FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Trump lays it out to NATO: “They gotta get guts and go in,” Trump told POLITICO’s Diana Nerozzi by phone last night, discussing U.S. allies’ concerns about the Strait of Hormuz. Trump’s advice for NATO nations was clear: “Just send your ships up there and enjoy it," the president said. Diana spoke with Trump immediately following his primetime address to the nation, which ultimately proved little more than a low-energy retread of his recent comments on Iran. There was neither a plan for a ground invasion, nor any clearer timeline for the end of the war, beyond the “two or three weeks” we’ve heard before. The reaction was instant: Oil prices rose sharply on the back of the address, with U.S. stock market futures tumbling fast. What we did get was threats of a bombing escalation, with Trump vowing to send Iran — a nation of 93 million people — “back to the Stone Age, where they belong.” And there was no respite for those worried by rising oil prices, with Trump reiterating to allies that they will have to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on their own. (He also claimed the Strait will “open up naturally” after the war comes to an end.) Not angry, just disappointed: The only good news for Europe was that Trump did not use his address to renew his attacks on NATO. “I don't have any thoughts on NATO. I’m disappointed in them,” Trump told Diana. “I have no frustration. I couldn't care less. I didn't need them. But if I ever did need them, they wouldn't be there. And we had a lot of money every year in NATO, so I learned a lot … So did America.” All over? As POLITICO’s Jack Detsch and colleagues report, Trump would have to jump through any number of legal and congressional hoops to actually withdraw the U.S. from NATO, none of which are under serious discussion at this point. There’s “no sign it’s real,” one senior Senate aide tells them. But does that actually matter? NATO has only been effective these past 80 years because enemies never doubted the alliance was rock solid. “With Trump in office, NATO is worthless,” a German official said. “We might have NATO, but we no longer have an alliance.” Lest there was any doubt, a Trump ally close to the White House spelled out the admin’s position on NATO in the most candid way possible to Dasha. “These motherf--kers always talk about Article Five, Article Five, Article Five, Article Five, Article Five. OK, well, Iran has been blowing up our soldiers and ripping their wings off for, you know, half a century, and we finally responded, and now they're f--king going after all our major non-NATO allies and the United States — and you guys are like, not only saying we’re not going to help, you’re closing your airspace to us … Really?” The brave new world: Unsurprisingly, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte will be dashing to D.C. next week for talks with Trump, per Reuters. But the truth is a de facto post-NATO alliance is already starting to form. The U.K. will today host a virtual conference with 35 allied nations to discuss the Hormuz crisis. The group taking part — which includes Europe’s major powers plus Canada, Australia, Japan and others — bears a striking similarity to the “coalition of the willing” that came together to support Ukraine last year. America was not involved in either. But before Trump starts getting excited by today’s summit … don’t expect to see European battleships headed for the strait any time soon. “No Western nation is going to put naval vessels through the Strait of Hormuz against the declared opposition of the Iranians,” Peter Ricketts, the U.K.’s former national security adviser, told the BBC. Instead, he predicted Iran will continue rolling out shipping tolls — and plenty of nations will feel obliged to pay up. Womp womp: Such an outcome would perhaps not be the strategic win Trump was looking for — though the president insists energy-rich America can simply walk away, insulated from any longer-term crisis. Not everyone is convinced. “He’s making it very clear to Iran that he’s desperate to get out,” one war-skeptical Republican close to the White House told POLITICO’s Megan Messerly. “They actually have the leverage now.” Asked whether the war will really be over in two to three weeks, this person replied: “Hell no — Iran gets a vote.” Another war-skeptical Republican told Dasha they were “confused” by the president’s address last night, which neither accelerated the end of the war nor laid the ground for a military invasion. “It didn’t say anything,” a third White House ally complained. “It isn’t going to help with the public. But Mark Levin liked it.” Trump’s most loyal supporters insisted the address was necessary, however, because the president needs to make his case direct to the public. “It was a smart decision to address the American people,” former Trump spokesperson Mercedes Schlapp told Dasha. “The president provided clarity and an update on how close the U.S. military is to completing its objectives.” HAPPY ANNIVERSARY! Trump’s barrage of attacks on Iran — and his verbal attacks on NATO — have overshadowed another noteworthy date: the one-year mark since Trump’s “Liberation Day.” At the time, Trump’s reciprocal tariffs caused the FT’s editorial board to warn of “untold damage on households, businesses and financial markets across the world.” One year on, Europe is a little non-plussed, POLITICO’s EU trade editor Douglas Busvine emails in, having neither retaliated with tariffs nor ratified its U.S. trade deal. “Trump’s tariffs have acted as a net drag on transatlantic trade,” Doug says. “But the bigger problem for the EU has been the glut of Chinese exports turned away by the United States that is now washing up on its shores.” Here in the U.S., Trump’s promises of a manufacturing jobs boom has thus far failed to materialize, POLITICO’s Daniel Desrochers and Sam Sutton report. “Manufacturing payrolls actually declined slightly over the past year,” they write, “with 98,000 fewer jobs year-over-year based on the most recent data … There are 29,900 fewer auto manufacturing jobs and 18,000 fewer wood manufacturing jobs — both sectors the president has tried to protect with trade barriers.” No wonder Dems are seeking to capitalize, with the DNC planning a “Liberation Day” news conference this morning featuring House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. “People may not have known what tariffs were in the past, but absolutely people do now,” Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash), chair of the DCCC, told Playbook’s Ali Bianco. “They see the impact it's having when they go to the grocery store, on housing costs, in their community. We’re going to continue to highlight these issues.” NOW READ THIS — The hidden cost of Liberation Day. Trump’s trade war didn’t just temporarily raise tariffs. It may have permanently broken the global system that lets technologies like Bluetooth work everywhere, writes POLITICO’s Emily Cadei.
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