| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and POLITICO’s diplomatic correspondent Felicia Schwartz discuss the huge global fallout from Donald Trump’s war on Iran.
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| Good Monday morning. This is Jack Blanchard. We made it: Spring is in the air, with temperatures in D.C. due to hit 70 degrees this afternoon. Enjoy every minute you can. Get in touch. AND NO BETTER WAY TO START THE DAY … than with a buzzy new JMart column on Kamala Harris. “Harris plainly wants to keep open the option of running for president again in 2028,” Jonathan writes. “Somebody finished with Democratic politics wouldn’t have responded to camera when Trump attacked Iran; wouldn’t have returned the favor for one of her 2020 campaign co-chairs by wading into the Texas Senate primary to support Rep. Jasmine Crockett; and she wouldn’t have recently brought one of her top aides from the 2024 race, Brian Fallon, back to her circle in a more formalized fashion.” But here’s the problem: How many prominent Democrats actually want her to run? “Conversations with a range of moderate Democrats at a conference put on by the centrist group Third Way last week revealed Harris to be a political non-entity,” JMart writes. “She’s leading in seemingly every early survey, but few elected officials, strategists or activists volunteered her name when discussing 2028.” Read the full story In today’s Playbook … — Trump’s war starts global tremors as oil hits $120-a-gallon. — Republicans get the affordability yips as Trump addresses policy retreat. — And the year’s biggest political movie — maybe — hits the small screen today.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | A WORLD TRANSFORMED: Ten days in and Trump’s war on Iran is causing ructions far beyond the Middle East. The fallout from the president’s military operation is sending shockwaves through the global economy and causing diplomatic frictions around the world. Oil be damned: Energy prices are dominating headlines this morning after the price of crude oil smashed through the totemic $100-a-barrel barrier, hitting almost $120-a-barrel at one point last night. The domestic implications in the U.S. are huge, with experts predicting we may see $4 and perhaps $5-a-gallon gas prices within weeks. And this in a country where the cost of living is already the hottest political issue in a midterm year. Oil prices may have further to go, POLITICO’s oil and gas editor Ben Lefebvre told Playbook in an email last night. (Ben broke the agenda-setting story last Thursday about the mounting White House panic over the price of gas.) “Analysts are now expecting the price to hit $150,” Ben writes, “with some seeing $200 as a distinct possibility.” $200 a barrel? “It’s not hard to see why,” Ben shrugs. “A full 20 percent of the world’s crude supply has been all but frozen, making this the largest oil disruption in market history.” G7 economy ministers may respond today with the joint release of emergency oil reserves, per the FT. There’s a joint call scheduled for 9:30 a.m. Eastern, and prices began to fall overnight after news of the plan leaked. They’d better act fast. “Market analysts are now debating whether this is merely very bad or potentially catastrophic for the global economy,” Ben writes. “Higher crude prices will filter to consumers quickly via gasoline prices, and then more slowly through increased prices for the freight charge to deliver pretty much everything. This doesn’t even account for a likely rise in grocery prices as synthetic fertilizer costs start to rise.” You hardly need Playbook to tell you how toxic a rise in grocery prices would be. The WSJ pitches it as “the most severe shock to energy markets since the 1970s.” And remember: It’s not just the U.S. being impacted. Plenty of countries are even more vulnerable than America to an oil price shock, with big knock-on effects looming for their own economies. In Japan, which heavily relies on imported energy, the Nikkei stock market tumbled roughly 7 percent on opening last night, one of the biggest drops on record. In neighboring South Korea, trading was suspended after 20 minutes to avoid an economic crash. Dow futures fell too, so keep an eye on America’s own markets when trading opens this morning.
