| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray Good Monday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, busy reading and re-reading this new Harvard study that suggests drinking strong tea and coffee actually lowers your risk of dementia. Truly, the best news your author has heard all year. Now excuse me while I put the kettle on for the 14th time this morning … caffeine lovers — drop me a line and celebrate! PROGRAMMING NOTE: There’s no Playbook Podcast today and no Playbook PM newsletter either, due to the federal holiday. Normal service will resume tomorrow. In today’s Playbook … — A Presidents' Day assessment of the 47th president … — … and why 44 can still command headlines. — Marco Rubio hits the next leg of his European blitz.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
President Donald Trump departs after speaking with reporters at the White House on Jan. 20, 2026. | Alex Brandon/AP | IT’S PRESIDENTS’ DAY: So how’s the president doing? Donald Trump will fly back to D.C. tonight after a long weekend at Mar-a-Lago, where temperatures touched a heady 80 degrees and his golfing partners included — eyes emoji — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Trump also found time to hang with Liz Truss, the former British prime minister famously outlasted in her job by a supermarket lettuce. There was a glitzy Valentine’s Day dinner with first lady Melania Trump, complete with a live band. And he had a good moan about Bill Maher on Truth Social. Not a bad weekend. But how’s he actually doing? It’s a question worth pondering, given next week marks 400 days of Trump 2.0. You’ll remember the absolute whirlwind of the first phase — the DOGE “days of thunder,” the blizzard of executive orders, the Liberation Day tariffs, etc. Phase 2, in the latter half of 2025 (and arguably through Jan. 3) saw Trump go even bigger on his key priorities — immigration, law and order and pursuing perceived political enemies at home and abroad. Phase 3 has felt a little rockier, as my POLITICO colleagues Eli Stokols, Aiden Reiter and Sophie Gardner set out in a just-published assessment. The key feature, they note, has been “a succession of whiplash-inducing policy swings, several of which have almost immediately withered in the face of Republican opposition and public outcry.” Count the U-turns: We’ve had the big immigration pivot in Minnesota. The sudden backtrack on Greenland. The swiftly abandoned plan to cap credit card rates at 10 percent. The 50-year mortgages that came and went in the blink of an eye. There were threats aimed at Canadian bridges and airlines, never followed through. There was a pause on state funds for public health that lasted barely 24 hours. It’s painfully obvious this is no longer a strategy — which is a serious issue as we head deeper into a vital election year. Trump’s approval ratings are “at his lowest point in the second term,” Republican pollster Whit Ayres tells POLITICO. “There’s a sense that this is a pretty chaotic administration, and seems to remind people of the pandemic period in the first term … Joe Biden’s fundamental message in 2020 was to restore normalcy. And that seemed to be persuasive to enough people to get him elected.”
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We're proud of what we do and how we do it. Learn more at WeDeliverForAmerica.org. | | | | Chin up, Don: Beyond the noisy and erratic policy swings, there’s plenty out there for the White House to feel good about ahead of the midterms. Tariffs largely haven’t caused unbearable levels of pain. Trump’s pick to lead the Federal Reserve has been well received. The border clampdown is producing results. Crime rates appear to be down. The high-risk strikes on Iran and Venezuela haven’t backfired. The shaky ceasefire in Gaza holds. And yet: Trump’s personal polling doesn’t bode well for the GOP. “Historically, when [a president is polling] above 50 percent, the party loses seats but not that many,” Ayres notes. “When the president’s job approval is below, the average loss of seats is 32.” Trump’s overall approval rating sits at 40 percent, according to The New York Times daily average of polls. Trump is now polling disastrously on the very two issues that won him the election in 2024 — the cost of living and immigration. And this trend in turn is impacting key demographics. Support for Trump has slumped among Latinos and young men — again, the very two groups whose surging support helped propel him to the White House again. And there’s more: The GOP gerrymander gambit has been largely neutralized. Democratic recruitment for November has gone pretty well. The Jeffrey Epstein saga continues to distract, and even dominate, the headlines. And Dems have mostly found a level of messaging unity (on affordability) almost unimaginable this time last year. But it’s not over: The White House’s big bet is that sooner or later, the impressive economic data — not to mention the GOP tax cuts — will start filtering through and brighten the public mood. There’s no sign of that yet, but it would be a genuine gamechanger as far as the midterms are concerned. But nine months is a very long time in modern politics. The only thing we know for sure is that it won’t be quiet. WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE SAYS: “President Trump pledged to smash Washington, D.C.’s broken status quo, with prior administrations moving at glacial speed and failing to deliver for the American people,” White House spokesperson Kush Desai said. “The Trump administration, on the other hand, has operated at lightning speed over the past year to clean up the Biden economic disaster and enact President Trump’s campaign promises.”
