| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray On today's Playbook Podcast: Jack and Dasha wonder whether the DHS shutdown is ever going to end.
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| Good Tuesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, very much enjoying all your kite-flying memories (not to mention your kite-flying praise!) — keep ‘em coming. SO FAREWELL TO MARCH: We’re now a quarter way through 2026 — how’d that happen? — and we can safely say the White House’s election-year plan to swap President Donald Trump’s foreign affairs fixation for a focus on affordability is … not going well. News from the home front: The average gas price in America last night hit the totemic $4 a gallon, per the Gas Buddy Guy. (AAA still has it at $3.99, but will presumably confirm today.) Needless to say, this is going to cut through. Oil prices have now settled above $100 a barrel. And yet the brutal headwinds for the global economy — sky-high energy prices, jet fuel shortages, fertilizer shortfalls — have barely started to hit. While the U.S. is shielded from the worst of it, experts are increasingly pessimistic about the broader outlook. Can we stop now? Still, the prospects for a rapid end to the crisis look slim. For all Trump’s talk of a negotiated settlement, Secretary of State Marco Rubio admitted yesterday that the “probability” is that diplomacy will fail. Expectations of a major escalation involving U.S. ground troops are growing. And WSJ’s Alex Ward reports Trump has told aides he’s prepared to end the war without reopening the Strait Of Hormuz, as press secretary Karoline Leavitt hinted at yesterday’s press briefing. Europe and Asia must be thrilled. But don’t expect to hear any of that from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth when he briefs the press at 8 a.m. Instead, you’ll hear plenty more about successful U.S. attacks, including this bunker-buster raid on an Iranian target last night. You may also hear angry denials about this sensational FT story accusing Hesgeth’s financial broker of inquiring about a possible multimillion-dollar investment in major defense companies just ahead of the war. (FT cites three sources to support the claim; Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell called it “entirely false.”) Give ’em the old razzle dazzle: We won’t hear from Trump himself — Truth Social aside — until this evening, when he and first lady Melania Trump head out for the premiere of “Chicago” at the Kennedy Center. We may even get a war briefing from the red carpet. In today’s Playbook … — Trump’s power over his party faces another series of dramatic tests. — One of the biggest SCOTUS hearings of the year is almost upon us. — And a first look at Trump’s presidential library in Miami. (Spoiler: It’s enormous.)
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | YOU RUN DEEP: We’re all looking for new places to take the temperature of the Republican Party right now, and after last week’s fractious CPAC conference in Texas, it’s worth zooming in today on a state-level election in neighboring Arkansas. Here, a GOP primary runoff to be secretary of state offers another glimpse of the all-consuming battle between what counts for mainstream conservatism these days and the fringier elements of the American right. Hammer time? The contours of today’s election will be familiar to anyone paying attention to Republican politics in 2026. In the red corner sits state Sen. Kim Hammer, who — as the Arkansas Advocate reports — has the overwhelming backing of the local Republican establishment, including Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Sen. Tom Cotton. Hammer is a well-known figure who’s served in state politics for the past 15 years. Chuck Norris? In the even redder corner sits self-styled outsider Bryan Norris, who’s publicly backed by MAGA world favorites like Gen. Michael Flynn and MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell. Norris is a military veteran who admits to “salty” language in his social media use — including lobbing profanities at Cotton — but insists that’s all in the past. He came to prominence in Arkansas politics through a voter-led initiative demanding the use of hand-counted paper ballots in local county elections. He’s now made election security the centerpiece of his campaign, as AP reports — a cause, needless to say, close to MAGA hearts. