As the one-year anniversary of Jan. 6 approaches this week, news outlets are out with a spate of new polls showing how the siege of the Capitol has affected American politics.
THIS IS BAD — Roughly 4 in 10 Republicans and independents say that violent action against the government is sometimes justified, according to a startling new WaPo-University of Maryland poll.
Overall, "the percentage of Americans who say violent action against the government is justified at times stands at 34 percent, which is considerably higher than in past polls by The Post or other major news organizations dating back more than two decades," write WaPo's Dan Balz, Scott Clement and Emily Guskin. "Again, the view is partisan: The new survey finds 40 percent of Republicans, 41 percent of independents and 23 percent of Democrats saying violence is sometimes justified."
THIS IS BAD, PART II — A new CBS/YouGov poll finds that 68 percent of respondents see the Jan. 6 attacks as "a harbinger of increasing political violence, not an isolated incident," write CBS' Anthony Salvanto, Kabir Khanna, Fred Backus and Jennifer Depinto. "That leads to larger misgivings. When people see it as a sign of increasing violence, they're more likely to think violence is a reason democracy is threatened."
— "There is 12% of the country , and a fifth of Trump's 2020 voters, that want Trump to fight to retake the presidency right now, before the next election. … [A] third of the people within that 12% say he should use force if necessary. While that only amounts to 4% of the population, it still translates into millions of Americans effectively willing to see a forceful change in the executive branch."
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The CBS crosstabs about what happened that day are equally telling:
— Among Democrats, 85 percent call the riot an "insurrection" in which people were "trying to overthrow government."
— Among Republicans, only 21 percent said the former and 18 percent the latter. GOP voters were more likely to say that the rioters were motivated by "defending freedom" (56 percent) and "patriotism" (47 percent). More on the results
THIS IS SURPRISING — On Capitol Hill, Republicans overwhelmingly oppose the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack.But in the rest of the country, it's a different story. That's one topline of a new POLITICO/Morning Consult survey that finds 40 percent of Republican voters approve of the Jan. 6 committee, while 44 percent disapprove and 16 percent have no opinion.
"Overall, three-fifths of those surveyed backed the Jan. 6 committee, and two-thirds said it was important that the federal government probe the events surrounding the attack on the Capitol," writes Nick Niedzwiadek.
Other key takeaways:
— Who do voters blame for Jan. 6? While 59 percent of voters said DONALD TRUMP was "somewhat" or "very" responsible, there were actually two entities they blamed equally or more: the news media (59 percent) and social media companies (66 percent).
— Who do voters think attacked police and broke into the Capitol on Jan. 6? Sixty-two percent correctly characterized the rioters as Trump supporters, while 14 percent IDed them as Trump opponents. Nearly one-in-four voters, 24 percent, said they didn't know.
— Will Jan. 6 affect who they vote for in the midterms? Forty-seven percent said it will have "no impact at all," 22 percent said it'll have a minor impact, and 31 percent said it'll have a major impact. The topline results… the crosstabs
THIS IS WHERE WE ARE — Per a new ABC/Ipsos poll, 65 percent of Americans believe that President JOE BIDEN's 2020 victory was legitimate, down slightly from the 68 percent who believed that in a ABC/Ipsos survey last January.
Rep. BENNIE THOMPSON (D-Miss.) on CNN's "State of the Union," on the events of Jan. 6: "What we have been able to ascertain is that we came perilously close to losing our democracy. … Had those insurrectionists been successful, we are not certain what we would have had, had it not been for the brave men and women who protected the Capitol in spite of being woefully outnumbered."
— On whether or not the Jan. 6 investigation could result in a criminal charge referral for Trump: "We don't know. We're in the process of trying to get all the information. But I can say if there's anything that we come upon as a committee that we think would warrant a referral to the Department of Justice, we'll do that."
