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By Adam Wren with Dasha Burns |
Presented by |
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With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray Happy Friday. It’s Adam Wren. We are really getting into the 2026 primary season, with Louisiana’s primary tomorrow and a mini Super Tuesday on tap for next week. It’s gonna be a sprint to the midterms. Hold onto your hats! Get in touch. In today’s Playbook … — Voters embrace winning at all costs in the latest POLITICO Poll. — Donald Trump claims his own victory in China. — The Boldfaces: Hakeem Jeffries, Henry McMaster, Richard Hudson, Xi Jinping, Dan Driscoll, JD Vance, Bill Huizenga, Scott Perry, Juan Ciscomani, Josh Turek and more.
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DRIVING THE DAY |
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MAP QUEST: The redistricting wars will continue until morale improves. And Republican and Democratic voters are all in on an ends-justify-means approach to map redraws, according to the latest POLITICO Poll conducted by Public First. With South Carolina GOP Gov. Henry McMaster expected to announce a special session today for legislators to push forward a 7-0 gerrymander to draw Democrats out, the fresh polling shows voters favor a maximalist approach. According to the poll, both parties say gerrymandering is influential or decisive — and back it to counter the other. For Democratic voters, 63 percent either support or strongly support an effort to neutralize Republican gains. Only 8 percent oppose or strongly oppose. For Republican voters, 54 percent either support or strongly support an effort to match or neutralize Democratic gains. Roughly 10 percent oppose or strongly oppose such a move. When the question changes to not just matching or neutralizing, but gaining an advantage in the midterms, 54 percent of Democratic voters back such a move, whereas only 47 percent of Republicans do. The aggression doesn’t end there. A 46 percent plurality of voters who identified with Trump’s MAGA base believe it’s more important for Republicans to claim as many seats as possible even if they’re held by candidates they disagree with. A 48 percent plurality said it was more important for Trump to focus on boosting candidates that can win rather than candidates who agree with the president. And it’s here where Democrats face a divide: 48 percent said they want Democrats to fight harder to oppose Trump and Republicans, while another 48 percent said they want Democrats to work pragmatically to get things done, including across party lines. See the poll results For House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and his party, this means balancing two things at once — fighting the redistricting wars while trying to foist cost-of-living concerns solely on Republicans’ shoulders. “We are in a blue wave environment that’s going to be a knife fight in a phone booth,” a person familiar with Jeffries’ thinking said. “We’re just going to keep finding new opportunities.” The Supreme Court’s VRA ruling — along with the recently scrapped new map favoring Democrats in Virginia — all but guarantee that Republicans will walk away from this round of redistricting with an edge in partisan-leaning seats going into November.
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As Democrats’ window to redraw boundaries in any more states before the midterms rapidly closes, leaders are spoiling for a fight with 2028 on the horizon. Just listen to Jeffries, who vowed a “maximum warfare” approach to Republicans’ efforts and said during a brief interview this week that Democrats must “respond aggressively as it relates to making sure that we crush the gerrymandering aspirations of Republicans in advance of the 2028 election.” But that Democratic divide over fighting or working across the aisle foreshadows midterms and 2028 battles ahead. Should Democrats focus on crushing Republican souls, as Jeffries puts it, or on affordability? Can they do both? “The president's approval rating is a disaster because he’s done nothing on affordability,” the person familiar with Jeffries’ thinking said. “We will continue to fight back against Trump's redistricting scheme and also relentlessly focus on the cost of living crisis that Republicans have caused. As Leader Jeffries has consistently said, this election is going to be fought on affordability — and Republicans lose that fight.” When asked about the value of the GOP drawing out South Carolina’s single Democratic seat, NRCC Chair Richard Hudson said Republicans in the state have to weigh that decision. “But you know, when you have a two seat majority, I guess every seat matters,” Hudson said. “How many incumbents are we gonna lose? I’ll tell you, I don't know,” Hudson admitted. But he still feels “confident we're gonna hold the majority.” All these data points underscore a few big truths about American politics at this sharp-edged moment. The first, as POLITICO’s Jessica Piper writes this morning: The redistricting arms race is accelerating the collapse of competitive House districts. Republicans are poised to net at least half a dozen seats this fall in Congress from mid-decade gerrymandering, even as their chances of retaining their majority narrow. Regardless of which party controls the House next year, there will very likely be fewer members elected in genuinely close races as the latest round of redistricting further erodes swing seats. But more broadly, these dynamics and the POLITICO Poll point to a more existential reality. They explain why Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) can get away with running such an anti-Trump campaign in a purple state, why the upstart Graham Platner bested the establishment-backed Janet Mills in Maine’s Senate Democratic primary and why GOP primaries are increasingly about vengeance and who’s the most capable MAGA warrior. The old rules of politics are all but gone. Voters seem largely done with the establishment and bipartisanship. People want fighters — and to fight. And Trump’s slash-and-burn politics may be here to stay. On today's Playbook Podcast: Adam and POLITICO's Myah Ward discuss the gerrymandering wars and the White House's beef problem.
