourage including Elon Musk, Tim Cook and Jensen Huang. 5) Will Trump hold a solo press conference Friday before he leaves?
BACK IN D.C.: VP JD Vance hosts a press conference at 2 p.m. on his anti-fraud initiative. The assignment offers Vance a spotlight while dodging the topic of Iran — and tomorrow, he’ll travel to Bangor, Maine, to discuss the same gig. Today’s event is expected to focus on Medicaid and will also feature FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson and CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz. FED UP: The Senate votes today at 2:30 p.m. to confirm Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. But there’s some warning signs for him in Congress: Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee say Warsh doesn’t have a bevy of bipartisan allies on the Hill, which could mean headaches down the road if Democrats take control of either chamber in the midterms, POLITICO’s Jasper Goodman and Sam Sutton write.
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THE FRONT PAGE |
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TODAY’S ESSENTIAL READ: Federal judges have ruled against the Trump administration’s immigration detentions over 10,000 times, POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney reports today. In 90 percent of cases, those immigrants had no opportunity to plead their case and judges ruled them illegal — including a majority of Trump appointed judges. Many had no criminal record. POLITICO compiled a full, viewable database of the lawsuits. Explore the data In Kyle’s words: “I’ve spent the last eight months tracking what was at first a trickle, and then a flood, of emergency lawsuits brought by ICE detainees who have been locked up without bond under an unprecedented expansion of detention power by the Trump administration. As remarkable as the deluge has been the equally forceful response from every corner of the judiciary, an overwhelming rejection by judges of every ideological stripe.” Why it matters: “The fight over this policy of mass, mandatory detention by the Trump administration has fractured the relationship between the DOJ and the judges across the country, overwhelmed the justice system and disrupted countless lives. Nearly everyone paying attention thinks it’s on a path to the Supreme Court by the fall.” ENDORSEMENT WATCH: Pete Buttigieg is picking sides in Iowa, wading into one of the most closely watched Democratic Senate primaries to back state Rep. Josh Turek, Playbook’s Adam Wren scoops. Despite telling POLITICO in March he didn’t plan to get involved in the race, Buttigieg’s endorsement puts the one-time Iowa caucus winner in direct competition with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who’s backing Turek’s opponent, state Sen. Zach Wahls. IT’S THE AFFORDABILITY, STUPID: House and Senate Republicans are still working out an agenda to adequately address voters’ affordability concerns. They’re divided over whether to move ahead with a gas tax holiday endorsed by Trump, not to mention the housing and energy permitting bills that remain stalled, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney and Meredith Lee Hill write. And the GOP still isn’t on board with the White House’s request for $1 billion in funding for the Secret Service. One member warns that fight could get “ugly.”
- Happening today: The House is expected to vote on a bill authorizing year-round sales of 15% ethanol fuel nationwide — which Republicans expect will fail.
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5 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW |
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1. ABOUT LAST NIGHT: Nebraska Democrat Cindy Burbank won out in the Democratic primary race for Senate, which now clears the way for independent Dan Osborn to take on incumbent Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts in November after Burbank promised to drop out, POLITICO’s Andrew Howard writes. The Democratic primary for retiring Rep. Don Bacon’s so-called blue dot is too close to call, as Denise Powell holds a very slim lead over state Sen. John Cavanaugh, per AP. 2. REDISTRICTING RODEO: South Carolina’s Senate tanked a measure that would’ve paved the way for a vote on redistricting, with five Republicans voting with all Democrats against it, POLITICO’s Alec Hernandez and Andrew Howard report. Expect Republicans to lean heavily on GOP Gov. Henry McMaster to call a special session to push forward — an idea he’s panned so far. Over in Missouri, the state Supreme Court greenlit the GOP’s new map, which could net Republicans another seat, per POLITICO’s Aaron Pellish. 3. WAR REPORT: Trump’s public insistence that Iran is severely weakened doesn’t match the reality of classified assessments from the U.S. intelligence community, which show Iran “regained access to most of its missile sites, launchers and underground facilities,” NYT’s Adam Entous and colleagues report. 4. FOR YOUR RADAR: Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger received “a four-page ‘manifesto’ threatening the Republican’s life a day before authorities were alerted to a suspicious object that disrupted a Macon event for his bid for governor,” the Atlanta-Journal Constitution’s Greg Bluestein and colleagues report. 5. FOLLOW THE MONEY: A mysterious super PAC with ties to the GOP dropped more than $1 million across three competitive Democratic primaries to get their preferred opponent elected, including promoting a left-wing sex therapist in Texas, NYT’s Shane Goldmacher reports. It’s the latest evidence of a by-any-means-necessary approach that’s animating many races ahead of the midterms.