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — JMart latest: Trump hasn’t personally endorsed in a race this far down the ballot, making today’s contest a gauge of grassroots Republican sentiment rather than the president’s direct authority. But that dynamic will shift in the coming weeks. As POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin writes in a just-published column, a series of special elections and GOP primary battles in April and May will test not just the mood of the Republican Party, but also Trump’s vise-like hold upon it. “The president has put his clout on the line,” JMart writes. “This is the spring of Trump testing.” Coming down the track first are next week’s special elections for a congressional seat in Georgia — to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene — and a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. While neither race is seriously in doubt, both are worth watching for the margin of victory, JMart writes. If Trump’s favored candidate Clayton Fuller doesn’t win by double digits in Georgia “it will illustrate waning enthusiasm on the right,” he reckons. And equally, a blowout double-digit win for Dems in Wisconsin will illustrate “the right’s challenges in a marquee swing state.” The biggest tests for Trump await in May, when the president seeks to oust a series of sitting Republicans who crossed him last year. The most high-profile will be his bid to remove sworn enemy Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky — “Massie’s political career is over, even if he doesn’t know it yet,” Trump’s former campaign chief Chris LaCivita tells JMart — while in Indiana the president is taking on several established, state-level Republicans who blocked his attempt to gerrymander House districts. An attempt to oust Sen. Bill Cassidy in Louisiana is also looming in May. BONUS PRIZE — One more dynamic to watch: “Much has been made of Trump's retribution tour in Indiana,” Playbook's own resident Hoosier Adam Wren writes in. “But just below the surface, there’s a proxy war playing out between two politicians come May: MAGA acolyte Sen. Jim Banks, a close ally to Trump, VP JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr., and former Gov. Mitch Daniels, who represents a different, more genteel strand of Republicanism. “Long ago, Daniels called Banks the future of the Indiana Republican Party. In 2023, they were on a collision course to replace then-retiring Sen. Mike Braun — but Daniels' passed on the race. Daniels opposed the redistricting effort last year, and privately counseled key Indiana senator holdouts against voting for it. Now, Banks and Daniels are in a rematch, with Daniels lending his name and occasionally his presence at fundraisers to defend the holdouts. And Banks world is pushing right back.” A Banks confidant tells Adam: “When we see Daniels is involved, we commit more money.” Important context: All these state-level Republican races are likely to come with Trump at a low political ebb, JMart notes in a late night text to Playbook, with the Iran war dragging on and the chances of a further interest rate cut unlikely. “But his base is so committed that issues are beside the point,” JMart adds. “There’s a gaping chasm between GOP primary voters and the general electorate.” And there’s just no sign of that changing — polls show Trump overwhelmingly retains the support of his base, even with his public approval rating deep underwater. In MAGA world, at least, there’s no sign of any lame-duck effect.
| | A message from Anthropic: Anthropic will cover electricity price increases from its data centers and invest in grid optimization tools, helping keep prices lower for ratepayers. Learn more | | | | SCOTUS WATCH THE CASE EVERYONE’S WATCHING: Tomorrow’s seismic Supreme Court arguments on birthright citizenship are clearly playing on Trump’s mind, as media coverage amps up. The president was raging at the court again on Truth Social yesterday, and has clearly got the message that he’s likely facing another big defeat. Good luck! POLITICO’s legal ace Josh Gerstein tells Playbook the president’s chances of victory on the 14th Amendment are “very, very slim,” given Congress “has passed a slew of laws since the 1860s that accept the presumption that anyone born on U.S. soil — except for children of diplomats and other specific exceptions — is a U.S. citizen.” THE MAN BEHIND THE PLAN: Renouncing birthright citizenship was once a fringe idea relegated to obscure articles in right-wing journals and little-noticed conservative group debates. Tomorrow’s arguments mark the final manifestation of conservative lawyer John Eastman’s decadeslong effort to propel it into the political mainstream, Josh writes in a must-read profile of Eastman this morning. And yes, that’s the same John Eastman who pushed Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 Election. Remember: “Eastman is still battling the fallout,” Josh writes. “He helped concoct the theory that Trump could cling to power by having Vice President Mike Pence refuse to count some states’ electoral votes. That didn’t persuade Pence, but did score Eastman a speaking role at Trump’s Jan. 6, 2021 rally on the Ellipse, where Eastman aired unproven claims of election fraud.” Further reading: “The Supreme Court’s birthright citizenship options,” by the WaPo Editorial Board … “As birthright citizenship goes to Supreme Court, here's how Americans feel about it,” by NPR’s Domenico Montanaro … “Trump’s Birthright Citizenship Order at Supreme Court Splits Conservative Scholars,” by NYT’s Ann Marimow Worth noting: Today is also an opinion day for the high court — meaning other big decisions may be on the way. In particular, campaign obsessives are still awaiting a ruling on a critical provision of the Voting Rights Act that could yet have dramatic consequences for the battle for the House. Watch this space.