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We're American companies, making American products, with American workers, in America's hometowns. We're proud of what we do and how we do it. Visit WeDeliverForAmerica.org. | | | | PLANET DEM IN THE WILDERNESS: On a weekend when plenty of aspirational Democrats made news — from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and California Gov. Gavin Newsom at the Munich Security Conference; to Maryland Gov. Wes Moore in a CBS town hall — the party’s most enduringly popular statesman still managed to grab headlines. Former President Barack Obama, courtside at the NBA All-Star Game in Los Angeles last night, ended up catching a loose ball and earning an ovation from the crowd. The Chicago Bulls fan also joshed Reggie Miller about their victories over the Indiana Pacers. “He’s my favorite person in the world,” ASG MVP Anthony Edwards said after the game, adding that he was “kicking it” with Obama the day before. “I told him I was gonna put on a show for him.” (The two also had a viral moment together around the 2024 Olympics.) And how about … aliens? Obama yesterday clarified that although he does believe the odds of extraterrestrial life existing are high, he “saw no evidence during my presidency that extraterrestrials have made contact with us.” The statement followed his weekend interview with Brian Tyler Cohen, in which the former president set conspiracists’ hares running with a somewhat ambiguous answer. Perhaps more importantly: Obama also spoke about the current administration’s behavior in the wake of the racist AI-generated video pumped out on Trump’s social media account. Americans “still believe in decency, courtesy, kindness, and there’s this sort of clown show that’s happening in social media and on television,” Obama said. “And what is true is that there doesn’t seem to be any shame about this among people who used to feel like you had to have some sort of decorum and a sense of propriety and respect for the office.” BACK TO THE CURRENT LEADERS: On CBS last night, Wes Moore told host Norah O’Donnell that he’s not running for president in 2028, and that he doesn’t “see a reason” why he would ever consider doing so. Which is bad news for George Clooney, if nothing else. (Back in Annapolis, Moore’s tense relations with some Democrats could imperil any national bid, Axios’ Holly Otterbein and Alex Thompson report.) But the Maryland governor urged his party to expand its base; focus on cost-of-living issues; and learn from Trump’s speed and aggression in enacting his agenda. 2028 WATCH: As Newsom returns from Munich, he’s got Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) frequently puffing up his presidential ambitions, per Alex Thompson. Meanwhile Ocasio-Cortez — who recent polling shows remains one of the most popular politicians among Democratic voters — drew left-wing plaudits last night for articulating a vision of economic populism that could displace far-right culture wars with a working-class message. But MAGA world was still abuzz over her stumbling response to a question about China and Taiwan, which is being passed around right-wing circles as evidence she’s not up to the job. TRAIL MIX: Iowa Democrat Nathan Sage dropped out of the Senate race, per the Des Moines Register’s Stephen Gruber-Miller. The veteran and novice candidate, who’d run with a working-class populist bent, cited fundraising difficulties. That leaves the June primary as a one-on-one contest between state Sen. Zach Wahls and state Rep. Josh Turek … And Rep. Laura Gillen (D-N.Y.), one of the more vulnerable House Dems, will likely face a primary challenge from the left via Taylor Darling, City & State’s Jeff Coltin scooped.
