| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
| | | |  Sunshine State Democrats will settle on a nominee to take on Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis as his national star ascends. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | COUNTDOWN — 11 weeks until Election Day. PRIMARY DAY — Some of the year's most consequential (and highly anticipated) primary battles will be decided tonight in two of the largest states in the country: New York and Florida. NEW YORK STATE OF MIND: "Democrats began the year clinging to New York state as a bulwark against GOP gerrymandering and a potentially brutal midterm. Instead, it's become a giant headache," Ally Mutnick writes in a primary-morning look at the Empire State's outsize importance in determining control of the House of Representatives. Dems' expectations vs. reality: "A redistricting mishap and President JOE BIDEN's lingering toxicity upended Democratic hopes of creating a seawall of deep-blue seats that could offset House losses elsewhere. They started the cycle thinking they could net at least three seats — now, in the worst-case scenario, they could lose as many as five." Former Rep. STEVE ISRAEL (D-N.Y.), who once chaired the DCCC: "We've gone from a map that looked like a slam dunk to just being slammed." WHAT TO WATCH FOR TODAY: — The general election pulse check: Democrat PAT RYAN and Republican MARC MOLINARO square off in the existing NY-19 for what is both the biggest House special election since Roe was overturned and the last special election ahead of November. It also happens to be in one of America's true tossup seats: Biden won the district in 2020, DONALD TRUMP carried it in 2016, and BARACK OBAMA was victorious there in 2012. Another reason it could be a good bellwether: "both candidates in this swing seat have centered their campaigns on topics that will be the center of their parties' messaging in the fall: abortion, in the case of Ryan, and inflation for Molinaro," as Zach Montellaro, Gary Fineout and Bill Mahoney write in their curtain-raiser this morning. As Ryan recently told POLITICO: "A win here would validate that the ground is shifting." Get up to speed: "Want to know if a red wave is happening? Watch this special election next week," by Ally Mutnick and Sarah Ferris — The clash of the titans: After redistricting threw two incumbents in a fight unlike anything either of them have faced in years, Reps. JERRY NADLER and CAROLYN MALONEY have spent most of the time "trading barbs about their service in Congress and Maloney floating rumors about whether Nadler was going to finish out his term," our team writes. Get up to speed: "Maloney kicks NY-12 campaign into overdrive. But will it be enough?" by Sally Goldenberg and Georgia Rosenberg … "Only a Couple of New York Neighbors Can Fight This Nasty," by N.Y. Mag's Ross Barkan — The mad dash for an open NYC seat: The Democratic field in NY-10 is as packed as a rush-hour subway car. There's Rep. MONDAIRE JONES, who moved from his Rockland/Westchester County seat to run; former federal prosecutor DAN GOLDMAN; current state Assemblymember YUH-LINE NIOU; former Brooklyn DA and Rep. LIZ HOLTMAN, who first served in Congress during the Watergate era; and city Council Member CARLINA RIVERA, among others. Goldman is viewed as a favorite as the large field splits up votes on the left. Get up to speed: "Progressives confront a crowded house in New York City," by Nicholas Wu — The marquee establishment-vs.-progressive race: After redistricting cut his old seat into pieces, Rep. SEAN PATRICK MALONEY opted to run in the suburban NY-17. He faces progressive state Sen. ALESSANDRA BIAGGI in a battle that has taken on many of the hallmarks of the establishment-vs.-outsider matchups that have rattled the Democratic Party in recent years. (In short: SPM has the support of Speaker NANCY PELOSI; Biaggi is backed by Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ.) Maloney is favored to win, and a source in SPM's orbit told us Monday night that "anything double-digits would be a decisive victory, and the campaign feels confident." Get up to speed: "The New York Primary Being Watched by A.O.C., Pelosi and the Clintons," by NYT's Katie Glueck and Nicholas Fandos … "Biaggi wants to defeat the DCCC boss in New York. Her ex-staff has a story to tell," by Anna Gronewold — The big upstate GOP primary: In safely red NY-23, CARL PALADINO, a Buffalo-based millionaire and political gadfly who was the party's