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Susana works as an industrial quality chemist at L’Oréal — one of the 154,000 jobs supported by L’Oréal’s US operations. Learn more. |
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THE DOWNLOAD |
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HE SAID, XI SAID: Trump all but declared victory as he wrapped up his China visit, even if he was light on specifics, POLITICO’s Alex Gangitano reports from Beijing. “Trump said he had secured ‘fantastic’ trade deals for both countries and made progress in his effort to enlist Xi’s help in reopening the Strait of Hormuz – though he gave no details. Trump seemed eager to project optimism about relations in general ahead of talks scheduled to resume when Chinese President Xi Jinping visits the U.S. in September.”
- In a statement issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China called for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a diplomatic resolution of the war. Trump told Sean Hannity in an interview aired last night that Xi “strongly” committed to not sending military equipment to Iran. He also said China agreed to purchase 200 jets from Boeing — a lower number than expected, which sent shares downward, per Reuters.
CLIMATE FILES: A legal battle over the Energy Department’s efforts to keep old coal plants open heads to federal appellate court in D.C. at 9:30 a.m., NYT’s Claire Brown previews. The administration’s orders are part of a broader push to ramp up fossil fuels. So was the EPA’s move yesterday to deregulate toxic wastewater limits on coal-fired plants, per AP’s Marc Levy. WAR REPORT: Army Secretary Dan Driscoll testifies before House Armed Services at 9 a.m. about the Pentagon’s massive budget request. In the background: tensions with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and, of course, the Iran war — which is raising concerns about financial and weapons shortfalls. Meanwhile, the House again rejected a war powers resolution to rein Trump in, by the closest margin yet. JUST VANCE: VP JD Vance will address the 45th annual National Peace Officers’ Memorial Service with a keynote at the Capitol at roughly 12:30 p.m. TUNE IN NEXT WEEK: Los Angeles faces a pivotal moment of reinvestment and revitalization, from housing and economic development to the future of Hollywood. On Wednesday, POLITICO will convene influential decision-makers for incisive conversations on the city’s future, including Mayor Karen Bass, Supervisor Kathryn Barger, California Community Foundation CEO Miguel Santana, the Motion Picture Association’s Kathy Bañuelos and writer/comedian Adam Conover. Register for the livestream
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POLITICO Live Event Join the POLITICO California Agenda: Los Angeles event on May 20 for an exclusive gathering of policymakers, business leaders and key decision-makers shaping the city’s future. The program will feature timely on-stage conversations, followed by networking over drinks and bites. Request to attend here. |
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THE FRONT PAGE |
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IT’S THE AFFORDABILITY, STUPID: The League of Conservation Voters is launching a $1.2 million digital ad and field campaign, starting first with Rep. Bill Huizenga’s (R-Mich.) district slamming the GOP on “votes to raise energy costs for hardworking families and calling on them to lower costs,” Playbook’s Ali Bianco scoops. The Michigan ad is part of LCV’s $4 million accountability campaign against the GOP’s “Big Beautiful Bill” to highlight real voter concerns on rising costs. The campaign will cut across 11 battleground districts — with Reps. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) and Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) among their next major targets. Watch the ad FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Iowa Senate Democratic candidate Josh Turek is out with his latest ad, backed by a six-figure statewide buy, called “Seventy Three,” emphasizing that if elected, he wouldn’t be among the 73 millionaires in the Senate, Playbook’s Adam Wren scoops. “I was a kid wearing Goodwill hand-me-downs, with the wrong color lunch ticket,” Turek says. “A working-class kid in a blue-collar town.” Watch the spot NEW FROM POLITICO MAG: Anti-abortion advocates have had a hard time limiting abortion pills sent through the mail — even before yesterday’s Supreme Court order temporarily preserving mifepristone access. As Alice Miranda Ollstein reports in POLITICO Magazine today, abortion rights proponents and opponents keep escalating their efforts to outmatch each other. More from today’s zine:
LISTEN TO THIS: For this week’s episode of “The Conversation,” Dasha spoke with Reza Pahlavi, the exiled former crown prince of Iran, at POLITICO’s Global Security Summit, where Pahlavi emphasized the need for regime change in Iran. “In this town, regime change has gotten a bad name. Why? Because of course it was poorly implemented elsewhere,” Pahlavi said. Listen and subscribe on Apple or Spotify
- And we want to hear from you: “The Conversation” is almost one year old! To celebrate, Dasha wants to answer your questions: What do you want to know about the show, how it comes together or covering politics right now? Text or leave a voicemail at 202-643-1536 for a chance to be featured on the show.
