| | | |  | | By Eli Okun and Makayla Gray | | Presented by |  | | | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | | 
Iranians walk past a damaged building as they attend the funerals of Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps commanders today. | AFP via Getty Images | BULLETIN: “U.S. at Fault in Strike on School in Iran, Preliminary Inquiry Says,” by NYT’s Julian Barnes and colleagues: “The Feb. 28 strike on the Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary school building was the result of a targeting mistake by the U.S. military, which was conducting strikes on an adjacent Iranian base of which the school building was formerly a part, the preliminary investigation found. Officers at U.S. Central Command created the target coordinates for the strike using outdated data provided by the Defense Intelligence Agency … Striking a school full of children is sure to be recorded as one of the most devastating single military errors in recent decades.” The White House responded that the inquiry is still ongoing. INFLATION NATION: In another world, President Donald Trump might be breathing a partial sigh of relief today at the latest Consumer Price Index report, which showed prices holding steady in February. In this one, the wartime economy has already rendered the data wildly out of date. By the numbers: Overall inflation was unchanged last month at 2.4 percent year over year, while prices were 0.3 percent higher than in January, POLITICO’s Sam Sutton reports. The trends for core CPI (excepting food and fuel) were little different. The numbers are stubbornly higher than what the Fed prefers, which makes interest rate cuts unlikely, but better than they’ve often been in the long pandemic comedown. Under the hood, the record looked spotty — “‘whack-a-mole’ inflation,” per economist Heather Long — with restaurant, gas and fuel oil prices rising while rent slowed down and used car costs fell. Watch out for March: The bad news for Americans, and for Republicans hoping to avoid voters’ cost-of-living wrath, is that the U.S.-Israel war with Iran has already spiked oil prices, which will ripple out into the broader economy. AAA data shows U.S. gas prices today at an average of $3.58. And how does $200 a barrel sound? That’s what Iranian military leaders threatened today, per Reuters. Intense regional fighting showed no sign of letting up, as a U.K. agency said three cargo ships were attacked in or near the effectively shuttered Strait of Hormuz. Iran claimed that it completely controls the passageway. The workaround: The 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency all agreed today to pump out a record 400 million reserve barrels, aiming to ease the supply crunch and tame prices, per NBC. But the timing remains a question mark: Logistical constraints could make quick relief unlikely, and oil markets were only marginally appeased by the news: Prices dipped briefly and then kept rising, since traders had already priced in the expected IEA release.
| | | | POLITICO's Economy Summit Washington power players are transforming the economy with consequences that reach well beyond Wall Street and Silicon Valley as upcoming midterms add to mounting political pressures. Join POLITICO’s Economy Summit on Wednesday, March 25 for urgent conversations with government and industry leaders about the policy decisions that will determine tomorrow’s market risks and opportunities. RSVP to attend in person or virtually. | | | | | More on the ground: Attacks were reported across Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar today, some of them attributed to Iran. Iran said it would go after banks and major companies, too, as it moved into its “heaviest operation” yet. Israel launched strikes in Tehran and across Lebanon, where a new infantry battalion could further ramp up Israel’s fight against Hezbollah, per NYT’s Aaron Boxerman. The latest from Trump: The administration’s frequently vacillating rhetoric about the war — threatening open-ended escalation in one moment and a rapid conclusion the next — leaned more toward the latter today. The war is ending “soon,” Trump claimed to Axios’ Barak Ravid this morning, because there is “practically nothing left to target.” But Israeli and U.S. officials tell him they anticipate at least a couple more weeks, and Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said it’ll go on “without any time limit, for as long as necessary.” Romania today is working on giving the U.S. a green light to use its airbase, Bloomberg’s Andra Timu and colleagues report. The human toll: More than 1,800 people have been reported killed since the war began, mostly in Iran and Lebanon. And the Iranian strike in Kuwait that killed six U.S. troops also injured dozens more, some of them grievously, CBS’ Jennifer Jacobs and colleagues scooped. More than 30 troops were still hospitalized as of last night, with at least one needing an amputation and others suffering brain trauma or burns. On the Hill: Speaker Mike Johnson and his House GOP leaders weighed attaching the White House’s expected war funding request to a party-line reconciliation bill, POLITICO’s Mia McCarthy and Meredith Lee Hill scooped from Florida. Useful corrective: “There is No MAGA Split on Iran,” by Wake Up to Politics’ Gabe Fleisher: “The war in Iran is unpopular, but that is the case because of opposition from a supermajority of Democrats, a majority of Independents, and a sliver of Republicans — and the Republicans who are opposed overwhelmingly come from the ranks of those who don’t identify with the MAGA movement, not those who do.” Good Wednesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop us a line at eokun@politico.com and mgray@politico.com.
