| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Megan Messerly discuss the longevity of war in Iran, President Donald Trump’s big Midwest trip today and last night’s special election in Georgia.
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| Good Wednesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, packing a decent raincoat for work along with the obligatory laptop, phone and Yorkshire Tea. Yesterday was the hottest March 10 ever in D.C. … Today, a storm’s brewing. NEW THIS MORNING — Don’t hold your breath for any prosecutions from the Jeffrey Epstein files, POLITICO’s legal columnist Ankush Khardori writes after reviewing the evidence. “Many theories have been floated in recent years about why prosecutors did not bring charges against more people in addition to Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell … Maybe someone was corrupt, maybe someone blackmailed someone,” Ankush writes. “The answer appears to be much more pedestrian: The prosecutors in charge of the case at the time of Epstein’s death concluded that they did not have sufficient evidence to charge anyone else.” That could change — but only if more files are released, or fresh evidence somehow emerges, Ankush writes. The public conversation has moved on to criticism of those who continued to socialize with Epstein after his 2008 convictions — “a perfectly reasonable discussion to have,” but a significant shift from the original accusations of a mass criminal cover-up. In today’s Playbook … — How long can the White House withstand oil price turbulence? We got the answer. — Trump hits the Midwest to sell his affordability message … as gas prices soar. — And the final battle between Nancy Pelosi and forever rival Steny Hoyer is on.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | SIMPLE QUESTION: How much oil price pain can the White House take? About three to four weeks, POLITICO’s Megan Messerly and Nahal Toosi report. New this morning: Administration officials are feeling confident about their ability to ride out the storm after oil prices dropped back to $80 per barrel yesterday following a messaging blitz indicating that the war in Iran will not drag on, Megan and Nahal report. November’s a long time coming: White House officials now believe they have three to four weeks “where they can ride out what they need to” before oil prices become a durable political problem, per one person close to the administration. “Assuming the economy continues to turn around once the active part of the war is concluded, you’ll have the whole summer from May through August to ride the turnaround,” the person said. But but but: That doesn’t mean officials weren’t worried when prices briefly rocketed to $120 a barrel on Sunday night as markets panicked about an extended conflict. “At the worst moments [Sunday] night, it was insane,” another person close to the White House tells Megan. “It absolutely surprised them.” The fraught mood of the markets was exposed again yesterday when Energy Secretary Chris Wright — or one of his officials — posted that message on X claiming (wrongly) that the U.S. had successfully escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. It was swiftly deleted, but the damage was done. “Oil prices whipsawed (again) as traders digested conflicting reports,” POLITICO’s Sam Sutton writes in today’s Morning Money newsletter (for Pro subscribers), “and energy experts were left scratching their heads at how and when safe passage through the strait could be assured.” Certainly not yet: A cargo ship in the strait is being evacuated after being hit overnight by a “projectile,” AP reports.
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Learn more. | | | | As Playbook charted in detail, the administration’s chaotic comms have plagued it through the past 11 days of war. And it’s looking increasingly likely that the scattered messaging has betrayed a broader lack of consideration of how the conflict might actually play out. (You may have seen these comments from Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) after yesterday’s briefing.) The NYT’s Mark Mazzetti, Tyler Pager and Edward Wong lay out the case in a must-read article based on more than a dozen source conversations. The most telling passage: “Inside the administration, some officials are growing pessimistic about the lack of a clear strategy to finish the war,” they write. “But they have been careful not to express that directly to the president, who has repeatedly declared that the military operation is a complete success.” Mission accomplished? Undaunted, Trump takes the show on the road today for the fifth leg of his 2026 affordability tour, and you can expect the cost of living to be top of mind — at least for the parts of his speech when he stays on script. The president is headed for Cincinnati this afternoon and will visit a pharmaceutical firm in Reading, Ohio, before making a speech at a packaging factory in Boone County, Kentucky, around 4:30 p.m.
