| | | |  | | By Irie Sentner | | Presented by |  | | | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | | 
President Donald Trump in the past week has started a war, fired his DHS secretary and seen jobs fall and oil prices rise. | Alex Brandon/AP | In 2024, Donald Trump won back the White House in a landslide victory, mobilizing his MAGA movement to coalesce around his promises to bolster the economy, avoid foreign wars and enact a mass-deportation operation. In the past week alone, the president has seen the job market contract and oil prices spike. He started a new war with Iran that has sparked a broader regional conflict and so far claimed the lives of half a dozen American troops. He shook up his Homeland Security Department, firing Kristi Noem, the secretary overseeing his deportation agenda, amid allegations of disorder and mismanagement at the agency. And he is expected to endorse the less-MAGA of the two GOP Texas Senate candidates after they skidded into a bitter primary runoff. It’s a politically perilous time for Trump, who must hold together a fracturing coalition and convince voters to show up for Republicans come November — or else the party will lose its majorities in Congress, impeding Trump’s ability to enact his agenda for the final two years of his presidency. The latest blow came this morning, when the Labor Department announced the economy had shed 92,000 jobs in February and lowered estimates for the previous two months. Those poor employment numbers arrived as the war in Iran pushed oil prices close to $85 a barrel, a combination economists warn could weaken the economy, POLITICO’s Sam Sutton reports. And U.S. gas prices jumped nearly 27 cents this week as a result of the conflict — a spike unseen since the onset of Russia’s war in Ukraine in May 2022, AAA found. Both parties are hinging their midterm messaging on affordability, and the latest indicators don’t bode well for Trump, against whom voters have soured when it comes to trusting that he will drive down the cost of living. Senior White House officials are conscious that affordability will be the key issue in November and have said they would dispatch the president to the states to talk to voters about how White House policies are bringing down prices — but the president’s foreign policy moves, including military operations that arrested one dictator and killed another, have dominated the headlines. This weekend, Trump will be announcing another foreign policy objective — a new “Security Initiative in the Western Hemisphere” to be led by Noem as “Special Envoy for The Shield of the Americas,” the president said yesterday. That demotion of Noem — whom Trump is replacing as DHS secretary with Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) — follows months of chaos at DHS that culminated in Noem telling Congress this week that Trump had approved a $200 million ad campaign featuring the secretary. Trump told reporters yesterday he had not. And the president is going to “soon” choose between Texas Sen. John Cornyn and AG Ken Paxton after declining to endorse either in the state’s GOP primary. That also puts him in a difficult position, wedging him between Paxton, a scandal-plagued candidate who has won over the MAGA movement, and Cornyn, a more establishment Republican incumbent seen as a stronger contender against Democratic nominee James Talarico. In another blow to his base, Trump is expected to back Cornyn. Good Friday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. This is Irie Sentner, gearing up for a warm weekend. Get in touch at isentner@politico.com.
| | A message from Anthropic: AI helps most with the hardest work, not the simplest. Anthropic analyzed 2 million conversations and found Claude's biggest impact is on complex, college-level tasks. The Economic Index tracks adoption across every state and occupation. See the data | | | | | | 7 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | 1. IRAN LATEST: Trump today said his administration would not reach a “deal” with Iran until its regime submits to “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,” after which he pledged that the U.S. and its allies would “bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before,” POLITICO’s Gigi Ewing reports. That call for “unconditional surrender” — words he echoed during the 12-day war last year — is a step toward clarifying Trump’s aim for the current war nearly a week after he ordered the initial strikes alongside Israel on Tehran. Siren: “Russia is providing Iran intelligence to target U.S. forces, officials say,” by WaPo’s Noah Robertson and colleagues: “Russia is providing Iran with targeting information to attack American forces in the Middle East, the first indication that another major U.S. adversary is participating — even indirectly — in the war. … Russia has passed Iran the locations of U.S. military assets, including