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By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns |
Presented by |
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With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Dasha discuss whether Republicans’ tax messages are landing … and why even some of President Donald Trump’s closest allies fear he’s been over-confident on Iran.
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Good Wednesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, joining the city-wide chorus urging 40-year-old Caps legend Alex Ovechkin to give it one more year. (Recommended reading for Ovi: “Do not go gentle into that good night”, by Dylan Thomas.) His interview last night looked kinda promising. EXCLUSIVE — THE FUTURE OF POLITICS: Pro-AI super PAC Leading the Future and its affiliated groups raised more than $140 million in contributions and commitments since launching in August of last year, Playbook’s Ali Bianco reports. The haul, shared first with Playbook, underscores the growing financial muscle of one of the most prominent super PAC networks aligned with the AI industry. It’s already begun to pour money into key races and currently has a whopping $100 million in cash on hand. Voice of the Valley: The group boasts support from Silicon Valley heavyweights including OpenAI President Greg Brockman, Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale, venture capitalist Ron Conway, venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz and AI company Perplexity. It’s already spent $1 million on an ad campaign blasting New York state Rep. Alex Bores in the Democratic primary for New York’s 12th Congressional District, and plans to expand its investments in the coming months. Clanker wars: The huge cash sums confirm the nascent AI lobby as one of the biggest political influencers this cycle. But AI-skeptic groups insist politicians pushing for regulation shouldn’t be deterred. They note Bores — who spearheaded new state rules for the industry — received sizable counter-donations from AI safety advocates; and that AI skepticism remains a popular position with the wider public. It’s a struggle we’ll see play out on a larger scale in the months ahead. In today’s Playbook … — Republicans go all-in for Tax Day. — Trump talks up an end to the Iran war. — And why is Grindr throwing a WHCD party? Playbook’s Irie Sentner gave them a call.
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DRIVING THE DAY |
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HAPPY TAX DAY! Brace yourselves: The GOP messaging blitz on tax cuts is going into overdrive. Highlights from your April 15 lineup: Trump’s interview with Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business airs at 6 a.m. … Speaker Mike Johnson holds a tax cuts event on the Capitol steps at 10 a.m. … while inside, IRS chief Frank Bisignano testifies before the Senate, also at 10 a.m. … Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent joins Karoline Leavitt’s White House press briefing at 1 p.m. … … Plus, we’ll see loyal message-carriers like NEC Chair Kevin Hassett speaking at events around D.C., Republican congressional leaders writing opinion pieces with the heads of key business groups, GOP campaigns running a flurry of tax-themed digital ads and plenty more. Taken together, it should be just about sufficient to remind news-addled D.C. politicos to file their tax returns by the end of the day. But will it convince anyone to vote Republican? Don’t hold your breath, says POLITICO’s resident tax guru Bernie Becker, who’s been crunching the numbers on how Republicans’ promises of super-sized refunds this year are stacking up. Falling short: “Refunds haven’t jumped as much as Republicans hoped,” he writes. “GOP officials have continued to talk up the boost this year in refunds, which for weeks now have been around $350 higher than in 2025 — an increase of around 11 percent in all.” But but but, Bernie adds: “Trump and other senior Republicans had laid the groundwork for taxpayers to expect a much bigger check, vowing that refunds would grow by $1,000.”