gubernatorial nominee in 2010, faces NICK LANGWORTHY, the chair of the New York GOP. Get up to speed: "'Crazy Carl' tries to tone it down as Paladino sees House seat within reach," by Bill Mahoney MEANWHILE, IN FLORIDA: Sunshine State Democrats will settle on a nominee to take on Republican Gov. RON DeSANTIS as his national star ascends. In one corner, there's CHARLIE CRIST, the current Democratic congressman and former Republican governor. In the other is state Agriculture Commissioner NIKKI FRIED. Our own Gary Fineout writes in from Florida with what you should know: — The big picture: "We expect Crist to win — and leap into his third quest for governor (he lost to RICK SCOTT in '14 as a Democrat). But an upset win by Fried would show that the repeal of Roe v. Wade is a big motivating force for Democrats." Get up to speed: "Democrats face first test in bid to defeat DeSantis," by WaPo's Tim Craig — What a Fried win would mean: "A Fried vs. DeSantis clash would likely be a more interesting matchup given the animus that exists between the two. Fried would be trying to become Florida's first ever female governor. And if she wins the primary, then she continues to make abortion rights a focal point of her campaign." Get up to speed: "She was Florida Dems' 'new hope.' Then a veteran pol stepped between her and DeSantis," by Matt Dixon and Gary Fineout — What a Crist win would mean: "Crist represents, in a way, a test to see if the Biden formula can work at the state level. Crist can go negative, and he's been critical of DeSantis, but he has tried to paint himself as someone who is less divisive and not as combative as DeSantis and focused on pocketbook issues instead of culture wars." The deep dive you should read: "Running on 'the Hug': Inside Charlie Crist's Risky Strategy to Dethrone Ron DeSantis," by Michael Kruse — What DeSantis' camp wants: "Republicans, of course, remain supremely confident they will win regardless of the Democratic nominee. DeSantis and his camp want to win the state by a margin that beats Donald Trump's in 2020 and shows that Florida is no longer a battleground state." Get up to speed: "How the DeSantis campaign machine is ready for November," by Gary Fineout For more on Florida, be sure to listen to Gary give the full readout on this morning's Playbook Daily Briefing — and subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Today's also the Oklahoma primary runoffs, including the GOP Senate race. Rep. MARKWAYNE MULLIN is the favorite over former state House Speaker T.W. SHANNON. Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
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Learn more about our work ahead. | | | MAR-A-LAGO FALLOUT — Exactly how many classified documents did Trump have at Mar-a-Lago? Within the past 24 hours, the reported scope of the haul has ballooned: — On Monday evening: NYT's Maggie Haberman, Jodi Kantor, Adam Goldman and Ben Protess reported that Trump "had more than 300 classified documents at M ar-a-Lago," spanning the files the National Archives got in January, those DOJ obtained in June and those seized in the Mar-a-Lago FBI search this month. The initial batch retrieved by the Archives included more than 150 classified files, which set off alarm bells at the Justice Department and triggered the series of events that led us here. — Early this morning: "The National Archives found more than 700 pages of classified material — including 'special access program materials,' some of the most highly classified secrets in government — in 15 boxes recovered from Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in January, according to correspondence between the National Archivist and his legal team," Kyle Cheney reports. "The May 10 letter — posted late Monday on the website of JOHN SOLOMON, a conservative journalist and one of Trump's authorized authorized liaisons to the National Archives to review papers from his presidency — showed that NARA and federal investigators had grown increasingly alarmed about potential damage to national security caused by the warehousing of these documents at Mar-a-Lago, as well as by Trump's resistance to sharing them with the FBI. "These records included 700 pages of classified material, according to the letter, sent by National Archivist DEBRA WALL to Trump's attorney, EVAN CORCORAN, and it doesn't include records recovered by the Justice Department and FBI during a June meeting and the Aug. 11 search of the Mar-a-Lago premises." This is a developing story, so stay tuned. TRUMP MAKES HIS MOVE — The former president requested a "special master" to be appointed to go through the documents the FBI seized and screen for material protected by executive privilege, per Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney. The filing "also confirmed aspects of the timeline related to the Mar-a-Lago search, including the fact that the Justice Department issued two subpoenas prior to the search." Trump's demand will go to either Magistrate Judge BRUCE REINHART or District Court Judge AILEEN CANNON, a Trump appointee. Read the filing here