warships and aircraft.” Fallout: Officials from the gulf nations who are now contending with a barrage of Iranian missiles and mass evacuations are complaining that the White House did not give them adequate time to prepare for the strikes, AP’s Samy Madgy and colleagues report. White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said the U.S. operation had sharply reduced Iran’s capacity to retaliate and that the president is “in close contact with all of our regional partners.” Playbook preview: David Satterfield, who served as former President Joe Biden’s Middle East envoy, and Michael Rubin, a former DOD official during the George W. Bush administration, spoke with Playbook’s Dasha Burns on C-SPAN’s “Ceasefire,” where they both expressed skepticism about regime change. “When people are talking about someone being appointed,” Rubin said, “it’s one thing to make that appointment — it’s another thing to keep that person alive without boots on the ground.” Satterfield noted that certain goals, like crippling Iran’s weapons programs, are attainable — but argued that Trump unnecessarily boxed himself into claiming the U.S. would be involved in selecting new leadership. Watch the clip 2. BONDI IN A BIND: “Why Kristi Noem's ouster could mean trouble for Pam Bondi,” by POLITICO’s Hailey Fuchs: “Noem’s back-to-back disastrous congressional hearings this past week laid bare the extreme lack of confidence among Republicans in the outgoing secretary’s leadership, and revealed the extent to which Trump can be influenced by the sentiment of lawmakers in his party. For [AG Pam] Bondi, the situation is becoming increasingly dire.” A White House spokesperson said Trump has “full faith” in Bondi. A DOJ spokesperson defended Bondi’s handling of the release of the Epstein files and said any members critical of Bondi “refuse to accept the truth.” 3. WHAT DO YOU MEANS: Casey Means, the MAHA influencer whom Trump tapped to serve as surgeon general, has done the seemingly impossible: She’s united vaccine skeptics and the mainstream medical establishment, both of which are urging senators to vote against her confirmation, POLITICO’s Amanda Friedman and Carmen Paun report. Means will need every Republican in the chamber to vote for her to become the country’s top doctor, but some are beginning to reassess what it would mean to have a vaccine skeptic in the role. At the same time, Means told lawmakers this week that vaccines were not a “core” part of her platform — also alienating anti-vax activists.
| | | | POLITICO Forecast In a fragmented global landscape, understanding how policy and politics intersect across borders is critical. Forecast synthesizes POLITICO’s global reporting to connect key developments and global convenings, giving readers a clearer view of what’s ahead. Subscribe Now. | | | | | 4. KNIVES OUT FOR HUTCHINSON: GOP lawmakers are asking the Justice Department to pursue charges against Cassidy Hutchinson, the former Trump aide who became a key witness in the House’s investigation of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, CNN’s Katelyn Polantz and colleagues scoop. Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Ga.), who has long sought to rewrite the history of the insurrection, made a criminal referral of Hutchinson to the DOJ, two sources told CNN, accusing her of lying to Congress. DOJ, Hutchinson and Loudermilk did not respond to CNN’s requests for comment. 5. JUDGES CRY FOUL: “Judges keep ordering immigration hearings — but say the results are often a sham,” by POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney: “Increasingly … judges are finding that the hearings they’re ordering — conducted by immigration judges who work for the Trump administration — have been fundamentally flawed or even pre-cooked, designed to result in findings of ‘danger to the community’ or ‘flight risk’ without a fair consideration of the evidence.” 6. PARDON ME: “Pardon Industry Offers Rich Offenders a Path to Trump,” by NYT’s Ken Vogel: “[Trump’s] transactional approach to clemency has been welcomed by white-collar offenders like those serving time at the Otisville camp, a minimum-security facility about 75 miles northwest of Manhattan. Many of its inmates cheered Mr. Trump’s election, seeing him as a kindred spirit who shares their grievances about the unfairness of financial crime prosecutions like the one that led to his own conviction … Over the course of his first term and the first year of his second, Mr. Trump has granted pardons or commutations to at least nine inmates who served at Otisville’s camp or the adjacent medium-security prison.” 7. WHERE POLITICS IS HEADING: “The Campaign to Take Down Alex Bores Is Just the Beginning,” by Nancy Scola in NYC for POLITICO Magazine: “A leading AI industry-backed super PAC is targeting a pro-regulation candidate — and building a strategy that other politicians will have to contend with.”