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TALK OF THE TOWN |
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FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Metropolitan Books is publishing Mahmoud Khalil’s memoir, titled “No Land to Stand On: Notes from Detention,” on Jan. 12. The book centers on Khalil’s detention by ICE after his central role in the protests at Columbia University over the war in Gaza. “I began this book while in detention and I finished it fighting a deportation order that may take me from my family. That is what it has cost me to tell this story,” Khalil said in a statement. See the cover FOR YOUR RADAR — “GOP Rep. Chuck Edwards, amid House Ethics inquiry, denies having inappropriate relationship with staff,” by CNN’s Lauren Fox and Ellis Kim: “‘No,’ Edwards told CNN when asked if he had any inappropriate relationship with staff. He later said, ‘I think you’re gonna find that when Ethics completes their investigation that the facts will have caught up with all the gossip and the rumor.’” IN MEMORIAM — “Michael Clemente, Former News Executive and Producer at ABC and Fox, Dies at 70,” by The Hollywood Reporter’s Mike Barnes: “At ABC’s World News Tonight, Clemente worked closely with Peter Jennings as chief writer and producer … [H]e rose to become executive producer of This Week and co-executive producer of 20/20 … In 2009, Clemente joined Fox as a senior vp and was promoted to executive vp in 2012. He oversaw daily news operations and major political programming.” OUT AND ABOUT — Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) gathered the tribe of “pact” members — 12 female members of the Democratic caucus who have banded together in recent months — for dinner last night at Al Tiramisu. Pic … AT THE TABLE: Reps. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-N.J.), Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), Emilia Sykes (D-Ohio), LaMonica McIver (D-N.J.), Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.), Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.), Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) and Yvette Clarke (D-N.Y.). — The National Democratic Training Committee, which has trained over 126,000 Democratic candidates and staff to run winning campaigns in the past decade, hosted its 10-year anniversary celebration at The Henri last night. SPOTTED: Kelly Dietrich, Cheri Bustos, Adrienne Elrod, Andrew Feldman, Tasha Cole, Courtney Corbisiero, Andrea Rodriguez, Londyn Marshall, Nancy Leeds, Michael Blake, Kevin Perez-Allen, Marcus Robinson, Jennifer Frost, Jessica Lovejoy, William Baskin-Gerwitz, Zoe Stein, Meredith Jachowicz, Darrin Owens, Jocelyn Hunt and Kelsi Browning. — Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Reps. Jason Crow (D-Colo.), Chrissy Houlahan (D-Pa.), Maggie Goodlander (D-N.H.) and Chris Deluzio (D-Pa.) were recognized last night with the Jewish Democratic Council of America’s Defenders of Democracy Award at a gala at the Watergate Hotel. The five Democratic veterans, along with Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), were involved in the November video telling servicemembers that they can refuse illegal orders. Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) received JDCA’s Lifetime of Leadership Award. — SPOTTED at a Mozilla Mixer at a rooftop on 750 17th St NW last night, convening leaders across the tech policy world: Linda Griffin, Jenn Taylor Hodges, Elise Philips, Joshua Landau, Chris Hilton, Alan Butler, Alissa Cooper, Billy Easley, Chris Lewis, Chris Wood, Christine Bannan, Daniel Castro, Dawit Kahsai, Eli Lehrer, President, Eric Null, George Slover, Jenna Leventoff, John Perrino, Kevin Bankston, Josh Ackil, Luke Hogg, Michael Petricone, Phillip Berenbroick, Slade Bond, Stan Adams, Andrea Jones, Halley Sevier and David Peluso. WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Cliff Sims, a longtime Trump ally, is joining VP JD Vance’s office as a national security adviser, POLITICO’s Sophia Cai scooped. Sims has worked closely in recent years with CIA Director John Ratcliffe and is a Trump 2024 transition alum. TRANSITIONS — Jabari Cooper is now director of government relations for the Northeast at Chamber of Progress. He previously worked for the Prince George’s County Council and is a Constellation Energy alum. … Michelle Dimarob is joining the Retail Industry Leaders Association as SVP for public affairs. She previously worked at Surround Sound Strategies and is a House Ways and Means alum. … Andrew Ansel is now VP of philanthropy at Issue One. He most recently was an independent consultant. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — John Hagner, managing partner at Workbench Strategy and a Clarity Campaign Labs alum, and Adam Koehler, a professional learning facilitator at World Savvy, welcomed Alma Grace Koehler Hagner on May 3 in Tampa. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) … Reps. Joe Neguse (D-Colo.) and Michael Cloud (R-Texas) … Del. Stacey Plaskett (D-U.S. Virgin Islands) … Stephen Colbert … MS NOW’s Ken Dilanian and Ana Cabrera … Amy Grappone of the McCain Institute … Amy Bos … Sarah Gunion … Dan Cox of AEI and the Survey Center on American Life … Shaila Manyam … Charlyn Stanberry … Phil Musser of NextEra Energy Resources … Mike Lux … NYT’s Mark Mazzetti … VoteVets’ Jon Soltz … former FDA Commissioner David Kessler ... National Journal’s Jeff DuFour ... Tara Bradshaw … Erica Farage … former Ohio Gov. John Kasich … Austin Gage … former Rep. Chris Gibson (R-N.Y.) … Matt Smith of Atlas Advocacy … Sydney Cox … Marcia Lee Kelly … Mark Titus Hoover … Brian Fung … Andrea Covington … T. R. Reid … HBS’ Anthony Inguaggiato Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross. Corrections: Yesterday’s Playbook misstated when South Carolina’s primary elections will be held. It also misstated the moniker that Nebraska Democratic state Sen. John Cavanaugh has given to his opponent Denise Powell. It is “Dark Money Denise.”
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