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5 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW |
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1. BIG ONE: Trump plans to strike a settlement with the federal government to drop his $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS over the leak of his tax returns and his other legal actions, ABC’s Katherine Faulders and colleagues scooped. In exchange, he’ll get an apology from the tax agency — and a $1.7 billion fund to pay out settlements to people who claim to have been hurt by purported “weaponization” of law enforcement in the Biden administration. That means all the Jan. 6 defendants. 2. BOTTOMS UP: Democrats have the midterms edge, and Georgia’s been trending blue. So why are some Georgia Dems so nervous about Keisha Lance Bottoms as their leading gubernatorial contender? POLITICO’s Alec Hernandez reports that some worry she could fumble away a winnable general election, with her tenure as Atlanta mayor opening her up to Republican attack ads. 3. WHAT MIAMI IS WATCHING: The news in Cuba, still mired in a U.S. blockade and energy crisis, is moving fast. CIA Director John Ratcliffe was in Havana yesterday to meet with Cuban officials and push for major reforms — quite the scene, given the CIA’s history there. As Havana considers the U.S. offer of a $100 million aid package, officials in Washington are getting fed up with scant progress in negotiations, Bloomberg’s Eric Martin reports. 4. ELIZABETH MacDONOUGH STRIKES AGAIN: The Senate parliamentarian ruled Republicans need to alter significant portions of their immigration enforcement reconciliation bill if they want them to be subject to the 50-vote threshold, per POLITICO’s Jordain Carney and Jennifer Scholtes. Democrats exulted; Republicans said they’ll tweak.
5. THE CHATTER IN SACRAMENTO: A series of recent stumbles leaves California Democrats wondering if new gubernatorial frontrunner Xavier Becerra is really ready for primetime, POLITICO’s Melanie Mason and Blake Jones report. THE WEEKEND AHEAD FRIDAY PROGRAMS … POLITICO “The Conversation”: Reza Pahlavi. C-SPAN “Ceasefire”: Reps. Ami Bera (D-Calif.), Marlin Stutzman (R-Ind.), Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.) and Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas). PBS “Washington Week”: Peter Baker, Susan Glasser, Mark Mazzetti and Nancy Youssef. SUNDAY SO FAR … FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Speaker Mike Johnson … Amy Grant. Panel: Rachel Campos-Duffy, Mark Walker and Roger Zakheim. NBC “Meet the Press”: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) … Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) … James Comey. Panel: Lanhee Chen, Adrienne Elrod and Ryan Nobles. MS NOW “The Weekend”: John Brennan. CBS “Face the Nation”: Taiwanese Representative Alexander Yui … Robert Gates … Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) … Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.). CNN “State of the Union”: Pete Buttigieg … Neil Degrasse Tyson. Panel: Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.), Sean Spicer, Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.) and Xochitl Hinojosa. NewsNation “The Hill Sunday”: Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.). Panel: Molly Ball, Paul Kane and Megan McArdle. PBS “Compass Points”: Simon Morrison.