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Learn more. | | | | The big question: Iran’s strategy has been to make this war so painful for America that Trump calls an early end to the operation. The Trump administration insists that won’t work, with messaging focused on restoring calm and an insistence the price spike is only temporary. It’s a message we heard repeatedly yesterday, from Energy Secretary Chris Wright on CNN’s “State of the Union” to White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Fox News and even Trump himself on Truth Social last night. Getting the yips? Nevertheless, the administration was deeply unhappy to see Israel targeting Iranian energy infrastructure over the weekend, Axios’ Barak Ravid reports. Even Sen. Lindsey Graham — Trump’s hawkish golf buddy — urged Israel to rein it in last night. It’s a message Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will surely take with them when they meet Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu tomorrow (h/t Ravid.) Beyond the economic fallout, the diplomatic repercussions of the past 10 days have been huge. China — which enjoyed a loose alliance with the Iranian regime — is clearly unsettled by the global instability, and especially the impact on energy supplies and shipping lanes. "It is a war that does no one any good,” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi complained yesterday. “The history of the Middle East tells the world time and again that force provides no solution.” Trump, remember, travels to Beijing to meet President Xi Jinping at the end of this month. In Europe, the war has created a crisis for America's traditional allies, who remain committed to post-WWII international norms. European governments are unconvinced about the legality of Trump’s actions and concerned by the lack of long-term strategy. But now every Western leader has been plunged into a binary with-us-or-against-us moment by their ally in the White House. Not-so-special relationship: The biggest hit so far has been to U.S.-U.K. relations, with Trump taking umbrage at PM Keir Starmer’s initial refusal to grant permission for joint Anglo-American airbases to be used for bombing raids. Although the decision was quickly reversed, Trump hasn’t forgotten. In a Truth Social post on Saturday Trump referred cuttingly to Britain as “our once Great Ally.” Starmer attempted to build bridges in a 20-minute phone call with Trump yesterday. U.S. relations with Spain slumped even lower, with Trump threatening a full trade war with Madrid after socialist PM Pedro Sánchez said the U.S. could not use its air bases at all for this war. Their relationship was already in dire straits after Spain became the only NATO member to refuse Trump’s demand that all allies spend 5 percent of GDP on defense. French President Emmanuel Macron has so far avoided Trump's public wrath, despite his own opposition to the war. “The French leader has been much more subtle,” Brussels Playbook author Nick Vinocur notes via email, “only saying after several days that the strikes had taken place ‘outside the frame of international law.’” U.S. relations with Germany and Canada are better still, with neither Chancellor Friedrich Merz nor PM Mark Carney having publicly attacked the war — though both have taken flak at home as a result.
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| | | | But the big winner in Europe appears to be Russia. Sanctions on Russian oil have been suspended just as the oil price goes through the roof, potentially giving Vladimir Putin a much-needed financial windfall for his illegal war machine. The Iran conflict is also pulling attention and — more importantly — weapons away from the Ukraine battlefront as America focuses elsewhere. More from AP’s Vladimir Isachenkov in Moscow Ukraine has tried to respond with a diplomatic push of its own, offering assistance to the U.S. and its Middle East allies with tackling Iran’s Shahed drones — which have been used extensively by Moscow. But the diplomatic benefit has been minimal. In his phone interview with Dasha last week, Trump was still blaming Volodymyr Zelenskyy for the ongoing Ukraine war. LATEST FROM THE MIDDLE EAST: Iran confirmed its new Supreme Leader will be Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the former Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in U.S. air strikes. … Another American service member has died in the war, the Pentagon said, bringing the number of American troops killed in the conflict to seven. The unnamed soldier was seriously injured in strikes on Saudi Arabia on March 1, NYT reports. AND FINALLY: Has Trump lost his appetite for further wars? USA Today’s Francesca Chambers reports the Trump administration is close to a surprise economic deal with Cuba. “Discussions have included an offramp for President Miguel Díaz-Canel, the Castro family remaining on the island and deals on ports, energy and tourism,” she writes. “The U.S. government has floated dropping some sanctions.”
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| | | | MEANWHILE IN FLORIDA THE VIEW FROM DORAL: You can expect the surging price of oil — and broader concerns about the war’s political impact — to be on House Republicans’ minds as they gather in Florida today for their annual policy retreat, where Trump will address the caucus in a speech at 5 p.m. (Also on the docket to speak this week: James Blair, Chris LaCivita, Kevin Hassett, Scott Jennings and Ben Shapiro, along with committee chairs and party leaders.) Midterm fears over the cost of living were already bearing down on Republicans, even before the newly acute worries about pain at the pump. (Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer yesterday called for Trump to tap the country’s strategic reserve of oil, which the president has resisted.) There are few worse political curveballs for Republicans than surging gas prices and international chaos in an election year, though November is still far away. What the House GOP will focus on: A tense fight over whether Republicans should attempt another partisan reconciliation bill tops the legislative debate for the retreat, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill and Mia McCarthy preview from Doral this morning. Some Republicans see reconciliation as the best venue to take action on housing, health care and energy costs. But it would face a difficult path in the House given Speaker Mike Johnson’s increasingly restive and narrow majority — let alone the Senate. The Trump-size distraction: Trump vowed yesterday that he won’t sign any bills into law until the SAVE America Act, Republicans’ sweeping package of voting restrictions that looks doomed in the Senate, passes. He also demanded new limits on mail voting and, for good measure, gender transition-related care for minors. The list of other major legislation that will compete for attention from House Republicans is long: housing, cryptocurrency regulation, the farm bill, health care, a stock trading ban, energy permitting and a highway bill. More from POLITICO’s Inside Congress And — oh yeah — the government shutdown. The shuttering of DHS, now in its third week, has mostly flown under the radar. But that may be changing, starting with the nation’s airports: Absences from unpaid TSA workers led to ballooning spring-break security lines in Houston, New Orleans and elsewhere yesterday, per Reuters. Houston’s Hobby Airport advised travelers to show up four to five hours before their flights This is the kind of upheaval that can dislodge a political stalemate.