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| | | | BEST OF THE REST SHUTDOWN STALEMATE: The DHS shutdown looks poised to stretch on through Congress’ recess, leaving thousands of federal workers unpaid as Washington waits to see which side blinks first, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney and Myah Ward write this morning. Negotiations have gone nowhere, House and Senate Republicans are split, and now the strongest pressure point for a deal — pay for TSA workers — has been eased. Buckle in: One administration official tells POLITICO that “people are thinking this will go into the summer.” More from POLITICO’s Inside Congress Some GOP senators have been clamoring to end recess early to sort things out. But without an apparent off-ramp, GOP leaders are planning to keep Congress out, CNN’s Annie Grayer and Morgan Rimmer report. TSA officers were officially paid yesterday, but persistent absences are still slowing security lines at airports, per CBS’ Nicole Sganga and Kris Van Cleave. RACE OF THE DAY: Josh Turek, the Iowa Democratic state representative locked in an increasingly tense Senate prairie primary with state Sen. Zach Wahls, has picked up an endorsement from Illinois Sen. Tammy Duckworth, Adam scoops. Duckworth’s backing marks Turek's third endorsement from a sitting senator, compared to Wahls’ one from Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. “I know Josh will be a strong voice against Donald Trump’s reckless agenda that’s hurting middle-class Iowans,” Duckworth said in a statement shared with Playbook. WHAT’S TAXING DEMS: “Trump’s overtime tax break is a hit. Democrats aren’t sure what to do about it,” by POLITICO’s Brian Faler. Trump’s tax break for overtime earnings is “already more popular than well-known provisions like the mortgage interest deduction,” Brian writes, and “Democratic lawmakers are divided over how to respond.” The awkward truth for Dems: “For all their antipathy toward Trump’s signature tax cut, some say they like the overtime provision.” IMMIGRATION FILES: Trump’s DOJ closed over 23,000 criminal cases as it focused resources on immigration cases, ProPublica’s David Armstrong and Ken Morales report this morning. Six months into AG Pam Bondi’s tenure, DOJ prosecuted 32,000 new immigration cases, nearly triple the caseload from the Biden administration. But it also pursued fewer prosecutions of almost every other type of crime. WELCOME TO DJT AIRPORT: “With DeSantis signature, Trump airport renaming comes in for landing,” by POLITICO’s Andrew Atterbury: “Travelers in Palm Beach soon will be able to drive down President Donald J. Trump Boulevard to catch a flight at President Donald J. Trump International Airport, all in the shadow of nearby Mar-a-Lago, owned by President Donald J. Trump. Gov. Ron DeSantis quietly signed legislation Monday renaming Palm Beach International Airport after the Republican president, carving into law what will eventually be a massive — and costly — rebranding to honor Trump.”