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POLITICO Pro Policy challenges are evolving — and the stakes keep rising. POLITICO Pro delivers authoritative reporting, expert analysis, and powerful tools to help professionals understand and anticipate the business of government, in Washington and beyond. Learn More about POLITICO Pro. |
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TALK OF THE TOWN |
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BALLROOM BLITZ — Are Republicans willing to swallow $1 billion in security funding that includes money for Trump’s ballroom? Some on the Hill are considering a reduction, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney and Meredith Lee Hill report. Senators meet with the parliamentarian today to determine if this portion of their reconciliation bill passes muster. Despite the ongoing ballroom court battle, construction workers crossed the threshold of building the visible, above-ground portion, WaPo’s Jonathan Edwards and Dan Diamond report. PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — U.S. Attorney for D.C. Jeanine Pirro is due to hold a presser today on public safety in the city. THE SEMIQUINCENTENNIAL — The Freedom 250 initiative planning the country’s birthday celebrations wants to set a Guinness World Record with its July Fourth fireworks display, Axios’ Cuneyt Dil scooped. The mark to beat: 810,904 fireworks (Philippines, 2016). PLAYBOOK ARTS SECTION — “How an Image of Washington at Prayer Became a Touchstone for the Right,” by NYT’s Jennifer Schuessler: “A scene inspired by the winter at Valley Forge has become more prominent in the Trump era, along with claims that the United States was founded as a Christian nation.” OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at an AAPI Victory Fund gala last night, celebrating the growth of Asian American and Pacific Islanders’ political power: Sens. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), Andy Kim (D-N.J.) and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), Reps. Judy Chu (D-Calif.), Mark Takano (D-Calif.), Ted Lieu (D-Calif.), Dave Min (D-Calif.), Shri Thanedar (D-Mich.), Derek Tran (D-Calif.), Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), Jimmy Gomez (D-Calif.), Marilyn Strickland (D-Wash.), Ami Bera (D-Calif.) and Suhas Subramanyam (D-Va.), and Saint Paul, Minnesota, Mayor Kaohly Her. — SPOTTED at a NewDEAL Leaders congressional reception last night: Reps. Marilyn Strickland (D-Wash.), Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.), Val Hoyle (D-Ore.), Brittany Pettersen (D-Colo.), Sarah McBride (D-Del.), Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.), Ami Bera (D-Calif.), Gabe Amo (D-R.I.), Sam Liccardo (D-Calif.) and James Walkinshaw (D-Va.), Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. Austin Davis, Redmond, Washington, Mayor Angela Birney, Massachusetts state Rep. Tram Nguyen, Maryland state Del. Adrian Boafo, Anne Sokolov, Arshi Siddiqui, Michael Block, John McCarthy, Helen Milby, Anne Andrew, Debbie Cox Bultan, Kathleen Mellody, Roddy Flynn, Brad Howard and Andrew Wright. TRANSITIONS — Whit Fosburgh is now executive director of the Forage Fish Campaign, a new effort launching this week to advocate for ending industrial-scale forage fishing in U.S. waters, with an America First and conservation lens. He is the longtime former head of the Theodore Roosevelt Conservation Partnership. … Sam Silverman has launched Silverman Strategy Group, a policy and comms strategy firm working with AI/deep tech companies, foundations and advocacy groups. He previously worked for Rep. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.). … … Stefani Jones is now senior director for policy focused on technology and innovation at the Business Roundtable. She most recently worked at the Aspen Institute and is a CISA alum. … Linda Seabrook is now general counsel at Color of Change. She previously worked at the Justice Department in the Biden administration. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Abe Hamadeh (R-Ariz.) … NYT’s Eli Saslow, Elisabeth Bumiller and Nick Confessore … Ruth Marcus … Chicago Sun-Times’ Lynn Sweet … Anne Marie Malecha … Nick Papas of Airbnb … Jacqueline Cortese … Varun Krovi … James Glueck … Philo Hall … Rachel Kelly of Mastercard … Billy Brawner of Brawner Communications … Jennifer Jose … Diane Cullo … former HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius … David Watts … Donna Leinwand Leger … Barry LaSala … Dan Rothschild of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute … Aaron Morrissey … POLITICO’s Rachel Loeffler … Linda Hall Daschle … Nora Kohli of Rep. Jim Himes’ (D-Conn.) office … Burden Walker … Ezra Thrush of Ridge Policy Group … Rob Simms … Jen Stout … People’s Kyler Alvord … Trace Scruggs of the Herald Group Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.
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