| | | | POLITICO Policy Outlook: Powering 6G The next generation of mobile communications technology — commonly known as 6G — promises to unlock a bold new digital future. On Wednesday, March 18, POLITICO will convene decision makers from government and industry for incisive conversations that explore what’s next for the 6G rollout — and what stands in the way. Register now to join us. | | | | | BEST OF THE REST JUDICIARY SQUARE: The Chamber of Commerce’s lawsuit over Trump’s $100,000 H-1B visa fee heads to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals for oral arguments this morning, after a lower-court federal judge sided with Trump late last year. SCARY STUFF: The FBI is investigating possible terrorism as NYC police said yesterday that a device thrown at far-right protester Jake Lang on Saturday was a real, operational improvised explosive device, per the N.Y. Daily News’ Rocco Parascandola and colleagues. The incident happened at Lang’s chaotic anti-Muslim rally outside NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s residence at Gracie Mansion, and Emir Balat and Ibrahim Kayumi have been arrested. Mamdani condemned both the protest’s bigotry and the “even more disturbing” counterprotester violence. More fear abroad: Norway is investigating a “targeted” explosion outside the U.S. Embassy in Oslo to see whether it’s connected to the war with Iran, per Bloomberg. THE LATEST FIRING: Trump’s White House suddenly fired National Transportation Safety Board member Todd Inman, he said, without providing an explanation. More from The Air Current KNIVES OUT (AGAIN) FOR KEN MARTIN: “Ken Martin’s dysfunctional DNC alarms Democrats,” by Axios’ Alex Thompson and Holly Otterbein: “Donors, operatives and some DNC members are questioning his leadership, fundraising ability and handling of the party’s still-secret ‘autopsy’ of the 2024 election loss. … It’s not just the usual DNC critics — Martin’s allies and would-be allies who want him to succeed say they’re increasingly worried and believe he hasn’t created space for candid feedback and a course correction. … Many Democrats agree on one thing — the DNC chair’s first priority is fundraising, and Martin is falling short on that.” A DNC flack responds: “Winning now, in 2028, and for years to come is the DNC’s North Star. Anything else is just gossip and noise.” BRAVE NEW WORLD: “Bobby Rush’s voice gets AI boost in Jesse Jackson Jr. campaign ad,” by POLITICO’s Shia Kapos: “The spot, set to begin airing today in the race, initially shows Rush speaking in his actual voice, weakened from a battle with throat cancer. ‘Cancer damaged my vocal cords. It didn’t take away my voice,’ Rush says in the ad. He then continues speaking in a restored version of the voice he had decades ago.” Watch the ad
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Learn more. | | | | KNOWING ANDREW FERGUSON: “This Law Enforcer Is Rewriting the Playbook for Policing Companies in Trump 2.0,” by WSJ’s Dave Michaels and Emily Glazer: The FTC chair “has found the formula for antitrust enforcement in the MAGA era: Mix a series of mainstream cases against big business with warning shots at liberal interests and critics of President Trump’s agenda. … He has leaned in to novel fraud and antitrust theories to pursue right-wing targets like diversity, equity and inclusion programs, transgender healthcare, and media censorship and bias. The president is taking notice.” BEHIND THE MAHA ROUNDUP DEBATE: “A Trump Order Protected a Weedkiller. And Also a Weapon of War,” by NYT’s Hiroko Tabuchi: “Concerns about the availability of [white] phosphorus for defense played a significant role in Mr. Trump’s move to deem Bayer’s operations [including the production of glyphosate] a national security priority.” BIG JOINT INVESTIGATION: “‘The biggest cover-up of my adult life’: Inside the CIA’s attempt to make Havana Syndrome disappear,” by The Insider’s Michael Weiss … “Former CIA officer criticizes the agency’s investigation into Havana Syndrome,” by CBS’ Scott Pelley and colleagues for “60 Minutes” POLITICO CONVENES LEADERS IN ALBANY: On Wednesday, POLITICO will convene New York policy and political leaders for the first Albany Summit. The New York capital sets a policy agenda that ripples far beyond the state’s borders, and in the weeks ahead state leaders will have to address significant issues as they face pivotal budget and legislative decisions. Key speakers include: State Assembly Minority Leader Ed Ra (R), State Sen. Jeremy Cooney (D), State Sen. Gustavo Rivera (D), State Assemblymember Linda Rosenthal (D), and more. Doors open at 8:30 a.m., and you can register here to attend in-person or watch the livestream