| | | | POLITICO Governors Summit Join POLITICO's annual Governors Summit, held alongside the National Governors Association’s Winter Meeting, for a series of forward-looking conversations with governors from across the country about how state leaders are setting the agenda for America’s next chapter. Hear from Gov. Wes Moore (D), Gov. Kevin Stitt (R), and more. Register Now. | | | | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD DUST SETTLES IN EUROPE: Rubio is meeting with Hungary’s far right leader Viktor Orbán as his post-Munich tour of MAGA-friendly parts of Europe continues. Rubio and Orbán are expected to “sign a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement” that has been touted by Trump, per AP’s Matthew Lee and Justin Spike. Rubio spent yesterday with Slovakian PM Robert Fico — Europe’s other Trump-aligned leader, and a recent guest of the president’s at Mar-a-Lago. But it’s not all lib-baiting jollity, per Reuters. The tricky question of Hungary’s and Slovakia’s purchases of Russian oil are also on the agenda. Wrapping up MSC: Rubio left Munich after a weekend in which still-shaken European allies were relieved to have no Vance-style U.S. smackdown. But Trump’s actions over the past year have left transatlantic relations strained at best, POLITICO’s Paul McLeary and Laura Kayali conclude. Multiple officials likened the capricious relationship with the U.S. to one with an abusive romantic partner. And nothing has rattled Europe more than Trump’s Greenland threats. “If I were to draw a cartoon, it would be a European saying, ‘Greenland, Greenland, Greenland, Greenland,’” Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) told NYT’s Megan Mineiro. Actions have consequences: European leaders are increasingly looking inward, without the Americans, for the future of their security. And Canada is rolling out a plan to move much of its military spending away from American defense manufacturers and toward Canadian firms, FT’s Ilya Gridneff scooped. But Trump won’t be around forever — and with 2028 wannabes strutting the halls and dominating the conversation, the 47th president had “never felt more like a lame duck” than he did in Munich this past weekend, POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin reports. COMING TOMORROW: the latest rounds of Iran and Ukraine talks. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will be in Geneva for indirect negotiations with the U.S., per the AP. An official in Tehran said the talks would span not just nuclear concerns but potentially energy, mining and aircraft sales too, per Reuters. Meanwhile, CBS’ Margaret Brennan and James LaPorta revealed that Trump told Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu he’d support Israeli attacks on the Iranian ballistic missile program if the U.S. and Iran don’t reach a deal. On Thursday: Trump is set to host the first Board of Peace meeting, which he announced yesterday will include $5 billion in pledges for rebuilding in Gaza. ANOTHER ONE: The Defense Department announced the U.S. tracked down and boarded an oil tanker that fled from the Caribbean to the Indian Ocean to escape U.S. sanctions. More from the AP NOW READ THIS: Norwegian PM Jonas Gahr Støre and Nobel Institute leader Kristian Berg Harpviken try to explain to The Atlantic’s Isaac Stanley-Becker and Simon Shuster why Trump’s threats, cajoling and fury over not winning the Nobel Peace Prize won’t be fruitful. “A candidate who is aggressively campaigning for him or herself will neither be penalized nor privileged,” Harpviken says.
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We deliver $324 billion for the U.S. economy and support 4.2 million jobs nationwide. WeDeliverForAmerica.org. | | | | BEST OF THE REST THE GERRYMANDERING RACE: Utah Republicans said they did gather enough signatures for a ballot initiative that would give the green light to partisan gerrymandering — and allow the GOP to wrest back a congressional seat that a judge found had run afoul of the existing ban, per The Salt Lake Tribune’s Robert Gehrke. It’s a victory for the group advocating for repeal, but hurdles remain: First the signatures have to be verified, and then Republicans will have to convince Utahns to unwind the 2018 voter initiative that barred gerrymandering. SPEAKING OF UTAH: “White House pressures Utah lawmaker to kill AI transparency bill,” by Axios’ Maria Curi: “It’s a sign that the Trump administration is now starting to intervene with the states in its efforts to squash AI regulation. … Republican state Rep. Doug Fiefia’s bill would require frontier AI companies to publish safety and child-protection plans and include whistleblower protections for employees who report safety concerns.” BIG DEPARTURE: John Hurley is leaving Treasury, where he’s been in charge of U.S. sanctions policy, in the wake of tensions with Secretary Scott Bessent, Bloomberg’s Jenny Leonard and colleagues scooped. An ambassadorship may be his landing pad. WHO’S IN CHARGE? “National Institutes of Health faces leadership vacuum as director positions sit open,” by NBC’s Aria Bendix: “More than half of the NIH’s institutes and centers don’t have permanent directors, giving the Trump administration an unusual opportunity to reshape the agency.” BEYOND THE BELTWAY: “Republican State Legislators Rush to Limit Their Own Regulators,” by NYT’s David Chen: “Legislation in South Carolina and at least 16 other statehouses would shift power away from state agencies by subjecting to legislative scrutiny any regulation that would cost at least $1 million to implement. Regulations that do survive would automatically expire after a fixed term unless specifically reauthorized. A federal deregulation bill that would do the same has failed repeatedly to clear the Senate. So the states are taking up the call.” HOLLYWOODLAND: “Warner Bros. Weighs Reopening Sale Negotiations With Paramount,” by Bloomberg’s Lucas Shaw and Michelle Davis
| | | | New from POLITICO POLITICO Forecast is a forward-looking global briefing on the forces reshaping politics, policy and power. Drawing on POLITICO’s global reporting, Forecast connects developments across regions and sectors — including major global moments and convenings — to help readers anticipate what comes next.