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| | | | Prices crisis: Trump will be hoping the latest monthly inflation stats — due this morning at 8:30 a.m. from the BLS — are kind. Unfortunately, they’ll also be well out of date — and here’s the inflation stat people really care about: Gasoline in the Cincinnati area was $2.64 a gallon on average this time last year, per the AAA. A week ago it was $2.97. Today it’s $3.43. So will Trump address that affordability issue head-on? Maybe not: The first stop of today’s visit will mainly focus on TrumpRx, the president’s push to lower the cost of prescription drugs. The White House believes this is a genuine vote-winner. Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio told a Cabinet strategy session last month that the biggest takeaway on midterms messaging should be to focus on lower prescription drug pricing. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Just one problem: Ohio voters’ greater financial concern is now the cost of health insurance, according to new polling shared with Playbook’s Dasha Burns from OnMessage Public Strategies, via the Insurance Watchdog Coalition. Their survey found 58 percent of state voters preferred a candidate who would “take on health insurance companies” vs. one focused on Big Pharma. Millions of Americans saw insurance premiums rocket at the start of this year after Republicans allowed expanded Obamacare subsidies to lapse. See the polling memo Round 2: The second leg of Trump’s tour may turn ugly. The president is visiting the Kentucky district of GOP Rep. Thomas Massie, and you can expect Trump to crank the vitriol up to 10. Turning up here is a real power play by the president, who has invited Massie’s primary opponent Ed Gallrein to the event. Massie himself will miss the speech “due to a previously scheduled official engagement,” his spokesperson told Fox News. Meanwhile in France: Those fretting about the high price of oil might just get a helping hand today from the IEA. “The International Energy Agency has proposed the largest release of oil reserves in its history to bring down crude prices,” the WSJ reports. “Countries are expected to decide on the proposal Wednesday. It would be adopted if none objects, but even one country’s protests could delay the plan, officials said.” MORE ON THE WAR: “New Iranian Leader Was Wounded Early in the War, Iranian and Israeli Officials Say,” by NYT’s Farnaz Fassihi and Ronen Bergman …“Hegseth gutted offices that would have probed Iran school strike,” by POLITICO’s Paul McLeary and Jack Detsch … “The U.S. Built a Blueprint to Avoid Civilian War Casualties. Trump Officials Scrapped It,” by ProPublica’s Hannah Allam … “Iran war threatens Board of Peace,” by POLITICO’s Daniella Cheslow
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| | | | ON THE HILL SAVE IT: Senate Majority Leader John Thune is eyeing a vote on the SAVE America Act next week, bringing the intense GOP pressure campaign on the elections bill to a head, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney reports. But given across-the-board Democratic opposition, it’ll be DOA without the elusive “talking filibuster” that Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), Elon Musk and other MAGA diehards have been egging the party to embrace — and which Thune already rejected as too complex without a formal change to the rules. So why bring it up? “I think what they want is they want to see Thune and his leadership team fighting for it,” a person close to the White House told Dasha. “And at least, embarrass the Democrats, make them vote against it, make them say — ‘No, I don't want something that well over half of our voters say they want.’” The episode has put Thune in something of a political pressure cooker as he faces rising heat from conservatives, Jordain writes this morning. For House Republicans, it’s not quite so cut and dry, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill and Mia McCarthy report from Doral. They’ve spent their policy retreat talking about literally everything else — Speaker Mike Johnson laid out his must-pass bills ahead of the midterms and the SAVE Act wasn’t one of them. What did make that list instead: surveillance powers, water projects, infrastructure and a smaller farm bill. HOUSING IN THE SENATE: In the background of the highwire SAVE Act fight, the Senate advanced the bipartisan housing package and teed it up for final passage as early as tomorrow, POLITICO’s Katherine Hapgood reports. The bill has gotten blowback from hard-liner House Republicans, but won broad support from the White House — although Trump is now threatening to block everything until voting reform is passed. SHUTDOWN SOARS ON: The DHS fight remains gridlocked. But the repercussions are starting to strain TSA: unscheduled absences of airport security officers has doubled, with 300 employees quitting since the start of the shutdown, CBS’ Nicole Sganga scoops. CONFIRMATION CORNER: Sen. Markwayne Mullin’s (R-Okla.) confirmation hearing to lead DHS is one week from today. It’s bound to be must-watch TV, especially if the agency remains shut down. And there’s still other crucial nominees waiting for their turn. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) — who vowed to block any appointments to the Federal Reserve over the DOJ investigation into Chair Jerome Powell — said he’s “optimistic it’s going to get cleared up,” POLITICO’s Victoria Guida writes.