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THE HOUSE and THE SENATE are out. | | | | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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New York Gov. Kathy Hochul introduces Pat Ryan during a campaign rally for Ryan on Monday, Aug. 22, 2022, in Kingston, N.Y. | Mary Altaffer/AP Photo | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | THE WHITE HOUSE STUDENT LOAN LATEST — As the country awaits the White House's decision on whether to cancel student loan debt, Biden officials are now leaning toward wiping out $10,000 per borrower for people who make less than $125,000 annually, CNN's MJ Lee and Phil Mattingly report. The announcement could come as soon as Wednesday, though it's not final yet. "In addition to that baseline of student loan debt forgiveness for individuals who fall under a certain income level, administration officials have also recently discussed the possibility of additional forgiveness for specific subsets of the population." CONGRESS IRA IMPACT — Tucked into Democrats' reconciliation bill is a language change that could have major consequences: The landmark law officially defines greenhouse gases as pollution, undoing the rationale the Supreme Court used to limit the EPA's abilities this year, NYT's Lisa Friedman reports. That could make future legal challenges to EPA climate action much more difficult to succeed. McCONNELL SPEAKS — Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL pushed back against fears about the state of American democracy that are prevalent on the left and the right, per NBC's Zoë Richards and Kate Santaliz. McConnell said the U.S. has "very little election fraud" (contrary to a central tenet of many GOP platforms), and that "we have a very solid democracy … I don't think of the things that we need to worry about, I wouldn't be worried about that one." FOR YOUR RADAR — "Stephen Alford sentenced to five years in prison for scheme to extort $25M from Gaetz family," by the Northwest Florida Daily News' Tom McLaughlin ALL POLITICS 2024 WATCH — Virginia Gov. GLENN YOUNGKIN will travel to Georgia, Kansas, New Mexico, Oregon and Nevada (an early-voting state as he eyes 2024) in his midterm campaigning, Alex Isenstadt scoops this morning. The Nevada stop will be a Sept. 15 event with GOP gubernatorial nominee JOE LOMBARDO. Youngkin will also attend a Susan B. Anthony List gala. LATEST SENATE POLLS — Nevada: Democratic Sen. CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO up 7 over ADAM LAXALT, 45% to 38%, per Suffolk. … Ohio: Republican J.D. VANCE up 5 over Rep. TIM RYAN (D-Ohio), 50% to 45%, per Trafalgar. QUOTE OF THE DAY — "They continue to try to fool you that they are helping you out. But they're not. Because a lot of money it's going to trees. Don't we have enough trees around here?" That's Georgia GOP Senate nominee HERSCHEL WALKER on the Inflation Reduction Act, via The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Patricia Murphy, Greg Bluestein and Tia Mitchell, who also report that national Republicans are coming to Walker's aid with investments from the Senate Leadership Fund. DEMOCRACY DIGEST — The lawyers who obtained Georgia and Michigan voting system files while trying to overturn the 2020 election shared them on a server where they were accessed by 10 "election deniers, conspiracy theorists and right-wing commentators," WaPo's Jon Swaine, Aaron Davis, Amy Gardner and Emma Brown scoop. The data came from Dominion Voting machines, and the new revelations also show that SIDNEY POWELL and JESSE BINNALL signed contracts with SullivanStrickler, the company that put the records on the server. CASH DASH — After the NYT scooped BARRE SEID's colossal $1.6 billion gift to LEONARD LEO's nonprofit, The Lever's Andrew Perez and ProPublica's Andy Kroll and Justin Elliott dive deeper into "the largest known donation to a political