➡️ Sign up for POLITICO Forecast. | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | IN MEMORIAM — Ivan Adler died last week at 61 following a battle with cancer. Known as “The Lobbyist Hunter,” he spent 23 years at the McCormick Group before launching the executive search firm Ivan Adler Associates in 2019. An Al Gore alum, he was also “frequently cited by major national publications and was known for his deep understanding of Capitol Hill and his strong bipartisan relationships.” Read his full obituary … And read the 2021 POLITICO profile of Adler, by Hailey Fuchs SCENE SETTER — “Like Trump, U.S. Embassies Are Raising Cash for Lavish July Fourth Parties,” by NYT’s Alexandra Stevenson and colleagues: “In Hong Kong, companies have received ‘America 250’ forms from the U.S. consulate soliciting donations. In Japan, companies have heeded the call and committed to tens of millions of dollars in contributions. In Singapore, the American ambassador pressed for donations before a room full of executives at a dinner at one of the city-state’s most expensive hotels.” TRANSITION — Yael Even is now digital director at the Republican Attorneys General Association. She previously worked for the Transportation Department and is a Sarah Huckabee Sanders alum. WEEKEND WEDDING — Tommy McDonald, co-founder of Fight Agency, and Vanessa McGrath, general counsel at Burro, got married in Fishtown, Philadelphia, on Saturday (Valentine’s Day). The wedding featured an Elvis impersonator, Gritty cupcakes, political buttons, rally and convention signs, a choreographed dance, the groom singing Bruce Springsteen and Robyn, and readings from bell hooks, Ben Franklin and “Andor.” The couple originally met at Voyeur Nightclub at 3 a.m. Pic, via JPG Photography … Another pic … SPOTTED: Joe Calvello, Ruben Castillo, Pennsylvania Supreme Court Justice Dan McCaffery, Rebecca Katz, Julian Mulvey and Margie Omero, Eric Stern, Morris Katz, Neil Makhija, Dave Wasserman, Rachel Cohen Booth and James Booth, Holly Otterbein, Doc Sweitzer, J.J. Balaban, Ondine Fortune, Andy Molholt, Liz Vaida, Pennsylvania state Rep. Nathan Davidson, Nichole Johnson and Rahul and Vanessa Kale. BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Chime’s Mari Savickis HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) … Reps. David Rouzer (R-N.C.), Neal Dunn (R-Fla.) and Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) … POLITICO’s Chris Marquette and Cameron Joseph … Robert Allbritton … Kevin Robillard … Cate Hansberry … Jennifer Steinhauer … Susan Levine … Mike Warren … Sarah Bianchi … Joe Concha … Nigel Cory of Crowell Global Advisors … Jim Conzelman … Walmart’s Bruce Harris … Strader Payton … Susan Platt … Sonya Bernhardt … Kent Talbert … Michelle Tuffin ... Ben Kobren … former Reps. Bradley Byrne (R-Ala.) and Ken Buck (R-Colo.) … Meredith Fineman … Allen Roskoff … Ed O’Keefe of the Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library and Museum … Zee Cohen-Sanchez of Sole Strategies … Mark Vachirawit-Swae of Rep. Jim Baird’s (R-Ind.) office … Paul Blake Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and our deputy editor Garrett Ross. Corrections: Thursday’s Playbook misstated the neighborhood in which Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick lives. It is Berkley. Friday’s Playbook incorrectly stated a guest appearing on MS NOW’s “The Weekend,” due to wrong information from the network.
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