| | | | POLITICO's Economy Summit Washington power players are transforming the economy with consequences that reach well beyond Wall Street and Silicon Valley as upcoming midterms add to mounting political pressures. Join POLITICO’s Economy Summit on Wednesday, March 25 for urgent conversations with government and industry leaders about the policy decisions that will determine tomorrow’s market risks and opportunities. RSVP to attend in person or virtually. | | | | | TRAIL MIX PRIMARY COLORS: In Georgia, Republican Clayton Fuller and Democrat Shawn Harris are headed to a runoff in the special election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene, POLITICO’s Alec Hernandez reports. The results narrow down what was a very crowded race for the ruby-red seat — and gives us a few new insights into the political moment. Fuller is widely favored to win the seat given the 14th District’s conservative tilt, but it's worth noting in a field of a dozen Republicans that it was, yet again, the Trump-backed candidate who prevailed. It’s also notable that while Democrats have won just over 30 percent of the vote in this district in the last two presidential elections, Harris carried 40 percent of the overall vote last night — another Democratic overperformance ahead of the midterms. But perhaps the biggest immediate impact is for Johnson — who’ll have to wait another month to improve his razor-thin margins in the House. The runoff will be decided on April 7. Meanwhile, in Mississippi: The matchup for the Mississippi Senate race is set, with GOP incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith set to face Democrat Scott Colom, a district attorney whose nomination for a federal judgeship she blocked, NBC’s Bridget Bowman writes. And in another closely watched primary race, Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) defeated a younger primary challenger, NYT’s Emily Cochrane reports. GOLDEN STATE POLL POSITION: Republican Steve Hilton is pulling in support for his California governor bid, leading the crowded pack of candidates with 19 percent of likely voters — which may spare Democrats from a disastrous dual-GOP runoff, with Hilton facing GOP rival Chad Bianco, POLITICO’s Melanie Mason reports. Tom Steyer (D) is second at 13 percent, with Katie Porter (D), Eric Swalwell (D) and Bianco each at 11 percent. GENERATIONAL RIVALRY: Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), her longtime No. 2, are headed for what may be their last big political clash. Pelosi is throwing her support behind former Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn in the race to replace Hoyer, POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky scoops. That puts her at odds with Hoyer’s handpicked replacement in the race, state Del. Adrian Boafo. VOICE OF GOD: Sen. John Cornyn’s latest ad in Texas, a mid-six figure buy to start, hits his primary runoff opponent AG Ken Paxton, featuring a voice-of-God-like narrator who accuses Paxton of violating three of the Ten Commandments, Playbook’s Adam Wren reports. “Judgment Day comes for all of us eventually,” the commercial’s voiceover warns. The ad is the latest sign the runoff is still very much on — and that Cornyn is fighting for his political life as the political world awaits Trump's expected endorsement. Watch the ad FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Redistricting rodeo: YES Campaign (Virginians for Fair Elections) is dropping its latest version of an ad featuring former President Barack Obama, who waded into the race last week. The 30-second, direct-to-camera spot is backed by a seven-figure spend. Watch the ad
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Learn more. | | | | BEST OF THE REST EVERYTHING IS OIL: Trump announced the U.S. will have its first new oil refinery in 50 years via a new investment in South Texas, per Bloomberg’s Nathan Risser and Will Kubzansky. There are other investments on the horizon, too: Chevron and Shell are closing in on the first major oil production deal with Venezuela since Nicolas Maduro’s capture in January, Reuters’ Marianna Parraga and Deisy Buitrago scoop. 2020, AGAIN: “Arizona Is Now at the Center of Election Investigations,” by The Atlantic’s Yvonne Wingett Sanchez and colleagues: “HSI, [DHS’] investigative branch, devotes most of its efforts to going after transnational drug cartels and human-trafficking networks … [But] Arizona’s acting special agent in charge for HSI, Matthew Murphy, told the state attorney general’s office that his office was now probing the 2020 election in Arizona.” And this is a separate inquiry to the FBI’s election probe in the state, the Atlantic confirms. ICED OUT: White House deputy chief of staff James Blair told House Republicans at their policy retreat to not emphasize “mass deportations” ahead of the midterms — and instead to focus messaging on the removal of violent criminals, Axios’ Kate Santaliz and Marc Caputo report. … And federal judges, frustrated over missed deadlines and defiance of orders on immigration cases, are turning their frustrations onto the DOJ’s political leadership, POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney writes. Jet reset?: “DHS Weighs Nixing Luxury Jet Acquisition amid Widening Fallout from Noem Tenure,” by National Review’s Audrey Fahlberg ANTHROPIC FIGHTS BACK: “Anthropic Tells Judge Billions at Stake If US Shuns AI Tool,” by Bloomberg’s Rachel Metz: “Anthropic PBC told a judge it could lose as much as billions of dollars in revenue this year and urged quick action on its request to block the Trump administration’s declaration of the company as a U.S. supply-chain risk after a blowup with the Pentagon over artificial intelligence safety issues. … A hearing on Anthropic’s request had been set for April 3. The judge moved it up to March 24.”