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➡️ Get on the Invite List | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | CLEAR YOUR SCHEDULES — First lady Melania Trump’s eponymous “Melania” documentary is now streaming (on Amazon Prime Video, of course) as of today. PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — Step aside, Melania. The latest D.C.-area star is a rare red-flanked bluetail. The diminutive Asian bird has been spotted in Great Falls Park in recent months — only the second time ever this species has been seen east of the Rockies, WaPo’s Dana Hedgpeth reports. The bird showing up in Virginia “has rocked the world of birding and made it an internet sensation,” drawing birding crowds from across the country. WHAT’S IN A NAME — “Trump Org Files Trademarks to Put the President’s Name Front and Center at America’s 250th,” by NOTUS’ Amelia Benavides-Colón and Dave Levinthal: “In one filing submitted on Friday, a ‘Trump 250’ image was trademarked to be used on a variety of merchandise — including bumper stickers, tote bags, drinkware, clothing items and golf balls. A wordmark application was also submitted for the name ‘Trump 250.’” IN MEMORIAM — “Bernard LaFayette, Selma voting rights organizer, dies at 85,” by AP’s Travis Loller: He “did the risky groundwork for the voter registration campaign in Selma, Alabama, that culminated in the passage of the Voting Rights Act of 1965.” — “‘Country’ Joe McDonald, ‘60s rock star, proud protest counterculture icon, dies at 84,” by AP’s Hillel Italie: His “‘I-Feel-Like-I’m-Fixin’-To-Die Rag’ was a four-lettered rebuke to the Vietnam War that became an anthem for protesters.” TRANSITIONS — Brooke Brower is now director of the Democracy Reform Primer Series at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Government and Policy, working with the University of Chicago’s Center for Effective Government on a national dialogue about changes to the political system. She previously was executive producer of ABC’s “This Week.” … Becca Siegel is joining the Center for American Progress Action Fund as its first chief insights officer, leading the polling and analytics program and electoral campaign activity. She previously worked for the Harris and Biden campaigns and is a White House alum. … … Venture Government Strategies has added Ryann Kinney as a VP and Hannah So as a director. Kinney most recently worked for House Appropriations ranking member Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.). So most recently worked for Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Fla.). … Danielle Zimmerman is now legislative liaison for Wisconsin’s Department of Military Affairs. She previously worked for Wisconsin state Rep. Tony Kurtz. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) and Russ Fulcher (R-Idaho) … Raj Shah of the Rockefeller Foundation … NDRC’s John Bisognano … Tiffany Muller … Andrew Rafferty … Jake Lipsett … POLITICO’s Adam Aton … Leah Nylen … Warren Rojas … NBC’s Doug Adams … Spencer Thibodeau … Katie Schoettler … Haley Sweetland Edwards … Tom Matzzie … GM’s Reagan Payne Wicker … Harry Fones … Meta’s David Ginsberg … Bailey Mailloux … Lauren Cozzi … Ryan Diffley … Russell Drapkin … Tony Harrington … Didem Nisanci … Bianca Padró Ocasio … Sadie Weiner … David Hume Kennerly … Kimberly Guilfoyle … Charlie Gibson … Michael Kinsley … Sarah Swinehart Massey … Linnaea Honl-Stuenkel ... Graham Brookie ... Stefani Jones … National Association of Manufacturers’ Fred Williams … Laura Bamford … Margaret Carlson … Darrell Walker Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.
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