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Learn more. | | | | | | 8 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | 1. NEW ON THE TRAIL: Dorothy McAuliffe, the wife of former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, announced her run for Congress today, in what could be a newly gerrymandered 7th District, the Richmond Times-Dispatch’s Anna Bryson reports. … Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) will announce his run to replace Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) today as the senator becomes the new nominee for DHS secretary, Punchbowl’s Jake Sherman scooped. Cash dash: “Republican spending rises in Kentucky Senate race,” by Semafor’s Burgess Everett: “A group supporting Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., in Kentucky’s Senate race is dropping more money to attack businessman Nate Morris in the Republican primary.” 2. A NOTABLE FLIP: Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) penned an op-ed for the NY Post expressing support for scrapping the filibuster in order to pass the SAVE America Act this morning — marking his latest play for Trump’s coveted endorsement in the Texas Senate primary runoff against Texas AG Ken Paxton, who also supports passage of the voting restrictions bill. Trump called the legislation his “No. 1 priority” for Congress. Paxton also said he would suspend his bid if the bill passes. More from POLITICO’s Gregory Svirnovskiy 3. IMMIGRATION FILES: “DHS Seeks Access to Massive Employment, Salary and Family Database Legally Restricted to Use in Child Support Cases,” by ProPublica’s Eli Hager: “[The database] is called the Federal Parent Locator Service, and it’s meant for finding people who owe child support. Granting access to the Department of Homeland Security … would violate a federal law that explicitly limits its use to determining and collecting child support payments and a handful of other narrow purposes. … But DHS’ ask is being seriously considered within the Department of Health and Human Services.” DHS didn’t respond to detailed questions. 4. BANK ON IT: The Fed, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency plan to propose a package of three new capital requirements, including Basel III, as early as next week, Bloomberg’s Katanga Johnson writes. The changes would ease some requirements for big banks and midsize lenders. Meanwhile in Congress: Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) are introducing new legislation today to get tougher on banks that fail, giving the FDIC more power to recoup executive pay, WaPo’s Andrew Ackerman reports.
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| | | | 5. GREEN SHAMROCKS, GREEN MONEY: At his St. Patrick’s Day White House visit, Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin plans to pledge $6.1 billion in future investments in the U.S. — alongside the traditional bowl of shamrocks, WSJ’s Natalie Andrews scooped. “Irish investments in the U.S. being announced Wednesday include $5 billion over five years from sustainable paper-based packaging company Smurfit Westrock, $1 billion from Kingspan, an insulation and building solutions company and $100 million from nutrition company Glanbia.” 6. THE VACCINE FIGHT: Some members of HHS’ vaccine advisory panel are no longer pushing to stop recommending Covid-19 mRNA shots at their meeting next week, after having previously lent credence to “a debunked theory that DNA contaminants in the vaccines were harmful,” WaPo’s Lena Sun and Rachel Roubein scooped. But across the country, pediatricians are struggling against “a sharp rise in vaccine hesitancy” since the pandemic, NYT’s Apoorva Mandavilli reports. 7. REALITY CHECK: “Senate housing bill DOA in House, Freedom Caucus chair warns,” by POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill and Mia McCarthy: “The chair of the influential House Freedom Caucus warned Wednesday that a marquee Senate housing bill cannot pass the House without changes — casting new doubt on one of the few major pieces of GOP legislation aimed at addressing high prices for Americans.” 8. FOR YOUR RADAR: “Birth control clinics serving millions face federal funding cliff,” by POLITICO’s Alice Miranda Ollstein: “Clinics that provide free and subsidized birth control and other reproductive health services to millions of low-income people nationwide are warning that access could soon be cut off if the federal government continues to delay the funding process. [HHS’] Office of Population Affairs has not yet released the guidance dozens of health care organizations around the country need to apply for a funding cycle that begins on April 1. They had been scheduled to receive that guidance by the end of last year. … HHS did not respond to questions.”
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➡️ Learn More about POLITICO Pro | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | FIRST AMENDMENT WATCH — The government has appealed a judge’s restrictions on federal authorities searching WaPo reporter Hannah Natanson’s devices, WaPo’s Perry Stein reports. The Justice Department argued that Natanson should not get such special treatment as they seek to look through her phone, laptops and more as part of a leak investigation. HEADS UP — A vehicle crashed into a gate outside the White House this morning, per WTOP’s Will Vitka. Authorities said the Secret Service took the driver into custody, and criminal charges are in the works, but no one was injured. Roads nearby were temporarily closed but have reopened. BOOK CLUB — Former first lady Jill Biden will publish a memoir, “View from the East Wing,” on June 2 from Simon & Schuster’s Gallery Books, AP’s Darlene Superville reports. Notably, the book will include her first public comments on Joe Biden’s decision to end his reelection campaign, among other reflections. The book “was kind of cathartic for me to write,” Jill Biden told the AP. TRANSITION — Emma Fenton is now a legislative assistant for the House Veterans’ Affairs Committee. She previously worked for the Senate Commerce Committee. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.
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