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➡️ Learn More about POLITICO Pro | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | THIS AGAIN — “‘Titanic’ statue of Trump and Epstein on the Mall draws praise, scorn,” by WaPo’s Joe Heim: “The anonymous artists who have targeted President Donald Trump with satirical statues and installations in Washington struck again on the National Mall on Tuesday morning with an enormous statue of the president embracing the deceased convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein in a reenactment of a famous scene from the movie ‘Titanic.’” MORE ON THOSE SHOES — “The company behind one of Trump's oft-worn shoe brands is suing his administration over tariffs,” by Business Insider’s Alex Bitter and Dominick Reuter: “The company behind some of [Trump's] go-to shoes is seeking a refund for the tariffs he imposed. … Weyco Group, which owns footwear brands including Bogs and Nunn Bush, sued the federal government in December over tariffs … One of the brands that Weyco owns is Florsheim Shoe Company, which makes leather Oxfords that Trump himself wears. The shoes cost about $145 a pair.” OUT AND ABOUT — BGR Group hosted a reception for the DSCC last night, and raised over $400,000. DSCC Chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) spoke to the group for a state of play on key Senate races, and one of her former campaign staffers, BGR’s Jonathan Mantz, also delivered remarks. SPOTTED: Sens. Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), Andy Kim (D-N.J.), Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), Mark Warner (D-Va.) and Chris Coons (D-Del.), Marvin Figueroa, Raghav Aggarwal, Don Andres, Joel Bailey, Mayor Steve Benjamin, Remy Brim, Jen Brown, Patrick Dolan, Dan Farmer, Labriah Holt, Keiffer Mitchell, Briget Polichene, Maya Seiden, Mark Tavlarides, Syd Terry and Fred Turner, Randi Charno Levine, Dustin Marquis and Alex Rogers. MEDIA MOVE — Steve Heuser is joining Vox as executive editor. He previously worked at POLITICO. TRANSITIONS — Frank Steinberg is now SVP of government affairs and policy at Mastercard. He previously worked at Forbes Tate Partners. … Mary Beth (Burns) Gilani is now senior adviser for the office of the spokesperson at the State Department. She previously worked at the American Petroleum Institute and is a Hill alum. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Nikki Budzinski (D-Ill.) … Rupert Murdoch … Ben Becker of Precision Strategies … POLITICO’s Eric He … Michael Holley … Claire Burghoff of Kratos Defense and Security Solutions … Curt Cashour … CNN’s Emily Riley and Elliot Williams … Miguel Almaguer … MS Now’s Christina Arvanites … Erin Clifford … Joe Quinn of SAFE Commanding Heights … Jeff Hayes … Carrie Pugh … Lauren O’Brien of Sen. Todd Young’s (R-Ind.) office … Suzanne Hammelman … Tim Mack … Amy Weiss of Weiss Public Affairs … Libby Marking … former Wyoming Gov. Matt Mead … Jon Cohen … former Interior Secretary Gale Norton … Qorvis’ Brad Klapper … Sam Donaldson … Apple’s Madeline Broas … Charles McElwee … Abbey Schieffer of Rokk Solutions … Jay Reichard of HB Strategies … Matt Sobocinski … Eloisa Melendez … Nick Shapiro … Annabel Teague of Command … John Myron Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.
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