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Hitting the gas: A bigger problem remains the Iran war, with plenty of analysts predicting sky-high gas prices will cancel out the tax cuts. The AP reported gas price trajectories suggest “the average household would pay $740 more in gas this year, nearly equal to the $748 increase in refunds that the Tax Foundation has estimated the average household will receive.” A separate analysis by Oxford Economics predicts higher gas prices “will cost consumers about $70 billion — more than the $60 billion in increased tax refunds.” So are the tax cuts a bust? Far from it. Several of the measures — including tax breaks for tips and overtime — have proven extremely popular, with takeup way beyond what was expected, pushing Democrats into a tricky spot as they consider whether to maintain them beyond 2028. But that doesn’t mean people are actually happy. A Fox News poll last week found more people are complaining about higher taxes now than at any point in the past 20 years. And of course, survey after survey shows families across America are feeling the pinch. Such is the backdrop as Trump prepares to hit the campaign trail in person, with events in Las Vegas tomorrow and Arizona on Friday. Republicans will be praying he can maintain a little more message discipline than he did at the start of the week, when his attacks on Pope Leo XIV overshadowed a long-planned tax cut PR stunt with a DoorDash employee. MESSAGE DISCIPLINE UPDATE: In Trump’s Truth Social firing line last night — Conservative thinktank the Cato Institute (“hates ‘TRUMP,’ but they can’t hide the facts …”) at 5:19 p.m. … Pope Leo XIV, again (“Will someone please tell Pope Leo that Iran has killed at least 42,000 innocent, completely unarmed, protesters in the last two months …”) at 11:34 p.m. … NATO, again (“NATO wasn’t there for us, and they won’t be there for us in the future!) at 11:39 p.m. … The Biden administration at 12:01 a.m. … D.C. Judge James Boasberg at 12:02 a.m. … and Dem campaigners ActBlue (“The most corrupt group in Government!”), also at 12:02 a.m. Silver lining for Susie: At least the president remembered to promote his Fox Business interview before he went to bed.
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WAR AND PEACE ‘TWO DAYS’ IS THE NEW TWO WEEKS: Further peace talks with Iran are surely in the cards given Trump’s enthusiasm for talking up peace prospects. The president told ABC’s Jonathan Karl last night he doesn’t think he’ll need to extend the ceasefire — which expires next Tuesday — and suggested, again, that the next couple days could be critical. “I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead," Trump said. In a preview clip from today’s Fox interview, Trump told Bartiromo the war is “very close to over.” But people around Trump are getting jumpier by the day. One White House ally tells Dasha they fear the president simply got over-confident in his ability to pull off impossible-looking plays. “People knew that Iran could do this, right? People told the president this,” the person said regarding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. “But I think he has this belief in his invincibility that he somehow can always defy the odds. And he does, a lot of times. He really does. But it doesn't always translate. And it’s not translating in this case.” U.S. allies share the same concerns. “European countries are putting together a plan for a broad coalition of countries to help free up shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, including sending mine-clearing and other military vessels,” WSJ’s Max Colchester and colleagues report in a preview of Friday’s “Hormuz summit” in Paris. “But the plan would only come after the war and may exclude one country in particular: the U.S.” WAR ON THE FLOOR: Back in D.C., the Senate will hold another war powers resolution vote this afternoon — but don’t expect anything different from previous rounds. Republicans are still standing behind the president, POLITICO’s Leo Shane III and Connor O'Brien report. Worth watching: Several top admin officials will be at the Capitol today and are sure to be grilled on the six-week war. U.N. Ambassador Mike Waltz will face the Senate Foreign Relations Committee at 10 a.m., OMB Director Russ Vought will testify before the House Budget Committee on the White House’s budget request — which includes another hefty increase in defense spending — at 10:15 a.m., while Energy Secretary Chris Wright will take questions from the House Appropriations subcommittee that handles energy at 2 p.m.
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HOT ON THE HILL FLOTUS FILES: First lady Melania Trump has her first public event today since last week’s dramatic press statement on the Epstein saga. She will make a rare appearance on Capitol Hill this afternoon for a roundtable discussion on fostering with members of the House Ways and Means Committee. Hill journos will be piling in at 2 p.m. in the hope she takes questions. THE FISA FUROR: Speaker Mike Johnson is figuring out how to move forward with a clean, 18-month extension of FISA’s Section 702 as several Republicans plan to vote against advancing the bill today, POLITICO’s Mia McCarthy and Meredith Lee Hill report. House GOP leaders appear more open to discussing hard-liner’s demands for an amendment to restrict warrantless surveillance involving Americans. In exchange, House GOP leaders are pushing for a longer extension. Republicans are simultaneously starting to talk about a much shorter clean extension — possibly a few months — to punt the deadline as negotiations continue. More in POLITICO’s Inside Congress RECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES: Senate Republicans are set to advance immigration enforcement funding totaling $65 billion to $75 billion next week, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney, Jennifer Scholtes and Katherine Tully-McManus report. “The bill’s topline was in the range of what Republicans had been telegraphing over the past week but could spark pushback from at least one fiscal hawk — Senate Homeland Security Chair Rand Paul — because it’s higher than the roughly $50 billion it would cost to fund immigration enforcement at current levels for three years.” WAITING GAME: Following the scandal-driven resignations of Reps. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) and Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), all eyes are on Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.), who’s been under scrutiny for months for allegedly breaking campaign finance rules and threatening to release nude videos of an ex. But the House ethics purge is poised to spare Mills — for now, POLITICO’s Riley Rogerson and Hailey Fuchs reports. Key leaders and rank-and-file members from both parties said they would wait for the conclusion of an active House Ethics Committee investigation into Mills before moving to punish him. WORLD CUP WATCH: Homeland security officials will be among those giving testimony today on the U.S. government’s preparedness for this summer’s FIFA World Cup. The Athletic reported that top FIFA officials including Trump’s pal Gianni Infantino have discussed asking Trump for a full moratorium on ICE raids for the duration of the monthlong tournament.