NIAID director ANTHONY FAUCI on ABC's "This Week With George Stephanopoulos," on what to expect next with Omicron: "One of the things that we hope for is that this thing will peak after a period of a few weeks and turn around. We have seen that happen in South Africa … as quickly as the surge went up, it turned around. … [T]here's no doubt about it, the acceleration of cases that we have seen is really unprecedented, [and has] gone well beyond anything we have seen before."
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Snow covers an area affected by the Marshall Wildfire in Louisville, Colo. | Jack Dempsey/AP Photo
PLAYBOOK READS
JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH
TRUMP, ONE YEAR LATER — On Thursday, when Trump speaks at his Jan. 6 news conference at Mar-a-Lago, "he will set the table for a midterm election year with him firmly at the Republican Party's center," writes David Siders.
— What to expect from Trump this week: "If he follows the script laid out in his announcement of the news conference, he will commit a whitewashing of [the attacks on Jan. 6, 2021], repeating the lie that the 2020 election was rigged and defending his part in fomenting the insurrection — all while a solemn prayer service is held at the Capitol, in a vivid split-screen moment. And, as Trump castigates Republicans not toeing his line, his event will also serve as a marker of Trump's extraordinary dominion over the GOP."
— A reminder that this is not what many people expected to happen: "One year ago, many prominent Republicans predicted Trump's behavior on and ahead of Jan. 6 would relegate him to the fringes of the right, shaming the GOP back into the mainstream. Instead, the opposite has happened. … 'It's extraordinary,' said RALPH REED, the Republican strategist and founder of the Faith & Freedom Coalition. 'You could make the argument that he's in a stronger position within the Republican Party today than he perhaps ever has been.'"
POLICY CORNER
BRACING FOR TAX SEASON… AGAIN — WSJ's Richard Rubin puts it plainly : "The third tax-filing season during the coronavirus pandemic is set to begin soon with more delays, uncertainty and frustration likely for taxpayers and tax preparers. There will be some signs of business as usual. The individual tax deadline will return to its usual mid-April date for the first time since 2019, and the IRS says it has been steadily reducing its backlog of 2020 returns and other lingering paperwork."
"To left-leaning Democrats … [Abrams] is a superstar: a nationally recognized voting-rights champion, a symbol of her state's changing demographics, and a political visionary who registered and mobilized tens of thousands of new voters — the kind of grass-roots organizing that progressives have long preached. …
"Moderates would beg to differ. They see Ms. Abrams as an ally for rejecting left-wing policies that center-left Democrats have spurned, like 'Medicare for all,' the Green New Deal to combat climate change and the defunding of law enforcement in response to police violence.
"'I don't know that anybody in the party can say, "She's one of us,"' said MATT BENNETT , a founder of Third Way, the center-left group. 'We can't pretend she's a moderate,' he added. 'But the progressives can't say she's a progressive and not a moderate. We're both kind of right.'"
"Most of the nation's largest school districts have decided to forge ahead and remain open, at least for the time being. And the rising number of cases has not yet been followed by a proportionate increase in hospitalizations and deaths, though hospitalizations have increased in recent days — a sign that the Omicron variant seems to cause fewer cases of severe illness. But the highly contagious variant is still racing across the country, and teachers, parents and workplaces are bracing for the impact."
— In California, "employees at all Los Angeles County public and private schools will have to wear medical-grade masks at work and students and staff must wear masks outdoors in crowded spaces under tightened rules issued in anticipation of classes beginning Monday," reports L.A. Times' Howard Blume.
— More than 85,000 cases were recorded in New York on New Years Eve, "the highest one-day total in the state since the pandemic began," NYT's Louis Lucero II notes. The number of positive test results represented roughly 22 percent of the total tests reported by the state.
BEYOND THE BELTWAY
A NAME YOU SHOULD LEARN — On Saturday, ALVIN BRAGG took office as Manhattan's new district attorney, replacing CY VANCE JR.AP's Michael Sisak notes that Bragg, a 48-year-old civil rights lawyer, inherited one major looming investigation from Vance: the ongoing probe into Donald Trump and his business practices.