| | | | A message from Anthropic:  
| | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | REMEMBERING JESSE JACKSON — Jesse Jackson is being laid to rest this afternoon in Chicago at a funeral service that will feature speeches from all three living former Democratic presidents. The artists Jennifer Hudson, BeBe Winans and Pastor Marvin Winans are scheduled to sing, and the speaker list includes Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, Rev. Al Sharpton, Colombian President Gustavo Francisco Petro Urrego, Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson, Isaiah Thomas, former Presidents Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and Joe Biden, former VP Kamala Harris, and Reps. Jonathan Jackson (D-Ill.), Chuy Garcia (D-Ill.) and Maxine Waters (D-Calif.). James Talarico is also in attendance as a guest of Jonathan Jackson. A REMINDER FOR YOUR WEEKEND — “This weekend’s US clock change is a problem, and there’s a deep divide on how to fix it,” by AP’s Geoff Mulvihill: “Clocks will skip ahead an hour at 2 a.m. Sunday for daylight saving time in most of the U.S., creating a 23-hour day that throws off sleep schedules, plunges early-morning dog walks into darkness and inspires millions of complaints. Even though polls show most people dislike the system that has most Americans changing clocks twice a year, the political moves necessary to change the system haven’t succeeded because opinions on the issue and its potential impacts are sharply divided.” NOT CLICKBAIT — “Why the National Zoo is feeding its baby elephant poop,” by WaPo’s Michael E. Ruane: “Linh Mai has been getting two teaspoons in her formula six times a day. She is receiving the infusions over a 14-day period that ends Saturday. After that, the zoo will monitor her health and will resume the treatments if necessary.” PUTTING WAPO ON NOTUS — Robert Allbritton is exploring significantly expanding NOTUS in the wake of WaPo’s mass layoffs, Semafor’s Max Tani reports. NOTUS editor-in-chief Tim Grieve has pursued several of the remaining star reporters at the Post in a move that could transform NOTUS from a “proving ground for young up-and-coming journalists” to “an immediate player in DC,” Tani writes. The WaPo stalwarts who have been approached include Paul Kane, Matt Viser, Jeff Stein, Drew Harwell, Dan Diamond, Carolyn Hax and more. POLARIZED PRESS — Bryan Leib has launched Red Presswire, a new press wire service exclusively for Republicans. TRANSITIONS — Connor Joseph has joined The States Project as senior director of strategic comms. He most recently worked on Abigail Spanberger’s gubernatorial campaign. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Shahaley Carr Bornstein, senior comms manager at Gates Ventures, and Jake Bornstein, deputy chief of staff and legislative director to Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah), welcomed Edison “Edie” Ro Bornstein on Feb. 26. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the CRH “Women in Construction Week” dinner at Joe’s Seafood: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, Reps. Diana Harshbarger (R-Tenn.), Val Hoyle (D-Ore.), Laura Friedman (D-Calif.), Rob Menendez (D-N.J.), Greg Murphy (R-N.C.), Mark Veasey (D-Texas), Nanette Barragán (D-Calif.) and Laura Gillen (D-N.Y.), Ryan Lindsey and Lauren Schulz. — The Smithsonian American Women's History Museum hosted a reception at the Arts and Industries Building to celebrate the 50th Anniversary of Wonder Woman, with actress Lynda Carter and director Patty Jenkins. SPOTTED: Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), Reps. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) and Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), Puerto Rican Gov. Jenniffer González-Colón, Penny Pritzker, Jane Abraham, Julissa Marenco, Melanie Adams, Kate Bedingfield, Carlos Paz Jr. and Abigail Diaz-Paz. — SPOTTED at N Street Village’s annual Gathering for Good fundraiser at the Marriott Marquis honoring Arielle and Joel Elliott: Norwegian Ambassador Anniken Huitfeldt, Joe Crowley, Paul Ryan, Tom Sietsema, Peter Shields, Sara Conrad, Missy Kurek, Mary Beth Stanton, Elizabeth Wise, Joyce Brayboy, Jessica Zielke, John Hoel, Melissa Maxfield, Amanda Slater, Tim Grieve, Kevin Casey, Kristen Hawn, Becky Cornell, Macey Matthews, Annie Sokolov, Trish Russell, Ashley Jones, Amy Soenksen, Liz Amster, Jo Stiles, Molly Carey and Patti Ross. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.
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