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Al data centers shouldn't raise your bills. Learn more | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | BUILDING A LEGACY — Eric Trump released plans for Donald Trump’s presidential library in a new video rendering of the mega-skyscraper to be built in downtown Miami. “Over the past six months, I have poured my heart and soul into this project with my incredible team,” the younger Trump wrote. “This landmark on the water in Miami, Florida will stand as a lasting testament to an amazing man.” The images show the skyscraper emblazoned with Trump’s signature logo, with details that echo Trump’s redesign of the White House. There may even be a replica of the Oval Office. More from POLITICO’s Aaron Pellish NOT WHAT TRUMP HAD IN MIND — “Golden toilet statue on Mall pays faux tribute to Trump renovations,” by WaPo’s Joe Heim: “This toilet, spray-painted gold and set on a faux-marble pedestal, is the latest in a series of protest artworks and installations taking aim at President Donald Trump and his administration. A plaque on each side of the structure reads: a Throne Fit for a King.” FOLLOW THE MONEY — “GOP campaign treasurer in Maryland accused of funneling funds toward yacht,” by WaPo’s Peter Hermann: “A Republican campaign treasurer long active in Maryland politics has been indicted on charges that he embezzled $200,000 from a politician and a community organization and funneled the money toward a luxury yacht … James Phillip Appel, 58, who has served as treasurer for several campaigns, pleaded not guilty on Monday in U.S. District Court to charges of wire fraud and money laundering.” PRESIDENT’S BEST FRIEND — Former President Joe Biden and Jill Biden adopted a pair of black Lab-mix puppies named Boo and Scout. OUT AND ABOUT — The Center for Democracy & Technology hosted its Spring Fling in D.C. last night, bringing together state leaders, industry reps and civil society heads for the gala held alongside IAPP’s Global Privacy Summit. SPOTTED: Stephen Balkam, Alan Davidson, Krystal Denley Bowen, Parul Desai, Juleanna Glover, Don Graves, Sally Greenberg, Katie Harbath, Trevor Hughes, Cam Kerry, Travis LeBlanc, David LeDuc, Eli Lehrer, Katherine Maher, James Maroney, Christina Montgomery, Eric Muhlheim, Michael Petricone, Riana Pfefferkorn, Jason Pielemeier, Monique Priestley, Alexandra Reeve Givens, Claudia Ruiz, Gigi Sohn, Audrey Tang and Jenny Yang. MEDIA MOVES — Kelsey Ables, Janay Kingsberry and Will Oremus are all joining The Atlantic as staff writers. They all previously worked at WaPo. … Justine McDaniel has joined the LA Times covering the Trump administration. She previously was at WaPo. TRANSITIONS — The Ohio Democratic Party is adding Cade Leebron as executive director, Marisa Nahem as comms director and Jeremy Blake as political director. Leebron previously managed Rep. Pat Ryan’s (D-N.Y.) reelect campaign. Nahem previously worked for Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.). Blake has worked in Ohio nonprofits, local government and campaigns. … Jared Kuehl has rejoined Shell as VP for corporate relations for the Americas. He previously worked at BHP. … Clare Garvie has joined the Policing Project at NYU School of Law as deputy director of technology law & policy. She previously was at NACDL. … Michaela Kurinsky-Malos has joined Technicolor Campaigns as a principal. She previously worked for Rep. Sarah McBride (D-Del.). WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Liz Elkind, a congressional reporter at Fox Digital, and Liam Quinn, deputy news director at Bloomberg Government, welcomed Kylie Love Quinn on March 26. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Angus King (I-Maine) … Reps. Mark DeSaulnier (D-Calif.) and Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.) … Al Gore … MS NOW’s Ari Melber … CNN’s Astead Herndon … Meghan Hays … Axios’ Brittany Gibson … Michael Yancey … Sara Murray … John Kilvington … Monica Dixon of Monumental Sports & Entertainment … Anthony Giannetti … Advanced Biofuels Association’s Michael McAdams … Lauren Hutchinson … Eric Hoffman of Hoffman Public Affairs … Jean Guerrero … AthleteSpeaks’ Ed Lewis … Alan Zibel … Jessica Dine … former Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) … Neil Moseman … former Reps. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), Jim Marshall (D-Ga.) and Tony Cárdenas (D-Calif.) … Rusty Bermel of Bermel & Co. … Capita’s Joe Waters … Austin Eastridge … Jennifer Molina … Emily Knapp … POLITICO’s Eve Armstrong and Cedric Chan … Christine Senteno … Skadden’s David Zornow … Amal Hijazi of Chainlink Labs … Wellesley Daniels Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.
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