HOLIDAY TRAVEL HIT (AGAIN) — Thousands more flights were canceled Jan. 1, as airlines continue to reel from staffing shortages because of the latest coronavirus surge and rough winter weather conditions. "As of early Saturday evening, 2,627 flights within, into or out of the United States had been canceled, easily the highest daily total in more than a week of havoc for airlines," WaPo's Paul Duggan reports.
DISPATCH FROM COLORADO — "Nearly 1,000 homes and other structures were destroyed, hundreds more were damaged, and three people are missing after a wildfire charred numerous neighborhoods in a suburban area at the base of the Rocky Mountains," AP's Brittany Peterson and Eugene Garcia report from Superior, Colo. The Boulder County Sheriff said Saturday that "investigators are still trying to find the cause of the wind-whipped blaze that erupted Thursday and blackened entire neighborhoods in the area located between Denver and Boulder."
AMERICA AND THE WORLD
ABOUT THE KABUL AIRPORT ATTACK — NYT's Eric Schmitt writes that "four months after an Islamic State suicide bomber killed scores of people, including 13 American service members, outside the airport in Kabul, Afghanistan, U.S. and foreign intelligence officials have pieced together a profile of the assailant. Military commanders say they are using that information to focus on an Islamic State cell that they believe was involved in the attack, including its leadership and foot soldiers."
The suicide bomber, identified as ABDUL RAHMAN AL-LOGARI, "was a former engineering student who was one of several thousand militants freed from at least two high-security prisons after the Taliban seized control of Kabul on Aug. 15. The Taliban emptied the facilities indiscriminately, releasing not only their own imprisoned members but also fighters from Islamic State Khorasan, the group's branch in Afghanistan and the Taliban's nemesis."
AHEAD OF GENEVA — While both Biden and Putin left this week's talk "hopeful that a pathway to easing tensions could open during diplomatic talks set for January," AP's Aamer Madhani writes that "with less than two weeks to go before senior U.S. and Russian officials are to meet in Geneva, the chasm is deep and the prospect of finding an exit to the crisis faces no shortage of complications."
PLAYBOOK READS
Marjorie Taylor Greene's Twitter account was permanently suspended "for repeated violations of our Covid-19 misinformation policy," the platform announced. Greene responded by calling Twitter an "enemy to America" in a statement on Telegram.
ENGAGED — TRUMP ALUMNI:Charlton J. Boyd, director of executive operations at Jared Kushner's investment firm Affinity Partners, proposed to Ella Campana, who's on the digital team at the America First Policy Institute. The couple met in late summer of 2019 while working in the West Wing of the Trump White House, first talked down in the Navy Mess as Charlton was getting his afternoon froyo. The couple usually go to Hilton Head for New Year's Eve, and he proposed on the 18th Green of Harbour Town Golf Links.Pic ... Another pic
BIRTHWEEK (was Thursday): Ali Weiss … (was Saturday): Jake Wilkins
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Playbook's own Mike Zapler … Judy Miller ... CRC Public Relations' Greg Mueller … Erin Hughes of Marathon Strategies ... Michael Webb ... Christi Layman ... NRSC's Chris Hartline ... Rachel Perrone … former Reps. Henry Bonilla (R-Texas) and Robert Wexler (D-Fla.) … Koch Industries' Cheyenne Foster … Rebecca Bill Chavez … Annie Starke of Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck … Meta's Annie Lewis and Marc Johnson … POLITICO's Ben Storrow … Scott Cullinane … McDonald's Rachel Hicks ... Douglas Faulkner … Alexa Barchuk ... Craig Varoga … Kyle Gazis … Fox Business Network's Elizabeth MacDonald … Ben Sheffner … Alice M. Greenwald … John Thornton of Barrick Gold … Will Jawando ... Forbes' Cyrus Farivar … James Tisch of Loews Corp. … NYT's Annie Tressler … Anna Wishart … Lizzie Langer … Jane Krause ... Charlton Boyd …
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