advocacy group in U.S. history." The Marble Freedom Trust, which was kept secret for more than two years, stands to reshape the American political landscape thanks to an under-the-radar donor and business titan who "has spent most of his 90 years painstakingly guarding his privacy." Seid and Leo worked together at the Chicago Freedom Trust, though the extent of their relationship is unclear. JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH THE INVESTIGATIONS — The Justice Department issued a new subpoena last week to the National Archives, going beyond its previous request for the documents the House Jan. 6 committee had already received, CNN's Jamie Gangel and Evan Perez scoop. HOW CLOSE THEY CAME — A new court filing shows that a Capitol Police special agent said a member of the Proud Boys came within four or five seconds of reaching Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER on Jan. 6, per CNN's Hannah Rabinowitz. ABORTION FALLOUT BY THE NUMBERS — 21 million American women have now had just about all abortion access closed off in their states, and that number could grow to about 36% of the population once new laws take effect and if injunctions on other bans are lifted, WaPo's Katie Shepherd, Rachel Roubein and Caroline Kitchener report . Trigger laws in Idaho, Tennessee and Texas are all scheduled to go into effect Thursday, kicking off a scramble among some women in those states. More could yet follow.
| | | | A message from Facebook:   | | | TRUMP CARDS PORTRAIT MODE — Trump's Save America PAC gave $650,000 to the Smithsonian to pay for portraits of the Trumps in the National Portrait Gallery, an unusual move, Insider's Dave Levinthal reports. The artists have been commissioned and the work is underway, though their names and timing haven't been released yet. The portraits are also being funded by another donation from "a family" that the Smithsonian didn't specify. AMERICA AND THE WORLD IMMIGRATION FILES — The thousands of asylum seekers that Republican border-state governors have bused to D.C. and New York are caught in a political battle far removed from their more tangible concerns, AP's Bobby Caina Calvan and Ashraf Khalil report. "For migrants, the politics are only dimly understood — and far less relevant than finding temporary shelter, jobs and a long-term home in America." — Meanwhile, the Pentagon again rejected a request from D.C. Mayor MURIEL BOWSER to provide National Guard support to help handle the influx. More from Reuters RODMAN REDUX — The State Department criticized DENNIS RODMAN's plans to go to Russia to try to help free BRITTNEY GRINER — and then Rodman said he's not actually going, ABC's Deena Zaru and Shannon Crawford report. JUST POSTED — "US: Russia looks to step up hits on Ukraine infrastructure," AP's Aamer Madhani BEYOND THE BELTWAY ONE TO WATCH — An ethics complaint against Gov. KRISTI NOEM was referred to the state AG's office to investigate Monday, per the Sioux Falls Argus Leader. The ethics board also said Noem might have "engaged in misconduct" in a separate matter involving her daughter's application for an occupational license, per AP's Stephen Groves. "The board's moves potentially escalate the ramifications of investigations into Noem. … However, the retired judges left it unclear how they will proceed." MEDIAWATCH TURMOIL AT CNN — The firing of BRIAN STELTER and the end of "Reliable Sources" has some CNN staffers worried that CHRIS LICHT did so to appease billionaire JOHN MALONE, who wants the network to be "centrist," The Daily Beast's Lachlan Cartwright reports. "[M]ultiple current and former staffers who spoke to us relayed a fear that the libertarian mogul is indirectly dictating an agenda to newly installed CNN boss Chris Licht. Sources further suggested that internal fears about future changes stem from how Licht has kept his cards close to his chest, with members of his own management team being left in the dark about next moves." VALLEY TALK MISINFO SZN — As the midterms swiftly approach, social media giants like Facebook and TikTok have detailed their plans to combat political misinformation on their platforms, NYT's Stuart Thompson reports . "Facebook will also expand its efforts to address harassment and threats aimed at election officials and poll workers. Misinformation researchers said the company has taken greater interest in moderating content that could lead to real-world violence after the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol."