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TRAIL MIX CASH DASH: Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) ended the first quarter of 2026 with a massive $22.3 million cash on hand in his campaign account, Playbook’s Adam Wren scoops. The sum — likely to only stir more speculation about his presidential ambitions — comes after raising more than $13 million during the same period. He raised an additional $470,000 for his leadership PAC and $1.1 million for the DNC in 2026. In the first quarter, his campaign and leadership PAC transferred $105,000 to the DSCC and made direct contributions to six candidates, including James Talarico, Julianna Stratton and Mary Peltola. AD WARS: RJC Victory Fund is upping its ad buy in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District to $3.5 million as it aims to boost Trump-backed Ed Gallrein against frequent Trump critic Rep. Thomas Massie. The group is placing a $500,000 buy today that will make it the biggest outside group spending in the race to date, POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky scoops. The group already ran five ads promoting Gallrein and plans more before the May 19 primary. GEORGIA ON MY MIND: “How 1 GOP billionaire is upending Georgia politics,” by POLITICO’s Alec Hernandez in Homer, Georgia: “As [Rick] Jackson has upended the governor’s race, he’s also taking up so much of voters’ attention that Georgia Republicans in other races are worried about their own chances of breaking through. Voters and strategists alike say they just can’t avoid Jackson’s presence anywhere, not even at home. His media blitz is alarming fellow Republicans, half a dozen of whom told POLITICO that Jackson is endangering Republicans in down ballot races — and a critical Senate contest — that will likely be decided by razor-thin margins.” REDISTRICTING WARS HIT A SNAG: “Florida's planned special session on redistricting just got a bit murkier,” by POLITICO’s Gary Fineout: “Gov. Ron DeSantis acknowledged Tuesday that next week’s special session on mid-decade redistricting may not kick off on its scheduled April 20 start date — but he contended the Legislature will pass a new map on congressional redistricting in the next ‘couple of weeks.’”
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TALK OF THE TOWN |
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GRINDR’S HOSTING — The buzziest party of this year’s White House Correspondents’ Weekend is Grindr’s inaugural soiree, which the gay “dating” app is throwing in a massive Georgetown mansion on Friday, April 24. Playbook’s Irie Sentner caught up with Joe Hack, Grindr’s top lobbyist, for a sneak preview. What can we expect? “It's gonna be beautiful. My flower budget is robust, so expect some beautiful florals. It's going to be delicious. We're gonna have some great food. It's going to be fun. It's going to be a little bit cheeky — it's going to be us.” What's the message you’re trying to send in Washington right now? “We are in the business of making connections and bringing people together, and no matter what side you're on, it's been a particularly weighty time, and I think there's a real desire for some joy and for some escape and for some fun. And I think there's nobody better to do that. Let us throw a party and come on over.” How many people have RSVP’d? “We had to close the list [yesterday]. The interest level is sort of insane and we are at capacity.” Any VIPs on the guest list? Can we expect to see any admin officials? “I will just say there’s very high level people from both sides that have expressed interest, and we’ll see if they come.” SCOOP — Alex Bruesewitz has acquired full ownership of X Strategies in a multimillion-dollar deal, according to sources familiar with the transaction, POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman reports. Sources close to Bruesewitz say the acquisition gives him complete control over the firm’s future direction, and that he plans to make further investments in the conservative media and digital space in the coming months. A central force in the MAGA digital ecosystem, X Strategies manages key Trump accounts including @TrumpWarRoom on X and the @TeamTrump accounts on TikTok, Instagram and Facebook. The firm also represents a strong roster of Washington clients, including Sen. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) and Lance Gooden (R-Texas) and others. OVERSHARING — “D.C. delegate race erupts as Pinto posts dossier on rival White,” by WaPo’s Jenny Gathright: “The race to succeed D.C. Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D) in Congress took a bitter turn … when a Democratic candidate posted a 67-page dossier of opposition research on one of her main rivals that included his home address and personal information about his family. … Now Robert C. White Jr., the subject of the report, has asked fellow D.C. Council member Brooke Pinto to withdraw from the race, calling the release of information about his family a ‘blatant violation of basic decency.’” MORE POTOMAC PERIL — “Potomac River tops list of country’s most endangered rivers,” by WaPo’s Dana Hedgpeth: “The report published Tuesday by American Rivers, in conjunction with the Potomac Riverkeeper Network and Nature Forward conservation and environmental groups, cautioned that the river supplying drinking water for 5 million people in Maryland, Virginia and D.C. could be in danger of reaching ‘an inflection point.’” OUT AND ABOUT — Semafor hosted its America 250 Global CEO Dinner as part of its World Economy gathering at the Mellon Auditorium yesterday evening, featuring interviews with Michael Dell, Chuck Robbins and José Muñoz. SPOTTED: Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Jon Husted (R-Ohio), Reps. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Mike Haridopolos (R-Fla.), Sriram Krishnan, Singaporean Ambassador Lui Tuck Yew, Bret Baier, Mark Ein, Hank Paulson, Henry Kravis, David Rubenstein, Patrice Louvet, Justin Smith, Ben Smith, Robert Allbritton, Penny Pritzker, Steve Rattner, Rachel Levitan Keidan, Patrick Steel, Yinka Adegoke, Dan Schulman, Shelby Talcott, Eleanor Mueller, Max Tani, Imran Amed, Shelly Banjo, Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson and Nicholas Wu. MEDIA MOVES — Mike Zapler is joining Axios as a senior editor. He previously was influence editor at POLITICO. … Hugo Lowell is joining Wired as a senior correspondent on the politics desk and will take over the magazine’s politics newsletter. He most recently worked for The Guardian. … Jesse Byrnes is joining Bloomberg Industry Group as a deputy team lead. He previously worked at The Hill. TRANSITIONS — Former Rep. Will Hurd (R-Texas) has been named president of Icon Prime, a new government division of the 3D printing and robotics company. … Bernadette Breslin is now national press secretary for the NRSC. She previously worked for Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and is a Josh Hawley and John Kennedy alum. … Guillermo “Billy” Godoy is joining Microsoft as director of congressional affairs. He previously worked for General Motors. … … Jade Floyd is now EVP at Bryson Gillette. She previously worked at Global Strategy Group. … Kevin Dowling is now EVP at the Affordable Housing Tax Credit Coalition. He previously worked at 3M and is a Lee Zeldin and Venn Strategies alum. … Darci Vetter is now VP of public affairs at Driscoll’s. She previously worked at the Office of the USTR. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Former Reps. Colin Allred (D-Texas) and Howard Berman (D-Calif.) … The Hill’s Amie Parnes … Leslie Shedd of Rising Communications … POLITICO’s Liz McCormick and Devyn Rorie … Rishi Banerjee … Lisbeth Lyons Black of Women in Print Alliance … Dana Gansman … Nina Rees of the George W. Bush Presidential Center … Bloomberg’s John Harney and Suzanne Lynch … Alex Miller Murphy … Cheyenne Hopkins … Jaimey Sexton … SEC Newgate’s Cara Rich … Troy Endicott … Ascent’s Cody Hall … Kate Bernard … Pat Devney … Sarah Bloom Raskin … Pete Rouse … Ray Locker … Mary O’Driscoll … Robyn Swirling … Tom Rosenstiel … Henry Kull of Rep. Nathaniel Moran’s (R-Texas) office … Scotti Williston … Patrick Henry of House Small Business … Herald Group’s Coleman Martinson … Max Fenkell of Scale AI Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.
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