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Chuck Grassley celebrated his 68th (!) wedding anniversary. Alex Jones publicly assured Donald Trump that he had not abandoned him for Ron DeSantis. Pete Buttigieg used "Love Actually" to make the case for the importance of transportation. Sonia Sotomayor now has a San Antonio high school named after her. IN MEMORIAM — "David A. Kay, Who Searched for Nuclear Weapons in Iraq, Dies at 82," by NYT's Clay Risen: "As the George W. Bush administration began to build a case for invading Iraq in 2002, Dr. Kay became one of the most prominent defenders of its assertion that [Saddam] Hussein had, despite U.N. surveillance, continued and expanded his efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction. But when Dr. Kay returned to Iraq, in the summer of 2003, he found that Mr. Hussein's unconventional weapons program had been largely abandoned." WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Trey Baker is joining Barnes & Thornburg as a partner, per Bloomberg's Mario Parker. He previously was a senior White House adviser for public engagement and an administration conduit to Black voters. STAFFING UP — Stephanie Psaki is now a director for global health response in the NSC's development and global health directorate. She most recently was senior adviser on human rights and gender equity in the Office of Global Affairs at HHS. TRANSITIONS — Aidan McDonald is now speechwriter for Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.). He most recently was with Sen. Tom Carper's (D-Del.) office, and is a Biden campaign alum. … Jon Skladany is now senior comms officer at the IMF, focused on Congress and the Treasury Department. He previously was chief counsel for the House Oversight and Financial Services GOP. WEEKEND WEDDING — Emily Saleme of Sen. John Thune's (R-S.D.) office and Luke Graeter of Rep. Brad Wenstrup's (R-Ohio) office got married Saturday in Cincinnati. The ceremony was held at St. Thomas Episcopal Church in Terrace Park, and the reception was held at the Pinecroft at Crosley Estate. The couple met in 2016 at The Ohio State University. Pic … Another pic … SPOTTED: Rep. Brad Wenstrup, Avery Pierson, Greg Brooks, Alex Igleheart, Chris Krepich, Julia Prus, Stephen Hostelley, Casey Quinn, Kate Doherty, Michael Rauber, Morgan Gang, Ashlynne Beninga, Isabelle Bock and Morgan DeWitt. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Eric Wachter, a managing director in FGS Global's D.C. office and a King & Spalding and ADL alum, and Miriam Wachter, an attending emergency medicine physician at MedStar Washington Hospital Center, welcomed Rachel Merav Wachter on Aug. 15. She joins big brothers Joshua and Daniel. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer … Kari Lake … Reps. Scott Franklin (R-Fla.) and Kim Schrier (D-Wash.) … Stephen Miller … Axios' Alexi McCammond … NBC's Mike Memoli and Julie Tsirkin … Roll Call's Niels Lesniewski ... National Association of Manufacturers' Brian Walsh … Richard Chalkey … Bradley Singer of WME … POLITICO's Caitlin Oprysko and Madina Touré … Miriam Sapiro … E&E News' Kadija Jalloh … Targeted Victory's John Hall … Tom Nowlan … Todd Van Etten of the Herald Group … Rob Bluey ... WaPo's Annah Backstrom Aschbrenner ... Ted Newton … Jesse Connolly of Rep. Chellie Pingree's (D-Maine) office … Brunswick Group's Patti Solis Doyle … ProPublica's Craig Silverman … Ian Jefferies of the Association of American Railroads … Jenna Alsayegh of USTelecom … Bryer Davis of Sen. Amy Klobuchar's (D-Minn.) office … David Wickenden of AARP … Jessica (Jensen) Ketner … former Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam … former California Gov. Pete Wilson … Ed Mitchell (75) … Joe Armstrong (79) … Robert Garrett of Hackensack Meridian Health Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
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